DiderotsGhost
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Update: Butch is gone; I've made a few updates and additions to the list.
We dont know when it will happen, but its nearly inevitable that Butch Jones will be gone by the end of the season. With the damage done to recruiting and a near zero chance that we could hire a top-notch offensive staff in the offseason, the odds of turning it around for Butch are near zero. Unfortunately, firing Butch will be the easy part. Finding a suitable replacement is going to be a much more difficult task. Here are my thoughts and my list.
The Landscape
There are no home run hires. Everyone wants the home run hire, but the unfortunate truth of the matter is that there are no candidates that are sure-fire successes here. There are some great and very promising candidates, but no home runs.
Its a tricky business. Pete Carroll was maybe the 4th or 5th choice at USC; many USC fans hated the hire; Carroll turned out to be one of the most successful college coaches of all-time. Dabo Swinney was picked at Clemson after what was basically a failed search. Fans were disappointed. Swinney is now considered to be one of the 5 most successful coaches in the game (really only behind Saban and Meyer right now). Meanwhile, plenty of moves that were considered great hires were giant duds. Jim Mora at UCLA was considered a home run and he had early success, but hasnt been able to sustain it. Rich Rod at Michigan was considered close to a home run and that experiment was ended after 3 years. (Let's also not forget that Nick Saban was Bama's 2nd choice.) Charlie Strong was considered one of most promising coaches out there and failed at Texas. Finding a great coach is a trickier business than most realize.
Job is more attractive than in 2010 and 2012. We have talent. The recruiting landscape in Tennessee continues to get better every year. The next coach will have some issues to correct, but he will not inherit the absolute trainwreck Butch did or the dismal situation Dooley walked into. This is the most attractive the Tennessee job has been since 2008 when we inexplicably handed the keys to Kiffin.
Beating Saban is a major challenge. Contrary to popular perception, the SEC is filled with very good coaches. Its just that the good coaches (Malzahn, Sumlin, McElwain, Mullen) have mostly beat each other up and none of them have been able to compete with the Nick Saban juggernaut. To make matters worse, it appears that Kirby Smart is now creating Alabama Junior at Georgia. There are plenty of good coaches out there; its going to take a great coach to win against Saban and Smart. And there simply arent a lot of great coaches out there.
Tennessee has major resources. The value that football brings to UT is immense. The university could afford to shell out $10 million annually for the right coach. But its also not a wise idea to just go throwing around money willy-nilly as we have seen that locking up coaches for huge contracts tends not to work out well when those coaches underperform significantly.
The donor problem. As we all know, a certain donor appears to have heavy influence over the process. It doesn't mean we can't get a top coach; it just means that unfortunately, we're at the mercy of some individuals.
Coaching matters. I've read a few articles claiming that Tennessee isn't what it used to be. I'd strongly disagree. If anything, the Tennessee job is much more attractive now than it was 5, 10, or 30 years ago. Recruiting in Tennessee is very good and UT has a major advantage in that regard. We're close to Atlanta, one of the biggest markets for football talent in the nation. We have some of the best facilities in the nation and strong fan support. Our only real problem over the past decade has been coaching. We're not the only program that has suffered from bad or mediocre coaching; Miami had a decade of futility as well and Miami has one of the biggest recruiting advantages in college football. Alabama went through a bad decade after Gene Stallings resigned in 1996. People said the same crap about Alabama in 2006 as they say about Tennessee in 2017. There's no reason Tennessee can't be a top 10 program; it all comes down to coaching.
The Candidates
Here are some of the candidates, ranked by my preference. Im sure Im missing some.
Dream Hires
1. Justin Fuente. Long shot IMO. Gary Patterson protégé. Turned a terrible Memphis team into a legit top 25 team. Turned VT around in 1 year and is looking even better in Year #2 in spite of losing some major talent. Dont think hes leaving VT. Fuente took the VT job because of his strong relationship with AD Whit Babcock. He has a top 5 Defensive Coordinator in Bud Foster, who is probably staying at VT for life. Expectations are lower. Path to conference title and playoff much easier in ACC than in the SEC. Already makes $3.2 million; while we could outbid VT, I suspect its more likely that hed get a nice raise and stay at VT. Closest thing to a home run hire IMO if we got him, but its very unlikely.
2. Gary Patterson. Also a long-shot. Wouldve been a great hire back in 2008. Hes 57 now. Would he really want to start over? Hes taken TCU to heights never anticipated, but he has had a few down years recently (2013 and 2016). Nevertheless, undoubtedly one of the best coaches in the game.
Top Tier
1. Scott Frost. Excellent coach. Helfrichs OC at Oregon the 3 good years. Crushing it at UCF this year. Out of the up-and-comers, the closest thing to a home run hire IMO. Only problem is that theres a big risk with Nebraskas situation. Very good possibility that job comes open with a year or two. Frost might bolt for Nebraska. For that matter, its completely plausible that Nebraska fires Mike Riley this season to make a run at Frost. Even if we offer Frost twice as much as Nebraska, he still might pick his alma mater. It sucks, but I just dont see us getting him.
2. Dan Mullen. Hes done more with less at Miss State. 7 consecutive bowl games (including an Orange Bowl appearance) at the toughest job in the SEC. Won 2 national titles as OC at Florida and molded Alex Smith into a top NFL prospect at Utah. Has routinely coached up QBs, including Dak Prescott and his current QB, Nick Fitzgerald. Biggest issue with getting Mullen is that he already makes $4.5 million, which is about the same as Butch. How much more do you have to pay him to come to Knoxville? Is it worth the risk? Its not easy to recruit to Starkville. Hed get better players in Knoxville and have a chance for a national title. The case against Mullen is mostly that hes struggled against the top 20. However, hes never been close in talent to programs like Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M. With better resources, Mullen could attract better talent, and conceivably compete for a national title at Tennessee.
3. Brent Venables. One of the best DCs in the nation. Hes a major reason behind Clemsons recent success. His resume is basically a dream in terms of mentors: Bill Snyder, Bob Stoops, Dabo Swinney. He was DC for two different national championship teams. Even though hes a defensive guy, he has a lot of connections, so its reasonable to believe he could fix the offense as well. The downsides are that he has no head coaching experience and the overall track record of Fiery DCs with success coaching defense as head coaches isnt necessarily great (e.g. Muschamp, Rex Ryan); but it does appear to be working for Georgia right now with Kirby Smart.
4. P.J. Fleck. May or may not be realistic given that he's only been at Minnesota for less than a season. I don't have a strong opinion on Fleck (never watched a game that he's coached), but difficult to deny he has a great track record and is very young at age 36. He's also a former NFL Wide Receiver, which is great, because Wide Receiver is the position that is in greatest need of "fixing" at UT. His buyout appears rather manageable. Biggest question mark: can he recruit the South? He's been a Midwestern guy for his entire coaching career.
5. Joe Moorhead. Very underrated. Not a well-known name, but he's been the OC at Penn State the past two seasons. Penn States offense took off after he took over and hes put up high point totals against some very good defenses. Also a former Head Coach at Fordham, who took over a 1-10 team and turned them into a playoff team within 2 seasons; made the FCS playoffs his last 3 seasons. Hes the anti-Butch; he took over a Fordham program with few resources and major disadvantages and had to innovate his way to success. Moorhead could be a Jim Tressel diamond in the rough type that people are ignoring largely because a good chunk of his career was spent in FCS. Right now, Id consider Moorhead to be one of the best out of the realistic candidates. Biggest question mark might be recruiting given that hes only been at a big time program (Penn State) for two years.
Second Tier
1. Jeff Brohm. On one hand, Brohms record is really not that different from Butch Jones before he got here. On the other hand, Brohm is actually one of the most well-respected offensive minds in the game. Hes basically Bobby Petrino w/o the baggage of Bobby Petrino. Hes known as an excellent QB coach and we desperately need that. Though, we really have no idea how hed do with recruiting or anything like that. Some have concerns that hed bolt for Louisville (his alma mater) if the job came open, but if he took the Tennessee job, I suspect he has ambitions to win a national title and he realizes that Tennessee is a better place for that than Louisville.
2. Chip Kelly. Bordeline between 1st and 2nd tier for me. Very impressive record at Oregon (46-7) with 4 BCS bowl appearances. On paper, he looks like a dream candidate. In reality, Im very skeptical that he can achieve those results again. Biggest problem is that NFL defenses figured him out within a few years to the point that the defenses were literally calling out the plays before they happened. His last year in Philly and San Fran were disasters. Kellys gimmick was the Hurry-Up No-Huddle offense, but this offense requires simplification, and defenses have increasingly adapted to it. Its easy to say guys like Saban, Spurrier, and Petrino went to the NFL, failed and then went back to college to major success, and assume that applies to Kelly as well. But Saban is a master recruiter and organization guy (whereas Kelly dislikes recruiting), and Kelly hasnt shown the same ability to adapt his offense that Spurrier and Petrino have. I question whether hed fit in Knoxville and could see him failing in the same way that RichRod did in Ann Arbor. Not saying he couldnt change his offense and have huge success; I just see him as a much bigger risk than most. If we could get him on the cheap for $3 million, Id elevate him to first tier and say we should consider the risk. However, were probably going to have to pay him $6 million plus to lure him here and then he could flop big-time and were stuck in a worse situation than we were before. I just see him as too big of a risk given his likely salary demands.
3. Tee Martin. Great recruiter. Good OC. Could be a pretty good hire, but hes never been a head coach before, and Tennessee isnt exactly the easiest job to start with. I wouldnt quite put him on the level as Venables in terms of success, but hes been pretty good. Hed be a gamble, but a reasonable one IMO if no top-tier candidate pans out. Also, for those clamoring for Lane Kiffin (a terrible idea), Martin basically brings a Lane Kiffin style offense without Lane Kiffin style baggage and immaturity. The other big benefit with Martin; hes a Wide Receiver and Quarterback coach and those are our two biggest problem areas right now.
4. Matt Campbell. Iowa State coach that is making some noise in only his 2nd season. Iowa State is arguably one of the toughest jobs in the Big 12 and Campbell is doing very well. Big upset win over a top 5 Oklahoma team on the road. 5-2 record this year, also with a win over Texas Tech. Very good track record at Toledo before I State.
5. Chad Morris. Very accomplished as the former OC at Clemson under Dabo Swinney. He's slowly been rebuilding at SMU where he took over a 1-11 program. He's yet to turn the corner at SMU, but he has them competitive again at 6-4 with close games versus UCF and Navy. Morris could be a very good hire, but tough to evaluate him based on the mess he took over at SMU.
6. Mike Norvell. Great offensive mind. Limited track record. Hes been successful in his 2 years at Memphis, but Justin Fuente built the program up before he got there. Nevertheless, his offenses have been very impressive. Hed be an upgrade over Butch Jones on the offensive end, at the very least. While Id rather have one of the names above him on this list, I wouldnt be disappointed with Norvell.
Third Tier
1. Charlie Strong. Tough to figure him out. Had great success at Louisville. Bombed at Texas. Doing very well with Willie Taggarts players at USF. Hes a good coach and DC; just tough to explain why he fared so poorly at Texas, but has done well literally everywhere else hes been.
2. Dave Doeren. Like Charlie Strong, tough to figure out. He's a good coach, but not clear if he can be a "great coach." Very impressively led Northern Illinois to the Orange Bowl back in 2012. He's had flashes of brilliance at NC State, but has never truly broken through. 8-5, 7-6, and 7-6 his past three seasons, with a few near-wins against power programs. Doeren is 7-3 this season with a win over Louisville and Florida State. he came close, once again, versus Clemson. Has struggled at times with recruiting, but his recruiting seems to improve with wins. I don't know if he would succeed in Knoxville or not; my gut says he's the type of guy who gets you to bowl games and 8- and 9- win seasons regularly and every now and then, gives you a 10-3 season. Not a terrible hire, but also not clear if he's the guy that can beat Nick Saban and win the SEC.
3. Lane Kiffin. Every fiber of my being hates considering this, but there's a legitimate case for Lane Kiffin as "G5 Coach of the Year." He's taken a Florida Atlantic program that was last in Conference USA and has moved them up to first place in a single season. The 2017 Lane Kiffin is worlds better than the 2008 Lane Kiffin. Difficult to see how he could come back to UT, however, after the train wreck he left behind.
4. Bo Pelini. Underrated as a coach. 67-27 at Nebraska in spite of never being able to get top-tier talent. Had Youngstown State in the FCS Championship Game within 2 years, but seems to have taken a step back this year. Pelini would likely deliver solid results, but he's not a top-notch recruiter and I suspect he's a guy that can consistently get you to mid-tier bowl games and an occasionally top-tier bowl, but who doesn't really have us competing for the SEC.
5. D.J. Durkin. Add another one into the "difficult to evaluate" category. There is a good case for Durkin; successful DC under Will Muschamp; also a position coach under Harbaugh at Stanford; he was also DC at Michigan for Harbaugh's first season. Problem is that it's very difficult to evaluate his performance as Head Coach given that he's at Maryland and he's basically in a division with 4 monsters right now (Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State). There are some very good coaches who would look like crap in that situation. Did a reasonable job last year and he's won a few that he wasn't supposed to. Not clear to me that he'd be a great coach in Knoxville, though.
6. Scott Satterfield. If Im being honest, I really dont know much about Scott Satterfield other than that hes had a reasonable amount of success coaching Appalachian State. He was 11-2 in 2015 and 10-3 last season. So hes a good coach. Im not sure if his App State success would translate to Tennessee.
7. Bob Shoop. Not the inspiring choice that UT fans want, but potentially not a bad option if we cant land a top-tier coach. Shoops defense played extremely well in early 2015 before injuries decimated the team. This season, his defense has improved with every game. However, the most promising thing about Shoop is that he actually understands hiring and firing. Went out and got Brady Hoke and Charleton Warren in the offseason and likely advocated for replacing Willie Martinez. Weve seen major improvement in the pass defense this season as a result. Shoop could probably be hired on the cheap, meaning if he didnt work out, we could buy him out for much less than other candidates. At the same time, if he could recruit a top-notch OC and staff to Knoxville (as he did Hoke and Charleton Warren), it might not be difficult to turn this ship around.
8. Jim Bob Cooter. Probably not realistic. I get the sense that Cooter is more interested in an NFL opening than college. Also, while hes a great offensive mind, hed be a high-risk hire. He has little experience coaching the college game, no real experience recruiting, and might have personal baggage that make him reluctant to be under the microscope in Knoxville. That said, difficult to deny that hes a very promising coach.
9. Mike MacIntyre. Very good coach. Disciple of David Cutcliffe. However, MacIntyres inability to recruit concerns me a lot. The SEC is a tough conference and coaching em up only goes so far when you have to compete against the Nick Saban juggernaut. Also, has not exactly been scandal-free in Boulder.
10. Paul Chryst. Stop me if you've heard this one before: Wisconsin coach decides to leave program he's having major success at for "greener pastures" (i.e. places w/ less control by Barry Alvarez); coach flops at his new job. So far as I can tell, the common denominator with Wisconsin's success is Barry Alvarez, not the head coach. It's weird, but how else do you explain the fact that it keeps happening? Worth noting that Chryst didn't exactly light it up at Pitt before he went to Wisconsin.
11. Bobby Petrino. Its not only Petrinos scandal-plague past that bothers me. Its the fact that hes left almost every place hes been in crap-shape when hes departed. Hes not a program builder. Hes a guy who knows Xs and Os and overachieves while hes there, but doesnt really care bout the long-term success of the program. Do we really want that? Id much rather take Jeff Brohm than Petrino, as Brohm is basically Petrino without the baggage.
We Shouldnt Even Consider
1. Les Miles. Why are people so enamored with Les Miles? Hes a good recruiter who hasnt had a legit offense in years and who makes questionable in-game decisions. How does that differ from what we have right now with Butch Jones? LSU is the best job in the nation in terms of talent available. If Miles couldnt succeed with an absolutely loaded LSU roster over the past several years, why would he succeed at Tennessee? Miles would be an absolutely atrocious hire. Ole Miss (which isnt going to have a lot of good options) should go after him; theres absolutely no reason for us to go down that route.
2. Mike Bobo. Several commentators have suggested Bobo as a great candidate to replace Jones. Cant say Im crazy about the idea. Bobo is underrated as an offensive mind, but hes been decisively mediocre as a head coach. He was 7-6 each of the past two seasons at Colorado State. Remember, he took over CSU from Jim McElwain, who went 10-3 there during his final season, so its not like he took on a tough rebuilding job. Bobo basically has zero wins of note. Played Alabama closer than we did this year but thats about the only thing you can really say. And besides, do we really want another Georgia guy as head coach? That worked out so well the first time. The only thing hes really stood out for thus far is recruiting, but we already have a guy who can recruit, and our guy had much better results in the mid-majors before coming to Knoxville.
3. Jeremy Pruitt. I'd rather hire Lane Kiffin again than Pruitt. Pruitt was a toxic locker room presence while at Georgia and I also don't think it's a coincidence that he left Tallahassee after one season (in which he won a national title, and yet still made a lateral move to another school.) He's a great DC, but needs to be reigned in by someone like Saban. As a head coach, I think his toxic personality flaws would come to the forefront.
Unrealistic Candidates
1. Bob Stoops. Great coach. Not coming out of retirement. End of discussion.
2. Mike Leach. Great coach. Offensive genius. But hes 56 years old and I think hed much rather coach out of the media limelight in Pullman, rather than put himself under the microscope in Knoxville.
3. Jon Gruden. Makes $6.5 million per year with the greatest job in the world. Why would anyone leave that gig? He also hasnt coached in 10 years and hasnt been on a college staff in nearly 30 years. Hes not even the home run that people believe him to be. Hed actually be a high-risk hire in many ways. College is different than the NFL and we have no idea if Gruden could build up a college program. Like Peyton Manning, hes much better off being worshipped by Tennessee fans from afar. Even if he were available (and hes probably not), Id still put him in the 2nd tier at best. The biggest thing he has going for him is name recognition would make recruiting easy. But I worry that hed be similar to Jim Mora; improve things in the short-run, but would struggle in the long-run; Gruden has no experience building programs and being a college coach is very different from being an NFL coach where you can mostly focus on Xs and Os and the actual coaching element of the job.
4. Peyton Manning. Hes never coached. His real desire is to be a GM. He can make millions per year from endorsements and basically doing whatever he wants. Hes not a real candidate and we shouldnt hire him even if he were.
5. David Cutcliffe. Great coach. We should have hired him in 08 instead of Kiffin, but its too late now. Hes 63 years old and hes likely perfectly content to retire at Duke, where hell leave a long-term legacy, rather than spend the last years of his career under the pressure cooker in Knoxville.
6. Chris Petersen. Already at a Tier 1 job. Makes $4.2 million. Pacific Northwest guy. No reason to think he'd be interested in leaving his home region, especially now that he's built things up at Washington.
7. Mark Dantonio. Great coach, but he's 61 years old and not starting over in Knoxville.
8. Jimbo Fisher. In spite of the rumors on VN, I don't think he's a realistic candidate here. Huge buyout. No reason Florida State would want to get rid of him. FSU is a Tier 1 job and I don't see why he'd leave; and if he did want to leave, I'd almost view that as a red flag. However, in the extremely unlikely event that he were interested, then he'd certainly fall into the "Dream Hire" or "Tier 1" category.
9. Mark Richt. Probably the most comical of suggestions I've seen. He's competing for a national title at his alma mater which is a Tier 1 job. Richt was underrated at Georgia and I'm happy to see him have great success at Miami, but there's no chance in Hades that he's coming to Knoxville.
10. Mike Gundy. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to land Mike Gundy, but he's at his alma mater and he's not leaving. The only time he talks about other job openings is when he wants more money from T. Boone Pickens.
Let the Discussion Began
Who Am I Missing? Any others out there? I'll try to add and edit the list as more names come out. I'm sure I'm missing a few right now, as well.
Debate Away. I'm interested in hearing perspectives on all of these. I want to know as much as possible.
Edits. Added PJ Fleck, Dave Doeren, Chris Petersen, Paul Chryst, Mark Dantonio, Jimbo Fisher, DJ Durkin, Jeremy Pruitt, Chad Morris.
GBO!
We dont know when it will happen, but its nearly inevitable that Butch Jones will be gone by the end of the season. With the damage done to recruiting and a near zero chance that we could hire a top-notch offensive staff in the offseason, the odds of turning it around for Butch are near zero. Unfortunately, firing Butch will be the easy part. Finding a suitable replacement is going to be a much more difficult task. Here are my thoughts and my list.
The Landscape
There are no home run hires. Everyone wants the home run hire, but the unfortunate truth of the matter is that there are no candidates that are sure-fire successes here. There are some great and very promising candidates, but no home runs.
Its a tricky business. Pete Carroll was maybe the 4th or 5th choice at USC; many USC fans hated the hire; Carroll turned out to be one of the most successful college coaches of all-time. Dabo Swinney was picked at Clemson after what was basically a failed search. Fans were disappointed. Swinney is now considered to be one of the 5 most successful coaches in the game (really only behind Saban and Meyer right now). Meanwhile, plenty of moves that were considered great hires were giant duds. Jim Mora at UCLA was considered a home run and he had early success, but hasnt been able to sustain it. Rich Rod at Michigan was considered close to a home run and that experiment was ended after 3 years. (Let's also not forget that Nick Saban was Bama's 2nd choice.) Charlie Strong was considered one of most promising coaches out there and failed at Texas. Finding a great coach is a trickier business than most realize.
Job is more attractive than in 2010 and 2012. We have talent. The recruiting landscape in Tennessee continues to get better every year. The next coach will have some issues to correct, but he will not inherit the absolute trainwreck Butch did or the dismal situation Dooley walked into. This is the most attractive the Tennessee job has been since 2008 when we inexplicably handed the keys to Kiffin.
Beating Saban is a major challenge. Contrary to popular perception, the SEC is filled with very good coaches. Its just that the good coaches (Malzahn, Sumlin, McElwain, Mullen) have mostly beat each other up and none of them have been able to compete with the Nick Saban juggernaut. To make matters worse, it appears that Kirby Smart is now creating Alabama Junior at Georgia. There are plenty of good coaches out there; its going to take a great coach to win against Saban and Smart. And there simply arent a lot of great coaches out there.
Tennessee has major resources. The value that football brings to UT is immense. The university could afford to shell out $10 million annually for the right coach. But its also not a wise idea to just go throwing around money willy-nilly as we have seen that locking up coaches for huge contracts tends not to work out well when those coaches underperform significantly.
The donor problem. As we all know, a certain donor appears to have heavy influence over the process. It doesn't mean we can't get a top coach; it just means that unfortunately, we're at the mercy of some individuals.
Coaching matters. I've read a few articles claiming that Tennessee isn't what it used to be. I'd strongly disagree. If anything, the Tennessee job is much more attractive now than it was 5, 10, or 30 years ago. Recruiting in Tennessee is very good and UT has a major advantage in that regard. We're close to Atlanta, one of the biggest markets for football talent in the nation. We have some of the best facilities in the nation and strong fan support. Our only real problem over the past decade has been coaching. We're not the only program that has suffered from bad or mediocre coaching; Miami had a decade of futility as well and Miami has one of the biggest recruiting advantages in college football. Alabama went through a bad decade after Gene Stallings resigned in 1996. People said the same crap about Alabama in 2006 as they say about Tennessee in 2017. There's no reason Tennessee can't be a top 10 program; it all comes down to coaching.
The Candidates
Here are some of the candidates, ranked by my preference. Im sure Im missing some.
Dream Hires
1. Justin Fuente. Long shot IMO. Gary Patterson protégé. Turned a terrible Memphis team into a legit top 25 team. Turned VT around in 1 year and is looking even better in Year #2 in spite of losing some major talent. Dont think hes leaving VT. Fuente took the VT job because of his strong relationship with AD Whit Babcock. He has a top 5 Defensive Coordinator in Bud Foster, who is probably staying at VT for life. Expectations are lower. Path to conference title and playoff much easier in ACC than in the SEC. Already makes $3.2 million; while we could outbid VT, I suspect its more likely that hed get a nice raise and stay at VT. Closest thing to a home run hire IMO if we got him, but its very unlikely.
2. Gary Patterson. Also a long-shot. Wouldve been a great hire back in 2008. Hes 57 now. Would he really want to start over? Hes taken TCU to heights never anticipated, but he has had a few down years recently (2013 and 2016). Nevertheless, undoubtedly one of the best coaches in the game.
Top Tier
1. Scott Frost. Excellent coach. Helfrichs OC at Oregon the 3 good years. Crushing it at UCF this year. Out of the up-and-comers, the closest thing to a home run hire IMO. Only problem is that theres a big risk with Nebraskas situation. Very good possibility that job comes open with a year or two. Frost might bolt for Nebraska. For that matter, its completely plausible that Nebraska fires Mike Riley this season to make a run at Frost. Even if we offer Frost twice as much as Nebraska, he still might pick his alma mater. It sucks, but I just dont see us getting him.
2. Dan Mullen. Hes done more with less at Miss State. 7 consecutive bowl games (including an Orange Bowl appearance) at the toughest job in the SEC. Won 2 national titles as OC at Florida and molded Alex Smith into a top NFL prospect at Utah. Has routinely coached up QBs, including Dak Prescott and his current QB, Nick Fitzgerald. Biggest issue with getting Mullen is that he already makes $4.5 million, which is about the same as Butch. How much more do you have to pay him to come to Knoxville? Is it worth the risk? Its not easy to recruit to Starkville. Hed get better players in Knoxville and have a chance for a national title. The case against Mullen is mostly that hes struggled against the top 20. However, hes never been close in talent to programs like Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M. With better resources, Mullen could attract better talent, and conceivably compete for a national title at Tennessee.
3. Brent Venables. One of the best DCs in the nation. Hes a major reason behind Clemsons recent success. His resume is basically a dream in terms of mentors: Bill Snyder, Bob Stoops, Dabo Swinney. He was DC for two different national championship teams. Even though hes a defensive guy, he has a lot of connections, so its reasonable to believe he could fix the offense as well. The downsides are that he has no head coaching experience and the overall track record of Fiery DCs with success coaching defense as head coaches isnt necessarily great (e.g. Muschamp, Rex Ryan); but it does appear to be working for Georgia right now with Kirby Smart.
4. P.J. Fleck. May or may not be realistic given that he's only been at Minnesota for less than a season. I don't have a strong opinion on Fleck (never watched a game that he's coached), but difficult to deny he has a great track record and is very young at age 36. He's also a former NFL Wide Receiver, which is great, because Wide Receiver is the position that is in greatest need of "fixing" at UT. His buyout appears rather manageable. Biggest question mark: can he recruit the South? He's been a Midwestern guy for his entire coaching career.
5. Joe Moorhead. Very underrated. Not a well-known name, but he's been the OC at Penn State the past two seasons. Penn States offense took off after he took over and hes put up high point totals against some very good defenses. Also a former Head Coach at Fordham, who took over a 1-10 team and turned them into a playoff team within 2 seasons; made the FCS playoffs his last 3 seasons. Hes the anti-Butch; he took over a Fordham program with few resources and major disadvantages and had to innovate his way to success. Moorhead could be a Jim Tressel diamond in the rough type that people are ignoring largely because a good chunk of his career was spent in FCS. Right now, Id consider Moorhead to be one of the best out of the realistic candidates. Biggest question mark might be recruiting given that hes only been at a big time program (Penn State) for two years.
Second Tier
1. Jeff Brohm. On one hand, Brohms record is really not that different from Butch Jones before he got here. On the other hand, Brohm is actually one of the most well-respected offensive minds in the game. Hes basically Bobby Petrino w/o the baggage of Bobby Petrino. Hes known as an excellent QB coach and we desperately need that. Though, we really have no idea how hed do with recruiting or anything like that. Some have concerns that hed bolt for Louisville (his alma mater) if the job came open, but if he took the Tennessee job, I suspect he has ambitions to win a national title and he realizes that Tennessee is a better place for that than Louisville.
2. Chip Kelly. Bordeline between 1st and 2nd tier for me. Very impressive record at Oregon (46-7) with 4 BCS bowl appearances. On paper, he looks like a dream candidate. In reality, Im very skeptical that he can achieve those results again. Biggest problem is that NFL defenses figured him out within a few years to the point that the defenses were literally calling out the plays before they happened. His last year in Philly and San Fran were disasters. Kellys gimmick was the Hurry-Up No-Huddle offense, but this offense requires simplification, and defenses have increasingly adapted to it. Its easy to say guys like Saban, Spurrier, and Petrino went to the NFL, failed and then went back to college to major success, and assume that applies to Kelly as well. But Saban is a master recruiter and organization guy (whereas Kelly dislikes recruiting), and Kelly hasnt shown the same ability to adapt his offense that Spurrier and Petrino have. I question whether hed fit in Knoxville and could see him failing in the same way that RichRod did in Ann Arbor. Not saying he couldnt change his offense and have huge success; I just see him as a much bigger risk than most. If we could get him on the cheap for $3 million, Id elevate him to first tier and say we should consider the risk. However, were probably going to have to pay him $6 million plus to lure him here and then he could flop big-time and were stuck in a worse situation than we were before. I just see him as too big of a risk given his likely salary demands.
3. Tee Martin. Great recruiter. Good OC. Could be a pretty good hire, but hes never been a head coach before, and Tennessee isnt exactly the easiest job to start with. I wouldnt quite put him on the level as Venables in terms of success, but hes been pretty good. Hed be a gamble, but a reasonable one IMO if no top-tier candidate pans out. Also, for those clamoring for Lane Kiffin (a terrible idea), Martin basically brings a Lane Kiffin style offense without Lane Kiffin style baggage and immaturity. The other big benefit with Martin; hes a Wide Receiver and Quarterback coach and those are our two biggest problem areas right now.
4. Matt Campbell. Iowa State coach that is making some noise in only his 2nd season. Iowa State is arguably one of the toughest jobs in the Big 12 and Campbell is doing very well. Big upset win over a top 5 Oklahoma team on the road. 5-2 record this year, also with a win over Texas Tech. Very good track record at Toledo before I State.
5. Chad Morris. Very accomplished as the former OC at Clemson under Dabo Swinney. He's slowly been rebuilding at SMU where he took over a 1-11 program. He's yet to turn the corner at SMU, but he has them competitive again at 6-4 with close games versus UCF and Navy. Morris could be a very good hire, but tough to evaluate him based on the mess he took over at SMU.
6. Mike Norvell. Great offensive mind. Limited track record. Hes been successful in his 2 years at Memphis, but Justin Fuente built the program up before he got there. Nevertheless, his offenses have been very impressive. Hed be an upgrade over Butch Jones on the offensive end, at the very least. While Id rather have one of the names above him on this list, I wouldnt be disappointed with Norvell.
Third Tier
1. Charlie Strong. Tough to figure him out. Had great success at Louisville. Bombed at Texas. Doing very well with Willie Taggarts players at USF. Hes a good coach and DC; just tough to explain why he fared so poorly at Texas, but has done well literally everywhere else hes been.
2. Dave Doeren. Like Charlie Strong, tough to figure out. He's a good coach, but not clear if he can be a "great coach." Very impressively led Northern Illinois to the Orange Bowl back in 2012. He's had flashes of brilliance at NC State, but has never truly broken through. 8-5, 7-6, and 7-6 his past three seasons, with a few near-wins against power programs. Doeren is 7-3 this season with a win over Louisville and Florida State. he came close, once again, versus Clemson. Has struggled at times with recruiting, but his recruiting seems to improve with wins. I don't know if he would succeed in Knoxville or not; my gut says he's the type of guy who gets you to bowl games and 8- and 9- win seasons regularly and every now and then, gives you a 10-3 season. Not a terrible hire, but also not clear if he's the guy that can beat Nick Saban and win the SEC.
3. Lane Kiffin. Every fiber of my being hates considering this, but there's a legitimate case for Lane Kiffin as "G5 Coach of the Year." He's taken a Florida Atlantic program that was last in Conference USA and has moved them up to first place in a single season. The 2017 Lane Kiffin is worlds better than the 2008 Lane Kiffin. Difficult to see how he could come back to UT, however, after the train wreck he left behind.
4. Bo Pelini. Underrated as a coach. 67-27 at Nebraska in spite of never being able to get top-tier talent. Had Youngstown State in the FCS Championship Game within 2 years, but seems to have taken a step back this year. Pelini would likely deliver solid results, but he's not a top-notch recruiter and I suspect he's a guy that can consistently get you to mid-tier bowl games and an occasionally top-tier bowl, but who doesn't really have us competing for the SEC.
5. D.J. Durkin. Add another one into the "difficult to evaluate" category. There is a good case for Durkin; successful DC under Will Muschamp; also a position coach under Harbaugh at Stanford; he was also DC at Michigan for Harbaugh's first season. Problem is that it's very difficult to evaluate his performance as Head Coach given that he's at Maryland and he's basically in a division with 4 monsters right now (Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State). There are some very good coaches who would look like crap in that situation. Did a reasonable job last year and he's won a few that he wasn't supposed to. Not clear to me that he'd be a great coach in Knoxville, though.
6. Scott Satterfield. If Im being honest, I really dont know much about Scott Satterfield other than that hes had a reasonable amount of success coaching Appalachian State. He was 11-2 in 2015 and 10-3 last season. So hes a good coach. Im not sure if his App State success would translate to Tennessee.
7. Bob Shoop. Not the inspiring choice that UT fans want, but potentially not a bad option if we cant land a top-tier coach. Shoops defense played extremely well in early 2015 before injuries decimated the team. This season, his defense has improved with every game. However, the most promising thing about Shoop is that he actually understands hiring and firing. Went out and got Brady Hoke and Charleton Warren in the offseason and likely advocated for replacing Willie Martinez. Weve seen major improvement in the pass defense this season as a result. Shoop could probably be hired on the cheap, meaning if he didnt work out, we could buy him out for much less than other candidates. At the same time, if he could recruit a top-notch OC and staff to Knoxville (as he did Hoke and Charleton Warren), it might not be difficult to turn this ship around.
8. Jim Bob Cooter. Probably not realistic. I get the sense that Cooter is more interested in an NFL opening than college. Also, while hes a great offensive mind, hed be a high-risk hire. He has little experience coaching the college game, no real experience recruiting, and might have personal baggage that make him reluctant to be under the microscope in Knoxville. That said, difficult to deny that hes a very promising coach.
9. Mike MacIntyre. Very good coach. Disciple of David Cutcliffe. However, MacIntyres inability to recruit concerns me a lot. The SEC is a tough conference and coaching em up only goes so far when you have to compete against the Nick Saban juggernaut. Also, has not exactly been scandal-free in Boulder.
10. Paul Chryst. Stop me if you've heard this one before: Wisconsin coach decides to leave program he's having major success at for "greener pastures" (i.e. places w/ less control by Barry Alvarez); coach flops at his new job. So far as I can tell, the common denominator with Wisconsin's success is Barry Alvarez, not the head coach. It's weird, but how else do you explain the fact that it keeps happening? Worth noting that Chryst didn't exactly light it up at Pitt before he went to Wisconsin.
11. Bobby Petrino. Its not only Petrinos scandal-plague past that bothers me. Its the fact that hes left almost every place hes been in crap-shape when hes departed. Hes not a program builder. Hes a guy who knows Xs and Os and overachieves while hes there, but doesnt really care bout the long-term success of the program. Do we really want that? Id much rather take Jeff Brohm than Petrino, as Brohm is basically Petrino without the baggage.
We Shouldnt Even Consider
1. Les Miles. Why are people so enamored with Les Miles? Hes a good recruiter who hasnt had a legit offense in years and who makes questionable in-game decisions. How does that differ from what we have right now with Butch Jones? LSU is the best job in the nation in terms of talent available. If Miles couldnt succeed with an absolutely loaded LSU roster over the past several years, why would he succeed at Tennessee? Miles would be an absolutely atrocious hire. Ole Miss (which isnt going to have a lot of good options) should go after him; theres absolutely no reason for us to go down that route.
2. Mike Bobo. Several commentators have suggested Bobo as a great candidate to replace Jones. Cant say Im crazy about the idea. Bobo is underrated as an offensive mind, but hes been decisively mediocre as a head coach. He was 7-6 each of the past two seasons at Colorado State. Remember, he took over CSU from Jim McElwain, who went 10-3 there during his final season, so its not like he took on a tough rebuilding job. Bobo basically has zero wins of note. Played Alabama closer than we did this year but thats about the only thing you can really say. And besides, do we really want another Georgia guy as head coach? That worked out so well the first time. The only thing hes really stood out for thus far is recruiting, but we already have a guy who can recruit, and our guy had much better results in the mid-majors before coming to Knoxville.
3. Jeremy Pruitt. I'd rather hire Lane Kiffin again than Pruitt. Pruitt was a toxic locker room presence while at Georgia and I also don't think it's a coincidence that he left Tallahassee after one season (in which he won a national title, and yet still made a lateral move to another school.) He's a great DC, but needs to be reigned in by someone like Saban. As a head coach, I think his toxic personality flaws would come to the forefront.
Unrealistic Candidates
1. Bob Stoops. Great coach. Not coming out of retirement. End of discussion.
2. Mike Leach. Great coach. Offensive genius. But hes 56 years old and I think hed much rather coach out of the media limelight in Pullman, rather than put himself under the microscope in Knoxville.
3. Jon Gruden. Makes $6.5 million per year with the greatest job in the world. Why would anyone leave that gig? He also hasnt coached in 10 years and hasnt been on a college staff in nearly 30 years. Hes not even the home run that people believe him to be. Hed actually be a high-risk hire in many ways. College is different than the NFL and we have no idea if Gruden could build up a college program. Like Peyton Manning, hes much better off being worshipped by Tennessee fans from afar. Even if he were available (and hes probably not), Id still put him in the 2nd tier at best. The biggest thing he has going for him is name recognition would make recruiting easy. But I worry that hed be similar to Jim Mora; improve things in the short-run, but would struggle in the long-run; Gruden has no experience building programs and being a college coach is very different from being an NFL coach where you can mostly focus on Xs and Os and the actual coaching element of the job.
4. Peyton Manning. Hes never coached. His real desire is to be a GM. He can make millions per year from endorsements and basically doing whatever he wants. Hes not a real candidate and we shouldnt hire him even if he were.
5. David Cutcliffe. Great coach. We should have hired him in 08 instead of Kiffin, but its too late now. Hes 63 years old and hes likely perfectly content to retire at Duke, where hell leave a long-term legacy, rather than spend the last years of his career under the pressure cooker in Knoxville.
6. Chris Petersen. Already at a Tier 1 job. Makes $4.2 million. Pacific Northwest guy. No reason to think he'd be interested in leaving his home region, especially now that he's built things up at Washington.
7. Mark Dantonio. Great coach, but he's 61 years old and not starting over in Knoxville.
8. Jimbo Fisher. In spite of the rumors on VN, I don't think he's a realistic candidate here. Huge buyout. No reason Florida State would want to get rid of him. FSU is a Tier 1 job and I don't see why he'd leave; and if he did want to leave, I'd almost view that as a red flag. However, in the extremely unlikely event that he were interested, then he'd certainly fall into the "Dream Hire" or "Tier 1" category.
9. Mark Richt. Probably the most comical of suggestions I've seen. He's competing for a national title at his alma mater which is a Tier 1 job. Richt was underrated at Georgia and I'm happy to see him have great success at Miami, but there's no chance in Hades that he's coming to Knoxville.
10. Mike Gundy. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to land Mike Gundy, but he's at his alma mater and he's not leaving. The only time he talks about other job openings is when he wants more money from T. Boone Pickens.
Let the Discussion Began
Who Am I Missing? Any others out there? I'll try to add and edit the list as more names come out. I'm sure I'm missing a few right now, as well.
Debate Away. I'm interested in hearing perspectives on all of these. I want to know as much as possible.
Edits. Added PJ Fleck, Dave Doeren, Chris Petersen, Paul Chryst, Mark Dantonio, Jimbo Fisher, DJ Durkin, Jeremy Pruitt, Chad Morris.
GBO!
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