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Date: Saturday, October 13th
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET
Venue: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
Network: SEC Network
The Vols took the week off last week as they prepared their continued march of pain through October. This week, they travel to the plains of Auburn to take on the Tigers. As you can see by the ESPN Matchup Predictor above, no one is giving Tennessee much of a chance in this one, for what seems to be good reason. However, there is hope... and maybe a bit more than hope. Statistics never tell the whole story, but they are a piece, and a glance at the season statistics of both teams tells an interesting story. It tells a story of two teams that may be a bit more closely matched than you would think. Have a look.
Keys to Victory:
1. The same #1 as probably every single week: You are probably tired of hearing it, and I'm certainly tired of saying it... the offensive line needs to improve. Locklear is out for a couple of weeks at least with knee surgery which thins out an already thin OL. Trey Smith has been a shadow of himself, with some suggesting an ankle may be taking it's toll on him. Hopefully the extra week has allowed him to heal up, and for the offensive line to hopefully be ready for war. They are going to have to go against possibly the best DL in the nation.
Dontavius Russell and former nearly Vol, Derrick Brown at tackle, and Marlon Davidson at defensive end, are preseason All-SEC selections. Brown was named to the All-SEC second team, while Russell and Davidson both earned third-team recognition. If the offensive line can't slow down the rush and create lanes for the running game, you can pretty much go ahead and shut it down. It's unrealistic to expect the line to dominate, but they need to give opportunities to created sustained drives. Key Point: Good OL play.
2. Good-Bye Week: I've got no data for this, but I'm going to say that a bye week has twice the value for a first time coach than any other coach. Extra time to re-examine not only your gameplans, but your methodology without the urgency of immediate game planning is critical. Let's hope that not only have the injuries (Trey Smith, Callaway, etc.) have healed up a bit, but the coaches have been able to take a closer look at contributors, weak links and schemes that aren't working... like the whole offense. Key Point: Did you get better?
3. Run for your Life: Tennessee has to be able to establish the ground game. Mississippi State exposed a flaw in the Auburn rushing defense, which was outstanding up until two days ago... a mobile QB. QB Nick Ftizgerald took off for an eye popping 28 times and gashed the Auburn defense for 195, all on his own. Alas, our top rated dual threat QB is in actual fact, no dual threat QB. This is a game made for Josh Dobbs, and there is not one to be found. Without the threat of a running QB, Tennessee will have a hard time getting the running game going. Look for Helton to test the defense with a couple of QB runs, but I think they fear injury to JG and doubt how effective it can be. I think it is more likely JG ends up with negative yards from sacks. If that's the case, it's all on the RB's. Wildcat would not be effective if you aren't going to pass from it, so that's kind of out too. Key Point: Can JG run for some yards?
4. Storm or no Storm?: Where is the collective head of this Auburn team? With two SEC losses... and Bama not even played yet... nor UGA... they have absolutely no shot at the SEC Championship game. Having beaten both NC participants last year, they no doubt had high expectations for this season. Now, you are playing for essentially a bowl game no one cares about when you dreamed of finger candy. There have been multiple transfers this season, a mysterious disgruntled letter about Malzahn supposedly from a current player, and they are coming off a loss to an average Mississippi State game. Oh yeah... they are supposed to get up for a game against a terrible Tennessee team that begins at 11:00 am. Sometimes, all the conditions are right for a perfect storm, and yet, there is no storm. However, sometimes things come into alignment, certain air pressure things I don't understand do their things, and dark clouds collect on the horizon. I wonder what we've got here. Key Point: Ridin' the storm out?
5. Continue the Struggle: Auburn has been struggling offensively recently. In spite of having former 5* quarterback Jarrett Stidham leading their offense, they average a paltry 2.7 more PPG than the Vols. Gus Malzahn's offense is methodical. If he finds something that is working, he will poke you in that spot relentlessly until it stops working. If he has trouble getting his team in a groove, it could be a struggle for Auburn. This is a classic chess mass between Pruitt and Gus, but unfortunately, Pruitt doesn't have all the pieces on the board yet. Auburn has only lost 7 turnovers this season, while taking 11. Tennessee needs to force some turnovers to help flip field position for an offense that still can't seem to move the ball very well. Key Point: Tennessee defense needs to shine.
Prediction:
To me, this is a really interesting match-up that Tennessee probably has no business being optimistic about. However, I am intrigued to see how the team responds coming out of a bye-week and where Auburn's motivation is. I can't count on those things though, so I'll base my prediction on what I expect to see without planting magic beans. Vols continue to struggle on offense as the Auburn front 7 creates pressure all game long. The Vol defense does an admirable job, but doesn't get a lot of help along the way. In an alternate universe, the TN OL has gelled, Trey Smith feels 100% and Auburn doesn't care one bit about this game and the Vols win... but I don't think that's our universe... but maybe.
TN 10
Auburn 20
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET
Venue: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
Network: SEC Network
The Vols took the week off last week as they prepared their continued march of pain through October. This week, they travel to the plains of Auburn to take on the Tigers. As you can see by the ESPN Matchup Predictor above, no one is giving Tennessee much of a chance in this one, for what seems to be good reason. However, there is hope... and maybe a bit more than hope. Statistics never tell the whole story, but they are a piece, and a glance at the season statistics of both teams tells an interesting story. It tells a story of two teams that may be a bit more closely matched than you would think. Have a look.
Keys to Victory:
1. The same #1 as probably every single week: You are probably tired of hearing it, and I'm certainly tired of saying it... the offensive line needs to improve. Locklear is out for a couple of weeks at least with knee surgery which thins out an already thin OL. Trey Smith has been a shadow of himself, with some suggesting an ankle may be taking it's toll on him. Hopefully the extra week has allowed him to heal up, and for the offensive line to hopefully be ready for war. They are going to have to go against possibly the best DL in the nation.
Dontavius Russell and former nearly Vol, Derrick Brown at tackle, and Marlon Davidson at defensive end, are preseason All-SEC selections. Brown was named to the All-SEC second team, while Russell and Davidson both earned third-team recognition. If the offensive line can't slow down the rush and create lanes for the running game, you can pretty much go ahead and shut it down. It's unrealistic to expect the line to dominate, but they need to give opportunities to created sustained drives. Key Point: Good OL play.
2. Good-Bye Week: I've got no data for this, but I'm going to say that a bye week has twice the value for a first time coach than any other coach. Extra time to re-examine not only your gameplans, but your methodology without the urgency of immediate game planning is critical. Let's hope that not only have the injuries (Trey Smith, Callaway, etc.) have healed up a bit, but the coaches have been able to take a closer look at contributors, weak links and schemes that aren't working... like the whole offense. Key Point: Did you get better?
3. Run for your Life: Tennessee has to be able to establish the ground game. Mississippi State exposed a flaw in the Auburn rushing defense, which was outstanding up until two days ago... a mobile QB. QB Nick Ftizgerald took off for an eye popping 28 times and gashed the Auburn defense for 195, all on his own. Alas, our top rated dual threat QB is in actual fact, no dual threat QB. This is a game made for Josh Dobbs, and there is not one to be found. Without the threat of a running QB, Tennessee will have a hard time getting the running game going. Look for Helton to test the defense with a couple of QB runs, but I think they fear injury to JG and doubt how effective it can be. I think it is more likely JG ends up with negative yards from sacks. If that's the case, it's all on the RB's. Wildcat would not be effective if you aren't going to pass from it, so that's kind of out too. Key Point: Can JG run for some yards?
4. Storm or no Storm?: Where is the collective head of this Auburn team? With two SEC losses... and Bama not even played yet... nor UGA... they have absolutely no shot at the SEC Championship game. Having beaten both NC participants last year, they no doubt had high expectations for this season. Now, you are playing for essentially a bowl game no one cares about when you dreamed of finger candy. There have been multiple transfers this season, a mysterious disgruntled letter about Malzahn supposedly from a current player, and they are coming off a loss to an average Mississippi State game. Oh yeah... they are supposed to get up for a game against a terrible Tennessee team that begins at 11:00 am. Sometimes, all the conditions are right for a perfect storm, and yet, there is no storm. However, sometimes things come into alignment, certain air pressure things I don't understand do their things, and dark clouds collect on the horizon. I wonder what we've got here. Key Point: Ridin' the storm out?
5. Continue the Struggle: Auburn has been struggling offensively recently. In spite of having former 5* quarterback Jarrett Stidham leading their offense, they average a paltry 2.7 more PPG than the Vols. Gus Malzahn's offense is methodical. If he finds something that is working, he will poke you in that spot relentlessly until it stops working. If he has trouble getting his team in a groove, it could be a struggle for Auburn. This is a classic chess mass between Pruitt and Gus, but unfortunately, Pruitt doesn't have all the pieces on the board yet. Auburn has only lost 7 turnovers this season, while taking 11. Tennessee needs to force some turnovers to help flip field position for an offense that still can't seem to move the ball very well. Key Point: Tennessee defense needs to shine.
Prediction:
To me, this is a really interesting match-up that Tennessee probably has no business being optimistic about. However, I am intrigued to see how the team responds coming out of a bye-week and where Auburn's motivation is. I can't count on those things though, so I'll base my prediction on what I expect to see without planting magic beans. Vols continue to struggle on offense as the Auburn front 7 creates pressure all game long. The Vol defense does an admirable job, but doesn't get a lot of help along the way. In an alternate universe, the TN OL has gelled, Trey Smith feels 100% and Auburn doesn't care one bit about this game and the Vols win... but I don't think that's our universe... but maybe.
TN 10
Auburn 20
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