2016 By the Numbers

#1
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daj2576

@aVolForLife
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#1
For those of you that are familiar with my work and our yearly discussions, I want to leave a little treat for you. I say little treat, because I found a small error that actually significantly changes my outlook on the season. To date, I have not discussed said outlook, but I want to point out something...

This will be the first time...

for as far back as the numbers go (2005)...

the numbers pick a win against FLORIDA!

1NCAA15.png

Boom.

2-jizz-pants.jpg

****DISCLAIMER****

The numbers still predict losses against UGA, Bama and aTm.
 
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#4
#4
Escape Goat said:
Why is Georgia and A&M ahead of us?

And Auburn??????????
Click to expand...

These are recruiting rankings. These numbers predict about 70% of all SEC games, all but one national champion since 2005, etc.

Those teams have recruited better than us for the preceding four years.

Go back far enough, like to the Auburn/FSU national championship game, and you'll find that I said then that Malzahn was a disaster waiting to happen, that his history against talent wasn't predictive of anything positive long term, but that Auburn was an insanely talented team (they were under Chizik, too). I was told I didn't know anything about football.

As I've said repeatedly, Butch has a history of significantly over-performing those numbers, but has trended slightly below them at UT. But, like his win totals are increasing every year, so is his accumulated talent, and he is cutting the under-performance in relation to talent. The trajectory at UT is upwards as most can see, but this year's recruiting class will be more important to Jones's long term stability on Rocky Top than his actual record (barring a disaster).

Just understand that for the first time since 2005 (as far back as my data takes me), the prediction of the annual UT v. Florida game has swapped from being a 70% chance of losing, to a 70% chance of winning.

Let that sink in for a minute. During our 11 year losing streak, these numbers never indicated UT should ever have more than a 30% chance to win.
 
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#8
#8
Anyone else seeing the glaring problem with this? Idk, like the results of 2005? Also known as the saddest year of my football life.

In seriousness that is interesting though. Thanks for posting.
 
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#9
#9
daj2576 said:
These are recruiting rankings. These numbers predict about 70% of all SEC games, all but one national champion since 2005, etc.

Those teams have recruited better than us for the preceding four years.

Go back far enough, like to the Auburn/FSU national championship game, and you'll find that I said then that Malzahn was a disaster
waiting to happen, that his history against
talent wasn't predictive of anything positive long term, but that Auburn was an insanely talented team (they were under Chizik, too). I was told I didn't know anything about football.

As I've said repeatedly, Butch has a history of
significantly over-performing those numbers,
but has trended slightly below them at UT (-2, -2, -1 games below predictions a season). But, like his win totals are increasing every year, so is his accumulated talent, and he is cutting the under-performance in relation to talent. The
trajectory at UT is upwards as most can see,
but this year's recruiting class will be more important to Jones's long term stability on Rocky Top than his actual record (barring a disaster).

Just understand that for the first time since
2005, the general prediction of the annual UT
v. Florida game has swapped from being a 70% chance of losing, to a 70% chance of winning.
Click to expand...
Great stuff as usual. Also, many here have said this will be our best class ever this year. So far it's following an all too glaring trend. Seems each class is lower ranked than the previous. I'm starting to get concerned. It's this year or never unless recruiting DRASTICALLY gets better
 
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#10
#10
Sorry but you must not have gotten the memo. Recruiting and talent don't matter.

The only reason we've lost to Florida is because the players are mentally weak.

Or so I've been told.
 
#16
#16
A&M has no QB. Not afraid of OU throw away in that game. No way we lose to A&M. I don't believe we lose to GA with a freshman QB. 10 - 2 or 11 - 1 this year
 
#17
#17
Spawn said:
A&M has no QB. Not afraid of OU throw away in that game. No way we lose to A&M. I don't believe we lose to GA with a freshman QB. 10 - 2 or 11 - 1 this year
Click to expand...

Two things.

1) you're over-valuing the QB
2) aTm/UGA is played at their house. Home field advantage is real. At best, we only have a 30% chance to win either of those games.
 
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#18
#18
Sumlin underperformed in wins compared to his recruiting averages, correct?
Smart has no record in his first head coaching gig. I wonder where the other head coaches from the Saban tree historically fall related to performance and recruiting.
 
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#19
#19
SayNoToJorts said:
Anyone else seeing the glaring problem with this? Idk, like the results of 2005? Also known as the saddest year of my football life.

In seriousness that is interesting though. Thanks for posting.
Click to expand...

2005 is just as far back as my data goes. Even in 2005 these numbers didn't predict a UT win.
 
#20
#20
McDad said:
Sumlin underperformed in wins compared to his recruiting averages, correct?
Smart has no record in his first head coaching gig. I wonder where the other head coaches from the Saban tree historically fall related to performance and recruiting.
Click to expand...

One of the things this analysis shows is that the vast majority of coaches perform very close to talent predictions. Similarly, most people conflate the impact of the two.

That said, the odds are that Kirby performs to talent (but, Richt did too. In fact, Richt was one of the most consistent and stable coaches in the SEC). See my analysis of Florida last year as an example of how people tend to put too much credence in coaching changes. Muschamp is just Dooley bad, in relation to talent, but he had far more talent so he won more games.

And yes, Sumlin is not impressive. That doesn't mean these evaluations change, especially considering the real effect of playing at their place.
 
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#21
#21
daj2576 said:
One of the things this analysis shows is that the vast majority of coaches perform very close to talent predictions. Similarly, most people conflate the impact of the two.

That said, the odds are that Kirby performs to talent (but, Richt did too. In fact, Richt was one of the most consistent and stable coaches in the SEC). See my analysis of Florida last year as an example of how people tend to put too much credence in coaching changes. Muschamp is just Dooley bad, in relation to talent, but he had far more talent so he won more games.
Click to expand...

Great work Daj
 
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#22
#22
daj2576 said:
Two things.

1) you're over-valuing the QB
2) aTm/UGA is played at their house. Home field advantage is real. At best, we only have a 30% chance to win either of those games.
Click to expand...

Strange, ever book I've looked at in Vegas has us with a significantly better percentage to win. Are you perhaps over-valuing home field advantage?

too much turmoil going on with A&M. We will tally up at the end of the year. Only loss is Alabama this year
 
#23
#23
Spawn said:
Strange, ever book I've looked at in Vegas has us with a significantly better percentage to win. Are you perhaps over-valuing home field advantage?

too much turmoil going on with A&M. We will tally up at the end of the year. Only loss is Alabama this year
Click to expand...

Strictly looking at recruiting undervalues some of our best players (Barnett, Sutton, Dobbs, JRM). I think that's the reason for the discrepancy
 
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#24
#24
captennmike said:
Methinks you are right. 10-2 with at least a split with FL/Bama will give CBJ the sizzle to pull in another good class.
Click to expand...

The truth is, as long as we're recruiting in the top 15, we're recruiting in national title territory. The problem is our conference is loaded with teams that recruit that well. If UT was in the ACC, B1G, or Big XII, you'd see a perennial title contender with Jones and his recruiting. Hell, if this was the 2005 SEC you could say the same thing.

For us to make strides in the modern SEC, we need to be averaging top ten recruiting, if not top 5.

Personally, I think success this year is a 3 loss regular season, a top 10 recruiting class, and a high profile bowl (preferably with another win). With luck we could certainly see an SEC champ game, but don't expect it. Missing that goal shouldn't be fatal to Jones given the trajectory were on, the state of the SEC, and where we've been in the not too distant past.
 
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#25
#25
daj2576 said:
The truth is, as long as we're recruiting in the top 15, we're recruiting in national title territory. The problem is our conference is loaded with teams that recruit that well. If UT was in the ACC, B1G, or Big XII, you'd see a perennial title contender with Jones and his recruiting. Hell, if this was the 2005 SEC you could say the same thing.

For us to make strides in the modern SEC, we need to be averaging top ten recruiting, if not top 5.

Personally, I think success this year is a 3 loss regular season, a top 10 recruiting class, and a high profile bowl (preferably with another win). With luck we could certainly see an SEC champ game, but don't expect it. Missing that goal shouldn't be fatal to Jones given the trajectory were on, the state of the SEC, and where we've been in the not too distant past.
Click to expand...

I believe you've said before that you've found kickers to be more important than quarterbacks. What positions did you find to be the most important to success?
 
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