Tennessee's National Recruiting Outlook (Under Coach Butch Jones)

[flowd82]

A few random football recruiting statistics/facts:

-The last 3 UT recruiting classes (2014-2016, Butch Jones' first 3 full recruiting classes) have signed a combined total of 46 prospects rated as 5* prospects and/or 4* prospects. That total is the highest number UT has signed in a 3-year period in school history (Rivals.com began rating football prospects in 2002). The breakdown is: 11 total (1-5* & 10-4*) signed in 2016 class, 17 total (4-5* & 13-4*) signed in 2015 class, & 18 total (2-5* & 16-4*) signed in 2014 class.

-Using those same statistics comparatively, Tennessee has signed the 4th most combined 4* prospects & 5* prospects in the nation during the last 3 signing classes (2014-2016). A more detailed breakdown looks like:

Total 5* & 4* prospects signed from 2014-2016 (by school):
1) Alabama: 53
2) Florida State: 50
3) Ohio State: 47
4) Tennessee: 46
T5) Southern California: 45
T5) Auburn: 45
7) Louisiana State: 43
8) Georgia: 39
9) Notre Dame: 37
10) Texas A&M: 35
11) California Los Angeles: 34
12) Clemson: 33
T13) Texas: 32
T13) Oklahoma: 32
15) Florida: 30

-Interesting note: The only 3 college football programs ahead of Tennessee on that list (Bama, FSU, OSU), have all won a National Championship during that time-period (2014-2016).

-During the previously mentioned time-frame (2014-2016), UT has signed the #5 class in 2014, the #5 class in 2015, & the #15 class in 2016 according to Rivals.com rankings. That averages out to UT signing a class ranked 8.3 during that 3 year period. That 3-year average would rank Tennessee tied for 8th in the nation in that category. The full list is:

Average Class Rank From 2014-2016 Recruiting Classes:
1) Alabama: 1.3
2) Florida State: 3.0
3) Ohio State: 5.0
4) Louisiana State: 5.3
5) Southern California: 6.3
6) Clemson: 7.3
7) Georgia: 7.7
T8) Tennessee: 8.3
T8) Auburn: 8.3
10) Texas A&M: 10.7
11) Notre Dame: 11.3
12) California Los Angeles: 14.0
T13) Texas: 15.0
T13) Florida: 15.0
15) Ole Miss: 15.7
16) Oklahoma: 16.0
17) Stanford: 16.7
18) Miami: 20.0
19) South Carolina: 20.3
20) Penn State: 20.7
21) Michigan State: 21.3
22) Oregon: 23.7
T23) North Carolina: 25.0
T23) Arizona State: 25.0
25) Kentucky: 27.3
26) Michigan: 28.3
27) Arkansas: 28.7
28) Nebraska: 29.3
29) Mississippi State: 29.7
30) Baylor: 31.7

Butch has been amazing to Tennessee's football program in terms of program image, brand promotion & recognition, social media use, recruiting, etc. He has been a total revitalization to the football program & has helped the team in showing slight improvement on the field.

BUT, Tennessee has to/needs to (yes, I said it) win NOW. Butch certainly isn't considered to be on the "hot seat", but anything short of not solely winning the SEC East & making the SEC Championship game appearance is a complete disappointment. IMO.

Elite coaches win. It is time for Tennessee to win. No more excuses. No more room for that. Butch Jones is entering Year-4 at Tennessee. Excuses are in the past. If a HC is still making/using excuses in Year-4, then it is 100% the coaches' fault & responsibility. I'm not necessarily saying Jones does this or will do it, but Butch cannot blame Fulmer, Kiffin, Dooley, injuries, roster depletion, assistant coaches, YOUNGEST ROSTER IN NATION, or anything else anymore. It is Year-4 & he has had ample time to mold the roster & coaching staff into what he wants/ thinks he needs to be successful.

I'm glad Butch Jones is Tennessee's HC & will always be appreciative of the job he has done in 3 years no matter what the outcome is, but if Jones can't lead Tennessee to start winning big immediately then I don't know if I'm completely confident he is the HC to lead Tennessee back to championship level football. JMO. The statistics don't lie. The talent is there. In fact, Tennessee has assembled a roster that is easily one of the Top-5 most talented teams in the nation. Well, arguably anyway. 4th-most total 5* & 4* players signed in the last 3 years are on UT's roster. The only 3 teams that have signed more have won a National Championship the last 3 seasons. The coaching staff has improved (Shoop, Scott). I'm not saying that Butch Jones isn't a good coach or that he needs to win a NC next year or he will be fired. Nothing like that. But I don't think replicating last season's win total or even finishing 9-3 can be viewed as a success at all. I think Tennessee has to AT LEAST earn it's way to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game. With the talent UT has collected, anything else would be a disappointment, IMO.

Disclaimer: I fully believe Tennessee will improve on last season's win totals, beat Florida, make it to the SEC Championship, & ultimately have a successful season. I hope I am correct.

GBO. Vols, B****.

Later Rednecks!

 

[bigvol67]

Those numbers are looking great when compared to others. I truly believe thats going to translate on the field. Thanks for the numbers and post.

 

[sjt18]

Thanks for doing this. I was thinking along the same lines over the past couple of days but haven't had time to do the research. You did it better than me anyway.

Another angle, Jones has put 3 consecutive classes together that avg'd 3.5 stars or greater according to Rivals. That had not happened before. Jones has to be considered an elite recruiter at this point.

Also agree that a really good season is needed to keep recruiting momentum going.

The Vols should be talented and relatively deep at every position. By Jones' "ideal", UT is a little thin at WR... but by everyone else's standards they aren't.

I'm very excited to see what UT does with Croom at TE with his ability to also flex out.

 

[sjt18]

Jones has also found some pretty good 3* players like Sutton, Moseley, Vereen, et al.

I think getting guys others miss will always be important at UT.


VERY excited also to see what Shoop can do with a TALENTED defensive unit after seeing what he did with Vandy and PSU.

 

[tn4elvis]

All these numbers mean is we getting ready to open up a can of good old fashioned whoop azz Tennessee football on some folks.Can't wait.

 

[Halph66]

Very good information. I only disagree on these two fronts:

1) Injuries can always decimate a team, no matter how much talent they have. Sometimes a run of bad luck does have an impact.

2) There are four years worth of recruits on every team. Alabama, Florida State, and Ohio State have one more year to factor recruiting into the equation of number of 4 & 5 *s. None of those schools had head coaching changes during that period. In theory they are much stronger than Tennessee at this point. If we get a good recruiting class in 2017 then we should have National Championship aspirations.

If we don't make it to Atlanta in 2016, and keep the 2016 SEC Championship Game interesting at a minimum, then it will be a huge disappointment.

Awesome information. We have a major reason to be excited about the future. GBO!

 

[Vols_14]

Wondering why you censored Butch

 

[BaldBiker]

That's where we are and we're still considered a Senior light team. That has to be scary for everyone else.

 

[PEPPERJAX]

Nice work OP.

 

[VOLywood]

.

 

[CPA]

At Nashville NSD celebration today, CBJ said he gets player input on potential players they bring to campus. He said there were some 4/5 stars who players said would not fit Vol culture and they stopped recruitment. Complimented fans who followed recruits Twitter accounts and said they would brag about that. Looking froward to all instate talent next year. Both coordinators came. Thank

 

[BaldBiker]

At Nashville NSD celebration today, CBJ said he gets player input on potential players they bring to campus. He said there were some 4/5 stars who players said would not fit Vol culture and they stopped recruitment. Complimented fans who followed recruits Twitter accounts and said they would brag about that. Looking froward to all instate talent next year. Both coordinators came. Thank

This is very interesting and shows how much CBJ and the players trust and respect each other. Eliminating the possible thorns before they can become thorns.

 

[screenthis]

Terrific compilation of statistics, OP. I'm mostly on board with your comments towards the end as well. But, if we don't win the East (we should), what then? As you reflect, we may have the best recruiting job ever performed by a UT staff (over the last 3 years). Thus, I'd be leery of calling for a change even if we don't win the East.

I expect though that we'll once again see more progress. Each year, we win against one or more teams we hadn't been beating (Georgia and Missouri last year). This year, oh I hope its them Gators. But, then if lose to a Georgia and they win the East? I say still have to stay the course. My two cents...

 

[CPA]

Said Al Wilson told him the whole place has changed in 3 years. All repeated working on Technique not Tactics now and having a constant championship culture.

 

[Aesius]

This is very interesting and shows how much CBJ and the players trust and respect each other. Eliminating the possible thorns before they can become thorns.

Marlon Walls mentioned the culture change in his interview with Chris Vernon. He said that under Fulmer (via stories other players told him), Kiffin, and Dooley, a lot of players weren't really onboard with the "team" aspect and were just sort of looking out for themselves and padding their own stats. The team was also really into partying back then.

But he said Jones changed the culture so much, especially after Walls left, and that guys are completely invested in winning and getting the program back to where it's supposed to be, even at the expense of their social lives.

 

[MrVolton]

Nice job and good research. I enjoyed the read. Some eye-popping numbers there. Jones is definitley an elite recruiter, but I agree, he's probably going to have to capitalize on the field this year to maintain that kind of recruiting though.

 

[BaldBiker]

Marlon Walls mentioned the culture change in his interview with Chris Vernon. He said that under Fulmer (via stories other players told him), Kiffin, and Dooley, a lot of players weren't really onboard with the "team" aspect and were just sort of looking out for themselves and padding their own stats. The team was also really into partying back then.

But he said Jones changed the culture so much, especially after Walls left, and that guys are completely invested in winning and getting the program back to where it's supposed to be, even at the expense of their social lives.

That's what I want to hear. Don't get me wrong. I'm all about young people having fun, but wait until you graduate. I want to see pictures of trophies.....not mug shots dammit!!! :rock:

 

[VolPack22]

Lol at UF with 30 compared to our 46. We should smoke them for years to come. All it takes is winning against them one time to get that monkey of our back then we start our own 10 year streak.

 

[RunnersLunge]

2) There are four years worth of recruits on every team. Alabama, Florida State, and Ohio State have one more year to factor recruiting into the equation of number of 4 & 5 *s. None of those schools had head coaching changes during that period. I theory they are much stronger than Tennessee at this point.

-This

Plus redshirt years et cetera will make a difference on an entire team. Great depth is worth more than scrub depth- hence Butch's comment about taking so many years to truly build a program.

 

[BGKYVol]

Marlon Walls mentioned the culture change in his interview with Chris Vernon. He said that under Fulmer (via stories other players told him), Kiffin, and Dooley, a lot of players weren't really onboard with the "team" aspect and were just sort of looking out for themselves and padding their own stats. The team was also really into partying back then.

But he said Jones changed the culture so much, especially after Walls left, and that guys are completely invested in winning and getting the program back to where it's supposed to be, even at the expense of their social lives.

That may explain why there were such large numbers of transfers out of the 2014 class. Guys that weren't willing to buy into the "team first" culture.

 

[Atzar]

Agree that it's time to win. Last year proved we can play with anybody. Now we need to prove that we can beat anybody.

I'm not the type to predict a playoff appearance. Too much luck and circumstance play into that - things not necessarily within a team's control. But I absolutely think it's reasonable to expect this team to come out of the SEC East this year.

 

[tonybologna]

Thank you OP for that very detailed analogy & statistical data provided on recruiting. You're right! It's time to WIN!

 

[7Iron]

On the 3 year average their are 7 teams ahead of UT and to be fair we should go 7 places behind us. If we go to number 15 on the list that includes half of our schedule. Does that mean half of our games should be a toss up? It does on talent alone. This is were coaching makes a difference. 3-3 in those games should mean average SEC coaching. 5-1 or 6-0 should mean excellent coaching. I can't wait to see how we come out.

 

[Volunteer_Kirby]

It would be interesting if someone actually factored in attrition to get a better representation of the talent. I know we had a lot of attrition in 2014 class, something like 7 or 8 4 stars were lost due to attrition (excluding graduates like Weatherd).

 

[dirytkirby]

great post OP - I appreciate the facts, and appreciate when you stated your opinions as such. My only - slight - disagreement falls on this area - I believe it is a 6 year process for our program due to the TOTAL depletion / decimation leveled by the Kiffin/Dooley years and the programs decline.

The Bama / FSU / OSU machines rack up top talent year after year and have 4*s being redshirted (esp on the lines). We have not totally gotten there yet. The depth, strength, and experience that they gain makes a huge difference when there are injuries that happen. This will be the first year we can really start redshirting players that we had to start the last 3 years.

I believe we SHOULD win the East the year - because of where our rivals stand in their turnover of coaches + our relative stability and growth as a program (players and staff)

I believe Coach Jones can improve as he manages in-game situations better / the staff can do that (thus Shoop brought in).

I thought 10-2 was a realistic goal last year - and we saw how close that came to be - I believe 11-1 is very realistic this year

My patience for falling short of those goals may be a little longer than yours - but not much.

We are back in the national picture - the fanbase is united - the team has real confidence - Bama and Florida come to Knoxville - and Vandy still SUX

GBO!!