ESPN FPI predicts Tennessee finish

#8
#8
Well, as it says, it's based heavily on last year's performance. Hence the 5-7 prediction. That's certainly possible but then again almost anything is possible in college football.
 
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#10
#10
The FPI is surprisingly good at predicting ball games. Something like 72%. Better than the AP and Coaches, better than Sagarin, better than Steele, better even than the closing lines at Vegas.

Still, that means they get about three games wrong, on average, in each school's 12-game regular season.

The three games closest to an even match-up, according to FPI, are against Mizzou, Kentucky, and West Virginia. If those are the three FPI gets wrong about the Vols, we'll end up 6-6 (beat WVa, lose to Ky, beat Mizzou).

But the Florida game isn't too far from center line, either. What if the FPI is wrong about it, rather than the Kentucky game? Then we're 8-4 (4-4 SEC), with wins over W Va, Florida, Kentucky, Mizzou, and Vandy, in addition to the three cupcakes.

Entirely possible. Wouldn't be thrilled about losing to USCe again, but coming at the end of the gauntlet, in CJP's first season and a major reset, it's understandable.

Yep, I could live with that.
 
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#11
#11
The FPI is surprisingly good at predicting ball games. Something like 72%. Better than the AP and Coaches, better than Sagarin, better than Steele, better even than the closing lines at Vegas.

Still, that means they get about three games wrong, on average, in each school's 12-game regular season.

The three games closest to an even match-up, according to FPI, are against Mizzou, Kentucky, and West Virginia. If those are the three FPI gets wrong about the Vols, we'll end up 6-6 (beat WVa, lose to Ky, beat Mizzou).

But the Florida game isn't too far from center line, either. What if the FPI is wrong about it, rather than the Kentucky game? Then we're 8-4 (4-4 SEC), with wins over W Va, Florida, Kentucky, Mizzou, and Vandy, in addition to the three cupcakes.

Entirely possible. Wouldn't be thrilled about losing to USCe again, but coming at the end of the gauntlet, in CJP's first season and a major reset, it's understandable.

Yep, I could live with that.


If they get 3 games wrong on average then we could just as easily be 2-10
 
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#13
#13
If they get 3 games wrong on average then we could just as easily be 2-10

Actually, that's not right. Because three of the wins are predicted at the 95%+ confidence level (the three cupcakes). We're not getting any outcome below 3-9.

Meanwhile, a different three of the games, three losses, are predicted at the 88%+ confidence level (UGa, Auburn, Bama). We're not winning those any more than we're losing the three cupcake games.

So, taking ALL elements of the FPI's predictive powers into account, we're likely going to end up somewhere between 3-9 and 8-4 (or 9-3, if you want to push for every bit of the 3.36 games/season error rate of the FPI).

And isn't "anything between 3-9 and 9-3" exactly what some of us have been saying for months? Didn't take FPI to know that.

But most probably, we'll end up between the FPI's 5-7 prediction, and 8-4. Best bets are 6-6 or 7-5, I'd say, but that's just because Bell curve. :)
 
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#15
#15
No, because he's 33-39 in the SEC.

But we gone see.


33-39 in Starkville playing in the toughest division in college football with every financial and recruiting advantage on the side of your rivals you play every year is near awesome.
 
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#16
#16
Tell you what I will do with your negative attitude. I will bet you $100 and give you 5 to one odds Tennessee wins more than 2 games this year. Put up ..

:loco:


I didn’t say they’d only win 2 games, only that according to the formula Espn is using, its mathematically possible.

Your wager of $100 is admirable though, I can tell you gamble with the big boys
 
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#17
#17
No, because he's 33-39 in the SEC.

But we gone see.

33-39 is nearly a 150 basis point improvement over MS State's all-time SEC record. That fact that he did that while playing in a division with a dominant Bama, Auburn (2 national title games), LSU (National title games), Ole Miss (best teams they've had in nearly 50 years), A&M and some of their best seasons in 40-50 years, and the Petrino coached Arky teams. This guy took Ms State to a BCS Bowl and had MSU #1 in the country once. He did that while inheriting Croom's mess. The guy can coach.

With all that being said, UF ain't winning 9 regular season games this year....
 
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#18
#18
He has a 69-46 record which = a .600 average over nine year at Ms. state . He better pull out a better average than that at Florida or they will cut him loose and I don’t think he will have 9 years to do it in either maybe half that if he’s lucky . He’s in a tougher spot now then he was on the other side . He has to win the SEC EAST or be within a game of winning it to keep his job , he didn’t have those expectations at State .
 
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#19
#19
How upset would you be if things came out exactly as FPI predicts....5-7? I certainly hope for better, but in CJP's first year, I would take it. Win all the ones you should, hopefully we don't get blown out in any of the others. That would be a huge improvement.

My best guess is 6-6. I think we get WVU in the opener. We'd probably have a better chance if someone made Grier pee in a cup about now....dopers rarely quit doping.
 
#21
#21
Actually, that's not right. Because three of the wins are predicted at the 95%+ confidence level (the three cupcakes). We're not getting any outcome below 3-9.

Meanwhile, a different three of the games, three losses, are predicted at the 88%+ confidence level (UGa, Auburn, Bama). We're not winning those any more than we're losing the three cupcake games.

So, taking ALL elements of the FPI's predictive powers into account, we're likely going to end up somewhere between 3-9 and 8-4 (or 9-3, if you want to push for every bit of the 3.36 games/season error rate of the FPI).

And isn't "anything between 3-9 and 9-3" exactly what some of us have been saying for months? Didn't take FPI to know that.

But most probably, we'll end up between the FPI's 5-7 prediction, and 8-4. Best bets are 6-6 or 7-5, I'd say, but that's just because Bell curve. :)

I remember Appy State. Nothing is a given, even the cupcakes as you call them. Without Hurd falling on a fumble in the endzone, we lose that game.
 
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#23
#23
I'm of the opinion that we outperform most predictions in Pruitt's first season. There is talent on this team. They were just poorly coached. I think we see what real coaches can do with them. I don't think we will be world beaters this year, but I think we beat a couple teams we aren't supposed to. I'm predicting 7-5. I'm an optimist though so TIFWIW.
 
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#24
#24
So basically 1 game better than last season with a potentially better coach? Minimum 6-6. I am saying we go 8-4 because Pruitt said he didn’t come to Tennessee to just win 6 games a year. We will split Florida/ WV but if we could go 4-0 and beat SC and swing games with WV, Florida and Missouri we could go 9-3 loses to Bama, UGA and Auburn. I don’t see us getting beat by Vandy or UK for a long time having a competent coach and don’t see Pruitt all the sudden sh!t the bed.
 
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