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Old 01-20-2012, 04:35 PM   #16
volfan_28
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Kansas State.. wow. Impressive.
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Old 01-20-2012, 05:01 PM   #17
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Do you guys think that recruiting classes are better reflected 3 or 4 years after recruiting?
Absolutely. That's what I tried to get at by aggregating the past four classes to see how well they predicted win/losses this year.

I would say there's a weak trend, but I wouldn't put money on it in Vegas.

At some point I want to actually get the various numbers for each service and run them against win/loss ratio. I have that for Scout. I think I can get that for Rivals. Maybe not enough data for ESPN or 24/7 (How long have they been around? Not since 2008 to combine all four years).

In theory, the best service should have the best correlation.

On the other hand you could do it on a player by player basis, but you'd have to winnow your sample down or it would take FOREVER to do.
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Old 01-20-2012, 05:22 PM   #18
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i was told there would be no math on this site...
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Old 01-20-2012, 05:31 PM   #19
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I need a tutor.
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Old 01-20-2012, 05:36 PM   #20
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would a graph be easier?
Or a movie
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Old 01-20-2012, 05:39 PM   #21
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Old 01-20-2012, 05:41 PM   #22
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Old 01-20-2012, 06:42 PM   #23
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I've never been what you would call a smart man. But that chart (not the dotted one) is horrible. It makes baby leon cry.
For those complaining about the format what would you rather the layout be?
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Old 01-20-2012, 11:42 PM   #24
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For those complaining about the format what would you rather the layout be?
Since you're trying to show the relationship between two ordinal variables, I'd try a scatterplot and give the NR value some kind of number so they're not omitted.

Keep crunchin' the numbers, dude. Interesting stuff...
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Old 01-21-2012, 12:09 AM   #25
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Is this going to be on the test?

Can we use notes?

I was under the impression there would be no math.
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Old 01-21-2012, 12:18 AM   #26
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Is this going to be on the test?

Can we use notes?

I was under the impression there would be no math.
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Old 01-21-2012, 12:27 AM   #27
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Since you're trying to show the relationship between two ordinal variables, I'd try a scatterplot and give the NR value some kind of number so they're not omitted.

Keep crunchin' the numbers, dude. Interesting stuff...
Thanks for the idea. I will work on it
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Old 01-21-2012, 09:46 AM   #28
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I did something similar, and posted it in a thread in the recruiting forum.



All the other stuff I did is here.
nice work
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Old 01-22-2012, 01:44 AM   #29
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I did something similar, and posted it in a thread in the recruiting forum.

All the other stuff I did is here.
I read through your analysis on your personal site, and I must say "Nice work RiotVol."

I think your editorial and number crunching really highlights the fact that using predictive analyses in sports is wrought with concomitant variables. I think the real trick is using some sort of principal component regression technique to find the impact variables, then post hoc evaluate the weight of each. Of course, you somewhat corrupt the p-value by doing the post hoc weighting, but blah, blah, blah . . . with your background you know where I'm going.

Bottom line - nice work, a truly insightful use of predicted versus residuals to capture the high and low expectations; and, your log-log transformation . . . well, nice "voodoo."
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Old 01-22-2012, 04:40 AM   #30
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i was told there would be no math on this site...
While funny, math is used to explain almost everything. If you can come up with some other concrete way to explain something better than a generic z = f(x,y) function then I would be one of the first to support.
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