Latest ESPN FPI has Vols favorites in nine games

[Freak]

Thoughts?

Georgia Tech (W) 68.5%
Indiana State (W) 98.9%
Florida (L) 37.9%
Massachusetts (W) 97.4%
Georgia (W) 51.3%
South Carolina (W) 75.7%
Alabama (L) 13.5%
Kentucky (W) 60.0%
Southern Mississippi (W) 96.1%
Missouri (W) 64.3%
LSU (L) 40.5%
Vanderbilt (W) 81.1%

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Seems about right to me, though I would put both Georgia and LSU games into the "too close to call, pick'em" category. Think we just might break our losing streak to the SEC-West this season.

Would really love to extend our streak on Florida, but it's always a tall order to go into the Swamp and get a W.

 

[chuckb1448]

We really do not need to lose to both Florida AND Alabama! Someone figure out how to trade a W and an L in there somewhere.

 

[VOLINVONORE]

We really do not need to lose to both Florida AND Alabama! Someone figure out how to trade a W and an L in there somewhere.

I think we beat LSU.

 

[Titan&Volfan4life]

While I'd love to beat LSWho and get a WIN against them I'd much rather get a WIN over floriDUHH and WIN the SEC East Championship.

I'd also love to go to HOTlanta and get the WIN against the West in the SEC Championship game.

That would mean much more than a WIN against the West in the regular season.

VFL...GBO!!!

 

[Roustabout]

The Georgia game is because it's at home. A healthy team, sure.
7 wins or 10 are both real possibilities based on a few factors. Injuries again being at the center.

 

[goldvol]

Thoughts?

Georgia Tech (W) 68.5%
Indiana State (W) 98.9%
Florida (L) 37.9%
Massachusetts (W) 97.4%
Georgia (W) 51.3%
South Carolina (W) 75.7%
Alabama (L) 13.5%
Kentucky (W) 60.0%
Southern Mississippi (W) 96.1%
Missouri (W) 64.3%
LSU (L) 40.5%
Vanderbilt (W) 81.1%

According to those probabilities, the probability of beating all 3 of GT, GA and uSCe is 26.6%

The odds of beating both Kentucky and Vanderbilt is 48.7%.

Gonna be a long year when we lose games our fanbase think we are "supposed" to win. ilot:

 

[K-town Vol Fan]

According to those probabilities, the probability of beating all 3 of GT, GA and uSCe is 26.6%

The odds of beating both Kentucky and Vanderbilt is 48.7%.

Gonna be a long year when we lose games our fanbase think we are "supposed" to win. ilot:

How did you come up with that

 

[goldvol]

How did you come up with that

The probability of both events occurring is the product of the 2 probabilities.

Just think about it like shooting free throws. You could be a 75% shooter from the free throw line, which is good. however, if you shoot 3 free throws, you are likely to miss 1 free throw, even though you are heavily favored in each individual shot.
0.75*0.75*0.75 = 0.42, or 42% to make 3 free throws in a row.

 

[orangeluvr]

We ain't losin' to no florida. Simple as dat. The problem with probabilities is improbabilities pop up to change outcomes. :crazy:

 

[golfballs]

Last year they had us favored in every game

 

[VFLCodyGBO]

The probability of both events occurring is the product of the 2 probabilities.

Just think about it like shooting free throws. You could be a 75% shooter from the free throw line, which is good. however, if you shoot 3 free throws, you are likely to miss 1 free throw, even though you are heavily favored in each individual shot.
0.75*0.75*0.75 = 0.42, or 42% to make 3 free throws in a row.

Typically when you use probability like that it's for x where x is done in a series and expected to yield Y%. Applying that to this doesn't transition well because they are unrelated events. I see why your doing but your method skews the probability a good bit.

 

[KINGSVOL]

Thoughts?

Georgia Tech (W) 68.5%
Indiana State (W) 98.9%
Florida (L) 37.9%
Massachusetts (W) 97.4%
Georgia (W) 51.3%
South Carolina (W) 75.7%
Alabama (L) 13.5%
Kentucky (W) 60.0%
Southern Mississippi (W) 96.1%
Missouri (W) 64.3%
LSU (L) 40.5%
Vanderbilt (W) 81.1%

IMHO, i think this is the low ceiling. We have enough veterans that were embarrassed by the SC and VANDY losses, so that won't happen again. Our TEAM KNOWS we can beat FL AND GA! KEY game that determines another good year or a GREAT YEAR; THE FL GAME. If we beat them in the swamp. This team will have confidence to beat ANYONE ON THE SCHEDULE!

GO VOLS!!!!

 

[Special Ed]

This is why they're called upsets.

 

[goldvol]

Typically when you use probability like that it's for x where x is done in a series and expected to yield Y%. Applying that to this doesn't transition well because they are unrelated events. I see why your doing but your method skews the probability a good bit.

I don't think it does, but I am open to discuss it. As an engineer, I've had enough math to get a basic understanding of probability.

So, feel free to enlighten me with your methodology for calculating the probability of beating Kentucky and Vanderbilt based on the probabilities given.

 

[Chilmonty]

Really believe it will come down to QB play and Injuries!

We had a VERY experienced and talented QB last year but injuries where Horrendous!

HOPEFULLY injuries will be Less impactfull. QB is the big ???? :blink:



.

 

[windrider]

According to those probabilities, the probability of beating all 3 of GT, GA and uSCe is 26.6%

The odds of beating both Kentucky and Vanderbilt is 48.7%.

Gonna be a long year when we lose games our fanbase think we are "supposed" to win. ilot:

When we talk about probabilities we must remember that the tangent of the probability is always in inverse order to the lateral perspective. That being said and applying this rule, if we take the tangent of 2 (the two games mentioned) and apply the lateral perspective plus the root of 2, the only thing we know for sure is what team to "root" for.

 

[mrorange211]

Thoughts?

Georgia Tech (W) 68.5%
Indiana State (W) 98.9%
Florida (L) 37.9%
Massachusetts (W) 97.4%
Georgia (W) 51.3%
South Carolina (W) 75.7%
Alabama (L) 13.5%
Kentucky (W) 60.0%
Southern Mississippi (W) 96.1%
Missouri (W) 64.3%
LSU (L) 40.5%
Vanderbilt (W) 81.1%

I think we win 2 of LSU, Bama, and FLA. My money is on stomping the dog$hit out of Florida in the swamp and squeaking by the Tigers in November. I think we are gonna be better than people think, especially our QB's.

 

[KBVol]

Looks about right. Then Jones does what Jones does and drops a game or 2 he shouldn't and we wind up 7-5 or 8-4 imo.

 

[IBlvNTmWrk]

I don't think it does, but I am open to discuss it. As an engineer, I've had enough math to get a basic understanding of probability.

So, feel free to enlighten me with your methodology for calculating the probability of beating Kentucky and Vanderbilt based on the probabilities given.

Then I'm assuming, by your logic, that you would also agree that the probability of us losing all 3 games to FL, UA, and LSU is only 32%.

 

[casetopia]

and yet no team has played a single down yet

 

[BeardedVol]

Really believe it will come down to QB play and Injuries!

We had a VERY experienced and talented QB last year but injuries where Horrendous!

HOPEFULLY injuries will be Less impactfull. QB is the big ???? :blink:



.

You don't think Oline development will have any impact? It was the single biggest factor in determining both play calling and offensive production in both 2015 and 2016. If the oline has not improved by extraordinary leaps and bounds, then the QB will need to be a good of a scrambler as Dobbs.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Last year they had us favored in every game

Nah, they didn't. 2016 pre-season FPI had us as underdogs against Bama, and roughly a pick'em vs A&M, Georgia and Florida, iirc. Something like that.

EDIT: Golfballs was right, I was wrong. They did favor us in every game, even Bama, as Yankee confirmed (below).

Then I'm assuming, by your logic, that you would also agree that the probability of us losing all 3 games to FL, UA, and LSU is only 32%.

That's exactly right. According to the FPI, there's a 68% chance that we will win at least one of those three games.

 

[volmandu]

According to those probabilities, the probability of beating all 3 of GT, GA and uSCe is 26.6%

The odds of beating both Kentucky and Vanderbilt is 48.7%.

Gonna be a long year when we lose games our fanbase think we are "supposed" to win. ilot:

While mathematically you are correct (multiplying probability of each individual events happening and getting probability for the all three events), I would argue these events would need a better predictive tool to guess probability of winning all 3 of GT, GA and USCe and/or Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Saying that there is a less than 50% chance we beat Kentucky and Vandy both is not a good predicting tool. I would take those odds and bet against it any day.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

While mathematically you are correct (multiplying probability of each individual events happening and getting probability for the all three events), I would argue these events would need a better predictive tool to guess probability of winning all 3 of GT, GA and USCe and/or Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Saying that there is a less than 50% chance we beat Kentucky and Vandy both is not a good predicting tool. I would take those odds and bet against it any day.

So you're saying at least some of the FPI's odds are whacked. I agree, esp. as concerns Kentucky. Don't see any way they have a 40% chance of beating us, this year or any year. That's what's throwing the Vandy-Ky combo off so much.