Proof that we're on the rise

[GBO97]

CBJ has never once in his UT career had a worse point differential in a game than he had against the same team the previous year. He's had the same one twice, but never worse. Some of the losses have pissed us the hell off, no doubt, and I still have my concerns, but this is a definite, undeniable sign of progress. Also, this never existed with Dooley.

Edit: he has once now against UK but that's no big deal.

OU:
2014: -24
2015: -7
17 point improvement

UF:
2013: -14
2014: -1
2015: -1
13 point improvement

UGA:
2013: -3
2014: -3
2015: +7
10 point improvement +win

Bama:
2013: -35
2014: -14
2015: -5
30 point improvement

UK:
2013: +13
2014: +34
2015: +31
18 point improvement (slight regression this year that's honestly irrelevant)

SC:
2013: +2
2014: +3
2015: +3
1 point improvement (also we had no business winning in 13)

Mizzou:
2013: -28
2014: -8
2015: +11
31 point improvement +win

Vandy:
2013: -4
2014: +7
11 point improvement +win

UK probably bucks the trend (edit: it did) but I think the last three are pretty safe bets to follow it.

Butch has stayed solid thus far in beating UK and SC, has flipped the UGA, Mizzou and Vandy losing to winning, and only needs to get over the UF and Bama humps as it relates to our yearly rivalries. I'm confident that that will happen too.

But as for this year, all we have to do is beat teams we've already beaten, plus a team that lost to Vandy and hasn't found the end zone in 3 games. A loss would be very concerning, but If this data is any indication, we're likely looking at a clean sweep the rest of the way. GBO

Edit: Butch and team 119 have held serve, going 4-0 with only Vandy now remaining. Aside from a bit of a scare against SC, we haven't had any real difficulties either. Our record has gone from 3-4 at the time of OP to 7-4 now. Very encouraging.

That said, I think 2016 is put up or shut up time when it comes to ending long streaks of futility against our biggest rivals. My expectation is that team 120 can end at least one of the two horrid streaks.

 

[Volsfaninva917]

I think some of you will be surprised just how bad Kentucky is.

 

[salsahound]

The numbers don't lie. Good point and thanks.

 

[BigOrangeD]

Agree OP. I thought our guys played well yesterday except for Medley. He's terrible. The coaches coached a good game and had us in it the whole time. We were a couple of defensive plays away from winning that one.

 

[5FingerVolPunch]

I think some of you will be surprised just how bad Kentucky is.

Not me. I've already said it. Kentucky is not good. Maybe slightly improved, but still not good. Same story as last season. Easy 1st half of schedule, big boy football 2nd half of schedule. We're gonna steam roll them just like last season.

 

[Volsfaninva917]

Agree OP. I thought our guys played well yesterday except for Medley. He's terrible. The coaches coached a good game and had us in it the whole time. We were a couple of defensive plays away from winning that one.

Not sure whats going on with Medley this year but he has certainly hit a sophomore slump. He definitely has the leg strength so it has to be technique right?

 

[Volsfaninva917]

Not me. I've already said it. Kentucky is not good. Maybe slightly improved, but still not good. Same story as last season. Easy 1st half of schedule, big boy football 2nd half of schedule. We're gonna steam roll them just like last season.

They should have lost to EKU

 

[TAF]

"Holy Excuse Machine of Statistics, Batman!"

 

[UTK]

UF
2013: L
2014: L
2015: L

Bama:
2013: L
2014: L
2015: L

1 point or 30...L is an L

 

[GBO97]

I get it, an average coach would go 15-0 with this team and anything short of perfection is cause for firing.

I agree the UF loss was inexcusable and on Butch, but if this most recent Bama game doesn't illustrate how much progress he's made from where we started, I'm afraid you must be blind. We used to have nailbiters with South Alabama instead of real Alabama.

 

[UT-Rex]

This chart proves that we have -- brick by brick -- built a solid, strong record of moral losses in these type match-ups (only for consistent winners are there no moral victories; there are, however, moral losses for long-time or recently-consistent non-winners like where we've been).

Percentage/marginal-wise, we simply can't do any better in the moral loss column (I don't think, in 2016, you'll want to argue we lost to bama by only 2, vs 5 last year) -- the only option is to regress in moral loss, or simply win.

I'm ready for a season showing a few, actual moral victories on the record (a 10-2, 11-1 season with close lose or two) -- in other words, I'm ready for Butch to be able to say, legitimately, there are no moral losses.

We are 4-0 in moral losses.

 

[Cosmo]

The only game that gets me is the Arkansas game. Just felt like we let an inferior team beat us. Just didn't seem ready to play. That was the only game I saw a step back. Everything else, I agree with, it's just hard to swallow any loss.

 

[GBO97]

The only game that gets me is the Arkansas game. Just felt like we let an inferior team beat us. Just didn't seem ready to play. That was the only game I saw a step back. Everything else, I agree with, it's just hard to swallow any loss.

I do agree. I think our players were just kind of flat for that one, not sure why. The UF loss had some awful coaching decisions, but also doesn't look like nearly as bad of a loss in retrospect. OU is a good team and their loss to Texas was a fluke. We weren't given much of chance vs Bama and exceeded expectations.

IMO: UF was coaching, Arky was players, OU was 50% of each, and Bama was just them being the better, more experienced team (+ Medley).

 

[GBO97]

This chart proves that we have -- brick by brick -- built a solid, strong record of moral losses in these type match-ups (only for consistent winners are there no moral victories; there are, however, moral losses for long-time or recently-consistent non-winners like where we've been).

Percentage/marginal-wise, we simply can't do any better in the moral loss column (I don't think, in 2016, you'll want to argue we lost to bama by only 2, vs 5 last year) -- the only option is to regress in moral loss, or simply win.

I'm ready for a season showing a few, actual moral victories on the record (a 10-2, 11-1 season with close lose or two) -- in other words, I'm ready for Butch to be able to say, legitimately, there are no moral losses.

We are 4-0 in moral losses.

This is the first game this season even remotely close to a moral victory. The season you say you're ready for should be 2016. If it's not, I'll have to seriously reevaluate my position on Butch. But right now it's apparent that we're right on the brink of being a true contender.

 

[fade route]

OP is forgetting that We played OU at home, which is always worth a few points, and UF, UGA, Bama, and Mizzou are worse this year than they were last year or previous years so not sold on his premise.

Edit: I will concede UF is probably better this year under McElwain than last year, but still stand by my point.

 

[DCompagnucci]

UT has lost 20 straight, 20 straight to UF and Bama! They have a losing record after 7 games, in a season where many had them favored to win the SECe. And the current head coach is 15-17 at Tennessee. If that's a program "on the rise," I'd hate to see it on the decline.

 

[GVol1966]

UF
2013: L
2014: L
2015: L

Bama:
2013: L
2014: L
2015: L

1 point or 30...L is an L

We lost by 5 yesterday, but we threw 3 right to Bama DB,s that should of been intercepted, if they did like they did against A&m we could of lost by 30, so i am not so sure we are that much improved, Some yes, but not as much as the score might indicate.

 

[General Jack]

"Holy Excuse Machine of Statistics, Batman!"

Compelling argument chief, impressive work.

 

[IPleadInsanity]

Stats show nothing about next season. I wish Butch had 1 more quality win this season, instead of 4 close losses, to take the pressure off next year. I do think having a field goal kicker that can actually kick a field goal would be prudent. A kicker should make all of them from 30 yards in and 1/2 of them from 50. This guy had 4 tries, hit the goal post and the others were not even close. Butch is always talking about the little things required to win and he whiffs on this huge part of the team.

 

[5FingerVolPunch]

Tennessee Shows It's on the Right Track in Close Loss to Alabama | Bleacher Report

Some positive press

 

[volinSmyrna]

Thank you for showing the numbers for what I have been saying all along. Winning is a process. You have to get over losing big, then you start losing small, then you start winning small, before you start winning big. So many people want to skip steps in the process, but where we were as a program it was not possible. Losing sucks....I'll be the first to admit that, but we are on the right track and wins are coming. I'm just glad to finally see some cracks in the fog from the last 10 seasons.

 

[JohnMcA60]

I like to see the improvement but next year is he year. We will lose some, not many, seniors and we need to capitalize on the seniors, juniors and sophomores who are talented. Butch will have no excuses for not getting into the SEC championship game next year in my eyes. Win out this season and take that momentum into 2016 and have a good year and I'll be fully behind Butch. If we go 7-5 next year then Butch needs to go.

Improvement is nice but it needs to continue and next we need to win the close ones instead of losing them. Go Vols.

 

[tn4elvis]

I get it, an average coach would go 15-0 with this team and anything short of perfection is cause for firing.

I agree the UF loss was inexcusable and on Butch, but if this most recent Bama game doesn't illustrate how much progress he's made from where we started, I'm afraid you must be blind. We used to have nailbiters with South Alabama instead of real Alabama.

The UF loss is not on Butch.Players make plays.We did not make them.In both the Ok game and Fl.game.We make open field tackles we win.We make 75% of our fg we win.The only game I would lay on Butch and the coaches is Ark.We didn't look motivated and ready to play.

 

[sanddune50]

UF
2013: L
2014: L
2015: L

Bama:
2013: L
2014: L
2015: L

1 point or 30...L is an L

You really are a simpleton aren't you?

 

[sanddune50]

We lost by 5 yesterday, but we threw 3 right to Bama DB,s that should of been intercepted, if they did like they did against A&m we could of lost by 30, so i am not so sure we are that much improved, Some yes, but not as much as the score might indicate.

Lame argument. Cherry picking plays that didn't happen is about the most illogical tactic a person can use when gauging improvement. By that rationale we should have beat Florida and Oklahoma due to balls that hit our DBs in their hands but were dropped.