Recruiting Forum Football Talk [RIP 9.3.2019]

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#158,651
#158,651
Darth_Shiveman said:
Yeah it seems like there's a lot to like about the direction we're trending, but we just have so many question marks in the trenches it's hard to really expect us to make a very big jump this season.

Could we make a huge jump if we stay healthy, get Solomon eligible, maybe Smith comes back, and all or most of our newcomers are ready and able to make instant impacts? Definitely possible.

Could none of those things go our way and it mean that our program's progress doesn't manifest itself in terms of wins? Also definitely possible.

Seems like smart money would be on some of those question marks going our way, getting a kick in the nads with some others, and seeing only a modest improvement in terms of wins and losses.

I'm not sure expecting 8-9 wins this year is really fair to Pruitt or our staff. IMO our main expectation for this year should be to be competitive in all or most of our games. We lost 5 games by 26 points or more in 2018. Going 6-6 but having all or mostly 1-2 score losses may be the kind of progress we have to live with in 2019.
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6-6 puts CJP on the hot seat in 2020 like it or not. They can't give away tickets up there right now and the change in tax deductions for charitable giving has not helped in getting the big dogs to fill the gap.
 
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#158,652
#158,652
VOLuptuousBOOMS said:
Ga St 100%
BYU 85%
Chattanooga 100%
@Florida 25%
Georgia 10%
Miss St 55%
@Alabama 5%
South Carolina 60%
UAB 100%
UK 65%
@Missouri 50%
Vanderbilt 65%
Click to expand...

Your Outcome:

Final record/Odds
10-2 3%
9-3 13%
8-4 24%
7-5 30%
6-6 19%
5-7 9%
4-8 2%

Average Wins - 7.18

Bowl - 90%

8-4 or better - 40%

Pruitt in the hot seat (according to VolunteerHillbilly) - 30%
 
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#158,653
#158,653
Devo182 said:
Your Outcome:

Final record/Odds
10-2 3%
9-3 13%
8-4 24%
7-5 30%
6-6 19%
5-7 9%
4-8 2%

Average Wins - 7.18

Bowl - 90%

8-4 or better - 40%

Pruitt in the hot seat (according to VolunteerHillbilly) - 30%
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I think they'll get 7, maybe 8 wins.

I reserve the right to change my opinion if we lose to BYU.
 
#158,655
#158,655
VolunteerHillbilly said:
6-6 puts CJP on the hot seat in 2020 like it or not. They can't give away tickets up there right now and the change in tax deductions for charitable giving has not helped in getting the big dogs to fill the gap.
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Yeah, 6-6 is progress with the record, but it’d be difficult for me to see how having that record would mean we’ve progressed as a program without seeing what those losses looked like, to the OPs point. If we are getting steamrolled in all of our losses again, that would be concerning at 6-6.
 
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#158,656
#158,656
Devo182 said:
Your Outcome:

Final record/Odds
10-2 3%
9-3 13%
8-4 24%
7-5 30%
6-6 19%
5-7 9%
4-8 2%

Average Wins - 7.18

Bowl - 90%

8-4 or better - 40%

Pruitt in the hot seat (according to VolunteerHillbilly) - 30%
Click to expand...
Nice... that falls right in line with what I’m expecting. 6-6 is the reasonable floor with 9-3 the reasonable ceiling. 7-5 and 8-4 much more probable.

All this is dependent on JG staying healthy.

Our schedule is favorable. We have several “toss ups” at home this year. MSST, USCjr, and VANDY all at home. I think at MIZZ is our 4th toughest game.

2020 will be a much tougher schedule. We play at Oklahoma and at Arkansas. Hopefully Chris Morris is a dud and we walk all over them. It will still be difficult to break 8-4, playing OK, AL, UGA, and FL plus the SEC east regulars. It will be similar to this years South Carolina schedule... brutal.
 
#158,660
#158,660
This group of players appear to be locked and completely bought in. No wonder Pruitt has so much confidence in this group. I see us being in every ball game we play this year. How will those games tilt? Depends on if his sophmores take the next step.
 
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#158,670
#158,670
Devo182 said:
A lot of discussion of 6 wins vs 7,8, even 9.

So here is how I came to 6 wins and 7 wins being equally likely, using game by game predictions. Post your own and I'll reply to you with your simulator outcomes.

Opponent Win% Prediction
Ga St 100%
BYU 80%
Chattanooga 100%
@Florida 30%
Georgia 15%
Miss St 40%
@Alabama 5%
South Carolina 45%
UAB 90%
@kentucky 70%
@Missouri 35%
Vanderbilt 50%

Final record Odds
10-2 1%
9-3 5%
8-4 19%
7-5 26%
6-6 27%
5-7 17%
4-8 4%

Bowl 79%
8-4 or better - 25% PLEASE DEAR GOD
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15 wins zero losses
 
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#158,671
#158,671
millst987 said:
UF has been living rent free in our heads since the 90’s. I have no clue as to why, but I’m putting it as a loss as well this year.
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I know the outcome of the last 20 years playing them, while I will concede, they live rent free in our heads, but I refuse to mark it as a loss until I have to.
 
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#158,675
#158,675
Devo182 said:
Then write better loans, create better relationships, etc. They write garbage loans, pass them down the line to some faceless servicer that has no relationship with the person, then turn around and charge PMI because they took on too much risk before and now. They charge 90% and 100% loans higher interest rates...that is the risk vs reward. Then they want that person to insure their own loan as well...wow. Then why don't they give them a better rate, same as the 80% ltv folks? That's crap iyam.
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U have no freaking clue. Go buy a double wide
 
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