Breaking News: U.S. & Canada Reach Trade Agreement

#176
#176
n_huffhines said:
NAFTA 2.0: The Best Trade Agreement Ever Negotiated (Except for All of the Others)
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blah blah blah blah
Relative to the existing NAFTA, there are also pros and cons to the USMCA. Though there is greater liberalization in goods trade, it is marginally to imperceptibly so. Taking into consideration the negative changes, especially to the rules of origin, it’s not obvious that USMCA is liberalizes much from NAFTA. But it’s possible—even probable—that some of the less directly liberalizing, technical and procedural provisions, such as those governing “Digital Trade,” “Customs and Trade Facilitation,” “State-Owned Enterprises,” and others, utilized in ways not completely apparent now, could lead to lower trade costs.
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the biggest negative was the auto market thing, which Trump had determined was a problem. whether or not it actually was is immaterial to the fact that it was something Trump keyed on. Under NAFTA the loop holes on the autoindustry allowed non-NAFTA to enjoy more benefits than they should have. USMCA seems to fix that loophole. This may be a case of the medicine being worse than the disease, but it does address a concern of our side that was a problem under NAFTA.

also the comparisons done to the ideal. paper even makes the point that some aren't fair points to make in the real political world.
 
#177
#177
LouderVol said:
blah blah blah blah


the biggest negative was the auto market thing, which Trump had determined was a problem. whether or not it actually was is immaterial to the fact that it was something Trump keyed on. Under NAFTA the loop holes on the autoindustry allowed non-NAFTA to enjoy more benefits than they should have. USMCA seems to fix that loophole. This may be a case of the medicine being worse than the disease, but it does address a concern of our side that was a problem under NAFTA.

also the comparisons done to the ideal. paper even makes the point that some aren't fair points to make in the real political world.
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The auto industry did fantastically under NAFTA. Are we to understand that when he called it a terrible deal, it was because of auto?

He could have done anything with the USMCA and people would justify it.
 
#178
#178
n_huffhines said:
The auto industry did fantastically under NAFTA. Are we to understand that when he called it a terrible deal, it was because of auto?

He could have done anything with the USMCA and people would justify it.
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The auto industry did wonderfully with cheap to zero interest rates. We could have 100% unrestricted free trade and when interest rates climb sales will plummet.
 
#179
#179
n_huffhines said:
The auto industry did fantastically under NAFTA. Are we to understand that when he called it a terrible deal, it was because of auto?

He could have done anything with the USMCA and people would justify it.
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he Trump or he the author?
 
#180
#180
hog88 said:
The auto industry did wonderfully with cheap to zero interest rates. We could have 100% unrestricted free trade and when interest rates climb sales will plummet.
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So we had low interest rates for 25+ years and thast's why cars sold?

Riddle me this, despite low interest rates, if cars were 10% more expensive?, would we have seen more or fewer sales?

Not sure what your point is, but we got some concerning trends.

How Rising Interest Rates And Booming Transaction Prices Threaten New-Vehicle Sales
 
#181
#181
n_huffhines said:
So we had low interest rates for 25+ years and thast's why cars sold?

Riddle me this, despite low interest rates, if cars were 10% more expensive?, would we have seen more or fewer sales?

Not sure what your point is, but we got some concerning trends.

How Rising Interest Rates And Booming Transaction Prices Threaten New-Vehicle Sales
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Cars have always sold, otherwise they would have stopped making them. They haven't always sold like hotcakes though, remember the bailouts just a few years ago?

My point is that rising interest rate will do more damage to car sales than the new trade agreement. We have been spoiled by access to artificially cheap money for over a decade now all the while prices have risen. Hell even with cheap money terms have been extended to 72 and 84 months, the average Joe will not be able to afford a new car/truck when A1 credit gets you a 6.5-7% rate on a new car.
 
#182
#182
hog88 said:
Cars have always sold, otherwise they would have stopped making them. They haven't always sold like hotcakes though, remember the bailouts just a few years ago?

My point is that rising interest rate will do more damage to car sales than the new trade agreement. We have been spoiled by access to artificially cheap money for over a decade now all the while prices have risen. Hell even with cheap money terms have been extended to 72 and 84 months, the average Joe will not be able to afford a new car/truck when A1 credit gets you a 6.5-7% rate on a new car.
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Why does that matter to this convo? We're evaluating the trade deal. Its negative impact will be independent of the interest rates.

What makes you think interest rates will have a bigger impact than protectionism will? What are you basing that on?
 
#183
#183
n_huffhines said:
Why does that matter to this convo? We're evaluating the trade deal. Its negative impact will be independent of the interest rates.

What makes you think interest rates will have a bigger impact than protectionism will? What are you basing that on?
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Purely anecdotal information. My BIL is the F&I director for the largest dealership group in AR and they are already seeing sales slow, it's their biggest concern.
 
#184
#184
hog88 said:
Purely anecdotal information. My BIL is the F&I director for the largest dealership group in AR and they are already seeing sales slow, it's their biggest concern.
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That may be because they can already see the impact. Protectionism takes time to take effect and it's hard to see the effect. Interest rates have immediate and clear impact.

Also, if they sell used cars on their lot too, interest rates are obviously a much bigger concern for those (protectionism will likely lead to people hanging onto old cars longer, actually).
 
#185
#185
n_huffhines said:
That may be because they can already see the impact. Protectionism takes time to take effect and it's hard to see the effect. Interest rates have immediate and clear impact.

Also, if they sell used cars on their lot too, interest rates are obviously a much bigger concern for those.
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They are lots (plural), he's over F&I for 6 or 7 different dealerships. I'll ask him if the new trade agreement is even being discussed.
 
#186
#186
I know Huff hates anecdotes but we just bought a van for the wife and on the sticker it says 70% of parts are from US/Canada. And if you look up “Most American Car” lists many of the top 10 are 60%+ US sourced. And they are popular vehicles. If you include Canada and Mexico the percentage would be even higher. So 70% NA sourced isn’t going to be an issue for a lot of manufacturers.
 
#187
#187
DancingOutlaw said:
I know Huff hates anecdotes but we just bought a van for the wife and on the sticker it says 70% of parts are from US/Canada. And if you look up “Most American Car” lists many of the top 10 are 60%+ US sourced. And they are popular vehicles. If you include Canada and Mexico the percentage would be even higher. So 70% NA sourced isn’t going to be an issue for a lot of manufacturers.
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Then why is it a rule? All for show?

NAFTA is a terrible deal and Trump's protectionism is only a method for getting a better free trade deal.

has become

Don't worry, Trump's permanent protectionism isn't going to make a difference.
 
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#188
#188
n_huffhines said:
Then why is it a rule? All for show?

NAFTA is a terrible deal and Trump's protectionism is only a method for getting a better free trade deal.

has become

Don't worry, Trump's permanent protectionism isn't going to make a difference.
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I think so. Like when democrats cry about raising the minimum wage when no one is making it anyways.
 
#190
#190
n_huffhines said:
Wait, what? You think minimum wage laws don't have an impact? Seriously? Then why do Republicans (and me) cry about them so much?
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I think minimum wage laws are stupid, but who is making $7.15 now anyways? We were at the beach a couple weeks ago and Whataburger had a sign saying paying $13 an hour.
 
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