GLDunlap
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It looks like we may be ok here by Friday afternoon but Virginia, North and possibly South Carolina may be in a world of hurt until at least Saturday. Hopefully this will not affect any of our weekend visitors but I just pulled the following post off a Pro Met board posted at 12:55 AM Thursday
just looked at the progression of RAP model through hour 18. We're looking down the barrel of a very special event here. Look for your local forecasters and NWS offices to react soon, with more vigor. This is almost an unprecedented event, but March 2009 is the lastest we can find , I'm sure there are others. The upper low is taking shape now in western Mississippi and will close almost to 3 contours by Atlanta, taking on negative tilt. At first, the heavy rains, but the 850s' really crash in Alabama and Georgia, and this will spell a world of hurt when the moisture totally wraps around the 5H low, not to mention the 7H low. and 850. The track will absolutely cream eastern TN at first then spill quickly into western NC mountains and foothills by dark. The track of the 5H is probably mishandled by all models, as I've been saying for days. On the northwest side, you're looking at some convection and serious rates of snowfall. This will probably eclipse the 2009 event in parts of western NC and VA because this airmass is actually juicier than that one. Look at the water potential maps on this one, unbelievable. Turn that into snowfall in western NC and VA, eastern TN, and northeast GA and I think we could be looking at a really unprecedented event. Same goes for everywhere northwest of the upper low in northern Alabama, northern to central GA and then a nearly stationary band for Upstate SC to western NC for a while. The RATE of snowfall will be extreme, I can't express that enough.
just looked at the progression of RAP model through hour 18. We're looking down the barrel of a very special event here. Look for your local forecasters and NWS offices to react soon, with more vigor. This is almost an unprecedented event, but March 2009 is the lastest we can find , I'm sure there are others. The upper low is taking shape now in western Mississippi and will close almost to 3 contours by Atlanta, taking on negative tilt. At first, the heavy rains, but the 850s' really crash in Alabama and Georgia, and this will spell a world of hurt when the moisture totally wraps around the 5H low, not to mention the 7H low. and 850. The track will absolutely cream eastern TN at first then spill quickly into western NC mountains and foothills by dark. The track of the 5H is probably mishandled by all models, as I've been saying for days. On the northwest side, you're looking at some convection and serious rates of snowfall. This will probably eclipse the 2009 event in parts of western NC and VA because this airmass is actually juicier than that one. Look at the water potential maps on this one, unbelievable. Turn that into snowfall in western NC and VA, eastern TN, and northeast GA and I think we could be looking at a really unprecedented event. Same goes for everywhere northwest of the upper low in northern Alabama, northern to central GA and then a nearly stationary band for Upstate SC to western NC for a while. The RATE of snowfall will be extreme, I can't express that enough.
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