Paths to 270

#102
#102
NEOCON said:
So our options are a mad man or a criminal who will have to either be pardoned by Obama or herself so she doesn't go to jail?

How the hell did this country get to this point?
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Both parties running someone that, if anyone else just about had been nominated on the other side, would be crushed. It's the worst establishment candidate vs the worst non-establishment candidate duking it out to see who gets to ruin the country. Man it's great to get to pick our poison at least right?
 
#103
#103
NEOCON said:
So our options are a mad man or a criminal who will have to either be pardoned by Obama or herself so she doesn't go to jail?

How the hell did this country get to this point?
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The media pushed these 2 from the beginning. They knew a Hillary v Trump would bring outrageous ratings and that's who they pushed for. Can you imagine if this was Bernie Sanders vs Ted Cruz??? No one would give a crap about the debates.

This was media driven from the get go
 
#104
#104
The more I look at RCp and 538's polling data, the more I think this election will be decided by the House of Representatives. That has not happened since 1876. Can't the house choose whoever they want in that scenario and aren't limited by just those two candidates?
 
#106
#106
mrorange211 said:
The more I look at RCp and 538's polling data, the more I think this election will be decided by the House of Representatives. That has not happened since 1876. Can't the house choose whoever they want in that scenario and aren't limited by just those two candidates?
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I think after the first ballot they can but not entirely sure. Maybe 72 can shed some light, he lived through the last one.
 
#107
#107
I think it is a virtual certainty at this point that the popular vote is going to be extremely close - could be as close as something like a million votes or less.

The electoral vote could be close too, but if Donald doesn't get a clean sweep of the toss up states, then Hillary would get into the 290s/low 300s and win more comfortably. It certainly is not impossible for him to win, but he has a much finer needle to thread. He has to be near-perfect.
 
#108
#108
golfballs said:
where does that number come from?
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It's John Stossel and another person that weights chances of winning each state and then uses the averages to see who has the easier path to get to 270 you can click on it from right side of RCP site...538 has it around 68-32
 
#109
#109
I'm thinking there is a good chance the election will not be over next Tuesday. Remember, we are voting for electors meeting on December 19th who will actually cast a vote for President. I believe there are around 20 states that don't legally bind them. They can vote however they want and it seems like there may be subsequent events regarding Hillary that could cause them to flip. We may be going through this again, in an even more ugly and chaotic fashion. The electors meet on December 19th and their votes are not counted in Congress until January 6th.
 
#111
#111
Ernest T. Vol said:
I'm thinking there is a good chance the election will not be over next Tuesday. Remember, we are voting for electors meeting on December 19th who will actually cast a vote for President. I believe there are around 20 states that don't legally bind them. They can vote however they want and it seems like there may be subsequent events regarding Hillary that could cause them to flip. We may be going through this again, in an even more ugly and chaotic fashion. The electors meet on December 19th and their votes are not counted in Congress until January 6th.
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Nah, those electors are hardcore party votes..they wouldn't switch no matter what happens to either of them
 
#112
#112
New poll had Clinton and Trump tied at 44 in Michigan Michael Moore even saod he didn't trust the polls there
 
#116
#116
VolnJC said:
New poll had Clinton and Trump tied at 44 in Michigan Michael Moore even saod he didn't trust the polls there
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There is not any poll on Real Clear Politics that shows it even in Michigan going as far back as July. The RCP average has Clinton +4.8. The closest poll on RCP is Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell which has Clinton at +3. There is no way that Trump wins Michigan.
 
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#117
#117
#119
#119
VolnJC said:
I didn't say it was on RCP...if it wasn't close then why did Hillary campaign in Detroit today?



EXCLUSIVE POLL: Trump Surging Ahead Of Clinton In Michigan | The Daily Caller
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That is not an unbiased poll. It was conducted by Strategic National which is a Republican leaning firm based in Michigan. That is the reason that it doesn't appear on RCP. That is explained if you read the article which follows the 'poll'. It is important enough and close enough to merit attention from the Clinton campaign but let's not kid ourselves about who is winning Michigan.
 
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#120
#120
BowlBrother85 said:
That is not an unbiased poll. It was conducted by Strategic National which is a Republican leaning firm based in Michigan. That is the reason that it doesn't appear on RCP. That is explained if you read the article which follows the 'poll'. It is important enough and close enough to merit attention from the Clinton campaign but let's not kid ourselves about who is winning Michigan.
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Yeah its a GOP leaning company but the internals were correct

The survey reported that 39*percent of the respondents were affiliated with the Democratic Party, 34*percent affiliated with the GOP, 21 percent affiliated with an independent or third party, and 5 percent said they were “unsure” of their party*affiliation.

Read more: EXCLUSIVE POLL: Trump Surging Ahead Of Clinton In Michigan | The Daily Caller
 
#121
#121
VolnJC said:
Yeah its a GOP leaning company but the internals were correct

The survey reported that 39*percent of the respondents were affiliated with the Democratic Party, 34*percent affiliated with the GOP, 21 percent affiliated with an independent or third party, and 5 percent said they were “unsure” of their party*affiliation.

Read more: EXCLUSIVE POLL: Trump Surging Ahead Of Clinton In Michigan | The Daily Caller
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Garbage in and garbage out. Strategic National has a history of skewing numbers in favor of Republicans which is why they don't appear on RCP. The RCP average poll really is the most trustworthy indicator. Again, Clinton +4.8.
 
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#122
#122
#123
#123
VolnJC said:
Again, RCP average Clinton +21.4...final results Sanders +1.5
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary
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Detroit Free Press

Sanders scores upset in Michigan's Democratic Primary


Polls favoring Clinton missed voters' passion, job concerns, dissatisfaction with status quo

The presidential polls were off. Way off.

They indicated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would easily win the state's primary election. The polls in the last week had Clinton as the victor by anywhere from 13% to 37% over U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. The Detroit Free Press poll taken last week had Clinton up by 25 points.

And while Clinton had broad institutional support from many elected officials and some unions, she didn't have the passionate following that was the hallmark of Sanders' campaign in Michigan.

While many said the race in Michigan would come down to demographics — and Clinton’s advantage with African-American voters — exit polling done for CNN suggested it was more about issues and widespread dissatisfaction with the federal government.


DETROIT FREE PRESS


"The trade issue was a late-breaking issue that not only affected the whole discourse of the campaign. I think it turned a lot of voters away from Hillary Clinton," said Bernie Porn, president of EPIC/MRA, the Lansing-based pollster who did the poll for the Free Press and other media partners. "Even in our poll, she was not doing as well with union members."

Indeed, two of the most influential unions in the state — the United Auto Workers and the AFL-CIO — declined to endorse anyone in the race.

He also said the electorate showed some Clinton fatigue Tuesday.

"The same thing happened with Bush, and he got out of the race. Clearly, there was much more passion from the people who were attracted to Sanders," Porn said. "She was perceived as too close to business, and all that Wall Street stuff may have also connected."


New York businessman Donald Trump also did well among voters who felt economically unstable, and his victory was more in line with the polls predicted. He won nearly 37% of the vote and 25 of Michigan's 59 delegates, followed by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who had about 25%, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who had 24%. They each were allotted 17 delegates. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio finished a distant fourth, with 9% of the vote and no delegates..

"He appeals to people who, whether they admit it or not, considerable themselves vulnerable in this society and they think Donald Trump has their backs," said Farmington Hills political consultant Paul Welday.

CNN’s exit poll, which surveyed 1,601 Michigan Democratic voters as they left their precincts Tuesday, showed that 58% of them believed trade with other countries costs jobs, compared to 30% who believe they create them. And among those who believe trade costs jobs, Sanders won by a large margin, 58%-41%.

Meanwhile, most voters in the exit poll — 70% — declared themselves angry or dissatisfied with the federal government, and of those voters, 54% backed Sanders compared to 45% for Clinton.

Clinton did far better with black voters, as expected, winning that bloc, 65%-31%, but that was a much smaller margin than in Southern states, and black voters made up less than one-quarter of those voting. And among the 68% of voters who were white, Sanders won handily, 57%-41%.

Clinton led among self-described Democrats who made up 69% of those voting, with a 57%-41% edge over Sanders. But among the 28% who voted in the primary who described themselves as independents, Sanders won handily, 71%-28%.
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The Democratic Dependence on White Working-Class Voters

The larger number of white working-class voters implies that Democrats are far more dependent on winning white working-class voters, and therefore more vulnerable to a populist candidate like Mr. Trump.

Over all, 34 percent of Mr. Obama’s supporters were white voters without a college degree, compared with 25 percent in the exit polls, according to an Upshot statistical model that integrated census data, actual results and 15,000 interviews from various pre-election surveys. The model yields a full alternative to the exit polls that assume an older, whiter electorate like the one depicted by the census. (For those interested in the details about our estimates, we’ve written a technical sidebar.)

“This is a great way to deal with the limits of traditional surveys,” said Andrew Gelman, a professor at Columbia who popularized the statistical technique known as multilevel regression and post-stratification. “It smooths out noise, reduces bias and arrives at better estimates for smaller groups.”

Mr. Obama’s dependence among white voters might seem surprising in light of the 2012 postelection consensus. But it won’t be surprising if you think just a little further back — to the pre-election story line. Mr. Obama’s advantage heading into the election was thought to be a “Midwestern Firewall” — a big edge in Midwestern battlegrounds where white working-class voters supported the auto bailout and were skeptical of Mr. Romney, who was criticized for his time at Bain Capital.

The pre-election story line was tossed aside when the national exit polls showed an electorate that was even more diverse than it was in 2008, while showing Mr. Obama faring worse among white voters than any Democrat since Walter Mondale in 1984.

But the Upshot analysis shows that all of Mr. Obama’s weaknesses were in the South — defined as the former Confederacy plus Oklahoma, Missouri, Kentucky and West Virginia — where he won just 26 percent.

Outside the South, he won 46 percent of white voters, even running ahead of Mr. Kerry and Al Gore in earlier elections.

Many of the regions where Mr. Obama lost ground in white areas outside the South — like the energy-producing areas of North Dakota or Appalachia, Mormon Utah, culturally Southern stretches of Southern Illinois, or Mr. Kerry and Mr. Romney’s home state of Massachusetts — were exceptions that proved the rule.


http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/u...ple-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html?_r=1
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The reason Michigan could go to Trump is that the electorate of Michigan in 2012 was dominated by working class whites (52.5%). This is a largely republican group but a significant number have been voting democrat since 1988. Clinton is dramatically underperforming in this group and Trump is killing it. This is what Michael Moore and others have been warning about.
 
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#124
#124
Simply Incredible news out of Nevada tonight!! According to Ralston, Clark county set a new record today. 55k votes and counting, state has extended voting tonight:

@ralstonreports They just extended voting hours at a Mexican supermarket to 10 PM. Close to 1,000 voters in line. If you have a panic button GOP, find it.

@ralstonreports Hispanics waiting on line for hours to vote against Donald Trump in the state that could block him from the presidency is just too much.
 
#125
#125
Of all the hateful things Trump has said over this campaign, it's going to be one of the first hateful things he said that likely does him in.

Hispanic early vote in FL already exceeds total Hispanic vote in 2012.

Hispanic vote at historic levels in NC.

I love Bad Hombres!!!
 

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