Official Bracketology Thread

#427
#427
cncchris33 said:
In a short-term sense, 7-5 would seem a little disappointing, and definitely not trending up to finish the season, but of those 11 games we are favored in, 6 of them are around the mid-60s percentile or lower. That probably means we will be favored by 3 or 4 points at most, and 5 of those 6 are on the road. So, 7-5 wouldn't surprise me, even if I did have to fight the urge to be disappointed with a 20-win regular season.
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At the end of the day the number one thing on my mind is making the tournament.

I sure would hate to see us give away all our work we’ve done and end up limping in as a 9 seed and getting bounced round 1.

Really hoping we finish strong. We’ve got an easier stretch coming up. 8-4 would be a good finish.
 
#429
#429
BigZiti09 said:
Is there a thread on preseason expectations?

Wondering if I gave mine.
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I started a pre-season thread and don’t know if you posted anything, but my prediction was 20 wins this year. Most people considered that optimistic.
 
#430
#430
BruinVol said:
3-4
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Depending on what we did in the SECT I think we could get a 2 seed in that scenario. Duke and Louisville both got 2 seeds last year with 8 losses, but I think Duke won the ACC if I remember correctly (I could be wrong).

Really though I'd be happy being seeded 3-4 though. I think that would still allow us to play in either Charlotte or Nashville, and then hopefully Atlanta after that.
 
#434
#434
BigZiti09 said:
We are favored in 11 out of 12 games and you want 7-5?
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Oh so now you wanna use advanced metrics and not the eye test?

@ISU
@UK
@Bama
@UGA
vs. Florida


Are all games that imo are probably toss up’s...I also don’t expect us to win every single game we are favored in, that doesn’t happen in conference play...I don’t see much wrong with 7-5, it wouldn’t be the awesome finish I’m sure we all hope for, but it would likely still have us ranked and in a favorable seed.
 
#438
#438
BigZiti09 said:
At the end of the day the number one thing on my mind is making the tournament.

I sure would hate to see us give away all our work we’ve done and end up limping in as a 9 seed and getting bounced round 1.

Really hoping we finish strong. We’ve got an easier stretch coming up. 8-4 would be a good finish.
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Vanderbilt finished the regular season with 17 wins and got a 9 seed, if we finish 20-10 I don’t think we are looking at a 9 seed.
 
#440
#440
bleedingTNorange said:
Classic response when had
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Uh, no.

The numbers were posted. You subscribe to that junk. Not me. So I was asking why you only want 7-5 when the computers say we are favored 11 of 12.

Anyways, your response is predictable. Always lowering the bar just in case we lose more than expected. It's a good way to keep yourself happy as a sports fan.
 
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#443
#443
BigZiti09 said:
Expectations for 2017-2018 Vols

Preseason thread - I'm all in this thing.

Didn't pin it down to a number of wins but I expected to make the dance.
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Putting your posts together in that thread makes it sound like 19-11 or 20-10 was your expectation...you say early in the thread you expect us to make the tourney but not comfortably, then later in the thread state that 19-20 wins should get us in.

If I misinterpreted your posts apologies, but that’s how they read to me, you expectation 19-20 wins and NCAAT appearance.
 
#445
#445
BigZiti09 said:
Uh, no.

The numbers were posted. You subscribe to that junk. Not me. So I was asking why you only want 7-5 when the computers say we are favored 11 of 12.

Anyways, your response is predictable. Always lowering the bar just in case we lose more than expected. It's a good way to keep yourself happy as a sports fan.
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Clearly you don’t understand how those percentages work...yes we are predicted to be the favorites in 11/12 by that model, however when you look at the cumulative percentages a prediction of 21-9 is what’s made. So 8-4 is ACTUALLY what the computer predicts will happen because it’s smart enough to realize you’re not likely to win every single game that you are favored 51%-65%, that slight favorites don’t win 100% of the time.

Make sense?
 
#446
#446
bleedingTNorange said:
Putting your posts together in that thread makes it sound like 19-11 or 20-10 was your expectation...you say early in the thread you expect us to make the tourney but not comfortably, then later in the thread state that 19-20 wins should get us in.

If I misinterpreted your posts apologies, but that’s how they read to me, you expectation 19-20 wins and NCAAT appearance.
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Side note...expectations and predictions are different. Which is why I'm always hesitant about throwing these kinda things out there. It gets twisted easily.

Bottom line though I expected us to be in the tournament. I also said 19-20 wins would get us there based on our schedule.

If we make the dance it will have met my expectations. Meaning what I expected at minimum. That doesn't mean I was thinking we should get to 25 or anything silly like that. Just that in my mind it was time to make the tournament. At some point you've got to make some real progress. We've done that.
 
#447
#447
VEKZY said:
I went back and looked. You said 18 or 19 wins.
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That's cool. If I had to guess now I'd say 21-9. They have raised the bar on my expectations. I'd still be ok with 19-11 though because I do think that would still get us in the tourney, but the seed wouldn't be ideal imo. I want to avoid that dreaded 7-10 seed where you have to face the 1 or 2 seed in the round of 32.
 
#449
#449
bleedingTNorange said:
Clearly you don’t understand how those percentages work...yes we are predicted to be the favorites in 11/12 by that model, however when you look at the cumulative percentages a prediction of 21-9 is what’s made. So 8-4 is ACTUALLY what the computer predicts will happen because it’s smart enough to realize you’re not likely to win every single game that you are favored 51%-65%, that slight favorites don’t win 100% of the time.

Make sense?
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I know exactly how they work. I was just using it to point out you were lowering the bar.

Why not hope to finish strong? Let's dare to be great.
 
#450
#450
BigZiti09 said:
Side note...expectations and predictions are different. Which is why I'm always hesitant about throwing these kinda things out there. It gets twisted easily.

Bottom line though I expected us to be in the tournament. I also said 19-20 wins would get us there based on our schedule.

If we make the dance it will have met my expectations. Meaning what I expected at minimum. That doesn't mean I was thinking we should get to 25 or anything silly like that. Just that in my mind it was time to make the tournament. At some point you've got to make some real progress. We've done that.
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Well you posted in the “expectations” thread and said it was your “prediction”...so I think you covered both bases.
 
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