ok, on lunch break so got some time to hatch out some straight up tin foil stuff here.
this operates under a couple assumptions based on what i have seen:
1. putin wants to carve up Ukraine
2. putin is backing the rebels and is in nominal control
3. Putin wanted to be part of the talks and create a bad peace plan sure to fail (as we are already seeing)
ok, the current cease fire fighting spreads, and fully restarts. including the massacre of the Ukrainians in the pocket. Putin comes out and condemns this violence in general. he calls out the rebels and their is a public fight/spat between the russians and the rebels. the rebels keep fighting and eventually 'accidentally' somehow hit russia territory killing some civilians there. it is cast in the light of unfortunate expansion of warfare. now Putin has the validation needed to roll in the regulars and take over quite quickly as the vast majority of rebel forces 'disappear'. Putin then annexes the two autonomous regions in order to protect russia, keeping a large military force there to 'maintain' protection all the while never having actually invaded Ukraine as they were autonomous regions, and he was 'fighting' rebels not Ukrainian government forces
full blown tin foil. discuss.