The apparent disconnect between store closings, the stock market, and the economy

#29
#29
lawgator1 said:
So yesterday Macy's stock climbs 17 % in one day when it announces that it is going to close 100 stores. I would like to discuss the economic and philosophical questions about "value" that we attach to that.

On the one hand, people working at 100 stores are about to get fired. Haven't seen the numbers, but what's that? At least 10,000 people, right? So it hurts them financially, at least for awhile. And it is another nick adding to the continued hemorrhaging of the middle class, which we just don't need.

So in a sense, when I heard this, I thought it was bad news for the economy.

But then of course, the stock goes up. Now I understand why, in that it means they are getting rid of 100 underperforming stores, but is no one taking account of the fact that this is a problem for the business model of brick and mortar retailers? I mean, the whole sector got a nice bump. For failure? For a long term problem?

Then I heard a guy on CNBC talking about how "over-stored" the US is, relative to the rest of the world. We have 7.3 feet of retail space for every person in the country. Japan and France have 1.7 sq ft. The UK has 1.3 sq ft.

Here's an article about it.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/11/macys-finally-starts-addressing-the-overstored-retail-landscape.html

So what we have, it seems to me, is further confirmation of the shift in the economy, away from traditional models for sales, and towards the internet and technology. Good news for the investment class, but bad news for workers?

Is this what Trump is tapping into? I think it is. I think its the fear of the inevitable shift to new tech and industries that has this huge swath of millions of people just terribly depressed at their prospects 5 and 10 years from now.

I don't know. I guess its glee for some, disaster for others.
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There is a big disconnect between the govt data and the media reports and what is actually going on in the markets.

I have been hammering this point home over and over again in the stock markets thread and have been getting thrashed. I've said it time and time again, get your laughs in now. But in the end, the person who laughs last will be the victor. Govt data in respect to GDP, unemployment and inflation are all manipulated statistics. For me highlighting these points, I get labeled a Doomsdayer or "sky is falling" tinfoil hat.

Now, even people such as yourself with a mustard's seeds worth of common sense are now beginning to scratch your heads.

I've tried to tell you guys before. Will you listen now?
 
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#30
#30
lawgator1 said:
So yesterday Macy's stock climbs 17 % in one day when it announces that it is going to close 100 stores. I would like to discuss the economic and philosophical questions about "value" that we attach to that.

On the one hand, people working at 100 stores are about to get fired. Haven't seen the numbers, but what's that? At least 10,000 people, right? So it hurts them financially, at least for awhile. And it is another nick adding to the continued hemorrhaging of the middle class, which we just don't need.

So in a sense, when I heard this, I thought it was bad news for the economy.

But then of course, the stock goes up. Now I understand why, in that it means they are getting rid of 100 underperforming stores, but is no one taking account of the fact that this is a problem for the business model of brick and mortar retailers? I mean, the whole sector got a nice bump. For failure? For a long term problem?

Then I heard a guy on CNBC talking about how "over-stored" the US is, relative to the rest of the world. We have 7.3 feet of retail space for every person in the country. Japan and France have 1.7 sq ft. The UK has 1.3 sq ft.

Here's an article about it.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/11/macys-finally-starts-addressing-the-overstored-retail-landscape.html

So what we have, it seems to me, is further confirmation of the shift in the economy, away from traditional models for sales, and towards the internet and technology. Good news for the investment class, but bad news for workers?

Is this what Trump is tapping into? I think it is. I think its the fear of the inevitable shift to new tech and industries that has this huge swath of millions of people just terribly depressed at their prospects 5 and 10 years from now.

I don't know. I guess its glee for some, disaster for others.
Click to expand...

Oh, one moire thing about this "over-stored" nonsense. If being "over-stored" was the issue, then would that mean that sales numbers online would make up the difference? The problem is that right now, online sales are not making up the difference in many areas. So really, the "over-stored" meme is a distraction from the truth. Consumers are tapped out.
 
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#31
#31
lawgator1 said:
Side note: I'd say at least 2/3 of the people I went to high school with went to work at a mall somewhere to do sales, either in the last summer of school or shortly after. Some moved on. Others did not. I, myself, worked retail at Christmas time at an electronics store. Not just that store, but that mall, are gone now. And the chain closed for good some years ago.

What are high school juniors and seniors going to do for jobs now? Fast food the last refuge? Ugh.
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The USD is too strong right now, but once everything resets and the USD explodes, then you will see a rejuvenation in US manufacturing and industrialization. Unfortunately, that will also mean that we will be the low cost wage provider for widgets. But, you will see an boost in low wage industrial/manufacturing jobs as we become the new China/Mexico, and the weekend trips to Walmart and Target will seem like trips to Rodeo Drive for the average American because we will not be able to exchange our worthless currency for real finished products at a low, low cost anymore.

That is the sad, honest truth.
 
#32
#32
LouderVol said:
gas stations, hotels, any tourist situation. or heaven forbid they get out and work outside.
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We've had at least 2 generations worth of presidential administrations, media and family programming to discourage Americas youth from the trades and labor. Until you blow up the stigma that was created for trades and labor jobs, you cannot blame the youth for not pursuing these career paths. They are 19 year old skulls of mush, most of them with no father in the home to instill logic and discipline. I'm not coming down on these generations behind me because they were given poor advice.
 
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#33
#33
lawgator1 said:
That's my point. I'm just saying we the world has to adjust expectations for how to make a living, and to appreciate how many people are being marginalized by this process, even if our 401ks might be doing a little better because of it.

Trump is tapping into the other side of that equation.

Side note: I'd say at least 2/3 of the people I went to high school with went to work at a mall somewhere to do sales, either in the last summer of school or shortly after. Some moved on. Others did not. I, myself, worked retail at Christmas time at an electronics store. Not just that store, but that mall, are gone now. And the chain closed for good some years ago.

What are high school juniors and seniors going to do for jobs now? Fast food the last refuge? Ugh.
Click to expand...

This is no different than the apparel industry. You have immediate job loss from the move overseas then the domino affect as other companies move to stay competitive. Once multiple companies move then you start losing machinery, parts suppliers, raw material suppliers and others contributing to the process. If you wanted to manufacture clothing in the USA it would take many 10 years just to get the ball rolling again. They make them cheaper.
 
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#34
#34
Ernest T. Vol said:
LG, you are blaming market forces and getting snared in economic fallacy again.
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Our economy hasn't been moved by real economic forces since I have been born. That would be called true capitalism. What we have been living through is overt market manipulation by the govt and the Federal Reserve.

Ernest T. Vol said:
What happened to the poor workers that made buggy whips and other tack?
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There were brand new jobs in the new economy that were able to replace those buggy whip jobs. What do we have right now to replace the previous generation of careers in the US?

Ernest T. Vol said:
Should we live like the Amish and do everything by hand so everyone could be employed?
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That may eventually come by no choice on our own. Oh wait... that is doom and gloom talk...

Ernest T. Vol said:
What is good for the investor class is good for everyone.
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If by investor class you mean those of us with our pensions and retirement tied up in the stock market, then I would say that most of us are screwed. We have bought on the way up in a hyperinflated market and eventually, the markets will come back to a true value and wipe out most of our retirement/savings accts.

Ernest T. Vol said:
Savings and investment is essential for the creation of wealth for everyone.
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Savings in this day and era are a joke. The rate you are getting paid on savings accts is far less than inflation. And if Yellen and the FED decide to go negative, you will be paying the banks to keep your money through negative interest rates. The old paradigm is coming to a close.
 
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#35
#35
Ernest T. Vol said:
Free markets are what they are. You almost had it right in your first paragraph but had speak of "qualitative" issues in the second. In other words, you and the left presume to "know better" about what market forces should be allowed.
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We don't have free markets right now. Everything is manipulated.
 
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#36
#36
lawgator1 said:
Oh sure, some. Cheaper labor is a big part of it, too.






Have to agree there. No big loss. The salad bar concept was a good one, and as I recall they were on the leading edge of that. But last two times I have been to one, it was mediocre, at best.
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Losing Ruby Tuesday would have about as much impact as losing Facebook, Amazon, Netflix or Google.

Humanity would survive.
 
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#38
#38
lawgator1 said:
That's my point. I'm just saying we the world has to adjust expectations for how to make a living, and to appreciate how many people are being marginalized by this process, even if our 401ks might be doing a little better because of it.

Trump is tapping into the other side of that equation.

Side note: I'd say at least 2/3 of the people I went to high school with went to work at a mall somewhere to do sales, either in the last summer of school or shortly after. Some moved on. Others did not. I, myself, worked retail at Christmas time at an electronics store. Not just that store, but that mall, are gone now. And the chain closed for good some years ago.

What are high school juniors and seniors going to do for jobs now? Fast food the last refuge? Ugh.
Click to expand...
manage hedge funds.
 
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#44
#44
lawgator1 said:
So yesterday Macy's stock climbs 17 % in one day when it announces that it is going to close 100 stores. I would like to discuss the economic and philosophical questions about "value" that we attach to that.

On the one hand, people working at 100 stores are about to get fired. Haven't seen the numbers, but what's that? At least 10,000 people, right? So it hurts them financially, at least for awhile. And it is another nick adding to the continued hemorrhaging of the middle class, which we just don't need.

So in a sense, when I heard this, I thought it was bad news for the economy.

But then of course, the stock goes up. Now I understand why, in that it means they are getting rid of 100 underperforming stores, but is no one taking account of the fact that this is a problem for the business model of brick and mortar retailers? I mean, the whole sector got a nice bump. For failure? For a long term problem?

Then I heard a guy on CNBC talking about how "over-stored" the US is, relative to the rest of the world. We have 7.3 feet of retail space for every person in the country. Japan and France have 1.7 sq ft. The UK has 1.3 sq ft.

Here's an article about it.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/11/macys-finally-starts-addressing-the-overstored-retail-landscape.html

So what we have, it seems to me, is further confirmation of the shift in the economy, away from traditional models for sales, and towards the internet and technology. Good news for the investment class, but bad news for workers?

Is this what Trump is tapping into? I think it is. I think its the fear of the inevitable shift to new tech and industries that has this huge swath of millions of people just terribly depressed at their prospects 5 and 10 years from now.

I don't know. I guess its glee for some, disaster for others.
Click to expand...


Brick and mortar is dead like Best Buy are dead.. Maills are the next to go
 
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#47
#47
1972 Grad said:
They all suck.
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When travelling for businrss, I've been going to local places featured on Guy Fieri's show, 'Diners DriveIns and Dives'. Been a load of fun and had some excellent vittles.
 
#48
#48
McDad said:
When travelling for businrss, I've been going to local places featured on Guy Fieri's show, 'Diners DriveIns and Dives'. Been a load of fun and had some excellent vittles.
Click to expand...
I try to get local flavor when I'm out to eat. I stopped at a little place in Erwin, Tn the other day called Hawgs and Dawgs. It was good.
 
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