Volosaurus rex
Doctorate in Volology
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Rocky Top Tennessee Magazine just hit the newsstands today and, after a brief perusal, I should point out that there are some really interesting articles in this years edition. The most germane to this forum is Recruiting Matters by editor Joel Hollingsworth, which analyzes data on this topic in a manner similar to threads initiated here by daj2576. Hollingsworth also relies on sliding four-year recruiting rankings but does not specify whether his figures are derived exclusively from Rivals.com, for example, or whether they represent a composite of rankings provided by the major recruiting services. In any event, four intriguing findings emerge from his piece:
(1) With the exceptions of Texas in 2005 and Auburn in 2010, no national champion has had an average recruiting ranking for the four years prior to their championship which was lower than 6th. If you want a comparative frame of reference from Tennessees not-so-distant past, our recruiting classes from 1994-97 were ranked, according to Rivals.com, 2nd, 12th, 3rd and 5th, respectively, for an average of 5.5, which, as the foundation for the 98 Vols, conforms nicely with data presented above. This provides an excellent statistical target to shoot for as Butch continues to restock the talent pool.
(2) Hollingsworth ultimately concludes that If you want a national championship, finish in the top four of the four-year recruiting rankings. You can have a little leeway if you have a contender for the Heisman trophy at quarterback.
(3) Based on this methodology, Alabama, Ohio State, Florida State and Florida should, in that order, be the leading contenders for the national championship entering the 2014 season. Interestingly, despite our recent onfield woes, Tennessees four-year recruiting average is 13th, which places us in the bottom of the Long Shots tier, immediately behind Oklahoma and just ahead of Michigan, Texas A & M, Oregon and South Carolina. As we all know, heavy attrition during this period, enormous turnover and incompetence within the coaching staff, and uneven distribution of surviving talent have contributed mightily to the worst four-year period in Tennessee football history in the last 35 years.
(4) Hollingsworth also provides an excellent composite and season-by-season recruiting rankings chart for the Top 25 Recruiting Teams of the Past 13 Years (2002-2014). Over the course of that period, USC leads the pack, followed by Florida, LSU, Florida State and Alabama. Georgia comes in sixth and Tennessee, despite its declining fortunes during this period, still finishes 10th, immediately behind Ohio State and just ahead of Auburn.
(1) With the exceptions of Texas in 2005 and Auburn in 2010, no national champion has had an average recruiting ranking for the four years prior to their championship which was lower than 6th. If you want a comparative frame of reference from Tennessees not-so-distant past, our recruiting classes from 1994-97 were ranked, according to Rivals.com, 2nd, 12th, 3rd and 5th, respectively, for an average of 5.5, which, as the foundation for the 98 Vols, conforms nicely with data presented above. This provides an excellent statistical target to shoot for as Butch continues to restock the talent pool.
(2) Hollingsworth ultimately concludes that If you want a national championship, finish in the top four of the four-year recruiting rankings. You can have a little leeway if you have a contender for the Heisman trophy at quarterback.
(3) Based on this methodology, Alabama, Ohio State, Florida State and Florida should, in that order, be the leading contenders for the national championship entering the 2014 season. Interestingly, despite our recent onfield woes, Tennessees four-year recruiting average is 13th, which places us in the bottom of the Long Shots tier, immediately behind Oklahoma and just ahead of Michigan, Texas A & M, Oregon and South Carolina. As we all know, heavy attrition during this period, enormous turnover and incompetence within the coaching staff, and uneven distribution of surviving talent have contributed mightily to the worst four-year period in Tennessee football history in the last 35 years.
(4) Hollingsworth also provides an excellent composite and season-by-season recruiting rankings chart for the Top 25 Recruiting Teams of the Past 13 Years (2002-2014). Over the course of that period, USC leads the pack, followed by Florida, LSU, Florida State and Alabama. Georgia comes in sixth and Tennessee, despite its declining fortunes during this period, still finishes 10th, immediately behind Ohio State and just ahead of Auburn.
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