Excellent Recruiting Article in this year’s edition of Rocky Top Tennessee

#1

Volosaurus rex

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#1
Rocky Top Tennessee Magazine just hit the newsstands today and, after a brief perusal, I should point out that there are some really interesting articles in this year’s edition. The most germane to this forum is “Recruiting Matters” by editor Joel Hollingsworth, which analyzes data on this topic in a manner similar to threads initiated here by daj2576. Hollingsworth also relies on sliding four-year recruiting rankings but does not specify whether his figures are derived exclusively from Rivals.com, for example, or whether they represent a composite of rankings provided by the major recruiting services. In any event, four intriguing findings emerge from his piece:

(1) With the exceptions of Texas in 2005 and Auburn in 2010, no national champion has had an average recruiting ranking for the four years prior to their championship which was lower than 6th. If you want a comparative frame of reference from Tennessee’s not-so-distant past, our recruiting classes from 1994-97 were ranked, according to Rivals.com, 2nd, 12th, 3rd and 5th, respectively, for an average of 5.5, which, as the foundation for the ’98 Vols, conforms nicely with data presented above. This provides an excellent statistical target to shoot for as Butch continues to restock the talent pool.

(2) Hollingsworth ultimately concludes that “If you want a national championship, finish in the top four of the four-year recruiting rankings. You can have a little leeway if you have a contender for the Heisman trophy at quarterback.”

(3) Based on this methodology, Alabama, Ohio State, Florida State and Florida should, in that order, be the leading contenders for the national championship entering the 2014 season. Interestingly, despite our recent onfield woes, Tennessee’s four-year recruiting average is 13th, which places us in the bottom of the “Long Shots” tier, immediately behind Oklahoma and just ahead of Michigan, Texas A & M, Oregon and South Carolina. As we all know, heavy attrition during this period, enormous turnover and incompetence within the coaching staff, and uneven distribution of surviving talent have contributed mightily to the worst four-year period in Tennessee football history in the last 35 years.

(4) Hollingsworth also provides an excellent composite and season-by-season recruiting rankings chart for the “Top 25 Recruiting Teams of the Past 13 Years (2002-2014).” Over the course of that period, USC leads the pack, followed by Florida, LSU, Florida State and Alabama. Georgia comes in sixth and Tennessee, despite its declining fortunes during this period, still finishes 10th, immediately behind Ohio State and just ahead of Auburn.
 
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#4
#4
Interesting. But this also proves several things:

1) Butch needs more than 3 years to turn this thing around, but he's off to a great start. #5 class last year, and currently ranked #11 for 2015, and that's without McKenzie, Gibson, Settle, D.J. Jones, Josh Sweat, Chris Clark, Christian Kirk, Drew Richmond, Alvin Kamara, all of which are possible, among others. VERY possible for us to finish Top 5 with those guys left.

2) These stats are only relevant if two things happen:
1) The majority of players live up to their "ratings" that made them part of a Top 5 class.
2) The players actually stay for 3-5 years. We don't have to say anything here at Tennessee about the detriments of attrition.


But it's definitely no secret that recruiting is the lifeblood of a program, and high level recruiting is what is needed for championships.

I feel like there are 3 levels of recruiting for schools. The level depends on the school's resources and success.

1) There are schools that must rely on "diamonds in the rough" and low level recruits to win, and they must have coaches that develop that talent. Of course, these schools normally have 4 years with their athletes, and normally have a higher level of stability due to lower expectations on coaches.

2) There are schools that have had success in times past, and have the resources to attract a high level recruit, but still must rely on proper player development, and cannot win without the development of average 3* recruits.

3) There are schools that have no problem attracting high level recruits, and who occasionally may have a bust, but typically are able to develop the already good players they have into better players, and then when those great players graduate or go to the draft, they just reload with better ones.

I feel like UT is very obviously a 2 that is on the verge of being a 3.

We obviously CAN attract highly rated recruits, and have. However, we are not to the point where we "reload" every year, like an Alabama or USC, or Ohio State, or whoever you consider in that class.

We are in a place where we have highly rated recruits, but we still must depend HIGHLY on player development. In no point is this ever more important than right now. And that remains to be the biggest unknown of Butch Jones and staff: how will they develop the players they get?

If Butch and staff can develop a reputation of developing players, and keep recruiting the level of players they are now....holy cow.

Just gotta give it time. It's gonna happen.
 
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#5
#5
I think some are underestimating the importance and impact that this legacy class will become. Most of these young men have very big shoes to fill and will play very chippy football. We can already see the camaraderie established that they used to recruit others. In the very near future - these young men will be one of CBJ's best recruiting tools, especially in the state of Tennessee. Butch was correct in laying the foundation. The fans just have to be a bit more patient. Never more so true than this upcoming season.
 
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#6
#6
I think some are underestimating the importance and impact that this legacy class will become. Most of these young men have very big shoes to fill and will play very chippy football. We can already see the camaraderie established that they used to recruit others. In the very near future - these young men will be one of CBJ's best recruiting tools, especially in the state of Tennessee. Butch was correct in laying the foundation. The fans just have to be a bit more patient. Never more so true than this upcoming season.

I could not agree more, and fans HAVE to be PATIENT and supportive if this team struggles this season to get its legs under it. The momentum that CBJ is building will be challenged this year and whining and poor mouthing would only hurt the cause.. Its also extremely important in my mind to reward the coaches who are the strongest recruiters with whatever is necessary to keep them in place. Also, as I have said in many many posts... Defensive Tackles.. lots of em!:clapping:
 
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#7
#7
thanks for sharing OP, nice article. the Ohio States, FSU's and USC's of the world also play pansies week-in week-out thus have a better shot of making the game, so that stat is a little skewed.
 
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#9
#9
Interesting. But this also proves several things:

1) Butch needs more than 3 years to turn this thing around, but he's off to a great start. #5 class last year, and currently ranked #11 for 2015, and that's without McKenzie, Gibson, Settle, D.J. Jones, Josh Sweat, Chris Clark, Christian Kirk, Drew Richmond, Alvin Kamara, all of which are possible, among others. VERY possible for us to finish Top 5 with those guys left.
.

Not trying to be an a hole but I think I saw Chris Clark just cancelled his visit to us
 
#10
#10
So we are going to be contenders for the NC this year! Sweet... Seriously though, problem is we lost so many players. Those other programs have had stability at the coach and retained most of the recruits. We have not, but we're on our way
 
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#12
#12
I think some are underestimating the importance and impact that this legacy class will become. Most of these young men have very big shoes to fill and will play very chippy football. We can already see the camaraderie established that they used to recruit others. In the very near future - these young men will be one of CBJ's best recruiting tools, especially in the state of Tennessee. Butch was correct in laying the foundation. The fans just have to be a bit more patient. Never more so true than this upcoming season.

What, exactly, is "chippy" football?
 
#13
#13
Scientific evidence that proves how good Muschamp is ... for the rest of the SEC

In hindsight, I'm glad UT didn't back up the proverbial 'truck of money' fans always like to reference when Muschamp was in the mix. Sure, Willie had one good season but his body of work has been pretty shoddy for a guy making $3mi and considering the talent level he's had to work with.

Dooley sucked more but it's safe to assume Muschamp's record would have been just as bad here but at a higher price tag and we'd still want to can him and likely get stuck with an even bigger buy-out than CDD's.

It was a bumpy ride and the jury's still out but I like our chances with Butch.
 
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#14
#14
If we get all the ppl tennhopeful505 put on his post we win championship next year, dang bruh. That a dream team right there.
 
#15
#15
If we get all the ppl tennhopeful505 put on his post we win championship next year, dang bruh. That a dream team right there.

Yes, people must realize that for a coach to bring a program back that has been down for a while, requires some time. Besides being a good coach with a good staff in place, he must be a great recruiter year after year and be able to develop players and hold on to them to build depth. I like where we appear to be headed. If CBJ if able to win the games he should and some he isn't supposed to, then the recruits will keep coming. He seems very good at keeping the UT brand in the limelight. So "If you build it, they will come" seems appropriate. As a fan for 45 of my 60 years, I see a bright future with improvement coming soon.
FLAME AWAY YOU " NATTERING NABOBS OF NEGATIVITY"
 
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#17
#17
So we are going to be contenders for the NC this year! Sweet... Seriously though, problem is we lost so many players. Those other programs have had stability at the coach and retained most of the recruits. We have not, but we're on our way

No, but it says that we are going to own Spurrier again. Stick a fork in him, he's done.
 
#20
#20
Interesting. But this also proves several things:

1) Butch needs more than 3 years to turn this thing around, but he's off to a great start. #5 class last year, and currently ranked #11 for 2015, and that's without McKenzie, Gibson, Settle, D.J. Jones, Josh Sweat, Chris Clark, Christian Kirk, Drew Richmond, Alvin Kamara, all of which are possible, among others. VERY possible for us to finish Top 5 with those guys left.

2) These stats are only relevant if two things happen:
1) The majority of players live up to their "ratings" that made them part of a Top 5 class.
2) The players actually stay for 3-5 years. We don't have to say anything here at Tennessee about the detriments of attrition.


But it's definitely no secret that recruiting is the lifeblood of a program, and high level recruiting is what is needed for championships.

I feel like there are 3 levels of recruiting for schools. The level depends on the school's resources and success.

1) There are schools that must rely on "diamonds in the rough" and low level recruits to win, and they must have coaches that develop that talent. Of course, these schools normally have 4 years with their athletes, and normally have a higher level of stability due to lower expectations on coaches.

2) There are schools that have had success in times past, and have the resources to attract a high level recruit, but still must rely on proper player development, and cannot win without the development of average 3* recruits.

3) There are schools that have no problem attracting high level recruits, and who occasionally may have a bust, but typically are able to develop the already good players they have into better players, and then when those great players graduate or go to the draft, they just reload with better ones.

I feel like UT is very obviously a 2 that is on the verge of being a 3.

We obviously CAN attract highly rated recruits, and have. However, we are not to the point where we "reload" every year, like an Alabama or USC, or Ohio State, or whoever you consider in that class.

We are in a place where we have highly rated recruits, but we still must depend HIGHLY on player development. In no point is this ever more important than right now. And that remains to be the biggest unknown of Butch Jones and staff: how will they develop the players they get?

If Butch and staff can develop a reputation of developing players, and keep recruiting the level of players they are now....holy cow.

Just gotta give it time. It's gonna happen.


Excellent points. With respect to the recruiting tiers that you identified, I would submit, as I presume you intended, that these are not static. I would also contend that there are very, very few programs that, year-in and year-out, could be categorized as tier 3. Yes, the proverbial baboon could recruit well at Florida and the same could be said for USC and Texas. However, recruiting success even at programs like these can take a nosedive if there is a competitor that can take advantage of a decline in onfield success. It is in our best interest for both Miami and FSU to be strong in order to somewhat dilute the quality of recruiting classes signed by Florida. I agree with your characterization of the situation at UT. The Big Orange's history and tradition makes it a program at which recruiting success is not terribly difficult to sustain . . . once you have it humming again at a high level. I hope that the quality and quantity of blue-chip prospects in North Carolina and Virginia this year will become the new norm. In conjunction with the improving caliber of prospects in the Volunteer State, these developments would make Butch's job on the recruiting trail much easier.
 
#21
#21
Was this years class included in the average? It seems like a 13th ranking is way high . I agree we've got to give CBJ at least four maybe five years. This years class was Fulmer like and we need at least two more to build depth. Nice read it gets me thinking and ready for the future.GBO
 
#23
#23
The fact is, high school recruits are looking for the following.

1. A place where they can eventually get to the NFL.

2. A place where they can have a great college experience playing where they do.

3. A place where they can have a substantial education.

If you really look at it, those are the only three things that seem to really matter. Sure, the decision might come down to "whose uniforms are cooler?" But that's only after the first three things are considered, and there is a tie.

The prospects that you need to get in order to be at the top are looking for one, most or all of those three things.

They're looking for a coach that can develop them from where they are, and make them ready for the NFL.

They're looking for a school that plays solid competition and that will get them noticed on a national scale.

They're looking for a coach that will have a relationship with them and take care of them, where they can feel at ease while there.

They're looking for a place to prove themselves and to play football at the highest level.

This is essentially why the same teams over and over again get great players.

So, how does Tennessee get back to the top? You mimic the model of the top teams.

1. You create a culture of competition where only the best survive.

2. You make sure that those best are marketed well, and put in positions to be appealing to NFL scouts, ultimately resulting in a draft position. This starts in recruiting, knowing exactly the type of players you want for your system. A talented player in the wrong position or used in the wrong way can equal a undrafted player.

3. You foster relationships with the players, pushing them, but also treating them as men.

4. You schedule games that allow them to be in a National Spotlight, and that puts them in a position to prove themselves against elite talent.

5. You award the best players the best spots. Seniority does not mean a hill of beans in a successful program. If a senior loses the position to a freshman, then that means the team got better, and there's another 5* freshman out there who thinks that next year, the position can be his, and he wants to come try his luck.


You DON'T just hand people positions because they've been here, or because they were a prized recruit.

You DON'T schedule cupcake games that will never air on network tv, or that won't allow analysts to see how talented your team really is.

You DON'T keep to yourself and not promote your players to NFL scouts.

You DON'T treat your players like crap, but you don't coddle them like babies either. You treat them like men, with expectations and responsibilities and accountability when they don't meet them.


This is essentially what Saban does. Why else would kids be beating down the door to play for him? Sure, Bama is a good program and all. But Saban could be at Vandy, and could create the same results. Why? Because he follows that model.

If you play for Saban, you're going to get better. And if you get better enough, you're going to play. And if you play, you're going to get better. Because if you don't, you're going to lose your job. And if you get better enough then, then you'll get drafted. Because you'll have continually gotten better your 4 years there. Or 3.

And if you refuse to work and get better? Then you're not going to be a part of the team, because ain't nobody got time for that. And if you're not going to keep the rules, and go to class, then you're not going to be on the team.

But if you're going to come in and work, you're going to be on a National stage, playing top level competition, and you're going to receive the opportunity to become as good as you possibly can be.

I'm not crushing on Saban at all, but that is just what he does, and he's successful because of it. He doesn't want people who won't work, and who won't get better.


Butch is going to create that culture here. Competition is going to get fierce. And each year, there's going to be more 4 and 5 stars coming in, trying to take the place of the 4 or 5 star ahead of them. And if they're good enough, they'll get the job. And if they're not, then they won't be there for long.

You must expect excellence. And if you expect it, and you settle for nothing less, eventually you'll get it.
 

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