Recruiting Forum Football Talk [RIP 9.3.2019]

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#10,652
#10,652
omghulkhands said:
I agree.

People like to say they were x plays away from a better record.

between Tech and Umass we were 2 plays away from being a 2 win football team too.

Pruitt has his work cut out for him and I know it’s a totally arbitrary line to set without watching the games be played out, but I’ll be damn impressed with 6 wins
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I’ve said for a while now. Make a bowl game (hopefully win it)

And have a top tier recruiting class.

There’s not much difference in going 6-6 or 7-5 in our situation tbh.
 
#10,653
#10,653
omghulkhands said:
I agree.

People like to say they were x plays away from a better record.

between Tech and Umass we were 2 plays away from being a 2 win football team too.

Pruitt has his work cut out for him and I know it’s a totally arbitrary line to set without watching the games be played out, but I’ll be damn impressed with 6 wins
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Yeah that's one I roll my eyes at. "But, but we were just a few plays from being a 7 or 8 win football team last year with Botch Jones." Yeah, we were also a UMASS QB injury and a fourth down stop against Georgia Tech away from being 2-10. Can't have it both ways.
 
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#10,654
#10,654
Darth_Shiveman said:
Maybe.

I’m not expecting the huge jump many here are in year 1. We’re gonna see that jump next year, IMO. I could see us having one of those seasons where we play better football all around and it doesnt really reflect in the W-L column. Our schedule doesn’t really do us too many favors given how much change we’re going through.
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Well chef liked yer post so you have his vote.
 
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#10,655
#10,655
ChattaTNVol said:
I used only the unit efficiencies as calculated by ESPN.



I accept you come to a different conclusion regarding the prospects for our team this year using whatever means you are choosing. What I posted doesn't specifically place any value one way or the other on anything you have argued so I'm not going to argue with you about something that's not arguable based on the model. I think there's a better than 70% chance that the math for us this year will turn out to be more accurate than you may think. jmo.
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Huh. I didn’t realize there was a statistic that valued that 2013 defense so highly. Interesting considering how many yards and points they gave up that year.

Maybe your models are right. Not sure I buy it. Games aren’t played on paper.
 
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#10,660
#10,660
I think we'll see some progress on Defense, but it will be slower to show up in the yardage allowed categories. The statistical categories I'm expecting improvements in are the 3rd Down %, Red Zone %, and takeaways. We need to be a defense that can get off the field consistently before we can become dominant from the LOS.
 
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#10,661
#10,661
vol81 said:
Hymans is a little too touristy for my taste. Roadside seafood on folly road is very good
Too bad Bowens island is closed on Sunday.
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Yes, Bowens is excellent, probably for the atmosphere (on the water) as much as the food.

Invol, when you say close to Summerville, I assume that rules out downtown Charleston and Folly and Mt Pleasant and a lot of good seafood. All are 30+ minutes from there. I'm not big into seafood, but I've heard good things about Shuckin Shack Oyster Bar or maybe Lowcountry Fish Camp, both in Summerville.
 
#10,664
#10,664
ChattaTNVol said:
It’s just math.

In the financial markets some people invest/trade based on fundamental analysis. Others use an approach called technical analysis. Fifty years ago technical analysis was perceived similar to junk science. Today most traders regardless of size prefer technical analysis over fundamental analysis. Technical analysis is really just math based on historical data.

I’ve been studying our unit efficiencies over the past 13 years (2005-2017) in an effort to project where we might finish this year. Without getting into a lot of TL:dnr stuff, I’m going to cut to the chase. I have our offense finishing 2018 with an efficiency rating of 66.5 which should be good for 28th best in the nation. I have our defense finishing the season with a rating of 73.1 which will put us at the 20th best defense among all 130 power 5 teams. I have our special teams unit finishing at 64.8 which should land us at 8th best in the country. Overall I have the 2018 team ending up with a rating of 72.1 at the end of the year which should see us finishing the season ranked nationally as the 20th best team in the country.

A phenomenon known as the anchoring bias is the obvious explanation why so many people can’t see the potential of our football team this year. Too many people are anchored to the 2017 performance of the team to make an objective cognitively unbiased assessment of our team for the 2018 season. In the market 2017 would be considered a capitulation move. It’s the bottom. Everyone gives up. It’s the perfect buying opportunity. It’s also counterintuitive. Fear is at a maximum. Only the bold and brave will have the nerve to take advantage of such an opportunity. Jmo.

So I have this year as our 5th best offense relative to the period studied, our 3rd best defense, and our best special teams unit of all 13 years (owing to the philosophy of only playing our best players on special teams). This would be our overall 3rd best team relative to the most recent 13 years of our history. TIFWIW.
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Awesome stuff. Can you save this post? I'd love to look back at the end of the season and see how close your numbers are.
 
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#10,674
#10,674
Sleegro said:
I'm not into predicting a win total. Seems pointless to me. I think we're gonna have a much better season than you seem to think though.
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And let’s be honest, whether we win 5 or 7 games could come down to whether a couple calls go our way, whether we stay healthy in a few key spots, and/or health of our opponents.

Way too many unknowns to make a precise prediction in the W-L column IMO
 
#10,675
#10,675
Sleegro said:
I'm not into predicting a win total. Seems pointless to me. I think we're gonna have a much better season than you seem to think though.
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Which would mean you're probably thinking in the 7 or 8 win range, because I'm thinking 6. I think we'll see a well coached football team overall, that'll show some flashes here and there. 6 wins would be a success this season in my mind, given all the circumstances.
 
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