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Old 01-17-2013, 12:15 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Huge snow may affect recruiting

It looks like we may be ok here by Friday afternoon but Virginia, North and possibly South Carolina may be in a world of hurt until at least Saturday. Hopefully this will not affect any of our weekend visitors but I just pulled the following post off a Pro Met board posted at 12:55 AM Thursday

just looked at the progression of RAP model through hour 18. We're looking down the barrel of a very special event here. Look for your local forecasters and NWS offices to react soon, with more vigor. This is almost an unprecedented event, but March 2009 is the lastest we can find , I'm sure there are others. The upper low is taking shape now in western Mississippi and will close almost to 3 contours by Atlanta, taking on negative tilt. At first, the heavy rains, but the 850s' really crash in Alabama and Georgia, and this will spell a world of hurt when the moisture totally wraps around the 5H low, not to mention the 7H low. and 850. The track will absolutely cream eastern TN at first then spill quickly into western NC mountains and foothills by dark. The track of the 5H is probably mishandled by all models, as I've been saying for days. On the northwest side, you're looking at some convection and serious rates of snowfall. This will probably eclipse the 2009 event in parts of western NC and VA because this airmass is actually juicier than that one. Look at the water potential maps on this one, unbelievable. Turn that into snowfall in western NC and VA, eastern TN, and northeast GA and I think we could be looking at a really unprecedented event. Same goes for everywhere northwest of the upper low in northern Alabama, northern to central GA and then a nearly stationary band for Upstate SC to western NC for a while. The RATE of snowfall will be extreme, I can't express that enough.

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Old 01-17-2013, 12:21 AM   #2 (permalink)
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maybe it will miss us. It is about time for UT to get a break. I can't remember one since 98 arky game
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Old 01-17-2013, 12:41 AM   #3 (permalink)
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maybe it will miss us. It is about time for UT to get a break. I can't remember one since 98 arky game
I'm glad Quez8 came in last weekend because I'm thinking there will be no getting over the mountains safely this weekend. Hopefully Lawson, Jenkins, Bellamy and especially Jaylen Miller are flying in just in case. Very doubtful Miller will be here this weekend if he isn't.

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Old 01-17-2013, 12:46 AM   #4 (permalink)
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How do preliminary estimates of snowfall compare with what we received in the March 1993 blizzard? In terms of its true meterological definition, not popular parlance, that is the only blizzard I have personally experienced. I was on campus then and, as best I recall, Knoxville received somewhere between 14 and 17 inches of snow. McGhee Tyson Airport reported 15.1 inches officially (Storm of the Century | WATE 6 News - Knoxville, Tennessee).
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Old 01-17-2013, 12:50 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Don't know about snow, but I saw this picture at the Knox News:

Greenway going under Neyland. | Photos | iM
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Old 01-17-2013, 12:55 AM   #6 (permalink)
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How do preliminary estimates of snowfall compare with what we received in the March 1993 blizzard? In terms of its true meterological definition, not popular parlance, that is the only blizzard I have personally experienced. I was on campus then and, as best I recall, Knoxville received somewhere between 14 and 17 inches of snow. McGhee Tyson Airport reported 15.1 inches officially (Storm of the Century | WATE 6 News - Knoxville, Tennessee).
No comparison to 1993 here we're probably looking at 3-6" max and that's if the storm really bombs out (is bad). If the forecast verifies Sevier County eastern Blount County may be in the 6-9" range. Mountains likely in the 12-18" but around here I never believe it until I see it. A large area is going to get buried by this storm but right now it looks like 3"-6" for Knoxville. Ground temps will be a problem here but if this storm bombs trees will be falling left and right after all this rain.
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Old 01-17-2013, 02:15 AM   #7 (permalink)
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i was seeing on the weather channel earlier that knoxville could get 6-9 inches. so in reality its probably 1-2.its never what they say.
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Old 01-17-2013, 03:49 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Can someone educate me on what a 5h, 7h, and an 850 low is? My job requires me to be all over this area. The op's comment on the Rate of snowfall has me concerned. It's difficult to see 50 ft in front of you with moderately heavy snow.
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Old 01-17-2013, 03:57 AM   #9 (permalink)
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i was seeing on the weather channel earlier that knoxville could get 6-9 inches. so in reality its probably 1-2.its never what they say.
You're right 24+ snow forecasts are rarely accurate and not just for Knoxville however it is particularly hard to nail a snow forecast here in the valley. I hoping for some rare thunder-snow during the late afternoon/early evening. That's the shiz
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Old 01-17-2013, 04:12 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Can someone educate me on what a 5h, 7h, and an 850 low is? My job requires me to be all over this area. The op's comment on the Rate of snowfall has me concerned. It's difficult to see 50 ft in front of you with moderately heavy snow.
The 5h is an upper level low pressure and the 7h is a surface low pressure. The 850mb is just a map denoting upper air temps/wind etc at approximately 5000 ft. In this case it helps with pinpointing when and where the transition from rain to snow will occur. Glad you asked?

Last I saw the winter storm watch was cancelled but the snow forecast was upped to 5-8". Typical nobody really knows. My best guess we get nothing except showers until at least 3-4 pm and after that all bets are off especially east and southeast of Knoxville. It may snow like a mother trucker with giant snowball flakes for 3-4 hrs this evening or it may do absolutely nothing. Definitely nothing to worry about until at least late afternoon.

ps. just noticed you were in Crossville. It will get icy with a little snow and sleet by mid afternoon but best chances of a significant snow event are generally from Knoxville east.

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Old 01-17-2013, 06:16 AM   #11 (permalink)
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Damn.
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Old 01-17-2013, 06:34 AM   #12 (permalink)
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What is your opinion on snowfall amounts for Kingsport TN?
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Old 01-17-2013, 06:36 AM   #13 (permalink)
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I just looked at my weather ap on my phone. They're call for snow showers (1-3 inches) this evening and clear skies both Friday and Saturday with a high of 45 and 53 respectively. To the disappointment of my kids, I don't think snow will be a factor this weekend.
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Old 01-17-2013, 06:48 AM   #14 (permalink)
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How do preliminary estimates of snowfall compare with what we received in the March 1993 blizzard? In terms of its true meterological definition, not popular parlance, that is the only blizzard I have personally experienced. I was on campus then and, as best I recall, Knoxville received somewhere between 14 and 17 inches of snow. McGhee Tyson Airport reported 15.1 inches officially (Storm of the Century | WATE 6 News - Knoxville, Tennessee).
The day that hell froze over. The night before, Wade Houston's team miraculously beat KY at TB. Great game. It started snowing not too long after the game and didn't stop. I believe Wade may have sold his soul to the devil for that win, lol.
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Old 01-17-2013, 06:52 AM   #15 (permalink)
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Whats it look like for Chattanooga? I know that my truck already says 37 which is a few degrees colder than what they expected at this time. I've seen reports of 1-3 inches and no accum.
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