High school rankings of NFL draftees 2024

#4
#4
LWSVOL said:
its not. Its just some interesting data for some people but meaningless data for others.
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A very statesmanlike response. Much appreciated. That's two posts you've made in this thread that contribute to the Volnation community.
 
#5
#5
BigOrangeTrain said:
How is a ranking out of HS in any way relevant to where a guy is picked in the draft?
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WAY more relevant to the celebration or capitulation rational fans should express on signing days. Too many folks discount players value if they are below the magic 4 star line, but each year there are more than enough 4 stars to cover the draft and fundamentally there are 2 years worth available for each draft.

No problem celebrating the probabilities of the no-brainer 5 and high 4 stars, but the 4 star misses and the number of sub 4 star guys drafted in their place just shows how tough it is to forecast based on the differentials in HS programs and where the players are relative to puberty.

College staffs get to concentrate on and project future relative ability on smaller subsets than every player in HS that the services deal with.
 
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#6
#6
LWSVOL said:
and those who left college early for the draft



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I was going to post "this thread again....why?"

But then I saw the OP, who everyone on this board should respect, and thought about how there have been quite a bit of new players enter the league since this has last been discussed (ad-nauseum) and decided to give way too long a response because I'm off work and bored with the rain. I broke it up into 2 posts for those who could care less about the second portion....which most on here already know or have similar opinions.

So, I think we have thoroughly gone over the fact that 5 stars will have busts but there are so few each year that they are statistically more likely to hit and contribute in college then make it to the NFL. They tend to be the generational talents and early bloomers physically. 4 stars and high 3 stars are going to be the majority of players in the league because there are a lot more of them and they typically are not that far below a 5 star in talent but haven't reached as much of their potential yet. Lower percentage of hit rate on them but much greater overall numbers than 5 stars so they make up greater overall numbers.

Occasionally there will be your Darrelle Revis type guys who mature later physically and have already perfected their craft and developed a great work ethic and good habits by then. Also, less likely to be locker room problems or have legal troubles. When/if their physical ability improves to the base line needed for their position then they often become stars or high level contributors (but those guys don't win programs college championships).
 
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#7
#7
gainesvol82 said:
I was going to post "this thread again....why?"

But then I saw the OP, who everyone on this board should respect, and thought about how there have been quite a bit of new players enter the league since this has last been discussed (ad-nauseum) and decided to give way too long a response because I'm off work and bored with the rain. I broke it up into 2 posts for those who could care less about the second portion....which most on here already know or have similar opinions.

So, I think we have thoroughly gone over the fact that 5 stars will have busts but there are so few each year that they are statistically more likely to hit and contribute in college then make it to the NFL. They tend to be the generational talents and early bloomers physically. 4 stars and high 3 stars are going to be the majority of players in the league because there are a lot more of them and they typically are not that far below a 5 star in talent but haven't reached as much of their potential yet. Lower percentage of hit rate on them but much greater overall numbers than 5 stars so they make up greater overall numbers.

Occasionally there will be your Darrelle Revis type guys who mature later physically and have already perfected their craft and developed a great work ethic and good habits by then. Also, less likely to be locker room problems or have legal troubles. When/if their physical ability improves to the base line needed for their position then they often become stars or high level contributors (but those guys don't win programs college championships).
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Best analogy to me is people (especially women) who were not very attractive during their formative years and didn't get pursued heavily. If they become attractive as adults they tend to make better partners than those who grew up attractive from a young age as they developed a good personality, sense of humor, intelligence and tend to be more humble, honest and faithful companions. There are exceptions who are beautiful inside and out all along but that's rarer today. Also, there are exceptions where the "ugly duckling" let's the newfound attention go to their head and don't make for good partners, but that is not as common in my experience and observing friends and other people I have known.

I tell my 14 year old son (and will my daughter) to date nice people with non-physical characteristics he likes and he is also attracted enough to. Stay away from the arrogant ones no matter how hot and to always be nice and maybe mildly flirt with or compliment people he likes as people but may not be attracted to now. That attention can really help someone's self esteem, it's just a nice thing to do, builds a good reputation and he never knows when his taste may change or someone might blossom into a person he is physically interested in. They are likely to remember his kindness/friendship when other good looking guys were a-holes to them and, even if they don't want to date him, they are likely to recommend him to an attractive friend. This TL;DR may sound shallow but I teach that looks aren't most important there has to be some physical attraction in a relationship.
 
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#8
#8
For anyone whoever cracked a stats book for more than 10 seconds, and assuming the draft order is a true listing of best players available, then here is how a college recruiting staff should approach star rankings (if they really care that much) ...

Priority #1 - Get every 5* possible
Priority #2 - Get every 4* possible
Priority #3 - Get every 3* possible

... if all you knew @ talent evals were star ratings, then this is how you would do it for best ODDS at landing the best players. I know this is highly technical. 🙂
 
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#10
#10
livefaith said:
For anyone whoever cracked a stats book for more than 10 seconds, and assuming the draft order is a true listing of best players available, then here is how a college recruiting staff should approach star rankings (if they really care that much) ...

Priority #1 - Get every 5* possible
Priority #2 - Get every 4* possible
Priority #3 - Get every 3* possible

... if all you knew @ talent evals were star ratings, then this is how you would do it for best ODDS at landing the best players. I know this is highly technical. 🙂
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Seems to have worked out for Bama and UGA just fine. They always sign #1 classes.
 
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#12
#12
gainesvol82 said:
Best analogy to me is people (especially women) who were not very attractive during their formative years and didn't get pursued heavily. If they become attractive as adults they tend to make better partners than those who grew up attractive from a young age as they developed a good personality, sense of humor, intelligence and tend to be more humble, honest and faithful companions. There are exceptions who are beautiful inside and out all along but that's rarer today. Also, there are exceptions where the "ugly duckling" let's the newfound attention go to their head and don't make for good partners, but that is not as common in my experience and observing friends and other people I have known.

I tell my 14 year old son (and will my daughter) to date nice people with non-physical characteristics he likes and he is also attracted enough to. Stay away from the arrogant ones no matter how hot and to always be nice and maybe mildly flirt with or compliment people he likes as people but may not be attracted to now. That attention can really help someone's self esteem, it's just a nice thing to do, builds a good reputation and he never knows when his taste may change or someone might blossom into a person he is physically interested in. They are likely to remember his kindness/friendship when other good looking guys were a-holes to them and, even if they don't want to date him, they are likely to recommend him to an attractive friend. This TL;DR may sound shallow but I teach that looks aren't most important there has to be some physical attraction in a relationship.
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Love the analogy. I tell my daughter to only date guys like Freak and LWSVol
 
#14
#14
BigOrangeTrain said:
Trying to compare a kid coming out of HS to the same guy 3-4 years after college level coaching is dumb.
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You do realize WHY they have a star ranking system and why they pick only a certain amount of 5 star and 4 star.

They are projections on how they will do in college and eventually place them in a certain round of the NFL draft. So it’s very relevant.
 
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