How good are we, really? (Long, sorry)

#1

Benchwarmer

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#1
Many of us are pretty optimistic about the upcoming season. Many on here have us beating Florida and Georgia. And I also think that is quite possible, but definitely not a given. I would like to explore the reasons for the optimism. What is it about team 121 that makes you confident? Is it just the hopeful optimism that most fans of most teams have going into the season? An optimism that I also feel. Or does the optimism have real legs to stand on? (Yes, I know there was a thread about this earlier).

Those with unbridled optimism may think I'm a pessimist, but I like to think of myself as a realist. But flame away if you feel the need to vent. I want to hear from you if you have some honest reasons that can stand up under scrutiny, as opposed to just hopeful optimism.

Playing devil's advocate for the moment, consider the following.

We have an offensive coordinator who has never called plays during a game before. There is some uncertainty anytime someone has not done something before. And will he be a better strategist than Mike Debord? The jury is out on that, IMO. We scored more offensive touchdowns than anyone in the SEC last year. That is a pretty high bar for Scott to follow with a new quarterback.

Our probable starting quarterback had some nice throws last year when he had a chance to play, but did the other aspects of his game excite you? How much better will he be this year with the total package of being a QB? How much has he benefited from Coach Canales?
There is some uncertainty there, IMO. There will be times when he will not look like a seasoned veteran, and we should be prepared for that. How will he perform under pressure?

Why do you think our defense will be one of the better ones in the SEC, if you think that? Are there real reasons that our defense should be, say, in the top five in the SEC? I think there could be a significant fall-off between the starters and the 2nd string on defense.
Does our 2nd string give us a chance to compete, since games are often won or lost because of the backups?
Have you looked at other team's defenses and compared them with ours?

This late into fall practice, it seems they are still looking for someone to step up at cornerback. Justin Martin has had a good camp, from what I hear. But we need four people who can play.

With the questions about the offensive line coming out of practice, is there more reason for confidence than just saying that they should be better this year?

Until they start playing, we really don't know how good our wide receivers will be apart from Jennings. And we need six good ones, not one good one. Do we have them?

I think we have a lot of uncertainty about the running back position behind our starter. I don't think any of us really know if we have a solid #2 and #3 back until we start playing.

Who are the dominant players on our team that create mismatches with other teams' players? Is there anyone right now--not will there be by December--but right now, who you would consider a top five player at his position in the SEC? I can think of two. Evan Berry and Trevor Daniel.

Is there any position group for the Vols that you would consider to be top five in the SEC? Most preseason magazines don't seem to think so. But they could be wrong.

I realize that every team other than Alabama has question marks. And it is often how the question marks play out that determines how good a team will be. I think Auburn could be a very good team if the question marks play out in their favor this year.

I'll be honest. I think Georgia on paper may have fewer question marks than we do. I also don't think Florida will be as bad as some of you think they will be. Can we beat them? Sure, we can. But my confidence level that we will is not as high as some posters.

I can see a lot of potential for team 121 to be good, even SEC East championship good. But a lot has to come together for them to realize that potential. My greatest concern is how good the backup RB's will be. Perhaps they will be good in time, but we need them to be good by Florida.

I honestly don't see us as having any glaring weaknesses, if all the position groups play like I expect them to. I think we are a pretty balanced team in the sense that we may not have any great position groups, but they may all be good enough. I have a hopeful optimism, but there is still a lot of question marks that won't be answered, except on the field.

Go Vols! Realize your potential.
 
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#4
#4
Don't know yet.

The fun is finding out.



Post 95,000 :pepper: :yikes:
 
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#6
#6
I too am optimistic that we can go 10-2 ( losing to UF and BAMA). Also a realist and that seems out of the reach of Butch for some reason feel he is going to fire a couple of blanks and lose a close games to LSU or UGA.

BUT.... if we come out and play as a TEAM, with a huge chop on their shoulder we could maybe just maybe win the EAST???????
 
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#10
#10
I too am optimistic that we can go 10-2 ( losing to UF and BAMA). Also a realist and that seems out of the reach of Butch for some reason feel he is going to fire a couple of blanks and lose a close games to LSU or UGA.

BUT.... if we come out and play as a TEAM, with a huge chop on their shoulder we could maybe just maybe win the EAST???????

Agree but why the hell would we come out with CHOPS on our shoulders... Deerpark, are we changing unis?
 
#11
#11
I appreciate your passion. Anyone who writes that much loves the hell outta their team, so much respect for that.
 
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#13
#13
Typical two week before the season jitters we all feel. :)

My take - I liked Debord - just because he was an old fella, like me. Seriously - he did pull out some pretty good plays from time to time, however Hurd up the middle on the first two downs got a little old. What was Hurd's longest run? 25 yards?

So - with 2 new backs, and a new qb - and maybe a little sturdier OL, I think the offence has the potential to really be good. Accuracy in the long ball will be refreshing (Dobbs did throw a hell of a hail mary though). Hopefully the playbook will be unpredictable.

Defense worries me more. If we stay healthy, good things could happen. The good thing about having so many injuries last year was that younger players got significant snaps. That can only be good.

Doug Mathews keeps crowing about Ignot. Can't wait to see that young man. I'm picturing next Al Wilson.

It's going to be a good year.
 
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#15
#15
From an outsider perspective I do believe you have the talent to compete for the east. But I think it not unreasonable to want to see you win a couple of games you shouldn't, rather than lose a couple you shouldn't, before deciding that you are firmly back.

I'd say no offense. But reality is that those fans who disagree with me would never care. Those that do agree I think outnumber the others.
 
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#16
#16
The optimist in me says that we shut Vandy and SC up, shock LSU, and beat UF and/or UGA on the way to Atlanta. 10-2

We have the roster to shock a few "better" teams on our schedule, and we are in a winnable division.

The pessimist in me says that lingering injuries and woes from 2016 bleed into 2017. The wheels fall off through Bama (our fourth loss) and we drop another on the back end of our season. 7-5

Realistically, I really CAN see 9 reg season wins, but I still don't trust Butch as a game day coach, and I don't know how this team can improve on last year's 8 regular season wins. 9 wins total including a bowl win or loss seem like feasible expectations.

This post won't get me any VN Likes but if this team weren't Tennessee I probably wouldn't expect much.
 
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#17
#17
Yeah, that hurts my eyes but... stop looking behind you. You have everything you need to succeed in the palm of your hands. It's right in front of you. This "but we've never done (X,Y,) before" argument is getting really old. It's an old people argument. NOBODY has done NOTHING until it's done. This is the time for doing. This is not the time for sulking and looking for excuses to fail. Lord give us all strength. I'm seeing the strangest post being thrown up tonight all over the place. People are on edge like they are about to lose their minds and just looking for any excuse. Is this eclipse the end of days?
 
#18
#18
We have POTENTIAL and that brings optimism. We have players with the physical talent to get it done. We have a new coaching staffing that I have faith in.
If we had last years coaches I would be less optimistic. If FL and UGA didn't have some serious issues if there own I would also be less optomistic.

I am not one predicting we beat Bama and get in the playoff.
 
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#19
#19
I too am optimistic that we can go 10-2 ( losing to UF and BAMA). Also a realist and that seems out of the reach of Butch for some reason feel he is going to fire a couple of blanks and lose a close games to LSU or UGA.

BUT.... if we come out and play as a TEAM, with a huge chop on their shoulder we could maybe just maybe win the EAST???????


BUT.... if we come out and play as a TEAM, with a huge chop on their shoulder we could maybe just maybe win the EAST???????

Pork chop or Lamb chop?:crazy:
 
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#20
#20
I want to hear from you if you have some honest reasons that can stand up under scrutiny, as opposed to just hopeful optimism.

Playing devil's advocate for the moment, consider the following.
OK. I'm sometimes accused of being a "nega" for being realistic but I'll play.

We have an offensive coordinator who has never called plays during a game before.
IIRC, that's not true.

That is a pretty high bar for Scott to follow with a new quarterback.
No. Not really. This is the University of Tennessee. The bar should always be high in relation to other programs.

Our probable starting quarterback had some nice throws last year when he had a chance to play, but did the other aspects of his game excite you? How much better will he be this year with the total package of being a QB? How much has he benefited from Coach Canales?
Yeah. Both guys make me hopeful. They are more accurate than Dobbs and can make big plays with their arms. Both seem to do well with timing passes and put the ball into small windows. We will see the best arm since Bray at QB this fall.

I REALLY like QD's management of the offense and the game. He's a controlled personality which usually plays well if you can put some playmakers around that QB.

Why do you think our defense will be one of the better ones in the SEC, if you think that? Are there real reasons that our defense should be, say, in the top five in the SEC? I think there could be a significant fall-off between the starters and the 2nd string on defense.
Does our 2nd string give us a chance to compete, since games are often won or lost because of the backups?
Have you looked at other team's defenses and compared them with ours?
If they stay healthy then they'll be a good D and maybe better. Probably the deepest D Jones has had.

This late into fall practice, it seems they are still looking for someone to step up at cornerback. Justin Martin has had a good camp, from what I hear. But we need four people who can play.
Not sure what reports you've been listening to. I've heard positive reports on 6 or 7 guys who are competing for playing time... and just because Wiggins isn't being talked about doesn't mean he won't factor in.

With the questions about the offensive line coming out of practice, is there more reason for confidence than just saying that they should be better this year?
Calm down. I've been here for 11 years and following the Vols pretty closely for longer than that. Every year... you hear the same thing... whether the OL turns out to be good or bad. The biggest issue is health.

Until they start playing, we really don't know how good our wide receivers will be apart from Jennings. And we need six good ones, not one good one. Do we have them?
There are four that I would count as known commodities- Jennings, Johnson, Byrd, and Smith. You're right. Two more out of the rest need to show up. If not, UT will probably run more with 2 and 3 TE's to create some match up issues. That's something you can do with a QB that can be trusted to consistently deliver accurate passes in the middle of the field.

I think we have a lot of uncertainty about the running back position behind our starter.
Normal cycle that most programs go through. Don't sweat it. Generally speaking RB is one of the easier positions to transition from HS to CFB. UT has talent behind Kelly. One of the keys will be Kelly's ball security.
Who are the dominant players on our team that create mismatches with other teams' players? Is there anyone right now--not will there be by December--but right now, who you would consider a top five player at his position in the SEC? I can think of two. Evan Berry and Trevor Daniel.
Jennings is the most physical WR in the SEC. That's not to be discounted. IMO, he certainly has a good shot at being a top 5 receiver this year. Because he's a ball distributor, I think QD has a really good chance to be in the top 5 in the SEC this year.

Is there any position group for the Vols that you would consider to be top five in the SEC? Most preseason magazines don't seem to think so. But they could be wrong.
Depends on whether they play to potential or not. I would say even right now that UT's safeties are a top five group.

I'll be honest. I think Georgia on paper may have fewer question marks than we do.
True.
I also don't think Florida will be as bad as some of you think they will be.
IMHO, I think they are worse than most people think right now. I don't think they can replace the defensive production with what they have coming back and do not believe their O will take the giant leap forward that some do.



Here's the "skinny" IMO. UT doesn't match Bama at this point. It would be a significant upset as we look from this point if UT won that game. UT has a clear talent advantage over 8 opponents.

As much as I loath to ever agree with LawGator... He's right. The season comes down to those 3 relatively even match ups. UT is back when they start winning MORE than their share of those.
 
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#21
#21
We will definitely win one of UGA, FL, or LSU then lose one of UK, Mizoo, or Scar. Bank.
 
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#23
#23
Middle of the pack in the East. If you look at any unit comparisons we will be average. Hope not but I don't see a lot of difference makers especially on offence.
 
#24
#24
I think Alabamas offense takes a step back this season. I'm not sold that Brian Daboll is going to be a great hire at Alabama. Lane Kiffin...for all that he lacks as a decent human....is one hell of an offensive coordinator. To me, Nick Saban basically just grabbed a "yes man". Even at a team like Alabama, a bad assistant hire could mess up team chemistry a good bit. It's fairly hard to read Nick Saban. He has a good poker face. But I don't get the impression he is overly confident in this particular years Bama team. Hopefully they beat FSU, otherwise Saban will ride those players asses into the dirt before he loses another game the rest of the season.

Georgia still doesn't have an O-line. From what I have been reading and seeing their fans say, it's actually quite bad. Apparently in their scrimmage it was pretty bad and they are having to reshuffle their lineup. Their defense looks legit. Return a lot of guys. No big questions marks. I think they struggle with App st like we did last season. Plus I'm sure they see that as a "gimme" game a week before heading to Notre Dame. Brian Kelly is coaching for his job this season too.

I'm just not sold on Florida at all this season. No clear leader at QB. Players being suspended and looking distracted. Relying on freshmen Dbacks. Linebacker depth is thin. O line is still an unknown. OT depth is questionable. Sliding DEs to the interior line. All of that....aren't things you see going on inside of teams that are well organized.

I see the East looking like a big rebuild this season. im ready for the season to start man. Lolol
 
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#25
#25
I too am optimistic that we can go 10-2 ( losing to UF and BAMA). Also a realist and that seems out of the reach of Butch for some reason feel he is going to fire a couple of blanks and lose a close games to LSU or UGA.

BUT.... if we come out and play as a TEAM, with a huge chop on their shoulder we could maybe just maybe win the EAST???????

It is no crime to lose a close game to LSU or UGA. Or UF either for that matter. In reality, if Butch can just go 2-1 against UF, LSU and UGA, then it could be a really good season.

To suggest those are gimme games, though, is just not living in the real world.
 
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