Talent, Returning Production, Experience, Coaching

#1
ChattaTNVol

ChattaTNVol

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#1
On December 7, 2012, Butch Jones was introduced as the head coach of the Tennessee Volunteers.

Talent, Experience, Returning Production, & Coaching all point to our advantages on the field this season.

2016 Team talent (247 Composite)

AL 941.34
TN 781.29
GA 780.48
AM 765.07
FL 730.11
SC 657.25
KY 630.47
VT 601.79
VD 590.43
MO 588.43
OH 327.57
AP 284.82
TT 42.37

Returning Production (implied change in net scoring margins from 2015) - Bill Connelly, Football Outsiders

TN 82% +6.3
GA 75% +4.1
AP 73% +3.6
VT 72% +3.3
VD 69% +2.7
AM 64% +0.9
MO 64% +0.5
AL 56% -1.5
KY 57% -1.8
FL 52% -3.0
SC 47% -4.6
OH 45% -5.6

TN Experience Ranking by Phil Steele

2014 #123
2015 # 58
2016 # 3

Ranking the Coaches by Athlon

1 - Nick Saban, AL
23 - Butch Jones, TN
30 - Jim McElwain, FL
33 - Justin Fuente, VT
37 - Kevin Sumlin, AM
54 - Kirby Smart, GA
67 - Scott Satterfield, AP
69 - Frank Solich, OH
79 - Will Muschamp, SC
83 - Mark Stoops, KY
84 - Derek Mason, VD
85 - Barry Odom, MO

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrs0J4KgkJw[/youtube]

Thanks Butch. :hi:
 
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#8
#8
Weird stat the Chuck Oliver gave on his show a few weeks ago. Of the past 10 National Champs 7 had first year starters at QB. So in recent history having a returning a stater isn't directly related to NC
 
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#9
#9
aaronvol said:
So, the talent gap between us and Bama is the same as us and Kentucky. Lovely.
Click to expand...

That gap primarily reflects that their depth is much better than ours - or anyone else's for that matter. No one is in their league in that regard. It's what happens when you have the consensus #1 recruiting class for so many years in a row.

There may however be a bit of comfort for everyone else in that the game generally only lasts 60 minutes and they can only have 11 men on the field at any given time. I think we can match up pretty well with those 11 on each side of the ball and about half of their 2nd team. They'd possibly destroy our 3rd team.
 
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#10
#10
Butch at 23...:crazy:...still have to prove it on the field in a big way. He'll get a big bump at the end of this championship season...:rock:

GO VOLS!
 
#11
#11
aaronvol said:
in all seriousness...do you have last year's numbers. that would be interesting to see.
Click to expand...

247 just started the team ranking this year and they don't have prior years populated with data yet. Supposedly, they will eventually go back to 2000 though I don't know how much of an investment that is for them. They scrub the rosters to account for attrition and such so I think they have clean numbers for this year but it may be quite an effort to generate the historical rankings.

I think everybody recognizes that we started from the bottom and I mean bottom. We were borderline academically eligible. The culture probably couldn't have gotten much worse. There was almost no real quality leadership on the team.

Most other good programs, like GA, FL, MI, AU, etc. have had talented rosters that new coaching staffs inherit. We pretty much started from scratch with the 2014 class and still have a ways to go to sustain the program's recovery. That said though, it doesn't diminish in my mind how far we have come since Butch's first real signing day. jmo.
 
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#12
#12
So, according to Bill Connelly's "implied change in net scoring margin," Butch has found those 25 points he's been looking for...and then some.
 
#13
#13
bigdaddy said:
Weird stat the Chuck Oliver gave on his show a few weeks ago. Of the past 10 National Champs 7 had first year starters at QB. So in recent history having a returning a stater isn't directly related to NC
Click to expand...


So we should start Dormady or JG to have any shot at a natty......I'm on board.
 
#14
#14
fade route said:
So we should start Dormady or JG to have any shot at a natty......I'm on board.
Click to expand...

Nah, just found that an odd stat that had never sunk in. My thoughts are luck and good defense is what really gets you there. As far as stats go, def points allowed and points off turnovers are the most telling to me.
 
#15
#15
But fade, I am excited about our young guys at QB. It's been a long time since I could say we have solid QB depth.
 
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#16
#16
VOLywood said:
So, according to Bill Connelly's "implied change in net scoring margin," Butch has found those 25 points he's been looking for...and then some.
Click to expand...

I think that's probably true and I've seen separate analysis report from 2 other sources that indicate similar historical statistical results across all 128 teams based on returning production.

For example, ESPN's Team QBR rating on average increases +3.8 points for returning QBs. If Dobbs has average improvement he can match Prescott's TQBR for last year. While pundits and opinion writers may dismiss or downplay his potential for improvement, the guys who study the data are I think much more reluctant to go that route.
 
#17
#17
bigdaddy said:
Weird stat the Chuck Oliver gave on his show a few weeks ago. Of the past 10 National Champs 7 had first year starters at QB. So in recent history having a returning a stater isn't directly related to NC
Click to expand...

How many of those were true sophomores or freshmen?

Start you with Jameis Winston.
 
#21
#21
voldawgforever said:
I looked up "gets" and it showed a picture of Butch Jones snatching a recruit out of thin air.
Click to expand...

I looked up "it" in the dictionary, and it simply said "see Butch Jones"



I looked up "gets it" and it showed a picture of Butch Jones surrounded by Orange and White clad VOLS holding the National Champion trophy.
 
#22
#22
ChattaTNVol said:
247 just started the team ranking this year and they don't have prior years populated with data yet. Supposedly, they will eventually go back to 2000 though I don't know how much of an investment that is for them. They scrub the rosters to account for attrition and such so I think they have clean numbers for this year but it may be quite an effort to generate the historical rankings.

I think everybody recognizes that we started from the bottom and I mean bottom. We were borderline academically eligible. The culture probably couldn't have gotten much worse. There was almost no real quality leadership on the team.

Most other good programs, like GA, FL, MI, AU, etc. have had talented rosters that new coaching staffs inherit. We pretty much started from scratch with the 2014 class and still have a ways to go to sustain the program's recovery. That said though, it doesn't diminish in my mind how far we have come since Butch's first real signing day. jmo.
Click to expand...

How can you say that?!? According to some of our "fans" Butch should be fired because he Underachieves. LOL
Good stuff man. Thanks
 
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#23
#23
ReaderVol said:
How can you say that?!? According to some of our "fans" Butch should be fired because he Underachieves. LOL
Good stuff man. Thanks
Click to expand...

Don't get me wrong. During the season I'm an instant gratification man. I want to win and win now. It is never acceptable to lose. After the season is over and before the new season starts I'll be very understanding - but when it's football time in Tennessee - I'm as crazy as the best of our fans. :)
 
#24
#24
aaronvol said:
So, the talent gap between us and Bama is the same as us and Kentucky. Lovely.
Click to expand...

So the experience gap between us Kentucky and Bama is we're >25 points higher than both? GREAT!!!!
 
#25
#25
ChattaTNVol said:
Don't get me wrong. During the season I'm an instant gratification man. I want to win and win now. It is never acceptable to lose. After the season is over and before the new season starts I'll be very understanding - but when it's football time in Tennessee - I'm as crazy as the best of our fans. :)
Click to expand...

Nothing at all wrong with wanting to win, we all want to win. Just the knuckle heads calling for Butch's head relentlessly crying. The depth our team was down was historic and much worse than other big programs. Only the blind couldn't see that. We have indeed come a very long way.
 
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