What's all the excitement about? - Page 2

chavisut · 06-23-2008, 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VolunteerHillbilly

Lets assume one of them gets three and one of them gets two. If everything else with the class stayed more or less on the same track and recruiting ended today the Vols would have an average ranking of 3.2 on Rivals, which should put them in the 15-20 neighborhood.

If you count our 3 JUCOs it should be higher than that.

sjt18 · 06-23-2008, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VolunteerHillbilly

Credible and correct don't always walk hand in hand. I'd rather be right than appear right. And I'm right.

It is all but impossible to be 100% negative and 100% right on any subject.

sjt18 · 06-23-2008, 05:04 PM

Phillips and Scholfield will probably both be 3* unless they have a really good Sr year, really bad SR year, or get injured.

sjt18 · 06-23-2008, 05:04 PM

Hall may only get 3* but he definitely shouldn't be 2* again.

KB5252 · 06-23-2008, 05:05 PM

I guess we should just refuse all commits until they are rated 4+ stars?

Vol423 · 06-23-2008, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VolunteerHillbilly

Lets assume one of them gets three and one of them gets two. If everything else with the class stayed more or less on the same track and recruiting ended today the Vols would have an average ranking of 3.2 on Rivals, which should put them in the 15-20 neighborhood.

...which would more than likely place UT somewhere between 5th and 7th in the SEC in recruiting. That's precisely my point. We're consistently losing ground.

Vol423 · 06-23-2008, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sjt18

If you count Sykes, UT has commits from four 4* before the end of June. The 08 class had four 4* in February with one of them being Gerald Williams who has been committed to UT since the Boer War. Douglas didn't really seem to strongly consider anyone else.

UT won two battles. Walls who as a longtime fan wanted to be a Vol so flipped from Ole Miss and Abrams-Ward. Abrams-Ward was really the only one where UT didn't have some obvious advantage and won a battle head to head.

UT has "won" several of these guys. They also may be catching some of them on the way up.

Are you seriously using 2008 as the measuring stick of a solid recruiting class?

armchairvol · 06-23-2008, 05:26 PM

You guys have to remember something important: The "Rivals Top 100" doesn't mean much at all. If some firm really spent a HUGE amount of time and money putting together a LARGE group of experience football scouts, sent them out across the country to watch a lot of HS football games and talk to coaches, gathered a ton of tape--then had all these people spend days/weeks compiling, analyzing, comparing notes--they put together a pretty solid list of the best, say, 200 prospects in America. Rivals isn't doing that--nobody is. Also: A lot of the best HS prospects don't even emerge until their senior year in high school--they are late bloomers and aren't even on the radar screen yet. They aren't on "the list"--and any top 100 list that isn't dramatically different in October/November from the top 100 list now is suspect. My point is: probably about half of the guys on the top 100 list now won't be among the best 100 in America five months from now, or shouldn't be.

**VolunteerHillbilly** · 06-23-2008, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KB5252

I guess we should just refuse all commits until they are rated 4+ stars?

I think they are doing exactly what they should be doing insofar as they have not accepted a commit from anyone less than 3* rated other than linemen, which are an area of desperate need as we all know. I would like to see them hold out for a bit more elite athletes at the skill positions than some of the guys that they have accepted this early in the game, but there is still time.

sjt, you should just accept my correctness and get on board the train to happytown. Your constant negativity towards my posts is going to give you an ulcer if you don't watch it.

Vol423 · 06-23-2008, 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by armchairvol

You guys have to remember something important: The "Rivals Top 100" doesn't mean much at all. If some firm really spent a HUGE amount of time and money putting together a LARGE group of experience football scouts, sent them out across the country to watch a lot of HS football games and talk to coaches, gathered a ton of tape--then had all these people spend days/weeks compiling, analyzing, comparing notes--they put together a pretty solid list of the best, say, 200 prospects in America. Rivals isn't doing that--nobody is. Also: A lot of the best HS prospects don't even emerge until their senior year in high school--they are late bloomers and aren't even on the radar screen yet. They aren't on "the list"--and any top 100 list that isn't dramatically different in October/November from the top 100 list now is suspect. My point is: probably about half of the guys on the top 100 list now won't be among the best 100 in America five months from now, or shouldn't be.

For everyone that believes that recruiting rankings don't mean anything, try reading this article. It disproves that myth.

NFL Stars: How recruiting translates to the Draft - AthlonSports.com

My compliments to Volman09, who originally posted the link to this article in another thread.

sjt18 · 06-23-2008, 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vol423

...which would more than likely place UT somewhere between 5th and 7th in the SEC in recruiting. That's precisely my point. We're consistently losing ground.

UT will only lose ground on the field... not in some subjective beauty contest.

I'm not saying talent isn't important. It is vital. But the difference between a 3* and 4* isn't quite as certain as many seem to believe.

sjt18 · 06-23-2008, 05:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vol423

Are you seriously using 2008 as the measuring stick of a solid recruiting class?

No. There was nothing in that post to suggest that I was. It will be solid or not solid based on how well they perform on the field. In fact, I'm saying that it almost couldn't have been worse. Of the highly rated players they pursued, they only won A-W without help from other factors.

Right now however, Poole and Johnson at the very least seem to have been underrated.

Vol423 · 06-23-2008, 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sjt18

UT will only lose ground on the field... not in some subjective beauty contest.

I'm not saying talent isn't important. It is vital. But the difference between a 3* and 4* isn't quite as certain as many seem to believe.

Really? The article that I linked above does seem to indicate a significant difference. It indicates that a 4-star recruit is basically three times as likely to be drafted into the NFL than a 3-star recruit. You might want to read it.

sjt18 · 06-23-2008, 05:59 PM

Vol423, that article actually confirms the point that some of us have made here. The recruiting svcs do pretty good at giving the great players they find high ratings... they just don't find all of the great players.

IOW's, they seldom overrate players (in part by limiting the % in higher ratings). However, they do underrate players. Even that article shows that 4* are more likely to be a top 10 draft choice than 5*. If the ratings were truly relevant... that shouldn't be. The 5* players should absolutely dominate the first round. More than 40% should be drafted for sure since 5* recruits are supposedly "can't miss".

You might say they cover almost the whole draft with 3-5* however they rate most players with BCS team attention 3*. That can hardly be claimed as redemption for them.

I think the ratings are valid for what they're intended to do. I think they're relevant. I also think there's more to building a winning football team than the opinions of the recruiting svcs.

chavisut · 06-23-2008, 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VolunteerHillbilly

I think they are doing exactly what they should be doing insofar as they have not accepted a commit from anyone less than 3* rated other than linemen, which are an area of desperate need as we all know. I would like to see them hold out for a bit more elite athletes at the skill positions than some of the guys that they have accepted this early in the game, but there is still time.

sjt, you should just accept my correctness and get on board the train to happytown. Your constant negativity towards my posts is going to give you an ulcer if you don't watch it.

Jarvis Giles, Thigpen, Stokes, and Oliver aren't elite athletes? Oliver might have been a 3 star, but look at his offer list. Dominique Allen is one of the highest rated FBs.