Getting the full potential out of players

[HooahVol]

A recurring theme here on multiple threads is we actually have talented players they have just never reached their potential under the previous staff due to (insert your reason here).

Part of me thinks this may be wishful thinking. My gut says Butch recruited to get the best class rating possible but left parts of our team woefully under recruited and bare. That being said I was able to find our average star ratings thanks to this excellent report here: How talented and experienced is Tennessee in ’18? A numbers look with analysis. | WNML-AF

Because star ratings matter to many, Ive included the highest star rating in any service and the average of all the major services calculated by 247Sports. I think the average is the best reference, but the highest is often the fan go-to, so thats there also for your use as you wish.

Tennessee Team Scholarship Numbers (80)
*Current (does not include Jennings or two blue shirts)
QBs = 3
RBs = 5
WRs = 11
TEs = 6
OLs = 13
DLs = 18
LBs = 10
DBs = 11
Spec = 3

Tennessee Team Scholarship Players By Class (80)
RS Sr 5
Sr 4
RS Jr 7
Jr 9
RS So 8
So 19
RS Fr 8
Fr 20
*47-of-80 (59%) are 1st or 2nd year players

Returning Team Scholarship Players (60)
Total Games Played = 826
Total Starts = 219
*28-of-58 Never Started (48%)
{two special teamers not counted as starters}

Players Departed From Last Season (25)
Total Games Played = 866
Total Starts = 391
*8 departed players had 20+ career starts

List of Departed Players From 2017 (25) Games Played/Starts
LB Elliott Berry (34/5)
S/RS Evan Berry (38/3)
P Trevor Daniel (38/0)
WR Jeff George (20/3)
TE Jakob Johnson (47/5)
LB Colton Jumper (39/17)
OL Brett Kendrick (42/29)
CB Justin Martin (36/18)
LB Cortez McDowell (41/7)
PK Aaron Medley (49/0)
CB Emmanuel Moseley (51/30)
OL Jashon Robertson (46/45)
WR Josh Smith (45/23)
OL Coleman Thomas (41/32)
DT Kendal Vickers (43/38)
CB Shaq Wiggins (43/22)
TE Ethan Wolf (50/47)
WR Logan Fetzner (4/0) (walk-on)
OL Jack Jones (23/9) *career ended – medical
OL Venzel Boulware (10/4) *left team during 2017 season
WR Jauan Jennings (26/15) *kicked off the team (could return)
RB John Kelly (33/12) *early NFL Draft entry
DB RaShaan Gaulden (36/18) *early NFL Draft entry
DT Kahlil McKenzie (31/9) *early NFL Draft entry
QB Quinten Dormady (17/5) *transferring

Multi-Year Scholarship Players That Have Never Started (6)
WR Tyler Byrd (4-star) 24 games played
WR DJ Henderson (3-star) 11 games played
DT Quay Picou (3-star) 20 games played
DT Alexis Johnson (4-star) 12 games played
LB Dillon Bates (4-star) 40 games played
CB Marquill Osborne (4-star) 20 games played

Highest Star Ratings Among UT Players (80 scholarship players)
5* 5
4* 42
3* 31
2* 2
*47-of-80 (59%) have a 4 or 5-star rating in at least one service

Average Star Ratings Among UT Players (80 scholarship players)
5 * 2
4* 30
3* 46
2* 2
*48-of-80 (60%) have an average star rating of 3-star or less


So more or less we average somewhere between 3 and 4 stars. The only other thing to consider is what Smart is doing at UGA with a similar background to Pruitt and he killed it last year with some of his 3* guys. Deandre Baker, for example, was a 3* recruit at UGA who returns as the SEC's leader in lowest catch rate allowed on targets into his coverage last season. The kid is now a baller under the Smart/Saban system.

Anyway, I know I have regurgitated a bunch of stuff on this thread and I apologize but by breaking it all down it has made me feel better about next season. Not SEC East champs better but 6 or 7 wins better.

 

[Jack Burton]

Where does that stack up with opponents on our schedule? Would be interesting to see but also requires a lot of time to put together.

 

[HooahVol]

Yeah, it would take me awhile to figure it out. The only think I can say with any certainty is we are pretty far behind Bama who has averaged #1 recruiting classes for years now and are rapidly losing ground to the Dawgs who have started recruiting like banshees. I would have to imagine we are above the bottom dwellers like UK and Vandy and probably pretty close to Scar and Florida.

 

[Envolronment]

I know if I were a four or five star player out of high school and a new regime was in town, I would want to make the most out of it with a clean slate. Surely Alabama's former Player Development coach can take 47 four and five star players and find a first and second string that can win more than four games this season. Clean Slate, I hope these guys take advantage of it.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

It's a mixture of the following:

1. Lack of development (technique, S&C, etc.)
2. Some overrated legacies (Legacies are more likely to be 2nd or more generation college students who have more access to camps; therefore, higher star ratings)
3. Bad luck
4. Realization that there's a difference between stars. Not all 5 stars are the same. There's a wide range between the highest rated 4 * and the lowest rated 4* (and the same with 3* as well. The highest 3* can play SEC ball; the lowest 3* is an AAC player). Again, we rarely won battles against Bama, UF, UGA, Auburn for elite players that weren't legacies or in-state kids.

 

[Nocleats]

Isnt every coach in the country tasked with getting the most of each players potential?

 

[RollerVol]

dang Hawk...elaborate much......ijk...serious breakdown...gotta have star players, but gotta have star coaching, even more...we may have it now...:salute:

GO BIG ORANGE!

 

[AndyMizunogolfer]

Isnt every coach in the country tasked with getting the most of each players potential?

I never felt that CBJ did that.

 

[HooahVol]

dang Hawk...elaborate much......ijk...serious breakdown...gotta have star players, but gotta have star coaching, even more...we may have it now...:salute:

GO BIG ORANGE!

LOL. I am a nerd and love statistics. It is just who I am. For example let me blow your mind with this simple statistic: Mark Richt is the longest tenured Div 1 coach in the state of Florida.

 

[savannahfan]

Where does that stack up with opponents on our schedule? Would be interesting to see but also requires a lot of time to put together.

TIME!!!! Hell, this guy has nothing but time. wonder if he even stopped to eat while working on this "world of important info". Not to belittle the effort, but it doesn't take rocket science to know this bunch of players has under achieved. No "player" could preform this poorly in high school and ever make a major college program.

 

[SaintLouisVol]

Assuming players are fairly rated out of HS, their HS "talent" doesn't necessarily equate to D1 college "talent." "Talent" is an illusive word. It doesn't mean great deal. 95 percent of players in HS that are considered "talented," that is they have the athleticism and instincts to be very, very good HS players, are not good enough to just roll out of bed and compete in the SEC. They still need more size, strength and technique to be competitive.

For the third and fourth year guys who played in the CBJ era, there's no way to make up for the 3-4 years of quality S&C training in six months. If it is true that the S&C system under CBJ was a weak link, they are victim to it to some degree.

The same goes for other development and technique. You can't break them and completely rebuild them in one spring and one fall camp.

 

[Biopsyman]

A recurring theme here on multiple threads is we actually have talented players they have just never reached their potential under the previous staff due to (insert your reason here).

Part of me thinks this may be wishful thinking. My gut says Butch recruited to get the best class rating possible but left parts of our team woefully under recruited and bare. That being said I was able to find our average star ratings thanks to this excellent report here: How talented and experienced is Tennessee in ’18? A numbers look with analysis. | WNML-AF

Because star ratings matter to many, Ive included the highest star rating in any service and the average of all the major services calculated by 247Sports. I think the average is the best reference, but the highest is often the fan go-to, so thats there also for your use as you wish.

Tennessee Team Scholarship Numbers (80)
*Current (does not include Jennings or two blue shirts)
QBs = 3
RBs = 5
WRs = 11
TEs = 6
OLs = 13
DLs = 18
LBs = 10
DBs = 11
Spec = 3

Tennessee Team Scholarship Players By Class (80)
RS Sr 5
Sr 4
RS Jr 7
Jr 9
RS So 8
So 19
RS Fr 8
Fr 20
*47-of-80 (59%) are 1st or 2nd year players

Returning Team Scholarship Players (60)
Total Games Played = 826
Total Starts = 219
*28-of-58 Never Started (48%)
{two special teamers not counted as starters}

Players Departed From Last Season (25)
Total Games Played = 866
Total Starts = 391
*8 departed players had 20+ career starts

List of Departed Players From 2017 (25) Games Played/Starts
LB Elliott Berry (34/5)
S/RS Evan Berry (38/3)
P Trevor Daniel (38/0)
WR Jeff George (20/3)
TE Jakob Johnson (47/5)
LB Colton Jumper (39/17)
OL Brett Kendrick (42/29)
CB Justin Martin (36/18)
LB Cortez McDowell (41/7)
PK Aaron Medley (49/0)
CB Emmanuel Moseley (51/30)
OL Jashon Robertson (46/45)
WR Josh Smith (45/23)
OL Coleman Thomas (41/32)
DT Kendal Vickers (43/38)
CB Shaq Wiggins (43/22)
TE Ethan Wolf (50/47)
WR Logan Fetzner (4/0) (walk-on)
OL Jack Jones (23/9) *career ended – medical
OL Venzel Boulware (10/4) *left team during 2017 season
WR Jauan Jennings (26/15) *kicked off the team (could return)
RB John Kelly (33/12) *early NFL Draft entry
DB RaShaan Gaulden (36/18) *early NFL Draft entry
DT Kahlil McKenzie (31/9) *early NFL Draft entry
QB Quinten Dormady (17/5) *transferring

Multi-Year Scholarship Players That Have Never Started (6)
WR Tyler Byrd (4-star) 24 games played
WR DJ Henderson (3-star) 11 games played
DT Quay Picou (3-star) 20 games played
DT Alexis Johnson (4-star) 12 games played
LB Dillon Bates (4-star) 40 games played
CB Marquill Osborne (4-star) 20 games played

Highest Star Ratings Among UT Players (80 scholarship players)
5* 5
4* 42
3* 31
2* 2
*47-of-80 (59%) have a 4 or 5-star rating in at least one service

Average Star Ratings Among UT Players (80 scholarship players)
5 * 2
4* 30
3* 46
2* 2
*48-of-80 (60%) have an average star rating of 3-star or less


So more or less we average somewhere between 3 and 4 stars. The only other thing to consider is what Smart is doing at UGA with a similar background to Pruitt and he killed it last year with some of his 3* guys. Deandre Baker, for example, was a 3* recruit at UGA who returns as the SEC's leader in lowest catch rate allowed on targets into his coverage last season. The kid is now a baller under the Smart/Saban system.

Anyway, I know I have regurgitated a bunch of stuff on this thread and I apologize but by breaking it all down it has made me feel better about next season. Not SEC East champs better but 6 or 7 wins better.

Somewhere around 50% Of recruits in each class are career back ups.. the key is to hit all the other 50% which we have not... Some do not have God-given ability to be a difference maker, we need those type of players

 

[Biopsyman]

I think I love it also goes back to not development but of identication of talent we have recruited a lot of bust on both sides of the ball

 

[AndyMizunogolfer]

I think I love it also goes back to not development but of identication of talent we have recruited a lot of bust on both sides of the ball

Hard to say if it was coaching or actual busts. Some probably should have been made to change positions but our previous staff wouldn't do that in fear of upsetting the kid.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

<detailed original post>

Really nice work, Hawkeye, thanks for it.

You began the OP with the comment that parts of our team may be badly under-recruited, and bare as a result.

After going through all that data, did you reach any conclusions specifically about that?

Just glancing at your work, the Offensive Line leaps out to me. 13 scholarship players seems short-handed. Could have taken a scholarship or two from the Tight Ends and one or two position groups on the defense to bulk the OL up some more.

Did you find that? Or any other places of specific concern?

 

[HooahVol]

but our previous staff wouldn't do that in fear of upsetting the kid.

I completely agree with this. Let's be honest, Saban can be kind of an A-hole. We see it in his interactions with the media at times. It is painfully obvious he is a no nonsense type guy who knows he is right and you either do it his way or the highway. Butch on the other hand seemed like a real affable guy. He liked for people to like him and really wanted to be the players buddy. He let them pick the music to play at practice, take time off if needed, etc. Looking at these two coaches SEC records I think it is obvious which approach works.

 

[HooahVol]

Really nice work, Hawkeye, thanks for it.

You began the OP with the comment that parts of our team may be badly under-recruited, and bare as a result.

After going through all that data, did you reach any conclusions specifically about that?

Just glancing at your work, the Offensive Line leaps out to me. 13 scholarship players seems short-handed. Could have taken a scholarship or two from the Tight Ends and one or two position groups on the defense to bulk the OL up some more.

Did you find that? Or any other places of specific concern?

I don't want to take credit for all the work. I linked the source to where I found it. I do think it is possible he robbed Peter to pay Paul mainly due to injuries. The one thing I have to admit is Butch was cursed with injuries. More than most it seemed. Maybe it was poor strength and conditioning or maybe Butch kicked a black cat under a ladder but we never really saw the full potential of one of Butch's teams as most of them were on the sideline.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I don't want to take credit for all the work. I linked the source to where I found it. I do think it is possible he robbed Peter to pay Paul mainly due to injuries. The one thing I have to admit is Butch was cursed with injuries. More than most it seemed. Maybe it was poor strength and conditioning or maybe Butch kicked a black cat under a ladder but we never really saw the full potential of one of Butch's teams as most of them were on the sideline.

So...

I mean, you said this:

My gut says Butch recruited to get the best class rating possible but left parts of our team woefully under recruited and bare.

And then you took the time to do the data analysis, to see if your gut was right.

Just asking what conclusions you reached on your original premise, if any. Other than, "uncommon number of injuries."

 

[Biopsyman]

Hard to say if it was coaching or actual busts. Some probably should have been made to change positions but our previous staff wouldn't do that in fear of upsetting the kid.

The only thing I can go by is what I see on the field..we recruited a lot of guys who simply were not that good..

 

[VFL-82-JP]

The only thing I can go by is what I see on the field..we recruited a lot of guys who simply were not that good..

That's the whole question of this thread, though, right?

Are we as talent-poor as last season seems to indicate? Or was that a fluke of bad coaching, bad development, and bad breaks? Can this crop of players be significantly better than that, I mean significantly better, with good coaching?

Is what we saw all we have? Or is there more that just didn't show itself?

That's this thread, right?

 

[HooahVol]

That's the whole question of this thread, though, right?

Are we as talent-poor as last season seems to indicate? Or was that a fluke of bad coaching, bad development, and bad breaks? Can this crop of players be significantly better than that, I mean significantly better, with good coaching?

Is what we saw all we have? Or is there more that just didn't show itself?

That's this thread, right?

That is the point for sure. Sorry about the confusion above as well. Honestly, the numbers do show we have some decent players at most positions. Or at least decent based on their star ratings. So it does kind of disprove my original assumption.

 

[Biopsyman]

That's the whole question of this thread, though, right?

Are we as talent-poor as last season seems to indicate? Or was that a fluke of bad coaching, bad development, and bad breaks? Can this crop of players be significantly better than that, I mean significantly better, with good coaching?

Is what we saw all we have? Or is there more that just didn't show itself?

That's this thread, right?

The core players currently on the roster no.. some are good and very few are elite .. most are average

 

[SupremeVol]

It's a mixture of the following:

1. Lack of development (technique, S&C, etc.)
2. Some overrated legacies (Legacies are more likely to be 2nd or more generation college students who have more access to camps; therefore, higher star ratings)
3. Bad luck
4. Realization that there's a difference between stars. Not all 5 stars are the same. There's a wide range between the highest rated 4 * and the lowest rated 4* (and the same with 3* as well. The highest 3* can play SEC ball; the lowest 3* is an AAC player). Again, we rarely won battles against Bama, UF, UGA, Auburn for elite players that weren't legacies or in-state kids.

Recruiting is a funny thing. In most cases those stars equal nothing when they get on the field in college. WE have a lotta guys that have had bad luck. But in my opinion player development is huge. Coaching and developing is key. There is no excuse for things like missed tackles or bad angles on tackles.Every year, every game thats all i see. Name a team or player under Fulmer that missed tackles. Those were our gold standard teams. All out effort. Players developed and improvement every year. I miss those teams. We need to get back to that. Hard nosed football. No pretty gimmicks. Smash mouth.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

That is the point for sure. Sorry about the confusion above as well. Honestly, the numbers do show we have some decent players at most positions. Or at least decent based on their star ratings. So it does kind of disprove my original assumption.

Thanks again for the work you put into this. It's nice to see some good football study in the forum. :good!:

 

[Biopsyman]

Recruiting is a funny thing. In most cases those stars equal nothing when they get on the field in college. WE have a lotta guys that have had bad luck. But in my opinion player development is huge. Coaching and developing is key. There is no excuse for things like missed tackles or bad angles on tackles.Every year, every game thats all i see. Name a team or player under Fulmer that missed tackles. Those were our gold standard teams. All out effort. Players developed and improvement every year. I miss those teams. We need to get back to that. Hard nosed football. No pretty gimmicks. Smash mouth.

Jones unloading the backfield and in shotgun on 1st and goal from the 1 was an all time stupid