nicksjuzunk
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Missouri comes to K-town this week after a thrilling win against Texas A&M. Tennessee's win against Kentucky was somewhat less thrilling... as it should be. The Vols kept rolling and have built some very positive momentum going into the home stretch. Needing one more win to become bowl eligible, are they able to skin a tiger this week?
Fans are optimistic, but as most of us can admit, we are a bi-polar bunch. Most were ready to write off the season 5 quarters ago, now we think we are running the table. Let's have a look.
Keys to the game:
1. UT Defense vs. Mizzou Offense: From the beginning of the season, I liked our match up against USC. Their weakness on the DL played right into our strength. In a similar, yet opposite way, I like the way our defense matches up against Mizzou on O.
The Tennessee defense has had two main issues this year. The first, is good running-backs getting big runs in the 4th, after holding them for most of the game. This has not been horrific, but it has been there. The other weakness is letting great receivers go absolutely nuts on our secondary. As a whole, I don't think Mizzou can match up with us here. Let's take a closer look...
2. Mauk Star: Well... he's really not a star. Last year, some thought he would be great, but he hasn't had it this year, with the loss of his top receivers. Since Mizzou has played warm garbage outside of conference (losing to Indiana!) let's see how Mauk has done against the SEC.
134 YPG
5 TD
6 INT
Only once (SEC)has he thrown for over 200 yards, against an A&M defense that puts up about as much resistance as single ply toilet paper. Against the two best defenses they have played (UGA & FL), he passed for a TOTAL of 117 yards, and neither team would have what most would consider elite secondaries, as a unit.
With stats like that, how, in the name of Reggie White is this an 8-2 team? It defies logic... like Matt Darr's mustache. When they do throw it, they throw it to Bud Sasser who is having a solid year, considering the QB play he has been getting. Mizzou should not beat us through the air.
3. The other half: With Mizzou struggling to throw the ball, they will rely heavily on the running game, which also plays into Tennessee's strength. Leading rusher Russell Hansbrough went off on A&M (199 yds), but against other SEC teams, he averages a whopping 43 yards per game. Marcus Murphy manages about the same. No bruisers, and no game breakers here.
4. TN OL vs Mizzou DL: For me, this is the 2nd biggest battle, and the one that concerned me the most until Dobbs took over. Mizzou is a pretty good defensive team. They are especially good on the defensive line and as a unit, are +7 on turnovers for the year. Turnovers are literally THE only reason they beat Florida, scoring a total of exactly around 456 points off of Florida blunders.
Crowder appears to have been hurt pretty badly this week, and that is really bad news for a paper thin line. The line as been performing better with Dobbs at QB, and he has made them look much better with his ability to escape. Look for Bajakian to use Dobbs more in the running game this week, as it will likely be needed. As the defensive ends try to use their speed to get around the edges, the QB draw and inside running game will be effective counters.
Generally, Mizzou does not give up a lot of yards on the ground (131 per game) but when they have lost, Indiana and UGA averaged 225 per game. Both of those teams have beasts at running back, and we need Hurd and Dobbs to carry the load.
5. The battle of the 3rd: Tennessee and Mizzou have virtually identical 3rd down defensive numbers. Mizzou is just a little bit better at converting their own 3rd downs than the Vols are. This will be the third most important stat on Saturday. (#1 points, #2 turnovers, #3 3rd down)
So there it is. Provided Tennessee continues to play at the level they have been, and Mizzou does the same, I think we have a pretty close game. I could see this one going either way, although my own breakdown really seems to show the Vols have the upper hand. I've missed my Mizzou predictions two years in a row, because they always seem to find a way. Pinkel is a great coach, but dem Vols tho...
TN 24
Mizzou 20
Neyland is live for the night game. Vols become bowl eligible. Mizzou can't move the ball. TN offense comes back to earth a little bit, after playing two really bad defenses, but it is enough. :thumbsup:
Fans are optimistic, but as most of us can admit, we are a bi-polar bunch. Most were ready to write off the season 5 quarters ago, now we think we are running the table. Let's have a look.
Keys to the game:
1. UT Defense vs. Mizzou Offense: From the beginning of the season, I liked our match up against USC. Their weakness on the DL played right into our strength. In a similar, yet opposite way, I like the way our defense matches up against Mizzou on O.
The Tennessee defense has had two main issues this year. The first, is good running-backs getting big runs in the 4th, after holding them for most of the game. This has not been horrific, but it has been there. The other weakness is letting great receivers go absolutely nuts on our secondary. As a whole, I don't think Mizzou can match up with us here. Let's take a closer look...
2. Mauk Star: Well... he's really not a star. Last year, some thought he would be great, but he hasn't had it this year, with the loss of his top receivers. Since Mizzou has played warm garbage outside of conference (losing to Indiana!) let's see how Mauk has done against the SEC.
134 YPG
5 TD
6 INT
Only once (SEC)has he thrown for over 200 yards, against an A&M defense that puts up about as much resistance as single ply toilet paper. Against the two best defenses they have played (UGA & FL), he passed for a TOTAL of 117 yards, and neither team would have what most would consider elite secondaries, as a unit.
With stats like that, how, in the name of Reggie White is this an 8-2 team? It defies logic... like Matt Darr's mustache. When they do throw it, they throw it to Bud Sasser who is having a solid year, considering the QB play he has been getting. Mizzou should not beat us through the air.
3. The other half: With Mizzou struggling to throw the ball, they will rely heavily on the running game, which also plays into Tennessee's strength. Leading rusher Russell Hansbrough went off on A&M (199 yds), but against other SEC teams, he averages a whopping 43 yards per game. Marcus Murphy manages about the same. No bruisers, and no game breakers here.
4. TN OL vs Mizzou DL: For me, this is the 2nd biggest battle, and the one that concerned me the most until Dobbs took over. Mizzou is a pretty good defensive team. They are especially good on the defensive line and as a unit, are +7 on turnovers for the year. Turnovers are literally THE only reason they beat Florida, scoring a total of exactly around 456 points off of Florida blunders.
Crowder appears to have been hurt pretty badly this week, and that is really bad news for a paper thin line. The line as been performing better with Dobbs at QB, and he has made them look much better with his ability to escape. Look for Bajakian to use Dobbs more in the running game this week, as it will likely be needed. As the defensive ends try to use their speed to get around the edges, the QB draw and inside running game will be effective counters.
Generally, Mizzou does not give up a lot of yards on the ground (131 per game) but when they have lost, Indiana and UGA averaged 225 per game. Both of those teams have beasts at running back, and we need Hurd and Dobbs to carry the load.
5. The battle of the 3rd: Tennessee and Mizzou have virtually identical 3rd down defensive numbers. Mizzou is just a little bit better at converting their own 3rd downs than the Vols are. This will be the third most important stat on Saturday. (#1 points, #2 turnovers, #3 3rd down)
So there it is. Provided Tennessee continues to play at the level they have been, and Mizzou does the same, I think we have a pretty close game. I could see this one going either way, although my own breakdown really seems to show the Vols have the upper hand. I've missed my Mizzou predictions two years in a row, because they always seem to find a way. Pinkel is a great coach, but dem Vols tho...
TN 24
Mizzou 20
Neyland is live for the night game. Vols become bowl eligible. Mizzou can't move the ball. TN offense comes back to earth a little bit, after playing two really bad defenses, but it is enough. :thumbsup:
