reaperkyle
Orange Blooded
- Joined
- Jan 19, 2009
- Messages
- 99
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- 361
Hey Guys,
I've seen a lot of threads over the last few months about star ratings and thought I'd share some numbers I put together a few years back. Always such a hot topic on the boards and I wanted to see for myself what the facts were on the subject.
My assumptions are obviously debatable, but for this test, I had decided that using the 7 round NFL draft was the most accurate way to determine where a player stood after his college career. This seemed the only fair way to include guys that were grad transfers, and also guys who were red-shirted and took a year longer to develop.
I used the 247/Sports composite for the star ratings, seeing as how they are an average of theirs and the other well known rating systems, so it wasn't just one source's opinion.
% of players drafted from available recruiting cycle
(example: 2012 recuiting cycle for the 2016 NFL draft, also including 2011-2012 redshirt players and grad transfers who were required to sit a year, and 2013 recruits who opted for the draft as Juniors).
Year 5*% 4*% 3*% 2*-NR
2013 55% 29% 7% 4%
2014 57% 26% 8% 3%
2015 75% 21% 8% 1%
2016 77% 23% 6% 2%
Just for reference, during the 2008-2013 recruiting cycles, here's the average annual number of prospects at each star level:
5* - 31
4* - 273
3* - 1324
2*-NR - 972
First off, let me say that some of my favorite players have been lower rated guys that have exceeded their expectations. These numbers show that, although there are a ton of 3* guys in the NFL, only 6-8% of them, after being coached up and developed are good enough to be drafted.
The most significant thing I noticed, was that not only did an average of 67% of the 5 star guys eligible from their recruiting cycle get drafted, but that % increased every year, suggesting that the recruiting services have become more and more accurate with their talent assessments, especially when it comes to 5*'s.
Anyways, if anyone wants my full excel sheet, they can PM me. I'll be glad to share.
I'm currently working on a spreadsheet that assesses who does the most with their talent (average recruit ranking vs teams power ranking, maybe?). This would combine talent level/ability to develop/who finds overlooked talent.
Have a great night.
I've seen a lot of threads over the last few months about star ratings and thought I'd share some numbers I put together a few years back. Always such a hot topic on the boards and I wanted to see for myself what the facts were on the subject.
My assumptions are obviously debatable, but for this test, I had decided that using the 7 round NFL draft was the most accurate way to determine where a player stood after his college career. This seemed the only fair way to include guys that were grad transfers, and also guys who were red-shirted and took a year longer to develop.
I used the 247/Sports composite for the star ratings, seeing as how they are an average of theirs and the other well known rating systems, so it wasn't just one source's opinion.
% of players drafted from available recruiting cycle
(example: 2012 recuiting cycle for the 2016 NFL draft, also including 2011-2012 redshirt players and grad transfers who were required to sit a year, and 2013 recruits who opted for the draft as Juniors).
Year 5*% 4*% 3*% 2*-NR
2013 55% 29% 7% 4%
2014 57% 26% 8% 3%
2015 75% 21% 8% 1%
2016 77% 23% 6% 2%
Just for reference, during the 2008-2013 recruiting cycles, here's the average annual number of prospects at each star level:
5* - 31
4* - 273
3* - 1324
2*-NR - 972
First off, let me say that some of my favorite players have been lower rated guys that have exceeded their expectations. These numbers show that, although there are a ton of 3* guys in the NFL, only 6-8% of them, after being coached up and developed are good enough to be drafted.
The most significant thing I noticed, was that not only did an average of 67% of the 5 star guys eligible from their recruiting cycle get drafted, but that % increased every year, suggesting that the recruiting services have become more and more accurate with their talent assessments, especially when it comes to 5*'s.
Anyways, if anyone wants my full excel sheet, they can PM me. I'll be glad to share.
I'm currently working on a spreadsheet that assesses who does the most with their talent (average recruit ranking vs teams power ranking, maybe?). This would combine talent level/ability to develop/who finds overlooked talent.
Have a great night.
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