Some Perspective on "Rebuilds"

[VFL-82-JP]

Here's a key point of tension:

-- Either -- you fire a coach too early, when he might have ended up being a championship caliber guy ...

-- Or -- you hang on to a coach too long, wasting time that could be spent going after a real champion.

This tension, this either/or conundrum, is one big source of friction among VN.com members. Some want to keep jumping from coach to coach to coach, every year or two, until we find a guy who can have quick success (the theory being, the only guys who win national titles are guys who have quick success). Others want to slow it down, give a guy time to really prove himself one way or the other, be sure before starting all over again.

Which path would get us to the Right Coach faster? I don't know. You can waste a lot of time, maybe throwing out great coaches, if you're a flitterbug. But you can also waste a lot of time getting to 100% certainty when 85% or 90% would do.

Anyway, we argue a lot, and frequently, over this aspect of the Hunt for the Next Neyland.

 

[Hoosier_Vol]

We've been rebuilding about as long as I can remember


View attachment 170774

This is true but sadly every time you hire a new coach you HAVE to give him 2-3 years in all honesty to attempt to turn things around....When you go thru new coaches every few seasons your just killing any quick term "rebuild" hope.

 

[Johnnyreb#VFL]

There was also an SEC coach that went 5-7 in his first year, improved to 7-6 in year 2, 9-4 in years 3&4, then 4-8. What happened there

 

[Johnnyreb#VFL]

Here's a key point of tension:

-- Either -- you fire a coach too early, when he might have ended up being a championship caliber guy ...

-- Or -- you hang on to a coach too long, wasting time that could be spent going after a real champion.

This tension, this either/or conundrum, is one big source of friction among VN.com members. Some want to keep jumping from coach to coach to coach, every year or two, until we find a guy who can have quick success (the theory being, the only guys who win national titles are guys who have quick success). Others want to slow it down, give a guy time to really prove himself one way or the other, be sure before starting all over again.

Which path would get us to the Right Coach faster? I don't know. You can waste a lot of time, maybe throwing out great coaches, if you're a flitterbug. But you can also waste a lot of time getting to 100% certainty when 85% or 90% would do.

Anyway, we argue a lot, and frequently, over this aspect of the Hunt for the Next Neyland.

Money post is money

 

[MWAVolfan]

In 1999, Lou Holtz took over a South Carolina program that was in shambles. They went 1-10 in 1998, and in his first year on the job in 1999 they went 0-11, only scoring more than 14 points once the entire season. Guess what happened in 2000 (year 2)? they went 8-4, 5-3 in the SEC and had wins over a ranked Georgia team and then over a ranked Ohio State team in their bowl game.

Also in 1999, Kirk Ferentz took over an Iowa program that had fallen on hard times. He inherited a 3-8 team, and went just 1-10 in his first season. The second season they 'improved' to 3-9. By year 3, they were 7-5 and won the Alamo bowl. Year 4 they won the BIG TEN going 11-1 in the regular season before losing the Orange Bowl. His only HC experience prior to Iowa was in the early '90's at Maine.

We all know Nick Saban went 6-6 his first year at Alabama, with a bad loss at home to Louisiana-Monroe. Did you also know through his first four years at Michigan State he was a combined 25-22-1? In Year 5 (his final year before taking the LSU gig), they went 9-2.

The point is that rebuilds take time. Usually they take a lot of time. There are going to be many 'downs' and few 'ups.'

The entire culture of the program is slowly going to change under Coach Pruitt. It's going to take a lot of time. Come along for the ride.

Literally ALL of this was said when UT hired Lyle "Butch" Jones.

 

[MWAVolfan]

Bret Bielema went 3-9 his first year, then 7-6 then 8-5 then his @ss was fired in yr 5 AT ARKANSAS.

Point is, aint nobody got "years to rebuild" anymore. This isnt 1999. When Arkansas is firing its coach for not winning more, what do you think is supposed to happen at a traditional football power like Tennessee?

UT has tried the "wait and see" thing twice in a row and it failed twice in a row. And the guy we have as head coach now has less experience that either Dooley or Lyle had when we hired them.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Literally ALL of this was said when UT hired Lyle "Butch" Jones.

Butch's tenure didn't make any of that wrong. Butch's tenure only proved that Butch wasn't the right guy.

 

[MWAVolfan]

Butch's tenure didn't make any of that wrong. Butch's tenure only proved that Butch wasn't the right guy.

But his tenure also proves the new truth that you cant just wait around on a guy. You have to assess quickly, is this the guy or not because a wrong choise and your program is in the dumpster for the forseasble future and just because Tennessee is a disaster now, doesnt mean the new guy gets even more time. The longer it goes the tighter the downward spiral will go.

We need the "right guy" to start winning quickly. Maybe not this year, but next year for sure.

 

[BeardedVol]

Lou Holtz would go 0-8 every year at USCe in today's SEC.

 

[bpalmer28]

Pruitt isnt Lou Holtz. He isnt even Skip Holtz yet.

Im afraid this will take Pruitt alot longer than it took Lou Holtz.

Oh that SC team lost to #4 Tennessee by 23 in Knoxville that year and by 17 the following week to #4 Florida. While they didnt win a game, they did appear to play with spirit and purpose. Something we havent seen much of with the Vols in several years.

We'll see about that.

 

[Volfan2012]

JMO but I feel good about every group on this football team except the OL and DL. If those two lines were a lot better this team would be capable of winning several of these remaining SEC games.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

But his tenure also proves the new truth that you cant just wait around on a guy. You have to assess quickly, is this the guy or not because a wrong choise and your program is in the dumpster for the forseasble future and just because Tennessee is a disaster now, doesnt mean the new guy gets even more time. The longer it goes the tighter the downward spiral will go.

We need the "right guy" to start winning quickly. Maybe not this year, but next year for sure.

It doesn't prove that, at all.

One coach--no matter who it is--is not going to solve that either/or question I was talking about earlier. A Butch who turns out to be wrong after 5 years does not mean that a Dabo (who turns out to be very successful) wasn't worth waiting on.

The tension still exists, and there's still no right answer. You're in the "flitterbug" crowd, so you think there's only one right way. But both perspectives are valid, and we're just going to have to muddle through as best we can without tilting too far toward either extreme.

 

[MWAVolfan]

It doesn't prove that, at all.

One coach--no matter who it is--is not going to solve that either/or question I was talking about earlier. A Butch who turns out to be wrong after 5 years does not mean that a Dabo (who turns out to be very successful) wasn't worth waiting on.

The tension still exists, and there's still no right answer. You're in the "flitterbug" crowd, so you think there's only one right way. But both perspectives are valid, and we're just going to have to muddle through as best we can without tilting too far toward either extreme.

UT cant afford to be wrong again. They are already at the point where none of these kids or students know anything at all about winning or expectations. The players UT is recruiting dont ever rememeber a winning UT football team. We are now at the 10 year mark post-Fulmer and the program was already down for 4-5 years prior to that. If after 5 years of Pruitt the team isnt a serious contender (consistently winning 10+ games a year) you are staring at a full 20 years of irrelevance. Coaches already pass this job over because it isnt considered a premium job. Add 5 more years and UT will be competing with Wake Forrest for head coaches.

 

[jakez4ut]

But his tenure also proves the new truth that you cant just wait around on a guy. You have to assess quickly, is this the guy or not because a wrong choise and your program is in the dumpster for the forseasble future and just because Tennessee is a disaster now, doesnt mean the new guy gets even more time. The longer it goes the tighter the downward spiral will go.

We need the "right guy" to start winning quickly. Maybe not this year, but next year for sure.

and mark stoops is proving that patience might still be virtue?

there is no "one truth" or "only way".

situation dicatates. and the whole situation with Butch after year 3 was BAD. administratively, on the field...just bad.

today's situation is wholly different.

and it won't matter anyway, it'll still be year 3 before we see the fruits of their labor. and even by then, that may just mean we're to the point we can actually look like we belong on the same field with the Bama's and GA's of the world, much less legitimately start competing for W's and championships.

the gap between us and them is as wide as it was in 5 years ago, if not wider. i know it's wider between us and GA.

 

[jakez4ut]

UT cant afford to be wrong again. They are already at the point where none of these kids or students know anything at all about winning or expectations. The players UT is recruiting dont ever rememeber a winning UT football team. We are now at the 10 year mark post-Fulmer and the program was already down for 4-5 years prior to that. If after 5 years of Pruitt the team isnt a serious contender (consistently winning 10+ games a year) you are staring at a full 20 years of irrelevance. Coaches already pass this job over because it isnt considered a premium job. Add 5 more years and UT will be competing with Wake Forrest for head coaches.

if we can't afford to be wrong again, then the right thing to do is change coaches, what, on a yearly basis until somone lucks up and wins something in year 1 or 2?

you make zero sense.

if we really cant afford to be wrong, then we should quit. cause there's always a chance you're gonna be wrong. probably better chances at being wrong vs. right actually.

quit panicking. jeez. it's already bad. and it isn't gonna get good tomorrow, no matter who you fire/hire/fire/hire/fire/hire..............

 

[SaintLouisVol]

But his tenure also proves the new truth that you cant just wait around on a guy. You have to assess quickly, is this the guy or not because a wrong choice and your program is in the dumpster for the foreseeable future and just because Tennessee is a disaster now, doesn't mean the new guy gets even more time. The longer it goes the tighter the downward spiral will go.

We need the "right guy" to start winning quickly. Maybe not this year, but next year for sure.

I agree that letting a bad coach linger is problematic, but pulling the trigger quickly has some pretty tough consequences as well. Every time you fire a coach, it makes it a littler tougher to hire the next guy. In addition to the obvious financial ramifications, you have to deal with the fact that every fired failure is another scar on the program.

 

[jakez4ut]

I agree that letting a bad coach linger is problematic, but pulling the trigger quickly has some pretty tough consequences as well. Every time you fire a coach, it makes it a littler tougher to hire the next guy. In addition to the obvious financial ramifications, but have deal with the that every fired failure is another scar on the program.

this makes way too much sense to be part of this conversation.

 

[CardsNVols]

Then find another team to root for.

*** learn to read.

 

[MWAVolfan]

I agree that letting a bad coach linger is problematic, but pulling the trigger quickly has some pretty tough consequences as well. Every time you fire a coach, it makes it a littler tougher to hire the next guy. In addition to the obvious financial ramifications, you have to deal with the fact that every fired failure is another scar on the program.

Would you agree that giving a coach 5 years is plenty? That 5 years is not a knee jerk reaction? and yet, how did our coaching search go? Was it made easier because we gave Butch "plenty of time"? Heck no, it was made even harder because we let Dekrek Dooley drive the bus into a ditch and let Butch Jones set it on fire. We were a laughing stock. It was like an episode of Jerry Springer. Meanwhile TAMU somehow landed Jimbo Fisher because they offered the $$$. why the heck would Jimbo take TAMU over UT other than the fact that UT waited around on the bum coaches rather than getting after it and getting serious and let it program fall completely out of relevance. I realize getting a guy like Jimbo Fisher was completely unrealistic, but it was only unrealistic due to what UT did to itself.

If by year three you cant look at your coach and say "he's ABSOLUTELY the future of this program, with zero doubt" then he isnt and it time to make serious decisions. Because the next coaching hire is gonna be hard no matter what, especially when you dont offer the $$$ to get an impact coach.

I'm in no way down on Pruitt. I'm simply saying UT cant be wrong again without risking permanent irrelavance.

 

[05_never_again]

But his tenure also proves the new truth that you cant just wait around on a guy. You have to assess quickly, is this the guy or not because a wrong choise and your program is in the dumpster for the forseasble future and just because Tennessee is a disaster now, doesnt mean the new guy gets even more time. The longer it goes the tighter the downward spiral will go.

We need the "right guy" to start winning quickly. Maybe not this year, but next year for sure.

What do you mean by "winning?" You mean 7 wins in year 2? 9 wins? 10/11 wins and talk of conference titles? I agree that a good coach makes improvements that are obvious in year 1 and 2 but might not have the program truly humming until the 3rd year.

I think you are partially correct. Unless you end up with Saban and he does make you one of the top teams in the country by year 2, I'm not sure you know you have a great coach for a few years. Nobody will admit this now, but these boards were broadly on board with Butch until the 2016 South Carolina game. He steadily improved this program from from 2013-15. 2016 was supposed to be the year Tennessee finally won something, but there was no improvement that year, then the next year the bottom fell out.

It was not clearly apparent Butch was not a top coach until midway through the 2016 season. Of course it is obvious now, but let's not act like the writing was on the wall about Butch in 2013-14 or something crazy like that.

 

[jakez4ut]

Would you agree that giving a coach 5 years is plenty? That 5 years is not a knee jerk reaction? and yet, how did our coaching search go? Was it made easier because we gave Butch "plenty of time"? Heck no, it was made even harder because we let Dekrek Dooley drive the bus into a ditch and let Butch Jones set it on fire.

If by year three you cant look at your coach and say "he's ABSOLUTELY the future of this program, with zero doubt" then he isnt and it time to make serious decisions. Because the next coaching hire is gonna be hard no matter what, especially when you dont offer the $$$ to get an impact coach.

I'm in no way down on Pruitt. I'm simply saying UT cant be wrong again without risking permanent irrelavance.

so which is it, 5 years or "be able to quickly assess" if he's it or not? or, is it he should get 5 years, but if after 3 you're just not sure, can him, and forget the 5 year deal?

there's no one way to do it. if they fired Mark Stoops last year, KY wouldn't be having the season they are right now. were they wrong to give it another year?

situation dictates. there's no formula. if everyone used your formual, Clemson would have fired Dabo after year 3. they weren't "absolutely sure". they brought him a long as the interim 2008, and two years later, they were hovering at 6 wins in year 3.

your formual says he should have been fired.

which sucks, cause the next year they went 10-3 and won the ACC and went to a BCS bowl.

or, how about David Cutcliffe, he got hired at Duke and had a paultry 10 wins combined in his first 3 years. shoulda fired him.

it's unfortunate they retained him and let him hang around, cause it took him 6 years to win his division....AT DUKE.

so for every example you have of coach x doing something in year 2, there's a hundred others where it happens just a little later.

and the only point here is that every situation is different, and that really, at the end of the day, is what dicatates how those decisions should be made, not because of some magic formua.

 

[GBOVFL88]

There is a lot that you have to consider when looking at a rebuild. The primary factors IMO are the 2 deep to start the off season, the tenure and success/failure of the head coach and coaching staff, strength of conference and non-conference schedule, ability to develop talent, and the recruiting ability of the coach and school. Way too much to consider there to accurately compare rebuilds, especially if the comparisons are separated by 2 decades. The game has changed so much since the 98-99 seasons to 2018 that its almost like comparing apples to oranges.

 

[MWAVolfan]

What do you mean by "winning?" You mean 7 wins in year 2? 9 wins? 10/11 wins and talk of conference titles? I agree that a good coach makes improvements that are obvious in year 1 and 2 but might not have the program truly humming until the 3rd year.

I think you are partially correct. Unless you end up with Saban and he does make you one of the top teams in the country by year 2, I'm not sure you know you have a great coach for a few years. Nobody will admit this now, but these boards were broadly on board with Butch until the 2016 South Carolina game. He steadily improved this program from from 2013-15. 2016 was supposed to be the year Tennessee finally won something, but there was no improvement that year, then the next year the bottom fell out.

It was not clearly apparent Butch was not a top coach until midway through the 2016 season. Of course it is obvious now, but let's not act like the writing was on the wall about Butch in 2013-14 or something crazy like that.

Oh, you CLEARLY dont remember my posts on this board from back then....LOL

You could see Butch wasn't the guy. What I think you saw was most people's willingness to blindly BELEIVE that Butch HAD to be a good coach. We were so desperate for national attention that winning 9 games was like winning the super bowl. but PLENTY of people could see that Butch's manerisms, his language, his demeanor, his excuses, his winning IN SPITE of a terrible offensive scheme (Josh Dobbs saves his bones).

Here is a great non-football example for you.... Mike Matheny won more baseball games in his first 1000 games than any Cardinals manager and won more games in his first 5 years as a head coach than almost all MLB head coaches in history. Yet it was widely known and talked about that St Louis won IN SPITE of him and that he couldnt manage his way out of a paper bag. St Louis sacrificed many good chances to contend for titles because they waited around far too long. Now they miss the post season for 3 years running for the first time in 20 years.

Butch was the same way. It was obvious (yes, even THEN) that he wasn't the guy. But so many people were forced to believe that he was because they wanted to be relevant in the worst way. they were blind.

 

[MWAVolfan]

so which is it, 5 years or "be able to quickly assess" if he's it or not? or, is it he should get 5 years, but if after 3 you're just not sure, can him, and forget the 5 year deal?

there's no one way to do it. if they fired Mark Stoops last year, KY wouldn't be having the season they are right now. were they wrong to give it another year?

Kentucky is not that good! Maybe by Kentucky's standard they are good, but Kentucky is benefitiing big time by the fact that every team in the east, save Georgia is not that good. Mark Stoops is LUCKY to have been at the right school (Kentucky with no football standards) at the right time (the majority of the SEC east sucks).

Using Kentucky as an example here is a terrible illustration of "giving someone time".

Like I said, if you cant tell in 3 years then you need to have serious talks about what's next.

 

[05_never_again]

If by year three you cant look at your coach and say "he's ABSOLUTELY the future of this program, with zero doubt" then he isnt and it time to make serious decisions. Because the next coaching hire is gonna be hard no matter what, especially when you dont offer the $$$ to get an impact coach.

That logic dictates that unless you have managed to hire someone who will go down as one of the greatest coaches in the history of CFB, you'll fire a coach.

Barry Alvarez would have been canned at Wisconsin. Dabo absolutely would have been canned. Probably not a firing, but there would be a lot of angst about Fulmer. Bill Snyder would have been fired. Mike Gundy would have been fired. Kyle Whittingham would have been fired right before the best year in program history. Spurrier would have been canned at South Carolina. Mark Dantonio would have been fired at Michigan St. Mike Bellotti would have been fired at Oregon. None of these coaches had their programs firing on all cylinders after 3 seasons.

You have to look at each situation in isolation and consider the particulars of each rebuilding situation. They aren't all exactly alike.