Looking at stat rankings it may boil down to

#1
Other_Guy

Other_Guy

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#1
3rd down conversions. Since I haven't seen Indiana play and don't know anything about them I decided to look at my score app for the difference in matchup.
As solid as UT has been on 3rd downs (43%, ranked 33rd) Indiana is ranked 12th nationally at 48%.
Now, you may not be interested in Indiana's 31st ranked total offense, or the fact they're averaging 8 more points a game, citing how well UT's defense is playing. However, they are 5th in the country in TOP, holding the ball a solid 5 minutes longer than UT.
Also, while their defense doesn't rank as well as UT's, they're still only allowing 3 points per game more, which doesn't bode well for a Vols squad that struggles mightily in the redzone (also points to 3rd down conversions).
So someone who actually knows anything about Indiana football may come on here and say otherwise, but just glancing at those rankings I was surprised that another 8-4 team was pretty good at 3rd down conversions.
Edit: Indiana is 8-4
 
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#6
#6
Boca Vol said:
This game will boil down to, as with most bowls, which teams gives an ish about being there.
Click to expand...

I think both teams will care in this one.

I think Bama will lose because they don’t care since not the playoffs.
 
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#7
#7
Other_Guy said:
3rd down conversions. Since I haven't seen Indiana play and don't know anything about them I decided to look at my score app for the difference in matchup.
As solid as UT has been on 3rd downs (43%, ranked 33rd) Indiana is ranked 12th nationally at 48%.
Now, you may not be interested in Indiana's 31st ranked total offense, or the fact they're averaging 8 more points a game, citing how well UT's defense is playing. However, they are 5th in the country in TOP, holding the ball a solid 5 minutes longer than UT.
Also, while their defense doesn't rank as well as UT's, they're still only allowing 3 points per game more, which doesn't bode well for a Vols squad that struggles mightily in the redzone (also points to 3rd down conversions).
So someone who actually knows anything about Indiana football may come on here and say otherwise, but just glancing at those rankings I was surprised that another 8-4 team was pretty good at 3rd down conversions.
Edit: Indiana is 8-4
Click to expand...
Thanks, but remember. "There are lies, damned lies and statistics." UAB had impressive stats too and we all saw how that played out. We're going to win the game and it probably won't be close.
 
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#8
#8
Looking at the game results, it appears when IU faces comparable, or lesser talent they do well on both sides of the ball (Maryland, Rutgers) but when facing superior talent and they get behind they get run out of the stadium. Let’s hope we come out strong.
I imagine Chaney will look at the defense and lick his chops
 
#9
#9
They beat no one with a winning record at the end of the season. I think if we don’t turn the ball over we win this easily.
 
#11
#11
LexVol71 said:
Thanks, but remember. "There are lies, damned lies and statistics." UAB had impressive stats too and we all saw how that played out. We're going to win the game and it probably won't be close.
Click to expand...

Indiana and UAB aren't even comparable.

Sagarin has UAB at #107. Indiana is at #40; 4 spots below Tennessee.
 
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#15
#15
LexVol71 said:
Thanks, but remember. "There are lies, damned lies and statistics." UAB had impressive stats too and we all saw how that played out. We're going to win the game and it probably won't be close.
Click to expand...
No offense, but that's a terrible argument. UAB plays in CUSA and Indiana has had to play some really good teams.
GUARANTEE you that their fans are looking at Tenn's schedule and are not impressed with barely beating Mizz and UK, and lackluster win vs Vandy......... or a lose to GSU.
 
#16
#16
Other_Guy said:
No offense, but that's a terrible argument. UAB plays in CUSA and Indiana has had to play some really good teams.
GUARANTEE you that their fans are looking at Tenn's schedule and are not impressed with barely beating Mizz and UK, and lackluster win vs Vandy......... or a lose to GSU.
Click to expand...
Do a comparison of Indiana's opponents win/loss vs UTs
 
#18
#18
Every team Indiana beat had a losing record. Their signature win was against a 5-7 Nebraska. Their QB is better than UT's and that battle will decide the game.
 
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#20
#20
Wireless1 said:
Looking at the game results, it appears when IU faces comparable, or lesser talent they do well on both sides of the ball (Maryland, Rutgers) but when facing superior talent and they get behind they get run out of the stadium. Let’s hope we come out strong.
I imagine Chaney will look at the defense and lick his chops
Click to expand...

I also think our CBs and safeties are going to show big time. Could see six picks among them. Three and possibly four going for sixes. Now, talk about an anomaly, this will be one for the ages. The Tennessee Thieves Tax the Hooisers and Slay Their Gator.
 
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#21
#21
Other_Guy said:
3rd down conversions. Since I haven't seen Indiana play and don't know anything about them I decided to look at my score app for the difference in matchup.
As solid as UT has been on 3rd downs (43%, ranked 33rd) Indiana is ranked 12th nationally at 48%.
Now, you may not be interested in Indiana's 31st ranked total offense, or the fact they're averaging 8 more points a game, citing how well UT's defense is playing. However, they are 5th in the country in TOP, holding the ball a solid 5 minutes longer than UT.
Also, while their defense doesn't rank as well as UT's, they're still only allowing 3 points per game more, which doesn't bode well for a Vols squad that struggles mightily in the redzone (also points to 3rd down conversions).
So someone who actually knows anything about Indiana football may come on here and say otherwise, but just glancing at those rankings I was surprised that another 8-4 team was pretty good at 3rd down conversions.
Edit: Indiana is 8-4
Click to expand...
I saw all of this too. But really you have to parse their stats to make anything out of them. They played only 3 teams with a winning record plus Mich St who went 6-6. They lost to all of those teams. They were thumped pretty hard at home by a pretty middling Michigan team. Their best game of the season was probably their loss to PSU. I think the average number of wins of the teams they beat was around 3.

They're a better IU team than IU teams used to be. But honestly this is an uninspiring opponent for UT... and that may be the greatest danger.

They do some interesting things on O. They really like screens. Their completion % is skewed pretty badly by the number of passes they complete behind the LOS. But they do block those plays well. It helps them manage down and distance. The key to beating them on 3rd down is to bust up those screens on 1st or 2nd down. I think those screens are partly to compensate for an OL that doesn't hold up that well when they need to throw down field. Speed kills screens. Press man kills screens. By my estimation UT will be no worse than the 3rd fast team they've played. Probably 2nd behind OSU. They have a TE who is a really good player. He's got decent speed and is usually good for 6+ yards on the outside screen they run. UT will have to find someone who matches up well with him.
 
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#22
#22
Other_Guy said:
3rd down conversions. Since I haven't seen Indiana play and don't know anything about them I decided to look at my score app for the difference in matchup.
As solid as UT has been on 3rd downs (43%, ranked 33rd) Indiana is ranked 12th nationally at 48%.
Now, you may not be interested in Indiana's 31st ranked total offense, or the fact they're averaging 8 more points a game, citing how well UT's defense is playing. However, they are 5th in the country in TOP, holding the ball a solid 5 minutes longer than UT.
Also, while their defense doesn't rank as well as UT's, they're still only allowing 3 points per game more, which doesn't bode well for a Vols squad that struggles mightily in the redzone (also points to 3rd down conversions).
So someone who actually knows anything about Indiana football may come on here and say otherwise, but just glancing at those rankings I was surprised that another 8-4 team was pretty good at 3rd down conversions.
Edit: Indiana is 8-4
Click to expand...

Question;

If one team is trying to convert 10 3rd down plays from 2-3 yds, and the other team is trying to convert 5 3rd down plays from 5-8 yds. which team do you expect will have the better numbers? (converts and/or %) I am not trying to argue with what you have found, just wonder about the situations that created the results you found.
 
#24
#24
sjt18 said:
I saw all of this too. But really you have to parse their stats to make anything out of them. They played only 3 teams with a winning record plus Mich St who went 6-6. They lost to all of those teams. They were thumped pretty hard at home by a pretty middling Michigan team. Their best game of the season was probably their loss to PSU. I think the average number of wins of the teams they beat was around 3.

They're a better IU team than IU teams used to be. But honestly this is an uninspiring opponent for UT... and that may be the greatest danger.

They do some interesting things on O. They really like screens. Their completion % is skewed pretty badly by the number of passes they complete behind the LOS. But they do block those plays well. It helps them manage down and distance. The key to beating them on 3rd down is to bust up those screens on 1st or 2nd down. I think those screens are partly to compensate for an OL that doesn't hold up that well when they need to throw down field. Speed kills screens. Press man kills screens. By my estimation UT will be no worse than the 3rd fast team they've played. Probably 2nd behind OSU. They have a TE who is a really good player. He's got decent speed and is usually good for 6+ yards on the outside screen they run. UT will have to find someone who matches up well with him.
Click to expand...

Really good insights. It's refreshing to have sensible information among the gibberish.
 
#25
#25
saw them a couple times...good and bad...we should win, but this is a bowl game and anything can happen...got to rattle the QB early...they have a good coaching staff...and,

GO BIG ORANGE...BEAT THE HOOSIERS!
 
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