Official Global Warming thread (merged)

Can you explain the bolded?

I agree with the needed fixes, but I don’t think we’ll get that violent push into the future without some monetary incentive i.e. carbon pricing

some companies will actually be effected by either of the two systems and result in them creating less emissions. other companies will just spend their way out of it and still create the same amount of emissions. Either system is like a speeding ticket. it doesn't stop the driver from speeding, it just gives them an incentive not to/not to get caught.

instead of leading with the stick "Do this or else" we need to lead with the carrot "Good job here's a refund". i believe the difference is why some people see it as a money grabbing operation instead of something fostering real change.
 
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Here's what is really happening...

Natural gas plants are replacing nuclear power in Southern California. | UTSanDiego.com

Accusations that the state of California failed to consider clean energy options in replacing power once supplied by the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station are falling on deaf ears, as utility regulators and the state’s top court rejects appeals from local and national environmental groups.

The complaints are centered around power supplies to the San Diego area, which once relied on San Onofre for 20 percent of its electricity, and two gas-fired power plants that have been embraced as early substitutes.

San Onofre was retired in 2013 because of a botched replacement generator project. Environmentalists warn that new investments in natural gas plants will undermine California’s aggressive goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming.

And the bolded needs context. Ultimately the steam generator project was the problem. A problem that might have been overcome without the immense environmentalist presence in California.
 
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I'm not a denier. But I'm skeptical when I see something that says:



When discussing models that have had a large error in predicting future surface temperatures.

They're actually pretty good at predicting future surface temperatures. Note that there is a difference between climate and weather.

Climate models accurately predicted global warming when reflecting natural ocean cycles | Dana Nuccitelli | Environment | The Guardian

I'm looking forward to a book coming out on this topic later this year, but I can't remember the name of it.
 
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https://theclimatefix.wordpress.com/2015/02/25/i-am-under-investigation/

As some of you will already know, I am one of 7 US academics being investigated by US Representative Raúl Grijalva (D-AZ) who is the ranking member of the House of Representatives Committee on Environment and Natural Resources. Rep. Grijalva has sent a letter to the president of my university requesting a range of information, including my correspondence, the letter is here in PDF.

Before continuing, let me make one point abundantly clear: I have no funding, declared or undeclared, with any fossil fuel company or interest. I never have. Representative Grijalva knows this too, because when I have testified before the US Congress, I have disclosed my funding and possible conflicts of interest. So I know with complete certainty that this investigation is a politically-motivated “witch hunt” designed to intimidate me (and others) and to smear my name.

When “witch hunts” are deemed legitimate in the context of popular causes, we will have fully turned science into just another arena for the exercise of power politics. The result is a big loss for both science and politics.
 
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we aren't allowed to have deniers, these are the same people who thought the earth was flat and smoking was good for you!
 
My boy? Don’t know, don’t really care.

So do you think ozone depletion was an environmental scare too? Acid rain? One of these days you’ll clarify you’re positions…

No, some environmental issues are legit. But when they run out of legit issues they have nothing else to do so they focus on less legit issues and CO2 is one of them.

Any who, I didn’t ask if you’d support new taxes, I just asked if you would take cap-and-trade seriously (as opposed to the nonsensical smearing in the past). What if Fred Singer backed cap-and-trade?

I'd support anything the free market did. Government involvement? no.


Bart, have you seen this Muller lecture?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BQpciw8suk
 
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:birgits_giggle:
No, some environmental issues are legit. But when they run out of legit issues they have nothing else to do so they focus on less legit issues and CO2 is one of them.

I'd support anything the free market did. Government involvement? no.

Bart, have you seen this Muller lecture?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BQpciw8suk
Way to dodge again. You know that clip was before his conversion to the dark side, right?


Confusing Mike’s trick with hide the decline

Clearing up misconceptions regarding 'hide the decline'
 
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They're actually pretty good at predicting future surface temperatures. Note that there is a difference between climate and weather.

Climate models accurately predicted global warming when reflecting natural ocean cycles | Dana Nuccitelli | Environment | The Guardian

I'm looking forward to a book coming out on this topic later this year, but I can't remember the name of it.
Thinking of this?

Climatology versus Pseudoscience book tests whose predictions have been right


Saw another related story today:

Climate Oscillations and the Global Warming Faux Pause
 
some companies will actually be effected by either of the two systems and result in them creating less emissions. other companies will just spend their way out of it and still create the same amount of emissions. Either system is like a speeding ticket. it doesn't stop the driver from speeding, it just gives them an incentive not to/not to get caught.
To reframe the analogy: carbon pricing allows drivers to decide for themselves whether it is more cost efficient to speed and pay a toll.

I think you’re missing some aspect(s). Some companies will reduce emissions more than others, that is true. Under a cap-and-trade system companies that can reduce their emissions at lower costs will do so and sell their excess pollution rights. Companies who cannot reduce emissions as efficiently may then want to buy those excess pollution rights. Each party is acting in its own interest and the price of those pollution rights is simply determined by the market (and, well, the cap).

The reason cap-and-trade will effectively reduce emissions is because of the cap. One cannot infinitely buy pollution rights; there are only a finite amount of them. That is a key difference between cap-and-trade and a carbon tax. With a carbon tax the gov (not the market) puts a price on pollution rights and there are technically an infinite amount of them. In both cases companies are incentivized to reduce emissions to the point which is most profitable for them. The goal is to achieve the necessary emissions cuts at the lowest overall cost to the economy.
instead of leading with the stick "Do this or else" we need to lead with the carrot "Good job here's a refund". i believe the difference is why some people see it as a money grabbing operation instead of something fostering real change.
Well past efforts to reduce emissions have relied on carrots in the form of subsidies and tax breaks. With a revenue neutral carbon tax the carrot would be equal cuts in capital gains taxes, payroll taxes, income taxes, or something else. We could scrap those old subsidies and tax cuts entirely, both for fossil fuels and alternative energies. There are many options. These options have been on the table before. We just need a certain group of politicians to come to the table to have these discussions.

Instead...
Jim Inhofe’s snowball has disproven climate change once and for all
 
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To reframe the analogy: carbon pricing allows drivers to decide for themselves whether it is more cost efficient to speed and pay a toll.

I think you’re missing some aspect(s). Some companies will reduce emissions more than others, that is true. Under a cap-and-trade system companies that can reduce their emissions at lower costs will do so and sell their excess pollution rights. Companies who cannot reduce emissions as efficiently may then want to buy those excess pollution rights. Each party is acting in its own interest and the price of those pollution rights is simply determined by the market (and, well, the cap).

The reason cap-and-trade will effectively reduce emissions is because of the cap. One cannot infinitely buy pollution rights; there are only a finite amount of them. That is a key difference between cap-and-trade and a carbon tax. With a carbon tax the gov (not the market) puts a price on pollution rights and there are technically an infinite amount of them. In both cases companies are incentivized to reduce emissions to the point which is most profitable for them. The goal is to achieve the necessary emissions cuts at the lowest overall cost to the economy.

Well past efforts to reduce emissions have relied on carrots in the form of subsidies and tax breaks. With a revenue neutral carbon tax the carrot would be equal cuts in capital gains taxes, payroll taxes, income taxes, or something else. We could scrap those old subsidies and tax cuts entirely, both for fossil fuels and alternative energies. There are many options. These options have been on the table before. We just need a certain group of politicians to come to the table to have these discussions.

Instead...
Jim Inhofe’s snowball has disproven climate change once and for all

as far as the cap goes where the cap is matters a whole lot. and does it ever change? every five years it drops 5%? and how does it initially get set up? how does it take into account new businesses and growth? i have issues with each of those questions, which issues depends on what the answer is.

i am almost completely against the tax option just because it is another levied tax by people who have no idea what they are talking about.
 
:birgits_giggle:

Way to dodge again. You know that clip was before his conversion to the dark side, right?


Confusing Mike’s trick with hide the decline

Clearing up misconceptions regarding 'hide the decline'

No, he still believes Mann and his comrades fudged data. Now that Muller's gone over to the dark side you only have about 8 others to go. Plus, Muller's solution is to focus on China. He says we are doing our part. He says you need to get China off coal. If you alarmists were really concerned you'd go to China and focus there.
 
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... You know some of them are the same people who fought for Big Tobacco in the 90's, right? You should read "Merchants of Doubt."

I keep seeing this argument but it is as fallacious as saying AGW is all BS since some of those promoting it have a political agenda. Some on both sides have vested interests and agendas and some do not.
 
I keep seeing this argument but it is as fallacious as saying AGW is all BS since some of those promoting it have a political agenda. Some on both sides have vested interests and agendas and some do not.

Show me some people saying this phenomenon isn't happening with no agenda that are scientists in a relevant field.

I'm open to being educated.
 
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Show me some people saying this phenomenon isn't happening with no agenda that are scientists in a relevant field.

I'm open to being educated.

You and Bart keep putting words in my mouth. The conflation of "it's not happening" with the rate of impact or all the implications (eg. storms are more severe as a result) is what I'm referring to.

There are examples of scientists who question the severity of the issue who are attacked as deniers, being paid, etc.

The article Skins posted is just one example of how scientists who are reaching conclusions other than the policy orthodoxy are subject to derision or worse in this case, Congressional investigation.

Discounting some questioning of the IPCC conclusions as illegitimate since "some" who question it are actually illegitimate (e.g. the same guys as the tobacco deniers) is the fallacy.

This is not all settled science.
 
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You and Bart keep putting words in my mouth. The conflation of "it's not happening" with the rate of impact or all the implications (eg. storms are more severe as a result) is what I'm referring to.

There are examples of scientists who question the severity of the issue who are attacked as deniers, being paid, etc.

The article Skins posted is just one example of how scientists who are reaching conclusions other than the policy orthodoxy are subject to derision or worse in this case, Congressional investigation.

Discounting some questioning of the IPCC conclusions as illegitimate since "some" who question it are actually illegitimate (e.g. the same guys as the tobacco deniers) is the fallacy.

This is not all settled science.

It is not all settled science in the sense of the full implications. Can you provide names of people who you feel are being punished or ostracized but aren't denying the phenomenon? I'm not trying to put words in your mouth, I am trying to get you give me some specifics. Pielke Jr is being investigated, yet he doesn't deny warming, was in favor of Obama's climate policies, and has a book in which he advocates a carbon tax. So how is he a significant naysayer? He can't be being targeted for being a skeptic, because he isn't one.
 
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It is not all settled science in the sense of the full implications. Can you provide names of people who you feel are being punished or ostracized but aren't denying the phenomenon? I'm not trying to put words in your mouth, I am trying to get you give me some specifics. Pielke Jr is being investigated, yet he doesn't deny warming, was in favor of Obama's climate policies, and has a book in which he advocates a carbon tax. So how is he a significant naysayer? He can't be being targeted for being a skeptic, because he isn't one.

He's being targeted none the less because he is naysaying that there is no significant evidence that storms are worse due to GW.

Curry has been attacked quite a bit because she backed off her earlier position and questions the certainty of some of the predictions of calamity and the certainty of the amount of impact of man.

Just 2
 
So how is he a significant naysayer? He can't be being targeted for being a skeptic, because he isn't one.

This is part of my point - targeting doesn't limit itself to questioning the basic relationship of AGW. It has been expanded to include targeting for questioning the IPCC conclusions or even less.
 
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