Ukraine II: The Fight Against Russian Aggression

Speaking of snap drills:

Russia checks combat readiness of troops in Armenia

Jade Helm 15, Armenia-style

When Armenia folds within the next year or two, and Russia swoops in like savoir white knights (even though Russia is more culpable than even the Armenian govt. in this fiasco), I wonder how our resident geopolitical experts will turn this into an American coup. I'm sure they'd be working hard on it if it weren't for the fact they're currently having to figure out a way to pin the inevitable Chinese downfall (#pivotleast) on the US.

If they're smart, Professor Ras will take the Chinese crisis, and Dr. Pacer will take the Armenian crisis, each using his accredited degree expertise to determine how exactly America is completely at fault.
 
How come? [I haven't been paying attention]

Meanwhile, of course it would--it's friends with the murderers.

Russia threatens veto on UN vote calling Srebrenica 'a crime of genocide' | World news | The Guardian

US is still the most corrupt country on Earth.

Anyhow, in regards to your question:

https://news.vice.com/article/russia-is-russias-worst-enemy-in-armenia

Cliff's Notes version:

Russia basically controls the Armenian govt. and energy supply, electricity being most key here (not oil). Russia bolsters rampant corruption in the Armenian govt. Armenians are getting fed up with it and are going on long hikes in the streets together. Yerevan, however, with the aid of Moscow, is cracking down on these sojourns.
 
Speaking of snap drills:

Russia checks combat readiness of troops in Armenia

Jade Helm 15, Armenia-style

When Armenia folds within the next year or two, and Russia swoops in like savoir white knights (even though Russia is more culpable than even the Armenian govt. in this fiasco), I wonder how our resident geopolitical experts will turn this into an American coup. I'm sure they'd be working hard on it if it weren't for the fact they're currently having to figure out a way to pin the inevitable Chinese downfall (#pivotleast) on the US.

If they're smart, Professor Ras will take the Chinese crisis, and Dr. Pacer will take the Armenian crisis, each using his accredited degree expertise to determine how exactly America is completely at fault.

The most recent snap check comes amid more than two weeks of protests in Armenia, sparked last month over plans by a Russian-owned company to increase electricity prices by more than 16 percent.
foreign owned utilities, always a good decision and proof of non-corruption
 
How come? [I haven't been paying attention]

Meanwhile, of course it would--it's friends with the murderers.

Russia threatens veto on UN vote calling Srebrenica 'a crime of genocide' | World news | The Guardian

Russia has circulated a rival draft resolution which does not mention either Srebrenica or genocide, but no vote has been scheduled on it.

Last week, Russia’s deputy UN ambassador Petr Iliichev called the British draft “divisive”, saying the Russian draft was “more general, more reconciling”.
not sure what the end measure of this proposal is, but seems like if you mentioning war crimes you might want to mention the location, who is involved and what the war crime was.
 
And speaking of finding utopia (lots of "speaking of"s in here), I've been reading a brilliant piece by Robert Kaplan, The Revenge of Geography, published in 2012. I haven't gotten yet to his more thorough and specific treatment of Russia, but he sprinkles in a little Russia here, a little Russia there along the way.

Long story short, last night I read a bit where he basically made the case that Russia will most likely never be a democratic, "normal" country from our perspective, simply due to its geography. Essentially, secure borders, he argues, allow liberal democracies to flourish much sooner than those states with geographical/cultural insecurities. (I give you the US and Britain, where secure borders allowed early democratic flourishing.) Russia, lacking security due to its highly unfavorable geography, may always call upon a "strongman" and never upon democracy. Russians, in other words, have been so scarred by the land and its history that they're much more willing than, say Americans, to constantly hand over their freedoms for any kind of guarantor of security and stability, most often found in the "strongman" in that unstable, inhospitable part of the world (steppes, Central Asia, northern European plain, etc.).
 
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Speaking of freedoms,

Upper house approves first list of 12 ?undesirable? foreign groups ? RT Russian politics

#roadtoutopia

I hope Russia finally finds what it's looking for this time around. They've only been searching for it the past thousand years. Maybe during the next thousand, they'll finally find it.

mhm, human rights are apparently anti-Russian, or I wonder if it was the Crimean part of that that got it thrown out. Russia seizing more stuff from Crimea and Ukraine without asking.
 
Russia basically controls the Armenian govt. and energy supply, electricity being most key here (not oil). Russia bolsters rampant corruption in the Armenian govt. Armenians are getting fed up with it and are going on long hikes in the streets together. Yerevan, however, with the aid of Moscow, is cracking down on these sojourns.

From the outside it looked like the protests were mostly about electricity and have largely died out.
 
Where are our BRICS summit updates?

Speaking of geography (I'm on a roll), Kaplan argues (and I would imagine he would say the same of Russia and South Africa as well) that Brazil will never amount to much simply due to its geography. Inhospitable climate, poor domestic trade capabilities due to unnavigable rivers/steep cliffs that prevent rail/etc., and poor positioning for global trade.

Oh, and Africa will pretty much always be poor due to, you guessed it, geography. Africa basically has the worst geography in the entire world.
 
Where are our BRICS summit updates?

freedom is overrated, still haven't figured out how to run a joint bank yet, trying to figure out how to beat the Americans at their own game. trying to figure out a cool new name that will save us, while not reinvesting or restructuring how our funding works.
 
Speaking of geography (I'm on a roll), Kaplan argues (and I would imagine he would say the same of Russia and South Africa as well) that Brazil will never amount to much simply due to its geography. Inhospitable climate, poor domestic trade capabilities due to unnavigable rivers/steep cliffs that prevent rail/etc., and poor positioning for global trade.

Oh, and Africa will pretty much always be poor due to, you guessed it, geography. Africa basically has the worst geography in the entire world.

2/3rds of it being desert agrees with this statement.
 
2/3rds of it being desert agrees with this statement.

Certainly. And moreover, the other parts are rain forest (nearly as bad as desert for major economic aspirations) and unnavigable rivers due to the drop-offs and falls in the African interior. As a continent, Africa will never amount to anything really. The only African nations with a shot are those on the coast, like a South Africa. But, even so, they're on the outside looking in when it comes to major sea and global trade routes.

It sounds like American blustering, but I've read time and again, from multiple sources, that America, even in a dream, could not have been more setup for success geographically. As current borders exist, we have the most favorable geography, bar none, in the entire world. I've said on here before that the US could have fallen off the wrong side of the bed one morning, felt a **** creeping up on the way to the office, spilled coffee in the car, and been caught at a dozen red lights and still have ended up a superpower. Economic ups and downs will come inevitably, the nation will experience times of retreat and of being proactive in the world (like now), but it will never really be anything but a major, major player on the world stage, barring some sort of unforeseen climatic or natural (Yellowstone major eruption/explosion) catastrophe.

Peter Zeihan also speaks about this in his recent book, The Accidental Superpower. Basically, the US has it so good geographically, at least historically, that the security found in this favorable setup pushes the US out into the world, even despite itself. Because it doesn't have to be that worried about feeding its populace, securing its borders, and making its trade work, the US has the leisure to go sojourning around the world on national holiday cruises, whether these be humanitarian endeavors or sheer aggressive power plays. And if any of these mess up, we just retreat back thousands of miles across the ocean to our baby binkies (security blankets) and say to ourselves and to the rest of the world, "Oh well. Maybe we'll get 'er next time," all while never really having to face any real repercussions.
 
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Greece should be kicked to the curve. It's a net moocher state and nearly a failed one at that. The US has similar economic problems, but it is a net wealth producing state and certainly not a near failed one.

Let Putin have it. And let those with his and Rasputin's worldviews come save it. One less problem to worry about, in my opinion.

Is Putin Playing Puppetmaster in Greece? - The Daily Beast
 
Certainly. And moreover, the other parts are rain forest (nearly as bad as desert for major economic aspirations) and unnavigable rivers due to the drop-offs and falls in the African interior. As a continent, Africa will never amount to anything really. The only African nations with a shot are those on the coast, like a South Africa. But, even so, they're on the outside looking in when it comes to major sea and global trade routes.

It sounds like American blustering, but I've read time and again, from multiple sources, that America, even in a dream, could not have been more setup for success geographically. As current borders exist, we have the most favorable geography, bar none, in the entire world. I've said on here before that the US could have fallen off the wrong side of the bed one morning, felt a **** creeping up on the way to the office, spilled coffee in the car, and been caught at a dozen red lights and still have ended up a superpower. Economic ups and downs will come inevitably, the nation will experience times of retreat and of being proactive in the world (like now), but it will never really be anything but a major, major player on the world stage, barring some sort of unforeseen climatic or natural (Yellowstone major eruption/explosion) catastrophe.

Peter Zeihan also speaks about this in his recent book, The Accidental Superpower. Basically, the US has it so good geographically, at least historically, that the security found in this favorable setup pushes the US out into the world, even despite itself. Because it doesn't have to be that worried about feeding its populace, securing its borders, and making its trade work, the US has the leisure to go sojourning around the world on national holiday cruises, whether these be humanitarian endeavors or sheer aggressive power plays. And if any of these mess up, we just retreat back thousands of miles across the ocean to our baby binkies (security blankets) and say to ourselves and to the rest of the world, "Oh well. Maybe we'll get 'er next time," all while never really having to face any real repercussions.

I think part of our success, and maybe like you mentioned it would have only slowed us down not stopped us, is our history. How much does America being colonized by only a few nations play into effect? if more nations had gotten involved that is more conflict to start. more chances that a nation hangs onto their territory longer. As it was culturally we have been limited by the other major colonization. Canada and the french have never wanted to be part of the US, Spain/Mexico we defeated and or conquered a number of times yet we never really pushed south. The reason we got Alaska from Russia is because they didn't colonize the area. What if the Chinese had established a colony in California. most of our divergent ancestors happened under British or our own control and we have never really been pushed by another American power. Look at Europe and there have been so many powers that have defined each nation that they are doomed to the division. The EU looks like it might fall apart or scale back. We had to fight two wars to maintain independence, and even still we became closely tied with our mother nation, another major "mother nation" player would have complicated things immensely. so the power of the USA is just as dependent on our history and the details behind our founding as it is the geography and natural gifts.


another argument I will make is how geography would have extremely hindered America had it been colonized from another direction. From the north is too cold, short summers, if Britain has started in Canada and moved south it would have taken a much longer time, allowing for more players. The Spanish tried from the south but were limited by the harshness of their settled territory. Florida and Louisanna were undeveloped pits for most of history. Arizona and Southern Cal had populations but extremes of water would have limited development FROM those places. Same if we were settled from the west, no water in southern cal, poor summers in the north in Oregon and Washington, possible but much more difficult than settling in Virginia, and even then there were set backs. Texas could have worked, maybe, because it has all of the extremes and so there are stretches in between those extremes were development would have been possible, but you would have quickly run into the same issues mentioned elsewhere. So I guess I am saying the British/we got lucky they landed in Virginia and not Florida; the geography they faced was nicer and allowed quicker development than the other nations found.
 
I think part of our success, and maybe like you mentioned it would have only slowed us down not stopped us, is our history. How much does America being colonized by only a few nations play into effect? if more nations had gotten involved that is more conflict to start. more chances that a nation hangs onto their territory longer. As it was culturally we have been limited by the other major colonization. Canada and the french have never wanted to be part of the US, Spain/Mexico we defeated and or conquered a number of times yet we never really pushed south. The reason we got Alaska from Russia is because they didn't colonize the area. What if the Chinese had established a colony in California. most of our divergent ancestors happened under British or our own control and we have never really been pushed by another American power. Look at Europe and there have been so many powers that have defined each nation that they are doomed to the division. The EU looks like it might fall apart or scale back. We had to fight two wars to maintain independence, and even still we became closely tied with our mother nation, another major "mother nation" player would have complicated things immensely. so the power of the USA is just as dependent on our history and the details behind our founding as it is the geography and natural gifts.

I see what you're saying, but, when you think about it, this history you speak of is dependent upon geography. Geography dictated that the only two powers capable of really having any influence (maybe outside of Japan, which was secure as an island state from the Asian mainland) were Britain (secure island state from European mainland, and, therefore, seaward-looking) and France (not as secure, but still a sea power). Geography dictates that it's no coincidence Britain played the largest role on the North American continent. France was too concerned with continental affairs, as a part of the European continent, while, secure, Britain was nonetheless too occupied by European continental affairs as well, these affairs being far more crucial to its security and welfare than those occurring in North America. Even with Alaska and some holdings on the California coast (which I've visited now, as a Californian - yes, tis true), Russia's power and interest base was too far away and too disinterested. Similarly, China was too entangled by Eurasian affairs and security interests to worry about the North American continent.


another argument I will make is how geography would have extremely hindered America had it been colonized from another direction. From the north is too cold, short summers, if Britain has started in Canada and moved south it would have taken a much longer time, allowing for more players. The Spanish tried from the south but were limited by the harshness of their settled territory. Florida and Louisanna were undeveloped pits for most of history. Arizona and Southern Cal had populations but extremes of water would have limited development FROM those places. Same if we were settled from the west, no water in southern cal, poor summers in the north in Oregon and Washington, possible but much more difficult than settling in Virginia, and even then there were set backs. Texas could have worked, maybe, because it has all of the extremes and so there are stretches in between those extremes were development would have been possible, but you would have quickly run into the same issues mentioned elsewhere. So I guess I am saying the British/we got lucky they landed in Virginia and not Florida; the geography they faced was nicer and allowed quicker development than the other nations found.

I've thought about this as well, ever since I learned how crucial geography is in determining the destinies of nations and peoples. Of course it is not completely determinative, nor is geography a matter of conscious decision. It just is. Without a doubt, the history of the North American continent would be very different had secure seafaring cultures sprout up in East Asia, instead of in Western Europe. While it's probably not an accident if you could go back and have the omniscience to look at every detail of human history and land relationships, suffice it to say that it was merely a coincidence and a happy accident that Europe, particularly Britain sat nearly the same latitude (and technology and cultures tend to move on a west-east orientation due to climatic similarities, rather than north-south) as present-day America and Canada. That granted, it's no happy accident that Virginia was chosen as THE official spot by the British. Once again, geography (and climate), and it just happened to play in Britain's (and later, most notably, in our) favor, as opposed to the other colonial upstarts. Chances are, if you could wind back the colonial clock, excise British involvement in North America, and see what happens, the continent probably would never have taken off. No other spot was more suitable for a future "superpower spawn" than the US mid-Atlantic.

Marx was right about one thing at least: history is the condition of material being. However, he was wrong about the material. History is not the condition of economic relationships; rather, history and economic relationships as an extension, are the conditions of geography. And I might more aptly use geography/climate as the correct term. Geography, climate, and demographics, these are the most important factors that influence a nation's history and trajectory, although even demographics are subservient to the other two factors.


.
 
Oh, I forgot about Spain. Spain too had an Atlantic orientation, but continental concerns (similar to those of France) and a southern orientation in the New World (most likely in an attempt to placate or at least negotiate with its northern European neighbors in France and Britain) basically led it straight to the worst kind of elements, quite literally, in the New World. No Spanish colony, no Portuguese colony (for that matter), with their southern orientations as a result of internal European security affairs, was ever going to be a power player on the world stage.

As far as the New World is concerned, it's pretty much America or bust. If Mexico can get its internal problems under control, it has the potential to make a little noise internationally, but this is only because it borders the US. Otherwise, it would be a failed state. It has absolutely nothing going for it, other than the facts it is a two ocean nation and a US border state.
 
Speaking of geography (I'm on a roll), Kaplan argues (and I would imagine he would say the same of Russia and South Africa as well) that Brazil will never amount to much simply due to its geography. Inhospitable climate, poor domestic trade capabilities due to unnavigable rivers/steep cliffs that prevent rail/etc., and poor positioning for global trade.

I hadn't given this much thought, but it's a bit surprising, given the Amazon River and it's 2015 and all.

But what else can one make of this?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transport_in_Brazil

Brazil has 1,751,868 kilometers of roads, 96,353 km of them paved and 1,655,515 km unpaved. That means that only 5.5% of the roads are paved and that 94.5% are unpaved.
 

there were plenty of other naval colonizing powers out there. Netherlands had New York/Amsterdam. Portugal and Spain colonized a whole continent to the south, and even into America. The Germans had colonies in Africa and likely would have made a push in at some point.

Timing to me is more important than geography ever would be. Shift the dates 100/50/20 yrs plus or minus and you have a completely different America. And France and Britain being secure enough to look east is again a matter of timing and human involvement (wars). We were successful in our rebellion because of the on going European wars and our French allies being able to help. The war of 1812 has a similar theme to it as well. I would also argue that it wasn't so much their security in Europe that lead them to expand as much as it was their insecurity. France, Britain nor Spain could allow the others to grow in the new world without matching it, or else they risked of falling way behind. and look how it turned out. their fall out of the new world is largely tied to other events, and lead to insecurity at home. Britain was in the best position geographically but they were also the most dependent on their colonies for resources. They had to expand to stay afloat not as a luxury. dual edged sword I guess.

In my mind the break of to what America owes its strength to looks something like this.

45% timing/history
30% geography/ natural resources
15% culture-of the citizens, of our founding as nation, and the founding of our settlement
10% misc.

the resources and land itself are nothing without development and use provided by other factors. Look at Russia.
 
another argument I will make is how geography would have extremely hindered America had it been colonized from another direction. From the north is too cold, short summers, if Britain has started in Canada and moved south it would have taken a much longer time, allowing for more players. The Spanish tried from the south but were limited by the harshness of their settled territory. Florida and Louisanna were undeveloped pits for most of history. Arizona and Southern Cal had populations but extremes of water would have limited development FROM those places. Same if we were settled from the west, no water in southern cal, poor summers in the north in Oregon and Washington, possible but much more difficult than settling in Virginia, and even then there were set backs. Texas could have worked, maybe, because it has all of the extremes and so there are stretches in between those extremes were development would have been possible, but you would have quickly run into the same issues mentioned elsewhere. So I guess I am saying the British/we got lucky they landed in Virginia and not Florida; the geography they faced was nicer and allowed quicker development than the other nations found.

How much of that is the land/climate, and how much is simply a matter of access to water (i.e., shipping)?
 
How much of that is the land/climate, and how much is simply a matter of access to water (i.e., shipping)?

Florida and Texas access to waterways wouldn't be an issue.

Middle Canada is a waterway issue, as well as terrible climate.

Oregon and Washington have some rivers.
 
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