24/7vol
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Teams 120 v 121 comparison by position group
- Thread starter HeyHeyUT
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MyBloodRunnethOrange
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OneVolNation
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volfannbama
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OneVolNation
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When I first found out you were engaging in this scientific study, I must admit that I was somewhat anxious about the results due to how cold and unforgiving the tests and research methods would be because of no room for bias.
However, as a fellow researcher and scientist, I am moved to say your strict adherence to the clinical trial protocol and commitment to objectivity in research with pure observance of the spirit of the scientific method is a credit to this community. You deserve to be commended.
The trial has been conducted in accordance with the ICH E6, the Code of Federal Regulations on the Protection of Human Subjects (45 CFR Part 46), and the <NIH IC> Terms of Award. The Principal Investigator assures that no deviation from, or changes to the protocol took place without prior agreement from the sponsor and documented approval from the Institutional Review Board (IRB), except where necessary to eliminate an immediate hazard(s) to the trial participants. All personnel involved in the conduct of this study have completed Human Subjects Protection Training.
Indeed, 15-0. :clapping:
Go VOLS!
The lack of production of Hurd, JRM, and Sutton heavily contributed to the disappointments from 2016. To me, when comparing teams 120 to 121 those 3 have to be omitted from 120. In their place I would put Kamara and Malone who are leaving.
Vereen was a warrior for us, but not an elite talent. Barnett was a once every 30 years type of DE who will be sorely missed but there is a boat load of talent at DE which have been waiting on an opportunity so I don't expect the drop off to be massive. Really wish Malone had of come back but if he can get drafted in rounds 3 or higher than it was the right choice. Kamara was an underutilized asset which I suspect was mostly due to the Hurd fiasco. Kelly and company ought to be equally productive to what team 120 produced.
QB is the key as Dobbs turned a losing play into a winner consistently. There will be a drop off from a senior Dobbs to whoever wins the job, the question is how much? I agree with the OP, that's what will make or break team 121 IMO, JMHO, TIFWIW, AARP
Which 2 plays in which 2 games? Which one play cost us the game vs Vandy? Which one play vs TAM? Which one play from Bama game? I can maybe give you SCar since Dobbs' TD run was called back, but that happened earlier in the game. I can literally point to 2 and only 2 plays that directly impacted whether we won or lost vs App State and Georgia. Can you with the other games? See what I did there?
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Seldom does anyone here admit that they've skewed the data to support their position. But your info is still wrong. If you include the TE's then Malone and Croom are still gone. Add Kamara to them and over half of UT's WR yards are gone. If you're an opposing DC, three guys scared you as receivers last fall. Malone, Kamara, and Jennings... two of them are gone and there are no obvious replacements for them. Both guys were 5* recruits who DID eventually perform like it.
savannahfan
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Love the thread OP. Here's the way I'm looking at it, considering players losses, coaching changes, and all important maturity increases year to year. I'm assuming the worst injury ridden year in history has to improve.
I'll do mine in a + or - format. All mho of course.
Defense:
DT (++) All mature, play in the games, and overcome loss of 1 Sr.
DE (-) We'll be good here. But, when you lose those 2, you can't expect a +.
ILB (+) Starter & backup will improve
OLB (+) Maturity and talent take a major jump. Our departed stud was out a majority of 16'. TKJr too?
CB/N (+) Only + b/c of maturity, depth, and new coaching. Our NFL stud was absent significantly in 16.
S (wash) Barely. If TK moves to OLB, then we get better athletes but lose expertise
Offense:
QB (-) While in about as good a position as possible, we still lose All-SEC QB.
RB (-) Plenty of talent here, but like QB we lose 2 (1 1/2?) studs from 16' team strength
WR (+) Slight + b/c of 3 good looking FR and pperclassmen mature offsetting 1 NFL draftee
TE (-) Wolf is good but flatlined? Nobody to replace Croom.
G (+) Weisman loss is less than maturity of others and new FR, FR inside
T (++) Expecting big improvement in LT, maybe FR pushes for PT?
ST:
K (+) More practice
P (wash) Hard to see this guy getting much better = beast now.
PR (-) Another strong position, but we lose 2 studs at position
KR (+) Better depth to a proven beast.
Coaching (++): I'm going big here first b/c I'm a hopeless fan. Secondly, we've had staff improvements it appears. Third, and most impacting, is that our HC is "back to the wall" for the first time in his career. I'm believing he cuts that extracurriculars and goes full football focus in 17'.
Summary: With so many +s, even tho some may be slight, I'm looking for an improved 2017 at this point. QB will get the biggest ???, followed by DE and RB. But our staff has built great depth at those 3 positions, so hopefully those losses are mitigated. Plus, I'm hoping the taste of disappointment in 16' is a focusing tool for 17'.
Prediction: Vols 10-2 regular season. Losses to Bama & LSU. SEC Champions defeating Bama in rematch. Lose first round of playoffs as 4th seed. In December VN melts down at all the possible NCAA and NFL opportunities to take away our HoF coach and staff! No sweat.
Would love to "like".
Whole post seems to me to be right on,,,, until "prediction". You seem to have lost rational thought process at this point. Maybe just a little optimistic?
volfannbama
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My intended point was that Hurd and Williams bolting, and O'Brien kicking himself off the team...I think, had negative effect on team chemistry, though it's tough to prove. For first 3 years, one thing you could say is that Butch's played hard, and had minimal penalties/turnovers compared to others...all around more disciplined, compared to 2016. So, if they get back to playing solid, mistake free football as a cohesive and focused unit, I think we'll be in good shape.
LOL... A coach having his "back to the wall" and the assumption that the team has a "chip on its shoulder"... Really? Those are "reasons" to believe this team will do better than the last? That's not just deluded. That is pathetic.
Using livefaith's system:
DT- (-) The wheels began to come off when O'Brien was booted. No one really showed the capacity to replace him. The two most talented DT's are coming off serious injuries. Tuttle's injury is said to be worse than the one that sidelined then slowed him for a considerable portion of '16. Just one minus is kind.
DE- (---) Gone are Barnett, Vereen, and Lewis. That is 19.5 of UT's 30 sacks and there are no obvious replacements. The only other guy who posted more than 1 sack on the season was Vickers.
LB- (+) Plus only because it would be difficult to bring pretty much everyone who played back without getting a little better... but it could get worse if DKjr or McDowell get hurt.
CB/N- (-) Obviously Sutton hurts but Foreman was probably the next most consistent guy. He's gone too. When Sutton went down, the lack of talent was obvious. There's only one minus here because guys like Buchanan can be brought along. Also, this group is automatically upgraded from a pure talent standpoint if Byrd is moved over.
S- (++) Solid group gets more experienced. TK jr leads the team in tackles returning. Even if he moves to a hybrid role, there are plenty of really good players to step in.
QB- (-) The offense will change because of the new OC and because it was built around Dobbs. UT will be searching for a new identity and that typically hasn't been a fast process under Jones.
RB- (--) Kelly has talent but he never gets the touches he got if Hurd hadn't quit. UT returns its third best RB with absolutely nothing proven behind him. Losing Kamara was huge since he led and set the standard for the group.
WR- (--) Malone had a break out season. Jennings made big plays but wasn't the consistent force that Malone was. Kamara made the lateral passing game go. The top 4 returning WR's are Jennings, Byrd, Smith, and Johnson. George and Callaway return with one catch each. That's it for WR's. Six guys returning and 4 had less than 100 yds for the entire '16 season. This is football and unexpected things happen all the time. But to expect Freshmen or even those bottom 4 guys to fill the void left by Malone is just not reasonable.
TE's-(-) Wolf is good, not great. Behind him there's really not much production returning either from a blocking or receiving standpoint. The only reason it wasn't more minuses is that they weren't all that good in '16.
OT- (++) Experience and hopefully health for Hall, Richmond, and Kendrick plus the addition of Trey Smith should make this a very, very good group... assuming the coaching improves.
OG/C- (+) Another year of development and hopefully health. S&C probably means more to the OL and their health than any other group.
ST- (+) Sutton again hurts but Berry should return and there are a lot of athletic guys to compete for the return positions. Kick coverage is a question.
This is probably an 8 win roster. Even by Daj's numbers (Daj is a Jones defender), Jones is a (-1) coach at UT. That means he underperforms his talent according to Daj's recruit ranking matrix by one game per year. My argument is that he's lost 8 games in his first 4 years that should have been wins.... but let's stick with Daj.
I think his recent thread he said this was a 9 win team.... which means 8 wins if he's right about Jones' impact and possibly 7 if I am. Jones has to break a 4 year pattern of underperformance to win 9 or more.
His system does not account for attrition. It assumes that over time all teams will be roughly equal. It also depends somewhat on programs recruiting in roughly the same range of talent... that the quality of their classes will alternate around their "average" in a normal 3 sigma fashion.
Using livefaith's system:
DT- (-) The wheels began to come off when O'Brien was booted. No one really showed the capacity to replace him. The two most talented DT's are coming off serious injuries. Tuttle's injury is said to be worse than the one that sidelined then slowed him for a considerable portion of '16. Just one minus is kind.
DE- (---) Gone are Barnett, Vereen, and Lewis. That is 19.5 of UT's 30 sacks and there are no obvious replacements. The only other guy who posted more than 1 sack on the season was Vickers.
LB- (+) Plus only because it would be difficult to bring pretty much everyone who played back without getting a little better... but it could get worse if DKjr or McDowell get hurt.
CB/N- (-) Obviously Sutton hurts but Foreman was probably the next most consistent guy. He's gone too. When Sutton went down, the lack of talent was obvious. There's only one minus here because guys like Buchanan can be brought along. Also, this group is automatically upgraded from a pure talent standpoint if Byrd is moved over.
S- (++) Solid group gets more experienced. TK jr leads the team in tackles returning. Even if he moves to a hybrid role, there are plenty of really good players to step in.
QB- (-) The offense will change because of the new OC and because it was built around Dobbs. UT will be searching for a new identity and that typically hasn't been a fast process under Jones.
RB- (--) Kelly has talent but he never gets the touches he got if Hurd hadn't quit. UT returns its third best RB with absolutely nothing proven behind him. Losing Kamara was huge since he led and set the standard for the group.
WR- (--) Malone had a break out season. Jennings made big plays but wasn't the consistent force that Malone was. Kamara made the lateral passing game go. The top 4 returning WR's are Jennings, Byrd, Smith, and Johnson. George and Callaway return with one catch each. That's it for WR's. Six guys returning and 4 had less than 100 yds for the entire '16 season. This is football and unexpected things happen all the time. But to expect Freshmen or even those bottom 4 guys to fill the void left by Malone is just not reasonable.
TE's-(-) Wolf is good, not great. Behind him there's really not much production returning either from a blocking or receiving standpoint. The only reason it wasn't more minuses is that they weren't all that good in '16.
OT- (++) Experience and hopefully health for Hall, Richmond, and Kendrick plus the addition of Trey Smith should make this a very, very good group... assuming the coaching improves.
OG/C- (+) Another year of development and hopefully health. S&C probably means more to the OL and their health than any other group.
ST- (+) Sutton again hurts but Berry should return and there are a lot of athletic guys to compete for the return positions. Kick coverage is a question.
This is probably an 8 win roster. Even by Daj's numbers (Daj is a Jones defender), Jones is a (-1) coach at UT. That means he underperforms his talent according to Daj's recruit ranking matrix by one game per year. My argument is that he's lost 8 games in his first 4 years that should have been wins.... but let's stick with Daj.
I think his recent thread he said this was a 9 win team.... which means 8 wins if he's right about Jones' impact and possibly 7 if I am. Jones has to break a 4 year pattern of underperformance to win 9 or more.
His system does not account for attrition. It assumes that over time all teams will be roughly equal. It also depends somewhat on programs recruiting in roughly the same range of talent... that the quality of their classes will alternate around their "average" in a normal 3 sigma fashion.
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How do you know they were the source of the negative chemistry? Hurd at least seemed to be responding to Jones' failure to follow through on commitments made to him. You can argue that Hurd shouldn't expect or get commitments from the HC... but it is still Jones' responsibility to either not make them, follow through, or manage the situation. If more I formation runs weren't promised then Hurd may have walked this time last year.
The '16 roster with a very few exceptions was the same as the '15 roster. They didn't really lose leaders. Jones felt so strongly about team chemistry that he named permanent captains.
With the loss of Dobbs and many positive leaders, there is now a huge leadership void. In as much as that impacts the ultimate performance of a team... it cannot be considered a plus or minus at this point but the period during which it works itself out... is generally a "minus".
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