Recruiting Forum Football Talk [RIP 9.3.2019]

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#1,951
#1,951
GoVolsDR said:
As a noted local gambler, I wonder if Tay Bang can talk about his thoughts on reverse line movement, and what metrics he uses to bet heavy against the public.
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There's no science to gambling... with the line in place it's no better than a 55% chance you're right if you're well-informed on the games/matchups. With vig, you need to hit 58% to live off it assuming you've got a bankroll that's big enough to live off winnings week to week. "Professional" gamblers aren't really any better at betting than an average joe that knows the game/matchups. They just know what all the bets are, and they have gotten lucky with a huge bet at one point to build bankroll...

You don't ever hear about the guy that lost his mortgage to the bookie... you hear about the guy won millions betting on the Cubs.

Reverse line blah blah... the public is right slightly less than half the time...
 
#1,954
#1,954
WinginFlorida said:
He might...

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I'm currently developing a model, that I'll backtest against the 2017 NCAAF season, that looks at line movement and gives me a confidence coefficient that filters out movement from a noisy public (i.e. market overreactions to stories like injuries, suspensions, etc...)
 
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#1,956
#1,956
bignewt said:
What I like is they gave up very little for him. I like Wisler but...
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Yeah, I'm with you. You probably know but for those that don't, this is the third pickup we have gotten for essentially nothing. We literally only gave up money for Venters and Brach. I liked Wisler too based on "maybe he can still turn the corner" but the fact is we have too many pitchers right now and this not only got us a big bopper but opened up some space for the prospects.
 
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#1,957
#1,957
BigOrange15 said:
Yeah, I'm with you. You probably know but for those that don't, this is the third pickup we have gotten for essentially nothing. We literally only gave up money for Venters and Brach. I liked Wisler too based on "maybe he can still turn the corner" but the fact is we have too many pitchers right now and this not only got us a big bopper but opened up some space for the prospects.
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White Lightning Babeh!

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#1,958
#1,958
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#1,960
#1,960
PoweredByTheT said:
There's no science to gambling... with the line in place it's no better than a 55% chance you're right if you're well-informed on the games/matchups. With vig, you need to hit 58% to live off it assuming you've got a bankroll that's big enough to live off winnings week to week. "Professional" gamblers aren't really any better at betting than an average joe that knows the game/matchups. They just know what all the bets are, and they have gotten lucky with a huge bet at one point to build bankroll...

You don't ever hear about the guy that lost his mortgage to the bookie... you hear about the guy won millions betting on the Cubs.

Reverse line blah blah... the public is right slightly less than half the time...
Click to expand...


You're absolutely correct. The key to the markets is proper risk and bankroll management. Even with a very sharp edge, You're talking about being on the right side of the money a little over half of the time. However as you pointed out, the public is wrong a little more than half of the time. With proper bankroll management, you can create expected value. Here's where your models and coefficients can come into play and tell you which side of the money you'll want to be on. For me, my standard betting unit is 1% of my total bankroll. Going heavy for me is 5 units or more. I cap my bets at no more than 10% of my bankroll at any given time. Cash out at pre-determined points so you're always profiting.

The other key is finding where there is a potential misprice. As good as the bookmakers are, they don't always have enough information at hand to properly price matchups. This is especially true where you're matching up teams that rarely play each other, as there just aren't lots of common opponents. The opening couple of weeks of the CFB season is always when you can find some mispriced games. The World Cup for example had lots of mispriced matchups for the very same reason. The UFC PPV fight between Daniel Cormier v Stipe Miocic was incredibly mispriced since this was a LHW moving up to the HW division, the line opened up way too high, and the public put all the money on Stipe, even though DC is the greatest wrestler in UFC history (Yes, even better then Brock Lesnar, come at me Brock fans).
 
#1,962
#1,962
GoVolsDR said:
I'm currently developing a model, that I'll backtest against the 2017 NCAAF season, that looks at line movement and gives me a confidence coefficient that filters out movement from a noisy public (i.e. market overreactions to stories like injuries, suspensions, etc...)
Click to expand...
I would be very interested to hear more about this and if it works based on your 2017 test.
 
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#1,969
#1,969
bignewt said:
Braves trade 3 minor leaguers for Adam Dunn. If he can get hot I like it. He has a lot of pop.
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Adam Duvall. Not sure if I like it or not, but at least they tried to make a move. Did you see that the Nats are shopping Harper to see if there’s any interest?
 
#1,972
#1,972
OGbabyaviVol said:
Lol! I was like...is this ever going to end? It’s SC...can’t be that much to write about.
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Did the writer just list every person who ever played football for SC in like their history? And despite that, he still found the need for a paragraph at the end to touch upon various miscellaneous items.

What do you guys recommend for nausea?
 
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#1,973
#1,973
WinginFlorida said:
Did the writer just list every person who ever played football for SC in like their history? And despite that, he still found the need for a paragraph at the end to touch upon various miscellaneous items.

What do you guys recommend for nausea?
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I haven't read that much about cocks since I perused the Boogie Nights screenplay.
 
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#1,974
#1,974
GoVolsDR said:
I'm currently developing a model, that I'll backtest against the 2017 NCAAF season, that looks at line movement and gives me a confidence coefficient that filters out movement from a noisy public (i.e. market overreactions to stories like injuries, suspensions, etc...)
Click to expand...

Working on my mine now. I think I got an angle. In the middle of back testing it against the 2017 season now.
 
#1,975
#1,975
Don't know if everyone realizes this so here's a quick tip on filters. At the upper right there's a filter option. The cool thing is that recruit threads will have prefixes like the Class of 2019 Commitments thread. Use the filters option or the prefix (bolded orange) in front of a thread to just show threads with that prefix (i.e. all the 2019 recruits). It's still a work in progress as not all the threads are tagged yet but one more neat thing the new software does.

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