Iran deal unlikely: what's next?

#201
#201
hog88 said:
From CNN



This deal buys us 9-10 months and Iran gets all sanctions lifted. I don't think we need experts to decide who got served the shizz sandwich.
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I believe this refers to the break out period. If I understand that correctly the time is from when they decide to do the final amount of enrichment (moving fuel grade to weapons grade). With current capacity it would take them 2-3 months if they did this. Under the deal it would take them longer and the thinking is we'd have a bit longer to do something about it.
 
#203
#203
BearCat204 said:
But you are certainly not ignorant to the fact that any deal that doesn't handcuff Iran will in fact ramp up an arms race in the ME
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Of course.

And that would be just one reason to oppose it, if it does not actually inhibit their ability to get nukes. If it does not seriously and significantly block them from getting there, then it should be voted down. I wholeheartedly agree with that.

I just don't know enough about it right now to know whether it would do that.

What I do know, and what alarms me, is that there are a whole lot of political opponents of the president -- who also don't know enough about it yet to have an opinion -- out there scaring the crap out of people by giving an opinion they admit they are currently unqualified to have.
 
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#204
#204
volinbham said:
I believe this refers to the break out period. If I understand that correctly the time is from when they decide to do the final amount of enrichment (moving fuel grade to weapons grade). With current capacity it would take them 2-3 months if they did this. Under the deal it would take them longer and the thinking is we'd have a bit longer to do something about it.
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shh, they are freaking out, we never let a good freak out go to waste.
 
#205
#205
AirVol said:
We make a deal to a country that screams "Death to America". Sad thing is, Iran and Russia are ecstatic about this deal. Something doesn't sound right to me.
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Maybe Obama is familiar with the sentiment
31ZglHqmdsL.jpg
 
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#206
#206
lawgator1 said:
Of course.

And that would be just one reason to oppose it, if it does not actually inhibit their ability to get nukes. If it does not seriously and significantly block them from getting there, then it should be voted down. I wholeheartedly agree with that.

I just don't know enough about it right now to know whether it would do that.

What I do know, and what alarms me, is that there are a whole lot of political opponents of the president -- who also don't know enough about it yet to have an opinion -- out there scaring the crap out of people by giving an opinion they admit they are currently unqualified to have.
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Obama and Kerry have been on record as much as saying that this will prevent them right now, but that break out period reduces significantly year to year. We have basically given them a little time to freshen up their program and delaying it a bit, but at the same time freeing up a ton of money for them. It is not a deal that will solve anything other than just delaying the inevitable.....thats if Iran actually is honest and transparent about their program.....good luck with that.
 
#207
#207
lawgator1 said:
Of course.

And that would be just one reason to oppose it, if it does not actually inhibit their ability to get nukes. If it does not seriously and significantly block them from getting there, then it should be voted down. I wholeheartedly agree with that.

I just don't know enough about it right now to know whether it would do that.

What I do know, and what alarms me, is that there are a whole lot of political opponents of the president -- who also don't know enough about it yet to have an opinion -- out there scaring the crap out of people by giving an opinion they admit they are currently unqualified to have.
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Typical, you express more alarm about someone playing politics (against a POTUS who is playing politics with the deal) than whether or not the deal is good/bad.
 
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#208
#208
BearCat204 said:
Obama and Kerry have been on record as much as saying that this will prevent them right now, but that break out period reduces significantly year to year. We have basically given them a little time to freshen up their program and delaying it a bit, but at the same time freeing up a ton of money for them. It is not a deal that will solve anything other than just delaying the inevitable.....thats if Iran actually is honest and transparent about their program.....good luck with that.
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Well, it seems to me that the only way you could ever be 100 % sure they are not working on one is to have an inspector in every single building in the country, roaming the streets, and really scouring every square inch looking for hidden facilities. Absent that, which of course is a ridiculous notion, at some point you have to believe you have identified the relevant choke points and that, combined with out intelligence gathering capabilities, we have confidence we can spot and deal with efforts to get around it.

If you assume that they are going to cheat, then the issue in my mind becomes how you catch them at it and what you do about it. To get to that point, you have to have an objectively identifiable point at which you can confidently proclaim that they are cheating.

So in my mind the measure of the wisdom of the deal is a) does it set an objectively identifiable point at which we can say that is the case; and b) how confident are we that we will see it?

Now, as I say, there are some practical realities to that. I'd like to know what those are and how we are dealing with them. I would think any rational person would, before saying the deal is good or bad.
 
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#210
#210
The Most Important Question to Ask About the Nuclear Deal With Iran - The Atlantic

I wish I could believe what Obama seems to suspect, that this deal will set in motion a virtuous cycle in which moderates (relative moderates, of course) gain power in a liberalizing Iran. But I don’t think that this is happening soon. For now, I hope that Obama will study the reality of Iranian activity in the region, and begin to push back against Iran’s ambitions with more alacrity than he has done so far.
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This FP philosophy (which Obama has repeated stated) is equivalent to bringing democracy to Iraq. All the critics of nation building should be critical of this underlying motivation behind this deal.
 
#211
#211
volinbham said:
I believe this refers to the break out period. If I understand that correctly the time is from when they decide to do the final amount of enrichment (moving fuel grade to weapons grade). With current capacity it would take them 2-3 months if they did this. Under the deal it would take them longer and the thinking is we'd have a bit longer to do something about it.
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That is the way I understand it. I heard on one of the news stations this morning that Iraq is close to having enough material to build 8 -10 weapons. This deal reduces that amount to fraction of what it would take to build one weapon.

At this point there is too much spin going on from both sides to know what to believe without reading the deal.
 
#214
#214
volinbham said:
The Most Important Question to Ask About the Nuclear Deal With Iran - The Atlantic



This FP philosophy (which Obama has repeated stated) is equivalent to bringing democracy to Iraq. All the critics of nation building should be critical of this underlying motivation behind this deal.
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There's a pretty huge difference between trying to bomb a country into becoming Democratic versus using economic pressure to influence who does, and does not, rise to power there.
 
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#215
#215
From the Jerusalem Post:

"At a time when the Iranians came to the talks because their economy was being devastated, the world powers had the opportunity not to just kick the can down the road, but rather to kick it over the fence, deep, deep into one of the neighbor’s bushes.

Or, to use a boxing metaphor, two years ago the world powers had Iran on the ropes – its economy badly limping, oil prices falling, its legitimacy at a low point.

But instead of ratcheting up the sanctions and delivering a knockout blow, the powers let Iran slither off the ropes to come back and fight another round.

And fight they did. As Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was reported to have said over the weekend, “Twenty-two months of negotiation means we have managed to charm the world, and it’s an art.”
 
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#216
#216
theFallGuy said:
From the Jerusalem Post:

"At a time when the Iranians came to the talks because their economy was being devastated, the world powers had the opportunity not to just kick the can down the road, but rather to kick it over the fence, deep, deep into one of the neighbor’s bushes.

Or, to use a boxing metaphor, two years ago the world powers had Iran on the ropes – its economy badly limping, oil prices falling, its legitimacy at a low point.

But instead of ratcheting up the sanctions and delivering a knockout blow, the powers let Iran slither off the ropes to come back and fight another round.

And fight they did. As Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was reported to have said over the weekend, “Twenty-two months of negotiation means we have managed to charm the world, and it’s an art.”
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Reminiscent of his imaginary red lines in Syria..
 
#217
#217
theFallGuy said:
From the Jerusalem Post:

"At a time when the Iranians came to the talks because their economy was being devastated, the world powers had the opportunity not to just kick the can down the road, but rather to kick it over the fence, deep, deep into one of the neighbor’s bushes.

Or, to use a boxing metaphor, two years ago the world powers had Iran on the ropes – its economy badly limping, oil prices falling, its legitimacy at a low point.

But instead of ratcheting up the sanctions and delivering a knockout blow, the powers let Iran slither off the ropes to come back and fight another round.

And fight they did. As Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was reported to have said over the weekend, “Twenty-two months of negotiation means we have managed to charm the world, and it’s an art.”
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I'm going to go out on a limb and say that perhaps this is not a neutral observer ....
 
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#223
#223
theFallGuy said:
Doesn't make the statement any less true.

I mean did we even get any Americans held in prison over there released in this stupid ass deal?

Families of Americans Held in Iran: Don
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Then why quote it as though it is authoritative, when its not?

That's what I love about all these conservative blogs. They keep quoting each other, as though by doing so they establish their own, insular credibility. If you trace it back to its original roots, its always this guy:

nerd1.jpg



If you are just going to bash it and call it a bad deal (without knowing what you are talking about), then just do it. Don't quote someone else, equally as partisan and uninformed, and pretend its meaningful.
 
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#224
#224
lawgator1 said:
There's a pretty huge difference between trying to bomb a country into becoming Democratic versus using economic pressure to influence who does, and does not, rise to power there.
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The naivety is the same - base FP with an enemy on the imagined fantasy that they will somehow transform into a trusted partner that eschews the old ways.
 
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