nicksjuzunk
Coming home soon.
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Tennessee gets back to business after one of the better comebacks of the college football season, and a well deserved bye-week. Kentucky comes to town, and while the Wildcats had some heads turning with some early season exploits, those same heads are now shaking back and forth, and muttering, "Same ole' Kentucky". Let's take a look at the Wildcats.
The started off the season on fire, destroying traditional college powerhouses Ohio, UT... Martin, Vandy, UL Monroe, and squeezing out a signature win against South Carolina. Florida beat them in 3 overtimes, but that win was a bit dubious with a clock situation, and Kentucky should have had the W there as well.
The next 4 weeks were not so kind, with 3 ranked teams and a nearly ranked Mizzou. KY gave up an average of 42 ppg over that span, so I think you know how that turned out for them. Kentucky is now looking at the very real possibility of missing out on a bowl game, in spite of winning 5 of the first 6 games... ouch. They need to win against TN or Louisville, and those will not come easy. The fact that they have not won on the road, and both of these games are away from home does not help their prospects.
1. Throw in the Towles: 2014 recruit Drew Barker was supposed to be the next great QB at KY, but Patrick Towles has stepped in, and is a pretty good QB. He is efficient with the ball (58.6%), and outside of the FL game (3 int) he does not turn the ball over (3 int, 9 games). He also is a threat to run, though KY does not always opt to use him that way, the last three games, he has averaged 17 carries and 46 yards.
TN will need to contain the edges, which they have done pretty well with this year, and be aware of him taking off for 3rd down conversions. We need to be careful of the QB draw. Towles can be a hot or cold passer, throwing for 300+, or 150, with nearly the same attempts. Let's keep that to 150.
2. WR Lockdown: Our secondary has been having epic breakdowns the last two games. I checked the roster... no Cooper for KY. Kentucky spreads the ball around to a lot of guys, and no one is nearly on the level of the Coopers. Ryan Timmons is the leading receiver, but good teams (aside from Miss State) have been able to take him out of the game. Demarco Robinson is small and shifty, Javess Blue doesn't get a lot of catches (21), but 1/4 of the time, he takes it to the endzone.
The secondary needs to play smart football, and that should be enough. None of these guys are going to have a career day if the Vols play sound, fundamental defense. Look for KY to get creative in their play calling to try to get the Vols out of position.
3. RB by committee: Kentucky spreads their carries about as well as any team you'll see. A total of 12 carries are between their number 1 and number 4 ball carriers. Different guys show up at different games, so it is hard to tell what you are going to get here. No matter who is carrying the ball, the top 4 guys are averaging 5.65 YPC. Stanley Williams hit UGA for 100 on 10 carries, so maybe he has the hot hand this week...
4. Run: Kentucky gives up 200 yards per game on the ground. Against SEC teams, not named Vandy... 269. Tennessee has had a week off to heal up. Dobbs... Hurd... Scott. Yep. The jimmies will be rustled, and they will not be rustled gently. Still waiting for Hurd to peel off some big runs?
opcorn:
5. Pass enough: On paper, Kentucky has a surprisingly stout pass defense forcing a pretty good Dylan Thompson into 3 INTS but they gave up 4 passing TD's to UGA's Mason and 295 yards to Jeff Driskell, so then again...
A closer look shows that teams simply don't need to throw the ball to beat KY. Opposing QB's have completed 56% of their passes, which is the same as Tennessee. Dobbs will need to complete enough passes to keep the defense honest, but he does not need to win the game with his arm. Look for Astro to go for around 200 through the air. Run the ball effectively, win.
6. Don't turn it over: Negates everything else if it happens.
7. Score TD's in the redzone: We have not done this well.
Kentucky thought they had struck gold as the season began, but reality has sunk in, and it is only fool's gold. They will be ready for this game, because they hate Tennessee. It's not going to matter though. As long as Tennessee does not have a horrific amount of turnovers and can actually score in the redzone, we win and pretty well at that. KY has not had a bye-week in ages, TN just had theirs. This will be a fun game.
TN 41
KY 20
The started off the season on fire, destroying traditional college powerhouses Ohio, UT... Martin, Vandy, UL Monroe, and squeezing out a signature win against South Carolina. Florida beat them in 3 overtimes, but that win was a bit dubious with a clock situation, and Kentucky should have had the W there as well.
The next 4 weeks were not so kind, with 3 ranked teams and a nearly ranked Mizzou. KY gave up an average of 42 ppg over that span, so I think you know how that turned out for them. Kentucky is now looking at the very real possibility of missing out on a bowl game, in spite of winning 5 of the first 6 games... ouch. They need to win against TN or Louisville, and those will not come easy. The fact that they have not won on the road, and both of these games are away from home does not help their prospects.
1. Throw in the Towles: 2014 recruit Drew Barker was supposed to be the next great QB at KY, but Patrick Towles has stepped in, and is a pretty good QB. He is efficient with the ball (58.6%), and outside of the FL game (3 int) he does not turn the ball over (3 int, 9 games). He also is a threat to run, though KY does not always opt to use him that way, the last three games, he has averaged 17 carries and 46 yards.
TN will need to contain the edges, which they have done pretty well with this year, and be aware of him taking off for 3rd down conversions. We need to be careful of the QB draw. Towles can be a hot or cold passer, throwing for 300+, or 150, with nearly the same attempts. Let's keep that to 150.
2. WR Lockdown: Our secondary has been having epic breakdowns the last two games. I checked the roster... no Cooper for KY. Kentucky spreads the ball around to a lot of guys, and no one is nearly on the level of the Coopers. Ryan Timmons is the leading receiver, but good teams (aside from Miss State) have been able to take him out of the game. Demarco Robinson is small and shifty, Javess Blue doesn't get a lot of catches (21), but 1/4 of the time, he takes it to the endzone.
The secondary needs to play smart football, and that should be enough. None of these guys are going to have a career day if the Vols play sound, fundamental defense. Look for KY to get creative in their play calling to try to get the Vols out of position.
3. RB by committee: Kentucky spreads their carries about as well as any team you'll see. A total of 12 carries are between their number 1 and number 4 ball carriers. Different guys show up at different games, so it is hard to tell what you are going to get here. No matter who is carrying the ball, the top 4 guys are averaging 5.65 YPC. Stanley Williams hit UGA for 100 on 10 carries, so maybe he has the hot hand this week...
4. Run: Kentucky gives up 200 yards per game on the ground. Against SEC teams, not named Vandy... 269. Tennessee has had a week off to heal up. Dobbs... Hurd... Scott. Yep. The jimmies will be rustled, and they will not be rustled gently. Still waiting for Hurd to peel off some big runs?
opcorn:5. Pass enough: On paper, Kentucky has a surprisingly stout pass defense forcing a pretty good Dylan Thompson into 3 INTS but they gave up 4 passing TD's to UGA's Mason and 295 yards to Jeff Driskell, so then again...
A closer look shows that teams simply don't need to throw the ball to beat KY. Opposing QB's have completed 56% of their passes, which is the same as Tennessee. Dobbs will need to complete enough passes to keep the defense honest, but he does not need to win the game with his arm. Look for Astro to go for around 200 through the air. Run the ball effectively, win.
6. Don't turn it over: Negates everything else if it happens.
7. Score TD's in the redzone: We have not done this well.
Kentucky thought they had struck gold as the season began, but reality has sunk in, and it is only fool's gold. They will be ready for this game, because they hate Tennessee. It's not going to matter though. As long as Tennessee does not have a horrific amount of turnovers and can actually score in the redzone, we win and pretty well at that. KY has not had a bye-week in ages, TN just had theirs. This will be a fun game.
TN 41
KY 20
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