It’s just math.
In the financial markets some people invest/trade based on fundamental analysis. Others use an approach called technical analysis. Fifty years ago technical analysis was perceived similar to junk science. Today most traders regardless of size prefer technical analysis over fundamental analysis. Technical analysis is really just math based on historical data.
I’ve been studying our unit efficiencies over the past 13 years (2005-2017) in an effort to project where we might finish this year. Without getting into a lot of TL:dnr stuff, I’m going to cut to the chase. I have our offense finishing 2018 with an efficiency rating of 66.5 which should be good for 28th best in the nation. I have our defense finishing the season with a rating of 73.1 which will put us at the 20th best defense among all 130 power 5 teams. I have our special teams unit finishing at 64.8 which should land us at 8th best in the country. Overall I have the 2018 team ending up with a rating of 72.1 at the end of the year which should see us finishing the season ranked nationally as the 20th best team in the country.
A phenomenon known as the anchoring bias is the obvious explanation why so many people can’t see the potential of our football team this year. Too many people are anchored to the 2017 performance of the team to make an objective cognitively unbiased assessment of our team for the 2018 season. In the market 2017 would be considered a capitulation move. It’s the bottom. Everyone gives up. It’s the perfect buying opportunity. It’s also counterintuitive. Fear is at a maximum. Only the bold and brave will have the nerve to take advantage of such an opportunity. Jmo.
So I have this year as our 5th best offense relative to the period studied, our 3rd best defense, and our best special teams unit of all 13 years (owing to the philosophy of only playing our best players on special teams). This would be our overall 3rd best team relative to the most recent 13 years of our history. TIFWIW.