D4H's 2017 NFL Draft Review (Best Picks, Best Drafts, and Predictions)

#803
#803
[Twitter]https://twitter.com/247Sports/status/931615912976961537[/Twitter]

Looks like Alvin has a really good chance of being offensive rookie of the year. Amazing that he's exceeding my expectations for him as a rookie. His Hall of Fame career is definitely well on its way.

Also he could break an NFL record this season. Just look at this:

[Twitter]https://twitter.com/CPatrickNFL/status/931596440576647168[/Twitter]
 
#804
#804
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Looks like Alvin has a really good chance of being offensive rookie of the year.
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Ehhh, I wouldn't go that far.

As eye-popping as Kamara's YPC number is, he barely slides into the top 25 as far as rushing yards. There are two rookies in the top 10, and it'd be really tough to think that it wouldn't be one of them. It almost certainly would have been Watson had he not gotten hurt.

But, Kamara's having a great year, and he might very well put up some absurd numbers down the stretch. It will be tough with Ingram still in front of him, but certainly not out of the question.
 
#809
#809
bamawriter said:
Ehhh, I wouldn't go that far.

As eye-popping as Kamara's YPC number is, he barely slides into the top 25 as far as rushing yards. There are two rookies in the top 10, and it'd be really tough to think that it wouldn't be one of them. It almost certainly would have been Watson had he not gotten hurt.

But, Kamara's having a great year, and he might very well put up some absurd numbers down the stretch. It will be tough with Ingram still in front of him, but certainly not out of the question.
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Alvin is on pace for around 1400 total yards and 10-11 TDs. And that's with his production going up in recent weeks. While Kareem Hunt (the presumed front-runner) has slowed down big time in recent weeks.

If Alvin keeps up his new pace of roughly 100+ yards per game from scrimmage and a TD, he could easily surpass Hunt by season's end and be ROY. Also being on a team that looks like a Super Bowl favorite will also help. the Saints are right now arguably the hottest team in football with Alvin being a major catalyst.

He's got a good chance.
 
#810
#810
bamawriter said:
Technically he's still on the bench.
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True. But he's been splitting touches 50/50 with Ingram in recent weeks. Ingram getting more carries while Alvin gets more receptions. But nearly a 50/50 split.

That never happened at Tennessee. Butch was too stupid to actually utilize Alvin and Jalen in the way Sean Payton is utilizing Ingram and Alvin. Saints are using way more 2 RB sets and are involving Alvin in the pass game heavy.

Alvin is getting more touches in the NFL than he did in college. And that is pathetic.
 
#811
#811
Totally agree Butch really did screw up by not utilizing Kamara. It was painful seeing Hurd get hit over and over behind the line. With just a little creativity Kamara could have put up some awesome numbers if given the chance.
 
#812
#812
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Here are the teams I felt had the best drafts.

Top 10 Draft Classes

3. New Orleans Saints - I didn't like their first 2 picks. Lattimore and Ramcyzk might turn out to be solid NFL players but neither struck me as potential stars in the NFL and I believe there were better players on the board that they could have selected. But I absolutely loved what they did from the 2nd round on. I had Marcus Williams rated as good as Malik Hooker so getting him in the second round when Hooker went in the top 15 was an absolute steal. I believe Williams has the potential to be an all-pro safety and one of the best center-fielders in the NFL. My favorite pick for the Saints in this draft was the selection of Alvin Kamara in the 3rd round. Talk about the perfect marriage. Kamara's skills are perfectly suited for what Sean Payton wants to do. I compared Alvin Kamara to Marshall Faulk early in the draft process. Going to New Orleans on that turf with Sean Payton gives him a good chance of living up to that comparison. When it comes to the rest of their picks, I believe Alex Anzalone, Trey Hendrickson, and Al-Quadin Muhammad all have the potential to be solid starters in this league. All around great draft by the Saints that should set them up to be a big time contender in the NFC for the next few years. Don't be surprised if the Saints have a season in 2017 like the Falcons had in 2016 with all these rookies on defense making big-time contributions for them.
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You guys love to jump on any little prediction I make that turns out wrong. How come nobody is patting me on the back for this very prophetic prediction about the Saints draft class back in April? I pretty much predicted the rise of the Saints defense in 2017 thanks to the rookies they drafted. I said they could lead them to a super bowl run like the Falcons rookies did in 2016.

I was also right about Alvin Kamara and Sean Payton being the perfect marriage. I was right about Marcus Williams being a stud at free safety. While Malik Hooker is out for the Colts with an ACL tear, Marcus Williams is playing single high safety at a high level for New Orleans. Also before going out with injury Alex Anzalone was playing at a high level. And Trey Hendrickson has been a solid contributor this season. I was wrong about Marshon Lattimore not being a star. He's been an absolute stud so far at CB and Ramcyzk has been solid. I still don't think Lattimore will be injury free moving forward. His hamstrings are as much of a concern as Deshaun Watson's knees. But as of right now, he's been as good as any rookie defender in the NFL.

My prediction on the Saints rookie class is about as close to money as it gets. :)
 
#813
#813
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Alvin is on pace for around 1400 total yards and 10-11 TDs. And that's with his production going up in recent weeks. While Kareem Hunt (the presumed front-runner) has slowed down big time in recent weeks.

If Alvin keeps up his new pace of roughly 100+ yards per game from scrimmage and a TD, he could easily surpass Hunt by season's end and be ROY. Also being on a team that looks like a Super Bowl favorite will also help. the Saints are right now arguably the hottest team in football with Alvin being a major catalyst.

He's got a good chance.
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I read something a few days saying Hunt has had a big change in yards before contact. Evidently the line has taken a step back and Hunt hasn't had the chances he had in the first few games where he was putting up monster numbers. No idea if this is true (I haven't watched tape or studied the numbers) but thought it was interesting.

Kamara being more of a swiss army knife type back, will he ever be taking the majority of the snaps? I kinda like him splitting time with Ingram.
 
#814
#814
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
You guys love to jump on any little prediction I make that turns out wrong. How come nobody is patting me on the back for this very prophetic prediction about the Saints draft class back in April?
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Because when you're wrong, 99% of the time you swear up and down it's not your fault and pass the blame somewhere else. When you're right, it comes across extremely arrogant and condescending. Maybe you just don't understand it, but people enjoy rooting against you because the 'holier than thou' type attitude you have.

It's hard to take someone serious when they make about a thousand predictions as well.
 
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#815
#815
For the record I still think the Steelers will have the best draft class in 2017 when its all said and done. Dobbs will be a Hall of Fame QB. Cam Sutton will be a Hall of Fame CB. James Conner will be a pro-bowl RB for many years. Same with JuJu Smith-Schuster at WR. Remember I was practically the only person who had JuJu rated as the 2nd best WR coming out in the 2017 draft. Everyone else was on the Mike Williams and John Ross train.

I still believe in Brad Kaaya and the Lions draft class as well. But now I think the Saints might be better. It was close between those two teams when I was putting the list together. If ya'll remember, before I edited that post, I actually had the Saints as my #2 draft class in 2017 ahead of Detroit. But at the last moment I bumped Detroit back ahead of them because of the fact I viewed Brad Kaaya as a franchise QB. We'll see how this ultimately plays out but I like both the Saints and Lions draft classes in 2017 a lot.
 
#816
#816
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
If Alvin keeps up his new pace of roughly 100+ yards per game from scrimmage and a TD, he could easily surpass Hunt by season's end and be ROY.
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I'm going to guess you mean over the last 5 games when Kamara started getting more touches after AP was dumped.

Last five games:

Kamara - 112 yards from scrimmage per game against defenses with an average ranking of 22nd.
Hunt - 94.4 yfs per game against defenses with an average ranking of 14th.

If they both keep up their current pace, Kamara will finish with roughly 1575 total yards, while Hunt will finish with 1800.

The Saints finish against defenses with an average ranking of 14th.

The Chiefs finish against defenses with an average ranking of 21st.
 
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#817
#817
LittleCat said:
I read something a few days saying Hunt has had a big change in yards before contact. Evidently the line has taken a step back and Hunt hasn't had the chances he had in the first few games where he was putting up monster numbers. No idea if this is true (I haven't watched tape or studied the numbers) but thought it was interesting.

Kamara being more of a swiss army knife type back, will he ever be taking the majority of the snaps? I kinda like him splitting time with Ingram.
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Interestingly I predicted Hunt would back down to earth. The Chiefs and Hunt just surprised people to start the year. Then teams started getting tape on them and game-planned to stop what they do well. Now we're seeing the results of it.

Its funny how a few weeks ago people were trying to force me to say I was wrong about Hunt and that he's an elite RB. I stuck to my guns and said nope. He's good. Better than I thought coming out of the draft. But he's not elite like Alvin Kamara or James Conner. And just as I predicted he's come back down to earth with very sub-par games the last month or so.

Kareem Hunt will be a solid starting RB going forward. Much like Maurice Jones-Drew back in the day. But he's not special like Alvin. Alvin is a generational player on the same level as Marshall Faulk and Terrell Davis. Guys like him don't come along very often.

Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara will define the RB position for the next generation.
 
#818
#818
bamawriter said:
I'm going to guess you mean over the last 5 games when Kamara started getting more touches after AP was dumped.

Last five games:

Kamara - 112 yards from scrimmage per game against defenses with an average ranking of 22nd.
Hunt - 94.4 yfs per game against defenses with an average ranking of 14th.

If they both keep up their current pace, Kamara will finish with roughly 1575 total yards, while Hunt will finish with 1800.

The Saints finish against defenses with an average ranking of 14th.

The Chiefs finish against defenses with an average ranking of 21st.
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Thanks for the statistical breakdown. I also think Alvin ends up with around 1,500 total yards by the end of the season.

If the Saints are still hot and have the best or second best record in the NFC, I think Alvin will edge him out. Total TDs will probably be the tie-breaker. And Alvin will have the momentum.
 
#819
#819
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Thanks for the statistical breakdown. I also think Alvin ends up with around 1,500 total yards by the end of the season.

If the Saints are still hot and have the best or second best record in the NFC, I think Alvin will edge him out. Total TDs will probably be the tie-breaker. And Alvin will have the momentum.
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Not saying it's impossible. I just think it's unlikely, particularly if Kamara doesn't have a start to his name by year end.
 
#820
#820
bamawriter said:
Not saying it's impossible. I just think it's unlikely, particularly if Kamara doesn't have a start to his name by year end.
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Official starts don't matter. This is largely a statistical award with extra credit given to team success. If Alvin has 1,500 yards and 10+ TDs at the end of the year he'll be right there. And if New Orleans ends being having the best record in the NFC, that'll help his case even more. Especially if he has highlight plays like he did 2 weeks ago against the Bucs.

Great Stats + Highlight Plays + Team Success = Rookie of the Year
 
#821
#821
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Official starts don't matter. This is largely a statistical award with extra credit given to team success. If Alvin has 1,500 yards and 10+ TDs at the end of the year he'll be right there. And if New Orleans ends being having the best record in the NFC, that'll help his case even more. Especially if he has highlight plays like he did 2 weeks ago against the Bucs.

Great Stats + Highlight Plays + Team Success = Rookie of the Year
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Why would stats matter?
 
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#825
#825
Alvin Kamara: The one who got away from 31 NFL teams (and Alabama) - New Orleans Saints Blog- ESPN


Sean Payton raved about Kamara's football IQ during the Saints' on-campus visit to Tennessee, saying he even joined in the quarterback meeting and showed off his knowledge of the scheme. Earlier this summer, Payton compared Kamara's intelligence and comprehension of the routes to that of Marshall Faulk, whom Payton said was "one of the smarter players I ever coached."
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Oh lawd
 
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