Just what, exactly, do you think Johnny Manziel is going to do in the NFL?
Its absolutely stunning to me when a slew of NFL scouts normally the coldest, harshest, most hypercritical analysts on the planet ignore everything they know in their hearts to be true and fall for the shiny pieces of tin foil.
NFL drafting is an inexact science, but you can limit the variables. Does drafting a 6-5, 240-pound athletic quarterback guarantee success? Of course not, but you stand a better chance of hitting the pick if youre not trying to take any massive risks or buck any trends. And thats the thing about the NFL draft you dont have to take unnecessary chances. Better to hit a slew of standup doubles than swing for the fences and strike out.
Any time you hear the words intangible, instinct, leadership and it as in, he has it to make excuses for a slew of negatives, red flags need to go up.
Several years ago I was hanging around the old Pro Football Weekly offices shooting the spit with draft guru Nolan Nawrocki, and I brought up that Tim Tebow, coming off his Heisman-winning sophomore season, had the potential to eventually be the No. 1 overall pick, arguing that if Alex Smith could be the first guy off the board, than a bigger, tougher spread option quarterback might be even better. With a hint of bemused pity, Nawrocki simply asked, as what?
And he was absolutely right. For whatever reason, I threw out all the truths and all the facts and thought Tebow could be great just because of his Tebowness. Tebow, Vince Young, Robert Griffin III any time youre drafting a quarterback high and youre looking to break the mold, theres a big problem.
Look, I think Manziel can be a good NFL starter, and I have no problems taking him in the second round. But the stuff he did in college wont work in the pros, and youre not going to win a Super Bowl because of him. Hes an athlete, but you know whos athletic in the NFL? Everyone.
A lot of the Manzielian things he did in college lead to concussions, interceptions or both at the next level. Hes not a pocket passer, and if he tries to freelance on the outside hell get killed hes just not built to last.
My biggest issue is with his mechanics. Talk about arm strength, his pro day throwing against air, and his deep throwing ability all you want, but hes never going to be Tom Brady when it comes to hanging tough in the face of a rush and getting the ball off on NFL timing patterns. Not having the right mechanics and being a streetball player is fine for a while, but once a passer gets tired, if his feet and motion arent perfect every time, and if he relies on his arm, fourth quarter throws tend to sail a wee bit and the drive just isnt there.
He also falls into college quarterback timing issues. College quarterbacks can put up big numbers by throwing to the open man. In the NFL, you have to complete 22-of-27 passes by throwing to covered receivers, and not just on jump balls to leaping 6-5 targets.
Manziel is a better pure passer than Tebow, but its sort of the same problem. How did Tebow have the success he did at Denver? He sucked for 58 minutes, the defense kept the team in the game, and then when it came down to crunch time, Tebow got to go against prevent defenses that allowed receivers to run open Tebow could hit those throws. Manziel is Manziel because he makes things happen on the move. Ask him to be a pocket passer and hit fourth read on a progression, and youre dead.
Hes not Russell Wilson, hes not Drew Brees, and he sure as shoot isnt Michael Vick. Manziel is a different type of quarterback, and different types of quarterbacks dont win big things in the NFL. (And no, Wilson isnt a different type because hes short hes a 6-4, ultra-accurate, ultra-efficient passer in a 5-11 body.)
If youre talking about drafting Manziel somewhere in the top ten, youre asking him to be a franchise player wholl carry a team to a Super Bowl, and thats not him. He can be a part of a puzzle, but hed have to be in a perfect situation like Wilson was in Seattle to take a team to a title, and even then Im not sold that he can last a full season.
And remember, since Dallas selected Troy Aikman in 1989, how many quarterbacks drafted in the top ten not named Manning have won Super Bowls for the teams that drafted them? Zip.
So why take the chance early? Do you really think hes going to be a superstar who can carry an NFL team to a championship? If so, go for it, but thats your guy for the next several years. You miss - and as history proves, if you take him in the top ten, youre going to and youre sunk. Better to build up everything else and get your quarterback later.
