Derek Barnett vs Joey Bosa & How Barnett is the Most Underrated Player in My Lifetime

#1

Daloth

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#1
I warn everyone, this is a long one, so strap in if you want to see some down right video game level numbers about one of our players who I feel is one of the most underrated in the country in a very long time, even by his own fan base. I originally intended for this to be a very short comparison of Bosa and Barnett, but the more I delved into it and the D line position historically the more I began to see how special Barnett truly is, and the next thing I knew it was a couple hours later. I've broken this down into sections to make it shorter and easier to read.

The Premise
One of my friends from back home during the draft claimed that Barnett would not have been taken in even the third round this year if he were eligible (He's a notorious UT hater, an actual Texas fan) and while twitter was roasting him alive I looked up stats to compare for my own amusement and came across some numbers that are down right terrifying.

I chose to compare him originally to the highest defense end taken in this year's draft, Ohio State's Joey Bosa, who went #3 over all and was the highest defensive player taken over all as well. I've used all teams official pages as well as Sports Reference and CBS sports college for stats that follow. In instances where there are discrepancies I always took the higher number for all players involved. There is of course a chance I've screwed something up on any of these players, feel free to comment if I did or you notice something that is wrong as I've not got a friend to fact check me.

Barnett vs Bosa best individual season
This is Joey Bosa's best career year, statistically, OSU's title run year which was 15 games, the most you can possibly play currently:

39 solo tackles
16 assisted tackles
55 total tackles
21.5 tackles for loss
4 QB hurries
13.5 sacks
1 pass deflection
1 fumble recovery
4 forced fumbles

An excellent year by any metric, and that year he was a consensus All American and Big Ten Defensive Player of the year. He was also a consensus all american the following year with less tackles, tackles for loss, 8.5 less sacks, and far fewer total turnovers caused (though he did have an interception and a touchdown as well as doubling his career QB hurries and Pass deflections in one season.)

This is Barnett's best career year, his freshman year, which was 13 games:

47 Solo tackles
26 assisted tackles
73 total
20.5 tackles for loss
8 QB hurries
10 sacks
1 fumble recovery

For that year he was awarded all SEC Freshman honors.

Barnett vs Bosa Career and Barnett "Worst Case" 3rd year
Now, this isn't about biasness of awards, though it easily could be because here's where the truly crazy part comes in.

The following are Joey Bosa's career numbers through 38 games in the Big Ten, counting bowl games. Remember, he's a two time consensus All American, Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, and was the #3 overall draft pick this year.

101 Solo Tackles
47 assists
148 total
51 tackles for loss
24 QB hurries
26 sacks
6 pass deflections
1 interception
2 fumble recoveries
5 forced fumbles

These are Barnett's numbers through 26 games in the SEC and counting bowl games:

91 solo tackles
51 assisted tackles
142 total tackles
33 tackles for loss
15 QB hurries
20 sacks
1 pass deflection
2 fumble recoveries
1 forced fumble
1 safety

The two biggest things you'll notice here are that their stats are actually extremely similar, Bosa has 6 more tackles total, 6 more sacks, and 18 TFL more. Bosa has a big edge in total turnovers caused however at 8-3.

However... Joey Bosa has played in 12 more games than Derek Barnett. And most people would argue Bosa has been on much better teams and in a much easier conference.

If we give Barnett the bare minimum number of games you can play in the SEC, no bowl game, and let him average his worst year statistically in every category his career numbers end up looking like this:

133.5 solo tackles
73 assists
206.5 total tackles
45.5 TFL
23 QB hurries
28.5 sacks
2 pass deflections
3 fumble recoveries
2 forced fumbles
1 safety

This also doesn't account for Shoop's much more aggressive defensive style, the talent level of the entire team, or freak things that are nearly impossible to repeat (Bosa's interception for a touchdown for example or Barnett's 9 sacks in 8 games streak.)

As you can see, even if Barnett has the worst year he's ever had and we flounder and don't even make a bowl game he should end up with almost 60 MORE total tackles than Bosa's (Bosa's most in a year being 55, Barnett's FEWEST being 69), 2.5 more sacks, ~ 5 fewer tackles for loss, and 3 fewer total turnovers caused.

What these numbers show
I'm not sure most fans realize just how enormous Barnett's tackling load is for a DE. If these projections held up his numbers reflect nearly 10 more tackles in three years than if Bosa played four years at a two time all american, top 3 draft pick level... Against competition far more talented on average in nearly every way. And the craziest part about Barnett is the bulk of his sacks and TFL come against SEC play. He plays up to his competition and for big games repeatedly.

For an SEC comparison, Myles Garret has 40 fewer total tackles in the same exact time span, or effectively, 9 games worth for his best year's average. Barnett is 75% of a full season ahead of his SEC counterpart in total tackles.

Barnett VS other All Americans/First Rounders/Hall of Famers

Though I can't find specific stats on it, I believe Barnett leads the country in total tackles for a defensive linemen, as I've looked up stats for Shaq Lawson, Carl Nassib, A'Shawn Robinson, Andrew Billings, Robert Nkemdiche, and Sheldon Day. All have played at least THREE years and were first or second team AP All American D-linemen this past season and Barnett has more career tackles than all of them. Even more terrifying is Barnett has 1 more career tackle than Sheldon Day, who has played four years at Notre Dame and was a 4th round draft pick.

The only person I could find who had more tackles on the D line than Barnett is Deforest Buckner. However, he has played for four seasons at Oregon, started every game, and through three seasons he had just 5 more total tackles than Barnett. However, through Buckner's first two seasons he had 68 tackles combined, or 1 less than Barnett's worst year.

Historically it gets worse. Barnett has 40 more total tackles in 2 years than Dwight Freeney had in 4 at Syracuse, 76 more than Albert Haynesworth had in 3 years at Tennessee (as well as more TFL in one season than Haynesworth had Sacks and TFL combined for his career), 80 more than Mario Williams had in 3 years at North Carolina State, 52 more in the same number of games played as Terrell Suggs at Arizona State, and 28 more in the same number of games as Julius Peppers.

The only person who has put up the same kind of numbers as Barnett is Georgia's David Pollack, who in 4 years put up an insanely absurd 283 total tackles. He didn't play Defensive End until his sophomore season, so 37 of those tackles technically don't apply to the D line, but in his best year he put up 102 total tackles, 23.5 tackles for loss, 14 sacks, 2 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery, and 7 QB hurries. Pollack won SEC defensive player of the year and player of the year for that season and was a three time All American.

However, through their first two seasons Barnett has the edge in Tackles, tackles for loss, sacks, and QB hurries.

What all this means for Barnett and these Vols
Many of the player's above were can't miss prospects, both in high school and the pros, and they showed it by being All Americans, Players of the year in their respective conferences, top draft picks, and a few future Hall of Famers in the NFL. But, if guys like Joey Bosa are sure fire can't miss prospects in the NFL, then Derek Barnett is something else entirely.

He plays the position in a different way than most do these days, and very few ever have. He not only demands being held or double teamed constantly, he routinely wins those battles anyway. In fact, it's almost unfair how good he is at finding the ball, as he does so at the pace of a very good linebacker.

We're excited about our offense finally clicking under Dobbs/Hurd/Kamara's legs. We're excited about how good Shoop's track record is and what this defense can do this year. But we are in no way excited enough about what Derek Barnett has already done in his two years here, and having played tight end myself in high school and college, I for one am terrified for anyone who has to try and stop him. He doesn't get the attention he deserves nationally, or even in the SEC.

But, I can promise one thing; NFL scouts notice him. And if a guy of Joey Bosa's caliber went #3, then, statistically speaking, Barnett is good enough to be an over all #1 to the right team. It won't happen because QBs are what most teams want these days, but I'll take Barnett's future career over virtually any player who has come out last year or the next few years.

Barnett on Mt. Volmore
It's not that far fetched to say he may go down as the best d linemen Tennessee has ever had, as through two years he has 4 less tackles than Reggie White, but 10 more sacks and 22 more tackles for loss. If he stayed four years I'm not sure it would be a discussion, as he has already had more sacks in two years than Reggie had in three and more TFL in one season than Reggie had in his entire career here.

We're not watching a good, or even great, player. We may be watching a guy who deserves to be on the Mt. Rushmore of TN vol players next to Peyton, Reggie, and Berry. And the fact a player of this caliber is so unnoticed nation wide in this day and age is a travesty.

The most terrifying part about Barnett is his two years have been consistently greater than any other first two years of a defensive lineman I could find, and the one thing that EVERY great D lineman I researched had was one year that stood out among all the rest, similarly to NBA three point shooters throughout history. Pollack's 100 tackle/23TFL SEC player of the year run, Reggie's 100 tackle/15 sack SEC player of the year senior season (he also had a 95 tackle 8 sack Sophomore year, not too bad at all.)

Most of these players scaled linearly, going from 37 tackles at the fewest and a few sacks and up their freshman year to 100 tackles and 10+ sacks or 20+ TFL their break out year.

Barnett's WORST year has been 69 tackles, 10 sacks, and 12.5 TFL.

If his breakout year had the same percentage/production increase as Reggie or Pollack had it could potentially be in the realm of 115 tackles/17 sacks/25 TFL

Barnett is due for a year the likes of which college football has never seen.

Conclusion:
Now, just because everything I've found says he should have a historic year doesn't mean he will, after all Reggie and Pollack especially were not only once in a lifetime players but played 4 years. Reggie's breakout was his senior year, and though Pollack's was his sophomore year, he still put up 12.5 sacks and 17.5 TFL in his senior season.

There is no way Barnett stays for his senior year, as with the kind of number he's put up, as we can clearly see, he's on par with or ahead of multiple All Americans, first rounders, and Hall of Famers who have played at least 3 or 4 seasons to his two. He should end up being one of the best young NFL players in a while, regardless of the team he goes to.

But if he did pull a Peyton and stay all four years? Well, let's just say I hope you've all enjoyed this short essay on one of the most prolific players we've had in years, because if he stayed all four years? There would not be a person in the country who doesn't know his name.

But, if history is proven to be correct, that should happen this fall anyway.

:hi:
 
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#7
#7
Who are you and how can I hire you to win arguments for me?

Just a lowly college student. I'd argue for you for pizza and beer. Or for free if the other guy was a big enough douche or the topic was fun like this one is.
 
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#8
#8
Just a lowly college student. I'd argue for you for pizza and beer. Or for free if the other guy was a big enough douche or the topic was fun like this one is.

You're also arguing with a Texas fan.

Some people just can't be reasoned with.
 
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#10
#10
Just a lowly college student. I'd argue for you for pizza and beer. Or for free if the other guy was a big enough douche or the topic was fun like this one is.

Nice project but shouldn't you be studying for finals?
 
#11
#11
Nice project but shouldn't you be studying for finals?

When you've studied the same thing for hours upon hours you need breaks. Plus I happened to have two classes this semester where the finals were projects or papers that were already done or are just waiting to be turned in.
 
#12
#12
I know it's about the size of the fight in the dog and not the size of the dog in the fight, but that will be his only knock - his height. It's total BS and he has done nothing but prove that wrong.

Either way, that dog has a LOT of fight in him!
 
#13
#13
Barnett may need a banner year in 2016 for the Vols D to really hit their stride.....this could be the year
Go Vols



PS: I've learned through experience not to take anything for granted concerning Tennessee Football
 
#14
#14
I know it's about the size of the fight in the dog and not the size of the dog in the fight, but that will be his only knock - his height. It's total BS and he has done nothing but prove that wrong.

Either way, that dog has a LOT of fight in him!

Barnett's fight song! That works...
 
#15
#15
What's also scary is that we have potentially three 5 star players that could be alongside him on the defensive line this year in Kahlil, Shy and Kongbo. And depth. Lots and lots of depth.

Cool write up. Barnett definitely deserves more recognition than he gets. What a great player.
 
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#16
#16
Very good read. Thanks for the input OP. I love Barnett's motor. He's always battling and running down plays opposite of his side. I hope he has a huge year.
 
#17
#17
Derrick should copy and paste your comments into his NFL resume.

Most people don't recognize his numbers against the football greats at his position.

Good work!
 
#18
#18
When you've studied the same thing for hours upon hours you need breaks. Plus I happened to have two classes this semester where the finals were projects or papers that were already done or are just waiting to be turned in.

LOL. Just yanking your chain. Wish I had studied harder when I was in school, but hormones kept getting in the way:). Good luck to you in the future
 
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#20
#20
Will be a top 10 pick next year if he stays healthy and produces those kind of numbers. Kid is special
 
#21
#21
Damn op, I read every word. Excellent comparison. Now my bias might add, if Barnett didn't get mugged on every play, his sack total would go up substantially.
 
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#22
#22
In my mind, Barnett is way better than Bosa. Bosa seems to have a higher motor than Barnett though. As far as skillset, Barnett blows him away though. If Barnett could develop a killer instinct then look at folks. He should be a top 10 lock in the 2017 NFL draft if he just plays his game & even ups it a notch or two.
 
#23
#23
In my mind, Barnett is way better than Bosa. Bosa seems to have a higher motor than Barnett though. As far as skillset, Barnett blows him away though. If Barnett could develop a killer instinct then look at folks. He should be a top 10 lock in the 2017 NFL draft if he just plays his game & even ups it a notch or two.

Develop a killer instinct? I personally think it's the other way around. DB's killer instinct is good for a personal foul or close to one every game. I'm hoping he tempers that edge just slightly and continues to punish the hell out of the other guys right up to the line of playing dirty but not stepping over it.
 
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#24
#24
Develop a killer instinct? I personally think it's the other way around. DB's killer instinct is good for a personal foul or close to one every game. I'm hoping he tempers that edge just slightly and continues to punish the hell out of the other guys right up to the line of playing dirty but not stepping over it.

I don't see a killer instinct in him on the field most of the time. I do sometimes but certainly not all the time like you posted. I would have to say about half(50%) of the time. That's why I said he needed to take it up a notch or two with his drive. I see more drive from Vereen than I do from Barnett on the opposite side from him but Vereen is nowhere near the player of Barnett.
 
#25
#25
I'm too lazy to figure it out myself but since you got it going so well...how do these stats compare to Jadaveon Clowney....wasn't he the #1 pick a couple of years ago
 

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