Why Predicting 7-5 in 2015 is Defeatist

[VFL-82-JP]

Some on VolNation predict Team 119 will win 7 regular season games, and believe that is "acceptable improvement." Others call them defeatist. They ask why. Here's the answer.

~ ~ ~​

In 2014, the Offensive Line was terribad. This year, they will be better. We don't know how much better, but Robertson and Kerbyson and Crowder and Kendrick and Wiesman and Thomas are all a year older, a year more experienced, and a year more developed. On top of them, we have new talent in Jones, Mosley, Hall, Boulware, and Richmond that will be able to contribute and 'raise the game' of the line over time as the season unfolds. Jones is ready now. Mosley is close. The others will follow. This line is still the biggest question mark of the team, but it's better in 2015.

In 2014, Jalen Hurd ran and caught the ball for 1,120 yards. This year, he's stronger and just as fast. In 2014, he had Marlin Lane helping. In 2015, he has Alvin Kamara. The running game will ramp up considerably this fall. Expect two 1,000 yard runners sharing the backfield.

In 2014, Josh Dobbs passed for 1,206 yards and ran for 469, all in six games. Extrapolate to 12, and he's a ~2,500 yard passer, ~900 yard runner. And that's before he shows one iota of improvement. But we know he has improved in his throwing game this off-season, considerably. Look for 3,000 passing and 1,000 running from our QB in 2015.

Of those 3,000 passing yards, last year the heaviest share went to our underneath receivers. This year, look for more big plays from the x- and z- crowd: North, Malone, Smith, even a talented freshman or two in Jennings and Williams. The big play potential is up in 2015.

~ ~ ~​

Last year's defense was thin on DLine, esp. at the tackle position. Solid players, but gassed by the 4th quarter. That won't happen with Team 119, who have five DTs to cover the two spots, and a stable full of playmakers at DE. Cap them with a LB corps including JRM and Curt Maggitt (when he's not in a 3-point stance), as well as newly discovered diamonds at MLB, Jumper and Kirkland...this run defense will be more stout than the 2014 version.

As for pass defense, even with the loss of LaDarrell McNeil and Rashaan Gaulden, there is simply too much talent to expect anything less than an exceptional year. Cam Sutton can shut down every opponent's best receiver, and most of our opponents only have one. But Cam's not alone, with Brian Randolph, TK Jr, and Evan Berry providing top cover while Malik Foreman, Emmanuel Moseley, and a trio of talented new blood--Martin, Abernathy, and Miller--help Cam out on the other side, or wherever he is not. This is a smothering blanket of a pass defense that is also very skilled at helping squelch the run game.

~ ~ ~​

Special teams? Aaron Medley is the superstar, but has plenty of help from dependable punters and a stable of talented punt and kick returners.

~ ~ ~​

Now, you knew all that but maybe didn't think it through quite so thoroughly. But that's just the first step of this argument.

Next, gotta look at how we did last year: 6-6 regular season, yes...but within a hair of beating both Georgia and Florida...a fine frog's hair. Wouldn't have taken much at all for 2014 to have ended 8-4 by early December.

We much more than a fine frog's hair better in 2015. A lot more than that. And we have an easier schedule. Florida's weaker, South Carolina is weaker, Mizzou is weaker, and we get Oklahoma at home. Arkansas is more one-dimensional than Ole Miss was in 2014. Not only should we be able to match the nearly 8-4 mark of 2014, we should be able to surpass it, given the easing of the schedule.

In fact, I would go so far as to call a 9-3 result with that 2015 calendar "on par" with the almost-8-4 outcome of 2014. On. Par.

~ ~ ~​

So yes, it is defeatist to think that 7-5 by Team 119 represents improvement. They are simply far...far...far better than that.

Go Vols!

 

[BACKDOC]

Schedule has a lot to do with it also; getting OU and Ark. at home are huge. Not playing Miss. Auburn, Tx. AM helps too.

 

[KingtUT]

Dont forget we were within a hair of losing to SCar. IMO you cant look at the ones we almost won and forget about the one we barely won. I agree we are better than 7-5 but i disagree that we are "far,far,far" better. I see anywhere from 7 to 10 wins depending on which way the ball bounces. My money is on 9-3 and let me say the three loses arent to UGA, Bama, and Ok. We win at least one of those games!

 

[Give_All_Vol]

Dont forget we were within a hair of losing to SCar. IMO you cant look at the ones we almost won and forget about the one we barely won. I agree we are better than 7-5 but i disagree that we are "far,far,far" better. I see anywhere from 7 to 10 wins depending on which way the ball bounces.

Very true but did you see them last night? I'm really confident we are far better than that. SCar probably is better than what they showed last night but I can't see where there was a lick of improvement on their end so far

 

[Boca Vol]

Dont forget we were within a hair of losing to SCar. IMO you cant look at the ones we almost won and forget about the one we barely won. I agree we are better than 7-5 but i disagree that we are "far,far,far" better. I see anywhere from 7 to 10 wins depending on which way the ball bounces. My money is on 9-3 and let me say the three loses arent to UGA, Bama, and Ok. We win at least one of those games!

Great post.

Last season UT closed the gap a little. Now, it's time to turn some of those losses into wins (UGA, UF, Mizzou, OU). UT doesn't need to win them all, but they need to start winning some of those games.

 

[UT_King]

If we go 7-5, we lost to everyone that matters. Unless we have key injuries, i expect better. Period.

 

[Gandalf]

I could agree with you except for one word - INJURIES. Our depth is getting better but still not so deep as to withstand too many more season ending injuries.

And Dobbs has unquestionably improved by a lot - probably the best QB in the SEC right now. But the numbers he did last year were against our weakest opponents (except for the SCjr game). If Dobbs goes down early in season, even tho we have a lot of young QB talent, all predictions get thrown out the window.

 

[Aerie Vol]

I'll go on record with this, OP:

There is absolutely NO WAY Dobbs runs for 1000. Further, if that were to happen, it only means our team is completely hosed. Injuries to Hurd AND Kamara would likely be the only thing that caused Butch to risk injury to Dobbs by letting him run that much.

Otherwise, solid post.

AV

 

[Iam4utalways]

We have passed other teams because we are moving foward and they are going backwards, we have caught up to all teams on our schedule including Bama, we will be competitive, and with a breaks that we make, there is no reason we can't destroy them in Tuscaloosa. We gonna beat the gators like a drum.
GO VOLS! WIN em ALL!

 

[Volunteer_Kirby]

If you're expecting Hurd & Kamara to each rush for 1,000 yards behind this offensive line, then you might want to tamper your expectations a bit....

Someone could make the argument that all these 10 win, SEC-E winner predictions are more detrimental than the 7-5 predictions. 7-5 would be a slight disappointment's and 8-4 would be par for the course with Butch Jones. Anything more is a pleasant surprise.

 

[Volunteer_Kirby]

I'll go on record with this, OP:

There is absolutely NO WAY Dobbs runs for 1000. Further, if that were to happen, it only means our team is completely hosed. Injuries to Hurd AND Kamara would likely be the only thing that caused Butch to risk injury to Dobbs by letting him run that much.

Otherwise, solid post.

AV

Didn't even see the part about Dobbs running for a thousand. By that logic we'd have around 3500 (assuming 500 yards extra from Pig, Young & our back up tail backs in mop-up duty) yards rushing, nearly 40% more production than last year.

Lol.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I'll go on record with this, OP:

There is absolutely NO WAY Dobbs runs for 1000. Further, if that were to happen, it only means our team is completely hosed. Injuries to Hurd AND Kamara would likely be the only thing that caused Butch to risk injury to Dobbs by letting him run that much.

Otherwise, solid post.

AV

Yeah, I started with an estimate of only 600+ yards. But then I went up. Here's why:

In 2014, all Josh's running yards came off three types of circumstances:

1. design QB run;
2. scrambling; and
3. opportunity (pass play, but Josh notices absolutely no defenders out in front of him for quite a ways)

And the design runs were not the most common reason for him to take off downfield.

So here's the thing: 2015 won't be any different. And it has nothing to do with how good our run game is going.

1. Butch & DeBord will throw in just enough design runs and keep-options by Josh to keep the defense worried about his legs. That's what they did last year, too;
2. the scrambles will come;
3. the opportunity runs will come.

In other words, Josh's running yards are just a part of who he is, as an athlete and quarterback. They're indivisible from him. They're what you get from him when he plays football.

So I pushed the number right back up where 2014 said it would go. And I think that's about right.

It's not that they're "risking" him...it's that he's just being Josh Dobbs.

Go Vols!

 

[fossilfiction]

Very true but did you see them last night? I'm really confident we are far better than that. SCar probably is better than what they showed last night but I can't see where there was a lick of improvement on their end so far

Their defense is better. I don't think they were great but they were better than last year. The second half defense was really pretty good. 4 sacks and 3 picks in a game is far better than at any point for them last year. Their offense looked bad but they will improve a lot before they play again.

 

[sjt18]

Agree with the conclusion and most of the points of the OP. I don't think Dobbs will run as much and especially if Kamara and Hurd are producing like that.

The other thing that was probably missed is the schedule. There are 5 should be built in wins. No real need to discuss them.

UT is closer to OU in talent and experience plus they have many unknowns due to coaching changes.

UF has a ton of problems and a coaching change. They have a good D but still with some thin spots. Their OL is a mess and they have no truly proven and great skill players.

Jones almost beat UGA twice while overcoming a fairly significant talent gap. That talent gap has closed and the game is in K'ville with high stakes.

Arkansas is a good team and like UT a trendy pick to make noise in the West. But IMO they may have approached their peak last year. UT had more room to improve and has. The game is in K'ville. From a strength of schedule perspective, they aren't as good as Ole Miss was last year. UT is better.

USCe is simply not a good football team if the UNC game was any indicator. It isn't just organizational or scheme things... they don't have very good talent in several positions.

Mizzou has huge questions too. People assume their DL will just reload. They shouldn't. Even Pinkel remarked about how much production they've lost there over the last two years. Their DL produced 38.5 sacks last fall. The total by players who return... is 4. They have no returning production at WR and only one proven RB. If UT had this roster, this board would have been in constant meltdown since January.

Don't take this as a prediction of a UT win... but Bama lost a ton. Yes, they reload because of their depth of talent and perennial recruiting success. But they will still depend on new players to step up. They are unsettled and surprisingly perhaps untalented at QB. UT for the first time in awhile has at least a "puncher's chance" at this one..


This schedule is easier than the one last year... this UT team is better than the one last year. That should be worth two more regular season W's.

 

[sjt18]

FWIW, UNC was the worst D in the ACC last year. Chizik might have made a difference but not THAT much. They allowed 30 ppg and almost 500 ypg in '14. USCe struggled to move the ball against them or score.

The way Vandy's D played last night... they might have beaten the USCe team that played yesterday.

 

[sjt18]

Their defense is better. I don't think they were great but they were better than last year. The second half defense was really pretty good. 4 sacks and 3 picks in a game is far better than at any point for them last year. Their offense looked bad but they will improve a lot before they play again.

You are very likely overestimating the opposition last night.

 

[66volfan]

Didn't even see the part about Dobbs running for a thousand. By that logic we'd have around 3500 (assuming 500 yards extra from Pig, Young & our back up tail backs in mop-up duty) yards rushing, nearly 40% more production than last year.

Lol.

And all these extra yds behind the biggest question mark we have, o-line. I'm on board with winning them all and think we have a punchers chance at it. Logic goes against it though. We've got a lot to prove.

 

[Give_All_Vol]

Their defense is better. I don't think they were great but they were better than last year. The second half defense was really pretty good. 4 sacks and 3 picks in a game is far better than at any point for them last year. Their offense looked bad but they will improve a lot before they play again.

Yeah the second half did look better on D. But still there was a minimum of two drives that should have ended in NC points of some kind. I don't know who to credit more for the pics. The D or the QB

 

[fossilfiction]

You are very likely overestimating the opposition last night.

I don't see how. I never stated that NC was world beaters. I am well aware of how bad their defense is. I was pleasantly surprised at how bad the SC offense looked against a bad defense. I watched several SC games last year and it is easy to see that they played better last night on defense. Missed tackles hurt them in the first half but to say they didn't improve a lick is simply not true. They were simply atrocious on defense last year. We will find out after a few more games if NC was that bad on offense or SC can field a decent defense.

 

[fossilfiction]

Yeah the second half did look better on D. But still there was a minimum of two drives that should have ended in NC points of some kind. I don't know who to credit more for the pics. The D or the QB

The passes were bad both times. Not sure why but the Williams continued to try and rifle the ball into the end zone with a 10 right infront of the receiver. SC was there to pick them off and the third pick was a really good play by SC.

 

[BeecherVol]

I don't see how. I never stated that NC was world beaters. I am well aware of how bad their defense is. I was pleasantly surprised at how bad the SC offense looked against a bad defense. I watched several SC games last year and it is easy to see that they played better last night on defense. Missed tackles hurt them in the first half but to say they didn't improve a lick is simply not true. They were simply atrocious on defense last year. We will find out after a few more games if NC was that bad on offense or SC can field a decent defense.

SCs D is better. Hard not to be. They'll still have some issues there just not as many.

Their offense is not better and I don't think it will be as good at last year. Cooper may get used up pretty quick, Im not sure if he can handle the ball that much and not get dinged up somewhere.

 

[BeecherVol]

The passes were bad both times. Not sure why but the Williams continued to try and rifle the ball into the end zone with a 10 right infront of the receiver. SC was there to pick them off and the third pick was a really good play by SC.

Both were similar to Vandy's QB last night. Terrible plays.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I was at the Vandy game last night (don't ask, long story about Vandy student daughters and encouraging more interest in college football...), and I gotta tell you. It honestly felt like I was at a high school game.

Vandy's players seemed no bigger than a good HS team's, even their linemen. Some of the Hilltopper guys seemed big, but none of Vandy's. And I am not exaggerating, I think our local HS players are faster than Vandy's. There was no SEC-level talent anywhere to be seen. This is not an SEC program...it's barely an FBS program.

It was pitiful. The only good parts of the whole experience were (1) my daughters had fun and learned some football, and (2) we were sitting right under the orange and white Tennessee flag (stadium has all the SEC flags flying along the upper rim).

I caught parts of the USCe-UNC game on screens...their offense looked hella bad, but their defense was opportunistic. Heck of a lot better than the Vandy team, offense or defense.

Go Vols!

 

[LittleCat]

I completely agree about the O-Line and RB spots being improved. Hurd put up fantastic numbers all year with a terrible group blocking for him. Another year in the program and an improved OL should go a long way. I wouldn't be shocked to see Hurd get 1500+ and Kamara somewhere between 800-1000. Hurd is one of the best backs in the nation imo.

I do question Dobbs however. He played the 3 worst scoring defenses in the league so his numbers are probably different if he plays other SEC teams. But he did good against Bama and Mizzou, two good groups. Credit to him, good players play well no matter who is in front of them. He deserves a lot of praise for what he did. I don't know if he is a Heisman darkhorse, but he is definitely a great player and exciting to watch.

Can't disagree defensively though. UT has put together one of the youngest and deepest teams in the country. They can't all come in and put up Derek Barnett type seasons, but many are already looking to contribute a lot. In another year or two this will one of the best defenses nationally. There is just so much talent and depth, and Butch continues to get impact recruits year after year.

The schedule is interesting to look at. UT has a great shot at winning all 4 OOC games. OU will challenge, but I think UT is really looking to get some revenge after last year. Shut down Perine (a big task), and you stand a good chance. The East has been down for a few years, and it somehow I think it got easier. UF, USCjr, Vandy are all the same or probably worse than last year. Year after year Mizzou manages to stay relevant but maybe this is the year they fall off a bit. They lost some big players, but who knows. They lost a lot in 2014 too. UK is the only team I think you could say is definitely improved, talent wise and experience. But UK still is going to struggle defensively and there is still a big gap between the teams UT and UK put out on the field. UT is ready to compete, and UK at best is still 2 or 3 years away. I'm pretty UGA will find a way to stumble a few times in the season. UT has been close the last few years, and UGA will go as far as their RBs take them. Best RB group in the nation probably, and a good defense, but we'll see Richt manage to still lose games.

 

[Give_All_Vol]

The passes were bad both times. Not sure why but the Williams continued to try and rifle the ball into the end zone with a 10 right infront of the receiver. SC was there to pick them off and the third pick was a really good play by SC.

I missed the third one so I really don't know. I do feel like I have to point out the back that had 12 carries for over 130 yards. I'll concede that there probably has been a lick of improvement on defense, but from what we've seen so far idk if it's much more than that