ESPN predicts Dobbs to be 3,000 yard passer in 2016

#51
#51
KBVol said:
Each of their last 3 qbs, each of which has been referred to "game managers", have thrown for more than 3,000 yds (would've been 4, but McElroy missed it by 13 yards in 2010). I'm guessing that's why....despite being considered a running team, they typically throw for 3,000+ yds no matter who their QB is.
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A bit like how much love Bo Scarbrough is getting on many preseason lists. Any back with talent is expected to put up good numbers at AL...the only question being how good.
 
#53
#53
hndog609 said:
A bit like how much love Bo Scarbrough is getting on many preseason lists. Any back with talent is expected to put up good numbers at AL...the only question being how good.
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Well to be fair, Scarbrough is physically a beast.
 
#55
#55
JC61 said:
beat me to it...just goes to show the QB doesn't really have to be stellar, just accurate enough to give the running game a chance to excel.

Like another guy posted...we're talking 50 yds a game....but I think Dobbs or whomever is playing QB needs to be in the 65% completion range as well.

Oh...and the D, which everyone seems to think will be phenomenal, must be as good as expected. All that happens and I do think we're in the SECCG, as well as the NC hunt.
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A few thoughts about what it's gonna take to get Dobbs to 3,000 yards passing this year. One way to look at it is to throw for about an extra 55 yards per game. But there's more to it IMO.

The devil is in the details. For example, if Josh is indeed able to increase his completion % from 59.6 to 65.0, and all other passing stats stay the same, he only gets to 2500 yards.

So, to get 3,000 yards passing, assuming his passing attempts stay at about 26 per game, which I assume they would given the structure and philosophy of our "run first offense", he would need to both increase his completion percentage to 65.0 PLUS increase his average yards per completion from 11.18 yards to 13.39 yards, which is a bit of a taller order.

Now, if his total pass attempts stay at 344 like last year, and his completion % stays at 59.6, then he's gotta increase his yards per completion by 3.5 yards to 14.6 yards OR his yards per attempt from 6.7 to 8.7....a full two yards, which while can certainly be done, is a tall order.

In short, Josh is talented and everything I've listed above is doable. If he and the WRs get on the same page and they and Josh both get better, much better, it can happen. Just look at the incredible jump Brandon Allen took last year in his senior year.

But Josh has his work cut out for him to break his 3 year trend line as a passer which, after nearly 650 career pass attempts, shows him to be a 60% and 6.5 yards per attempt QB.
 
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#57
#57
BearCat204 said:
So nearly double his production from last year as well......not to mention 100 yards more than our leading WR in yardage. I like it, but some awfully high expectations considering what we did this past year.
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I agree. He has some definite work to be done on throwing the ball downfield and wideouts.

Hope he does because that could mean great things for us.
 
#59
#59
The problem will be that Dobbs will be sitting a lot and grinding a lead a lot with all the blowouts we are going to put up.

Team passing was 2,582 last year, so 3,000 for the entire squad is very reasonable.
 
#60
#60
I've also been wondering what call CBJ would make IF we do click in all aspects of the offense AND we are winning handily, WILL Dobbs/Hurd stay in games to pad stats for awards/NFL draftability, OR do the backups get significant work?

As Rifleman brought up, we may very well hit 3,000+ passing but it may or may not be all Dobbs.
 
#61
#61
KBVol said:
A few thoughts about what it's gonna take to get Dobbs to 3,000 yards passing this year. One way to look at it is to throw for about an extra 55 yards per game. But there's more to it IMO.

The devil is in the details. For example, if Josh is indeed able to increase his completion % from 59.6 to 65.0, and all other passing stats stay the same, he only gets to 2500 yards.

So, to get 3,000 yards passing, assuming his passing attempts stay at about 26 per game, which I assume they would given the structure and philosophy of our "run first offense", he would need to both increase his completion percentage to 65.0 PLUS increase his average yards per completion from 11.18 yards to 13.39 yards, which is a bit of a taller order.

Now, if his total pass attempts stay at 344 like last year, and his completion % stays at 59.6, then he's gotta increase his yards per completion by 3.5 yards to 14.6 yards OR his yards per attempt from 6.7 to 8.7....a full two yards, which while can certainly be done, is a tall order.

In short, Josh is talented and everything I've listed above is doable. If he and the WRs get on the same page and they and Josh both get better, much better, it can happen. Just look at the incredible jump Brandon Allen took last year in his senior year.

But Josh has his work cut out for him to break his 3 year trend line as a passer which, after nearly 650 career pass attempts, shows him to be a 60% and 6.5 yards per attempt QB.
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There's a key flaw in all of this: you're assuming that if Dobbs gets up to a 65% completion rate that his YPC will stay the same. But if his accuracy takes a notable step forward, that number probably does see a spike sense it will mean he and WRs are more in sync. It would mean he's hitting some of those wide open throws for chunk yardage he missed last year and that the WRs aren't dropping some of the potential TDs they dropped last season.
 
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#62
#62
Darth_Shiveman said:
There's a key flaw in all of this: you're assuming that if Dobbs gets up to a 65% completion rate that his YPC will stay the same. But if his accuracy takes a notable step forward, that number probably does see a spike sense it will mean he and WRs are more in sync. It would mean he's hitting some of those wide open throws for chunk yardage he missed last year and that the WRs aren't dropping some of the potential TDs they dropped last season.
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i think he's just working off the "knowns".

in reality, with our offense being run first, i can't imagine his attempts being increased all that much.

i think you're closer to hitting the nail on the head, that if we can get those chunk plays up 3, 4, 5, or more a game, both his YPC and completion % go up.

i look for this passing game to be opportunistic. we have mismatches at TE for almost any defense we play, and if we can get PW and another guy to get consistency, the offense could be nightmarish for opposing defenses.
 
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#63
#63
Darth_Shiveman said:
There's a key flaw in all of this: you're assuming that if Dobbs gets up to a 65% completion rate that his YPC will stay the same. But if his accuracy takes a notable step forward, that number probably does see a spike sense it will mean he and WRs are more in sync. It would mean he's hitting some of those wide open throws for chunk yardage he missed last year and that the WRs aren't dropping some of the potential TDs they dropped last season.
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Thought I addressed that in this paragraph.....

"So, to get 3,000 yards passing, assuming his passing attempts stay at about 26 per game, which I assume they would given the structure and philosophy of our "run first offense", he would need to both increase his completion percentage to 65.0 PLUS increase his average yards per completion from 11.18 yards to 13.39 yards, which is a bit of a taller order."


I wasn't theorizing anything, just pointing out what would need to happen for him get to 3,000 yards, be that by increasing his completion percentage or yards per completion or yards per attempt.

I'm certain that this response will irritate you to no end since I didn't admit to being wrong, apologize for being wrong and ask your forgiveness for being wrong.....but I honestly thought I already addressed that pretty directly.
 
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#65
#65
KBVol said:
Thought I addressed that in this paragraph.....

"So, to get 3,000 yards passing, assuming his passing attempts stay at about 26 per game, which I assume they would given the structure and philosophy of our "run first offense", he would need to both increase his completion percentage to 65.0 PLUS increase his average yards per completion from 11.18 yards to 13.39 yards, which is a bit of a taller order."


I wasn't theorizing anything, just pointing out what would need to happen for him get to 3,000 yards, be that by increasing his completion percentage or yards per completion or yards per attempt.

I'm certain that this response will irritate you to no end since I didn't admit to being wrong, apologize for being wrong and ask your forgiveness for being wrong.....but I honestly thought I already addressed that pretty directly.
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I was just pointing out that the things you were framing as mutually exclusive are, in fact, related. No need to get your panties in a wad about it.
 
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#66
#66
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I found the cure
 
#67
#67
The only point I was trying to make is that just pointing to stats doesn't exactly work in this scenario. Dobbs' YPC and YPC were as low as they were because of the intermediate and deep passes that either he or his targets failed to complete.

In short, those stats are a result of his completion percentage being low. Those numbers are intrinsically related. There are two results of this relation:

1. It's inaccurate to use Dobbs' 2015 YPC along with a noticeably higher completion percentage to project stats. Unless our approach in the passing game changes to include dramatically fewer intermediate and deep passes, a higher completion percentage will lead to an increased YPC.

2. Saying Dobbs has to increase completion percentage and YPC or YAC is basically redundant.


That's all I was getting at. Didn't mean to hurt any feelings :hi:
 
#69
#69
Darth_Shiveman said:
I was just pointing out that the things you were framing as mutually exclusive are, in fact, related. No need to get your panties in a wad about it.
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1. Didn't frame anything as mutually exclusive. I mentioned what I thought were the 3 ways he could get from 2300 yards to 3000 yards in 13 games.....increase completion percentage and/or yards per completion and/or yards.

2. No "boxers in a wad" here. I know how it bothers you that I try to stand behind an opinion that I hold and feel confident in. Figured I'd offer the disclaimer for good measure.
 
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#70
#70
Darth_Shiveman said:
The only point I was trying to make is that just pointing to stats doesn't exactly work in this scenario. Dobbs' YPC and YPC were as low as they were because of the intermediate and deep passes that either he or his targets failed to complete.

In short, those stats are a result of his completion percentage being low. Those numbers are intrinsically related. There are two results of this relation:

1. It's inaccurate to use Dobbs' 2015 YPC along with a noticeably higher completion percentage to project stats. Unless our approach in the passing game changes to include dramatically fewer intermediate and deep passes, a higher completion percentage will lead to an increased YPC.

2. Saying Dobbs has to increase completion percentage and YPC or YAC is basically redundant.


That's all I was getting at. Didn't mean to hurt any feelings :hi:
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1. Not true. In 2014 Josh completed 63% of his passes.....he averaged 6.8 yards per attempt. Last year, he hit on 59.6% of his passes....his yards per attempt was almost exactly the same at 6.7. In 2013, his completion % was 59.5, almost exactly the same as last year.....yet his yards per attempt was 5.7 or a full yard less than last year. Empirically speaking, one had nothing to do with the other.

2. No it's not. He's gonna have to significantly do one or the other or both. If nothing else changes this year and all he does is increase completion % to 65.0, he falls about 500 yards short of 3,000.
 
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#71
#71
Darth_Shiveman said:
The only point I was trying to make is that just pointing to stats doesn't exactly work in this scenario. Dobbs' YPC and YPC were as low as they were because of the intermediate and deep passes that either he or his targets failed to complete.

In short, those stats are a result of his completion percentage being low. Those numbers are intrinsically related. There are two results of this relation:

1. It's inaccurate to use Dobbs' 2015 YPC along with a noticeably higher completion percentage to project stats. Unless our approach in the passing game changes to include dramatically fewer intermediate and deep passes, a higher completion percentage will lead to an increased YPC.

2. Saying Dobbs has to increase completion percentage and YPC or YAC is basically redundant.


That's all I was getting at. Didn't mean to hurt any feelings :hi:
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Doubt you did... Hope that doesn't hurt yours. :)
 
#72
#72
KBVol said:
1. Not true. In 2014 Josh completed 63% of his passes.....he averaged 6.8 yards per attempt. Last year, he hit on 59.6% of his passes....his yards per attempt was almost exactly the same at 6.7. In 2013, his completion % was 59.5, almost exactly the same as last year.....yet his yards per attempt was 5.7 or a full yard less than last year. Empirically speaking, one had nothing to do with the other.

2. No it's not. He's gonna have to significantly do one or the other or both. If nothing else changes this year and all he does is increase completion % to 65.0, he falls about 500 yards short of 3,000.
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1. That's a very good point and my reasoning was flawed there. It doesn't necessarily mean his YPC would increase just because his completion percentage increases. Specifically, his deep ball completion percentage would have to increase for my point to stand. That was kind of the point I was working to, but you correctly pointed out that there was a flaw in my logic. Much appreciated.


2. The last point you made is still debatable. You simply can't assume to know that his YPC would stay the same with an increased completion percentage. Sure, there are past trends to look at, but you'd have to be more precise in your prediction. If all is the same from 2015 except Dobbs hits 6% more of his passes and all 6% of that improvement happens to be deep and/or intermediate completions, his total yardage would be greater than 3000 yards. If all his improve by happened to be short passes behind the line, he might finish 600 yards shy of 3000 yards. But you just can't predict what exactly that extra 6% brings to the table because it will change the dynamic his YPA and/or YPC depending on which of those 2015 throws he's hitting.
 
#74
#74
I'm just not seeing it. With how potent our run game will be, don't think Dobbs will have the attempts to get 3,000 passing yards.
 
#75
#75
Darth_Shiveman said:
1. That's a very good point and my reasoning was flawed there. It doesn't necessarily mean his YPC would increase just because his completion percentage increases. Specifically, his deep ball completion percentage would have to increase for my point to stand. That was kind of the point I was working to, but you correctly pointed out that there was a flaw in my logic. Much appreciated.


2. The last point you made is still debatable. You simply can't assume to know that his YPC would stay the same with an increased completion percentage. Sure, there are past trends to look at, but you'd have to be more precise in your prediction. If all is the same from 2015 except Dobbs hits 6% more of his passes and all 6% of that improvement happens to be deep and/or intermediate completions, his total yardage would be greater than 3000 yards. If all his improve by happened to be short passes behind the line, he might finish 600 yards shy of 3000 yards. But you just can't predict what exactly that extra 6% brings to the table because it will change the dynamic his YPA and/or YPC depending on which of those 2015 throws he's hitting.
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As far as point number two, was only working with last year/historical stats for Josh. No one has any way of knowing what his future passes are gonna look like, so I stated things like "assuming all other stats are/stay the same".

Also, all I've done is say there's only 3 ways he can get to 3000 yards this year from last year's 2,291.....and I did so just to take a little deeper look at what he would have to do to get there. He's gotta increase, significantly either one or both of his yards per completed pass or yards per attempt.

Also, I've seen many people say that Josh just needs to get to the arbitrary completion number of 65%....I think I've even said that myself. However, when I looked at it, assuming that all his other numbers stayed the same (pass attempts, yards per attempt, yards per completed pass), since they've stayed pretty static over his 3 years and because we don't know how they may or may not change this year.....if Josh ONLY improves his completion percentage by those 6 points, it's not gonna get him to 3,000, which is number put forth in this thread.....in fact, it'll only get him to 2,503 yards. Furthermore, if his yards per attempt and/or yards per completion stay the same as last year, he'd have to compete nearly 80% of his passes to get to 3,000 yards. Thought it was interesting, so I thought I'd share it.

And again, I'm not putting forth a theory or opinion or anything else here, just trying to crunch a few numbers to show how Josh can get to 3,000 yards.
 
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