Dick Vermeil's acutal two point conversion chart

#4
#4
Maybe Butch got his cells misaligned when he created his Excel file.......
 
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#5
#5
There are more updated charts that factor in time remaining. It's generally not a good idea to go for 2 until later in the game.

None of which means Butch didn't make a bad decision. He did.

Like the guy above me said...moving on. :hi:
 
#7
#7
I want to think ESPN did an analytic thing themselves and found that, in that particular game, a field goal gave us a 0.5% better chance to win or something minuscule like that. If that's the truth (though no chance in hell they knew that from their "analytic cheat sheet" that they keep referencing) then I don't see a problem with the call.

However, that's the point where, in 50/50 situations or odds don't change much, common sense should take over. Unfortunately, it seems Butch needs a common sense coach and not a sleep coach.
 
#8
#8
Daloth said:
I want to think ESPN did an analytic thing themselves and found that, in that particular game, a field goal gave us a 0.5% better chance to win or something minuscule like that. If that's the truth (though no chance in hell they knew that from their "analytic cheat sheet" that they keep referencing) then I don't see a problem with the call.

However, that's the point where, in 50/50 situations or odds don't change much, common sense should take over. Unfortunately, it seems Butch needs a common sense coach and not a sleep coach.
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Fwiw..... With 10 minutes left, the analytics chart says go for 2 if you think your odds are better than about 1/4.
 
#9
#9
GAVol said:
Fwiw..... With 10 minutes left, the analytics chart says go for 2 if you think your odds are better than about 1/4.
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Yep, and the common sense coach would say we just ran it down their throat on this drive no way they stop us getting 2 more yards
 
#10
#10
All of you couch qbs crying forca two point conversion there, what makes you think debord and jones have a play dialed up to get a successful conversion? Chances are it would have failed and the momentum would have swung even more to the gators. Lets take that into consideration please.
 
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#11
#11
BanditVol said:
There are more updated charts that factor in time remaining. It's generally not a good idea to go for 2 until later in the game.

None of which means Butch didn't make a bad decision. He did.

Like the guy above me said...moving on. :hi:
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We chose to kick an extra point rather than go for 2 in the 4th quarter, 10 or so minutes to play. Also, I'm not sure why that chart would require an update....the math is the math no matter what point in the game it was IMO.
 
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#12
#12
bignewt said:
All of you couch qbs crying forca two point conversion there, what makes you think debord and jones have a play dialed up to get a successful conversion? Chances are it would have failed and the momentum would have swung even more to the gators. Lets take that into consideration please.
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This is pretty stupid. Debord and Jones are responsible for our offense. if they don't have at least a couple 2 pt conversion plays gameplanned then they are not doing their job. I think the reason we didn't go for 2 was because they weren't even expecting them to score on that Hurd run. They were ready for a field goal.

And what the hell do you mean "it would have swung momentum more to the gators?" THEY ENDED UP WINNING ANYWAY

the people on this site sometimes
 
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#13
#13
In the Cincinnati thread on here now I saw where a poster on the Bearcats message board said Butch wanted to go for two, but then asked DeBord if he wanted to go for 2 and DeBord is the one that settled for the PAT.

I didn't believe it at first, until I saw this picture:

Butch Jones 2.jpg

So basically, Butch isn't as insanely conservative as I thought he was... But, the fact that he asked DeBord makes me wonder what the hell he's thinking in the first place... He's the HC, HE should make the big decisions no matter what DeBord or anyone else says.

But, as a lot of guys on this board have said... DeBord is going to be Butch's Sal Sunseri. I'm convinced of that now. Also, I'm now a full believer that the whole "chart" thing is Butch's way of covering DeBord.

Also, here is what some Michigan fans said on Tennessee's hire of DeBord when it took place in February:

DeBord.png

They warn us about overly conservative play calling and wasting talent. All that sounds oddly familiar, doesn't it?
 
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#14
#14
bignewt said:
All of you couch qbs crying forca two point conversion there, what makes you think debord and jones have a play dialed up to get a successful conversion? Chances are it would have failed and the momentum would have swung even more to the gators. Lets take that into consideration please.
Click to expand...

Because it's common sense. With that touchdown it became a 12 point game. You go for 2 to make a 14 point game because if Florida does score late in the 4th you don't lose the game by 1 but either drive and kick the field goal to win or go into overtime. But since Butch was playing to kick the field goal on 3rd and 5 he had he and DeBord had no idea what to do but go for 1. A good head coach or OC is always 1 to 3 plays ahead of that current play. For some reason DeBord never is.
 
#15
#15
Its pretty much confirmed that Butch asked DeBord should they go for 2 or not. Butch should had known right then and there that they had to go for 2.
 

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#16
#16
If this true, then Jones is either a flat out liar (Said his "sheet" says go for extra point there) or a poor leader by deferring to a subordinate to make the decision. Either way it was the wrong decision and reflects very poorly on him.
 
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#17
#17
KBVol said:
If this true, then Jones is either a flat out liar (Said his "sheet" says go for extra point there) or a poor leader by deferring to a subordinate to make the decision. Either way it was the wrong decision and reflects very poorly on him.
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Agreed. When he defends the indefensible as he has done many times since he arrived; he is fabricating the truth, which is deception, which is a lie.
 
#18
#18
KBVol said:
If this true, then Jones is either a flat out liar (Said his "sheet" says go for extra point there) or a poor leader by deferring to a subordinate to make the decision. Either way it was the wrong decision and reflects very poorly on him.
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Devil's advocate here:

Butch: Mike, do we go for two or one?

MD: (looks down on the sheet) one, Butch

Technically he didn't lie. Its the same sheet they both work from.

I understand what you say but there's a little grey area
 
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#19
#19
If it was deferred to Debord and it was passed, the only reason I can see this being the case is if Debord didn't have a 2pt play at the ready...he wasn't prepared for this scenario.
 
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#20
#20
Vols4us said:
Agreed. When he defends the indefensible as he has done many times since he arrived; he is fabricating the truth, which is deception, which is a lie.
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There's no way Butch just flat out delegates a decision like that. They discussed it like coaches always do. They looked at the numbers. He decided to kick it. Up 13 with 10 minutes to go, it shouldn't have slightly mattered.
 
#22
#22
If Butch chooses to put his career interests and the teams interests in a broken down plow horse he will reap the consequences. Boy not using playmakers as a history gives me a stomach ache for real.
 
#23
#23
I can almost guarantee that either debord didnt have a play ready or he didnt have one that he thought would succeed.
 
#25
#25
bignewt said:
All of you couch qbs crying forca two point conversion there, what makes you think debord and jones have a play dialed up to get a successful conversion? Chances are it would have failed and the momentum would have swung even more to the gators. Lets take that into consideration please.
Click to expand...

It's. Their. Job.
 
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