tastycar
I officially throw in the towel
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Finebaum Now
- Thread starter OL SMOKEY
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Sure...Brame, Bushway, Paternoster, and Turner in the journal Crime and Delinquency, 2014 Apr; 60(3): 471-486. Abstract and article are online.
I didn't believe it either, but found a Rand Corporation article (2019, Younger Americans Much More Likely to Have Been Arrested Than Previous Generations) that puts it in context. Percent arrested at least once before age 26 (stat includes males and females): Born pre-1949 - 6.4%; Born 1959-1968 - 13.8% (sounds about right for my generation); Born 1979-1988 - 23.0%.
UT should expect better from its students and much better from its student athletes, who are the most visible school representatives. But, expecting zero problems from a large group of 18-22 year old men is not realistic.
One, we are not recruiting 23 year olds (maybe once in a blue moon), two if you read the articles, you will find they are based on simple subtraction-not worthless, but close. For example, from a pop of 10,000 young men, prior to them reaching 18 years of age, there were 1000 arrests, based on these numbers this population of young men had a 10% CHANCE of being arrested prior to reaching 18. It fails miserably when one asked what about those arrested Multiple times? It only counts the total number of arrests, each one is therefore assigned to a number 1-10,000, and no number has more than one arrest. In Real life, those getting arrested-or better being taken into custody by the police, often start at a fairly early age. It is not uncommon for a juvenile to have been taken into custody 20-30 times prior to their 18th birthday. These facts totally skew the results. Those writing these "studies" know this, and they know it on the front end. Many (many) of these studies are funded by liberal, anti police, organizations, with a political bias expected, prior to their funding of the "study". Sadly, in todays world Academia, must find funding for research, if those doing the research-are critical, or find facts to dispute liberal talking points, their funding dries up. In real life about 10% (or less) of the low life trash commit 75% of major violent crime.
Regarding Juvenile offenders:
In 2008, over 2 million youth were arrested in the United States and 95% of them were not accused of a serious felony.
Just because a youth is arrested and may even serve time in a juvenile justice facility does not mean that they won’t ever be arrested again. Youth have recidivism rates just as adults do, but the difference in the youth population is that if recidivism is understood, future arrests can be easily prevented.
Four Facts to Know About Juvenile Recidivism
1. 66% of youth who have been arrested will become repeat offenders within 24 months. 49% of youth become repeat offenders within the first year.
2. 44% of repeat offenders are rearrested for a felony.
3. Male recidivism rates [70% of offenders] are much higher than female recidivism rates [43% of offenders] in the 24 months after being first arrested.
4. 52% to 57% of juvenile delinquents continue to offend up to age 25.
WHEN you're told the 1in 3 number, just remember, it is skewed not to give you the real data.
In 2008, over 2 million youth were arrested in the United States and 95% of them were not accused of a serious felony.
Just because a youth is arrested and may even serve time in a juvenile justice facility does not mean that they won’t ever be arrested again. Youth have recidivism rates just as adults do, but the difference in the youth population is that if recidivism is understood, future arrests can be easily prevented.
Four Facts to Know About Juvenile Recidivism
1. 66% of youth who have been arrested will become repeat offenders within 24 months. 49% of youth become repeat offenders within the first year.
2. 44% of repeat offenders are rearrested for a felony.
3. Male recidivism rates [70% of offenders] are much higher than female recidivism rates [43% of offenders] in the 24 months after being first arrested.
4. 52% to 57% of juvenile delinquents continue to offend up to age 25.
WHEN you're told the 1in 3 number, just remember, it is skewed not to give you the real data.
m1al
I'm the most wanted man on my island...
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You’re pathetic. Never once did I condone what he did. I left it in the hands of the staff to do what’s best. Because unlike you or I they have much more info to base a decision on. Seems after new info surfaced they did what they had to.
Keep being the arrogant troll that you are though because you are a treasure trove of entertainment.
GO VOLS!
My sympathy goes out to your mother, I didn't need any more information, the videos were quite enough!!! Adults, after watching bank's horrid behavior, didn't need any more, we'd seen enough.You’re pathetic. Never once did I condone what he did. I left it in the hands of the staff to do what’s best. Because unlike you or I they have much more info to base a decision on. Seems after new info surfaced they did what they had to.
Keep being the arrogant troll that you are though because you are a treasure trove of entertainment.
GO VOLS!
m1al
I'm the most wanted man on my island...
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VolunteerHillbilly
Spike Drinks, Not Trees
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Anyone else see his segment with Ubben? Pretty much nailed it as far as lost opportunities to get another QB in 2017 because Pruitt chose to stay on Bama staff, and the retraction of Penix's offer. Pointed out that Cutcliffe didn't stay at UTK for the BCSNCG when Ole Miss hired him. For the stay the course crowd, Paul said he spent time with one of the big boosters today (unnamed) who told Paul that he's sticking with Pruitt even if he loses out because he think's Butch left such as mess. So....something for everyone.
Vol524
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volfannbama
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College staff make alot of poor decisions in the absense of public pressure.You’re pathetic. Never once did I condone what he did. I left it in the hands of the staff to do what’s best. Because unlike you or I they have much more info to base a decision on. Seems after new info surfaced they did what they had to.
Keep being the arrogant troll that you are though because you are a treasure trove of entertainment.
GO VOLS!
m1al
I'm the most wanted man on my island...
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People arrested BY mid-20’s got in trouble during high school and college years and are exactly the ones of interest to people who follow college football.
Neither of the studies I cited use the flawed approach you describe. Both follow a specific sample of participants over the years and periodically survey to identify arrests and other life events. So there is no double counting of repeat offenders.
The methodology of the "data" is based on "Self reporting", as I am sure you know, having read the paper. This paper is NOT based on Actual FBI data, or State Arrest Data, but rather, this "data' was collected after sampling some young men, and asked them, if they had been arrested for a non traffic offense prior to your 18 B-Day? Trash in Trash out.
Your quotation “the difference in the youth population is that if recidivism is understood, future arrests can be easily prevented” is exactly what Pruitt and Saban advocate - youth behavior can be corrected. But, in the case of Banks, the initial behavior was just too ugly to try to correct and dismissal was really the only option.
I do not think self reporting, on a survey, or personal opinions or anecdotes are the best practice when studying large segments of our population. The DOJ has real data, often over-looked by those with a personal opinion, and are to set out to prove it. The results of this type of "politically motivated/funded" studies usually leave a lot to be desired when carefully studied, and more often than not, are just dishonest. Remember we are typically recruiting 18-19 year old young adults, not 18-23 year old young adults. DR. Ivory Toldson said of this study:
:While the numbers are disturbing, Dr. Ivory Toldson, associate professor at Howard University School of Education, senior research analyst for the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation, and the editor-in-chief of the Journal of Negro Education, dismisses the study as nothing but a collection of reckless soundbites — and he has the research to prove it::
Although the study is new, the data are old. The study also contributes nothing new to our collective understanding about race and the law. The study used self-reported data on a group of black males that would not quite fill a gymnasium, when direct data from court records are available. We have legitimate issues related to sentencing disparities and school-based arrest, but this study and the ensuing articles are nothing more than stunts, designed to create sound bites for culture critics, caricatures of young black men and fodder for popular discourse (or righteous indignation).
HOPE THIS HELPS!
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Yes, it is always better to use real data, rather than a high school gym full of "Randomly" selected men, that are suppose to represent the" entire U.S. population". Real data does away with stupid, poorly informed, idiotic opinions-the types that are formed when best practice/real data is not used.
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LOL - No one that knows me would ever consider me a liberal or a politician!
If you have better data, please post. Otherwise, I’ll stick by what I posted which suggests young people today are arrested about twice as frequently as they were in my college years and that the average football program will see about 3-4 players get into (hopefully) minor legal trouble each year. With proper intervention most of these offenders will learn from it and not have further problems.
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