Coaching Landscape (long...tl/dr, don't care...lol)

#1

jakez4ut

Patience... It's what's for dinner
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#1
so, i think we all know it's a matter of when, not if, at this point. i'm not going to re hash all the stuff that's happened while he's been here, nor am i going to extrapolate what i think will happen the rest of the season. to me it simply doesn't matter, and until something is made public, and a new coach is hired, imo, there's just not much that needs to be said. it all stands on it's own merit.

what i do think is going to be important going forward is how the head coaching landscape has changed over the last 5-10 years. and how that plays in to how we choose the next guy.

last week a discussion was going on about how we need a "proven head coach" and many of the usual suspects were named, all with the intent of how we find the "next" urban meyer or nick saban.

my take on that is simple...it's just not as easy to spot the "next" sure thing as it may have been 10+ years ago. it's also my contention that rarely do head coaches that perform at an elite level at one top tier p5 school, repeat or replicate that, at another top tier P5 school. Saban and Meyer being the obvious exceptions. the usual progression has been in the past to go from mid major/2nd tier p5/elite P5 coordinator to top tier P5 head head coach. i'm not convinced Kelly is that guy for us. Stoops has made it clear he's retired and doesn't want to coach, and Gruden...i just don't see it. (that said, if Gruden, Kelly or Stoops are "that guy" for us, and you simply aren't going to take no for an answer...so be it....give it your best shot....i just don't think that will happen)

head coach career paths are wholly different today than they were several years ago. you aren't seeing the typical progression where a coach is a head coach at a mid major or 2nd tier stop for multiple years building his resume. either that or a somewhat long term coordinator at an elite level program a la a Bob Stoops or Mark Richt or Kirby Smart.

most of the coaches being hired these days may only have 2-3 years of head coaching experience period, and that's at a mid major or 2nd tier p5 program. some programs are changing head coaches multiple times in a 5-10 year span. and as those coaches are being replaced at the p5 level, so are the coaches at the lower levels. the experience pool is thin these days, and in this graph, you can see how it looks over the last 5 years alone. in 3 of the last 5 years there has been more turnover (27, 30, and 52)at head coaching positions than any single year going back to 2001 (25 positions). in fact, looking at total turnover 2001 thru 2011, 216 coaches were replaced. in the last 5 years, 144 have taken place.

that's a lot folks. taking it in 5 year segments...2001-2005: 93 the next 5 years: 98...so the last 5 years has seen a 50% increase in turnover rate.

so for everyone saying we have to hire a proven head coach, i'm just gonna say, easier said than done.

that doesn't mean we should keep CBJ.

what i do think it says is in today's day and age, TN needs to decide what we want to be and make every effort to get "the guy" they want.

at some point (and that may not be right now, fearfully), Tennessee is simply going to have to say "we're not settling for anything, this is our guy, and we're not taking no for an answer".

if they don't, then it's likely any coach he we hire is going to likely come in with a heavy dose of the unknown and will probably be viewed by fans as the next Dooley or Jones, until proven otherwise.

i don't envy what Currie is going to have to do, at least form the standpoint of choosing the next guy. it's just not as easy to spot the next "sure thing" as it used to be. and maybe all of this could be part of the reasoning used to go out and offer a ton of money to a stoops, kelly or gruden. maybe.

as you look around the entire landscape, the sure thing coaches aren't leaving Bama, OSU, FSU etc....for any school, not just UT. Miami hired a retread in Richt, but that's fairly rare....a lot of the P5 coaches fired over the last couple years either taken a TV job, coordinator job or just are out of coaching a la Les Miles or Gene Chizik or randy shannon.

none of this means, however, that we can't find and hire a really good coach. it does mean though, that you might not know, right now anyway, who that is.

Coaches | By The Numbers - Case Study: Coaching Changes in College Football.
 
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#2
#2
Very interesting summary of the landscape. Thank you for sharing.

In a lot of ways, it a self-fulfilling event. Sort of a perpetual motion machine.

The fan bases and financial supporters are less patient, and thus coaches are hired with a shorter rope. Those who don't meet expectations are fired, and thus the demand for coaches is higher as there more openings. Because there are more openings, it's more likely that coaches with less experience and qualifications are going to be hired. When those coaches are hired, they are more likely to get fired. And, thus the wheel keeps turning.

It's a very short-sided view, IMO. For example, if it is true that in the past, the UT admin did not want to spring the cash for a big time coach, just look at the results of the past 8 seasons. They paid $5M to Dooley. If they wind up paying $7-8M to Jones, that averages out to more than $1.5M per year on top of the salaries paid that could have been paid to a better coach to start with.
 
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#3
#3
You just keep on trying until you hit the jackpot!!

If it's an "up and comer"... dont give him a ridiculous buyout if he ends up sucking. Mitigate the losses in order to keep trying. When UT stops trying to find the next legendary UT coach... just drop the program. What's the point? Why go to a "Social Event" when you know your "team" will get its' brains beat out? Tennessee must have a lot of masochists around campus.
 
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#4
#4
Very interesting summary of the landscape. Thank you for sharing.

In a lot of ways, it a self-fulfilling event. Sort of a perpetual motion machine.

The fan bases and financial supporters are less patient, and thus coaches are hired with a shorter rope. Those who don't meet expectations are fired, and thus the demand for coaches is higher as there more openings. Because there are more openings, it's more likely that coaches with less experience and qualifications are going to be hired. When those coaches are hired, they are more likely to get fired. And, thus the wheel keeps turning.
yeah, it's hard to say that "AD's should be more patient". individually, all have probably had some good reasoning for making their changes when they made them.

but as you look at some schools, like TN, who have had 4 coaches, in the last 10 years, the patience meter is stuck on zero.

where it's most evident is at the lower levels, where these up and coming coaches are being turned over every couple years, as bigger schools come in and poach those guys...at a much faster rate, than they used to.

Memphis, as an example, just lost Fuente, and they're likely gonna lose this guy they got right now as well. HOuston sort of falls in that category having watched Sumlin and HErman both leave in the last 5 years. cincinnati went thr that with Kelly and Jones.

so long story short for me...what happens next really depends on what Currie and co. truly want TN to be.

you gonna do what GA did and pounce on a Kirby Smart because he was YOUR guy and you were willing do what was necessary to make it happen? or Bama that just wouldn't take a "no" from Saban?

if we do, then i think we can wind up with a Gruden, Kelly or Stoops type guy. cause that is what it will take to land one of those guys.

if we don't, then we'll scour the 2ne level group of coordinators and coaches and hope we pick the right one.
 
#5
#5
You just keep on trying until you hit the jackpot!!

If it's an "up and comer"... dont give him a ridiculous buyout if he ends up sucking. Mitigate the losses in order to keep trying. . . .

You don't always have a choice in the matter. These schools are competing for these coaches. They are in demand. If you have a guy who you think is the next big thing, then it's fairly likely that there are a number of other schools out there that also think he's the next big thing.

The buyout is part of the contract. When contracts are highly favorable to the university, it likely because there wasn't a lot of demand for the coach.
 
#6
#6
You don't always have a choice in the matter. These schools are competing for these coaches. They are in demand. If you have a guy who you think is the next big thing, then it's fairly likely that there are a number of other schools out there that also think he's the next big thing.

The buyout is part of the contract. When contracts are highly favorable to the university, it likely because there wasn't a lot of demand for the coach.

yep, and with the way coaches are turned over today, you don't necessarily have to be "the next big thing" to draw some level of demand.

they only ones it hurts, are the smaller schools that don't have the leverage or resources to incorporate large buyouts for their coaches.

and again, if you are self aware enough as a program to know that you're a stepping stone program for a coach, then you have to prepare accordingly, or be prepared to do something that's out of character for your program, and deal with the ramifications of it, if it goes bad.
 
#7
#7
. . . if you are self aware enough as a program to know that you're a stepping stone program for a coach, then you have to prepare accordingly . . .

Some of the ADs at these schools may be the real diamonds in the rough. Any AD that can hire 2 or 3 coaches in a row that end up having success and getting cherry-picked ought to be recognized for doing that. It's a real skill.
 
#8
#8
What about coach Scott Frost as a legitimate candidate. He is doing miracles at Central Florida, and he runs a spread offense simliar to what we currently have and have the players for that system. Ironically it was Scott Frost that beat us back in 1998. But he would be a great potential candidate for us.
 
#9
#9
For those who think Tennessee is cheap...that's not the case...they've just wasted money on the wrong man twice...Butch Jones is making in the scheme of what every other head coach is making outside of Saban, Harbaugh, and Meyer....I'm just saying :dunno:
 
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#10
#10
Good post, Jake.

The coaching search is going to be very difficult. There just aren't a lot of obvious top-notch coaches out there up from grabs.

I agree, too, that most of the names being mentioned on the board are unrealistic. Gruden is a long-shot; he hasn't coached in 10 years; and who knows if he could even adapt to the college game (see Jim Mora). I'm not sold on Chip Kelly as his offense has largely been "figured out" and he was never good with recruiting or being an CEO / organizational guy (like Nick Saban). Stoops retired for a reason. Gary Patterson would've come back in 2008, but probably not now.

Coaches from other top-tier or near-top-tier P5 programs aren't coming. Fans like to believe there's some sort of magical hierarchy and the coach at the #16 best program will bolt for the #9 best program, but that's not how it works. There are probably about 20 - 25 very good jobs that coaches can win big at and they tend not to leave once they establish themselves.

The best "realistic" name out there is Scott Frost and we're unfortunate that Nebraska may very well fire Mike Riley this year. Given that Frost is a Nebraska native and a former QB at the school, even if UT were willing to offer twice as much in salary as Nebraska, we'd still probably lose out to Nebraska.

Brent Venables is the most realistic name out there. Top defensive guy. One of the major reasons why Clemson has become a superpower, but still unproven as a Head Coach. He's my top "realistic" pick, but we don't know if he'll be the next Nick Saban or the next Will Muschamp.

In a sense, I do wish the university would go ahead and fire Butch and let Shoop take over as interim. I don't expect us to hire Shoop as HC, but it would be nice to see how he performs over the next few months just in case we don't have many options. (VN hates this idea, but remember ... it worked out very well with Dabo Swinney.)

But aside from Venables and Frost, who are the realistic candidates that we'd want? Firing Butch is the obvious part. Finding a replacement is the difficult part.
 
#11
#11
Good post, Jake.

The coaching search is going to be very difficult. There just aren't a lot of obvious top-notch coaches out there up from grabs.

I agree, too, that most of the names being mentioned on the board are unrealistic. Gruden is a long-shot; he hasn't coached in 10 years; and who knows if he could even adapt to the college game (see Jim Mora). I'm not sold on Chip Kelly as his offense has largely been "figured out" and he was never good with recruiting or being an CEO / organizational guy (like Nick Saban). Stoops retired for a reason. Gary Patterson would've come back in 2008, but probably not now.

Coaches from other top-tier or near-top-tier P5 programs aren't coming. Fans like to believe there's some sort of magical hierarchy and the coach at the #16 best program will bolt for the #9 best program, but that's not how it works. There are probably about 20 - 25 very good jobs that coaches can win big at and they tend not to leave once they establish themselves.

The best "realistic" name out there is Scott Frost and we're unfortunate that Nebraska may very well fire Mike Riley this year. Given that Frost is a Nebraska native and a former QB at the school, even if UT were willing to offer twice as much in salary as Nebraska, we'd still probably lose out to Nebraska.

Brent Venables is the most realistic name out there. Top defensive guy. One of the major reasons why Clemson has become a superpower, but still unproven as a Head Coach. He's my top "realistic" pick, but we don't know if he'll be the next Nick Saban or the next Will Muschamp.

In a sense, I do wish the university would go ahead and fire Butch and let Shoop take over as interim. I don't expect us to hire Shoop as HC, but it would be nice to see how he performs over the next few months just in case we don't have many options. (VN hates this idea, but remember ... it worked out very well with Dabo Swinney.)

But aside from Venables and Frost, who are the realistic candidates that we'd want? Firing Butch is the obvious part. Finding a replacement is the difficult part.

i think that's why there's already some discord between some of us when talking candidates. there really isn't a sure thing that everyone will agree on. and there are more "realistic" candidates than Frost, Venebles and Brohm.

Scott Frost...i'm one that says pass. why? cause i don't think he's done anything that warrants him being ready to run a program like TN. and i think if the opportunity arose, he'd leave wherever he is for Nebraska.

Venebles is very intriguing to me, but unless he's changed his tune from a couple of years ago (it's possible he has), he has no real desire to be a head coach and join that kind of rat race. i think he just enjoys "coaching". if that's changed, he's definitely worth talking to.

the Jeff Brohm thread has gotten a lot of attention, some for, some against it...but i tend to lean toward him because he actually has a resume and experience that should translate, and an offensive philosophy that is way more identifiable with TN than anything CBJ or Chip Kelly does.

doesn't mean i'm right. i can't tell you that 1/2 a year of above average football for Purdue, and his experience at WKU = success at a school like TN.

but get ready, our next coach is, imo, likely to come from a group of coaches of this ilk.
 
#12
#12
I would think twice about hiring a coach that has been fired. That's a red flag.
 
#13
#13
For those who think Tennessee is cheap...that's not the case...they've just wasted money on the wrong man twice...Butch Jones is making in the scheme of what every other head coach is making outside of Saban, Harbaugh, and Meyer....I'm just saying :dunno:
isn't that kind of the point...look at the names you named right after that statement....

what does TN want to be? you wanna be "like everyone else", then keep paying the middle of the road salaries to middle of the road coaches and hope you hit on one that works out for you.

otherwise, pick your guy or guys, and don't take no for an answer.

no one is saying "pay the WKU coach $6m/year" just for the sake of spending a lot of money.

the point is, the willingness to say "this is our guy, and we're going to get him, no matter what"....and chances are that kind of guy is toward the top of most people's lists. not some "also ran or up and comer" that we're just going to throw money at for the sake of doing it.
 
#14
#14
I would think twice about hiring a coach that has been fired. That's a red flag.

Think twice... Sure. But I don't know it should be a death nail.

There are plenty of coaches that have been fired and worked out elsewhere...muschamp for example was a an unmitigated disaster at Florida. So far at south Carolina, so good.

Situation and circumstance have to be considered.
 

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