VFL-82-JP
Bleedin' Orange...
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2015
- Messages
- 19,653
- Likes
- 52,096
[Warning: Long Post]
Here's another look at schedule strengths, using this week's pre-season USAToday Coaches' Poll as the foundation.
In this comparison, include all 14 SEC schools, as well as all teams in the Top 12 of the USAToday pre-season rankings. That captures two teams from each of the other Power 5 conferences, as well as Notre Dame.
Measuring schedule strength two ways.
---------------------------------------------------------
First Method: counting up # of Top 25 opponents, plus half-points for # of opponents in the #26-#50 range (e.g., 3 Top-25 opponents plus one other foe ranked #26-50 = 3.5 points). Schedules with 3.5 points or fewer = very easy ... 4 or 4.5 points = easy ... 5 to 6 points = moderate ... 6.5 to 7 points = difficult, 7.5 points or higher = very difficult.
Using this method, Alabama has the only Very Difficult schedule, with a score of 8 points. That's seven (!!) Top-25 opponents (#7 Auburn, #9 Georgia, #13 LSU, #15 Ole Miss, #18 Wisconsin, #20 Arkansas, and #25 Vols), as well as two teams in the #26-50 range (#26 Miss St and #27 A&M).
Every other SEC team has a Moderate or Difficult schedule. Mizzou's score is the lowest, at 5 points (only 3 Top-25 opponents, plus 4 in the #26-50 range). The average SEC team has 5 Top-25 foes in 2015. The Vols' schedule is Moderate using this scale, with 5 Top-25 opponents (#3 Bama, #9 Georgia, #19 Oklahoma, #20 Arkansas, and #23 Mizzou), as well as two others in the #26-50 range (#36 USCe and #48 Florida).
Among the non-SEC Top 12 teams in the poll, USCw has the most difficult schedule, with a 6.5 score (0.5 points higher than the Vols). USC counts six Top-25 opponents (#5 Oregon, #11 ND, #14 UCLA, #16 Ariz St, #21 Stanford, and #22 Arizona), plus one in the #26-50 band (#30 Utah).
Clemson has the next toughest non-SEC schedule, at 5 points: three Top-25 foes (#8 FSU, #11 ND, and #17 Ga Tech), along with four in the #26-50 range.
All other teams in the Top 12 have Easy or Very Easy schedules. The easiest of them all is Ohio State's: 1 Top-25 opponent (#6 Mich St), with four other foes in the #26-50 range (#29 Va Tech, #34 Minnesota, #35 Penn State, and #39 Illinois). Next Easiest is Michigan State. The Big Ten is so depleted that any schedule in that conference is going to be hella weak.
---------------------------------------------------------
Second Method: averaging the ranking of the top six teams on each school's schedule. Why not average all 12 for each school? Because you can't get rankings for a lot of them, even counting down through the "Also getting points" part of the poll. There simply are a lot of schools that don't get a single point. Why only the six best? Because you can generally get an extended ranking for everyone on each team's list if you don't go any deeper than that. Plus, six is exactly half of the regular season total; seems like a good breaking point. Also, a "trash win" is a trash win, whether the team is ranked #90 or #120. Giving one team a leg up for the extra 30 positions of their #90 opponent doesn't help clarify matters in any way.
The range of results (for the SEC and Top 12 teams) runs from #12 avg rank to #32 avg rank. We'll band it this way: #29-32 = very easy, #25-28 = easy, #20-24 = moderate, #16-19 = difficult, and #12-15 = very difficult.
Using this method, Texas A&M has the most difficult schedule in the SEC. In the tougher half of their opponents the average ranking is #12. That's a lot of high-ranking teams they have to play. Their top six opponents include #3 Bama, #7 Auburn, #13 LSU, #15 Ole Miss, #16 Arizona State, and #20 Arkansas.
The SEC-West in general have gauntlets to run: Bama, Miss St, Arkansas, and Auburn also have Very Difficult schedules following this method, all with an average opponent ranking of #14 in the tougher half of their foes. Outside the SEC, the only team with this tough a schedule among the Top 12 is USCw: their avg is #15.
Again with this system, Ohio State has the easiest schedule among the Top 12, with an average high-six opponent ranking of #32 (that includes #6 Mich St, #29 Va Tech, #34 Minnesota, #35 Penn State, #39 Illinois, and #51 Maryland). Florida State ties with Ohio State for schedule ease using this method, their average is also #32 (#12 Clemson, #17 Ga Tech, #32 Louisville, #37 Miami, #45 NC State, and #48 Florida).
---------------------------------------------------------
Here's a chart summarizing all this in numbers and colors (from Easiest over to the Hardest). Bottom line is that being in the SEC is automatically brutal. But Mizzou finds a way to make their schedule as easy as possible, and USCw and Clemson have found ways to make theirs SEC-difficult.
Bottom line: SEC still the best, and toughest, conference in the US. The "we beat ourselves up and hurt our own chances of getting into the playoffs" argument is very real, and based on objective fact. The average SEC school has a schedule more difficult than any of the teams expected to finish in the Top 12, aside from USCw.
Go Vols!
Here's another look at schedule strengths, using this week's pre-season USAToday Coaches' Poll as the foundation.
In this comparison, include all 14 SEC schools, as well as all teams in the Top 12 of the USAToday pre-season rankings. That captures two teams from each of the other Power 5 conferences, as well as Notre Dame.
Measuring schedule strength two ways.
---------------------------------------------------------
First Method: counting up # of Top 25 opponents, plus half-points for # of opponents in the #26-#50 range (e.g., 3 Top-25 opponents plus one other foe ranked #26-50 = 3.5 points). Schedules with 3.5 points or fewer = very easy ... 4 or 4.5 points = easy ... 5 to 6 points = moderate ... 6.5 to 7 points = difficult, 7.5 points or higher = very difficult.
Using this method, Alabama has the only Very Difficult schedule, with a score of 8 points. That's seven (!!) Top-25 opponents (#7 Auburn, #9 Georgia, #13 LSU, #15 Ole Miss, #18 Wisconsin, #20 Arkansas, and #25 Vols), as well as two teams in the #26-50 range (#26 Miss St and #27 A&M).
Every other SEC team has a Moderate or Difficult schedule. Mizzou's score is the lowest, at 5 points (only 3 Top-25 opponents, plus 4 in the #26-50 range). The average SEC team has 5 Top-25 foes in 2015. The Vols' schedule is Moderate using this scale, with 5 Top-25 opponents (#3 Bama, #9 Georgia, #19 Oklahoma, #20 Arkansas, and #23 Mizzou), as well as two others in the #26-50 range (#36 USCe and #48 Florida).
Among the non-SEC Top 12 teams in the poll, USCw has the most difficult schedule, with a 6.5 score (0.5 points higher than the Vols). USC counts six Top-25 opponents (#5 Oregon, #11 ND, #14 UCLA, #16 Ariz St, #21 Stanford, and #22 Arizona), plus one in the #26-50 band (#30 Utah).
Clemson has the next toughest non-SEC schedule, at 5 points: three Top-25 foes (#8 FSU, #11 ND, and #17 Ga Tech), along with four in the #26-50 range.
All other teams in the Top 12 have Easy or Very Easy schedules. The easiest of them all is Ohio State's: 1 Top-25 opponent (#6 Mich St), with four other foes in the #26-50 range (#29 Va Tech, #34 Minnesota, #35 Penn State, and #39 Illinois). Next Easiest is Michigan State. The Big Ten is so depleted that any schedule in that conference is going to be hella weak.
---------------------------------------------------------
Second Method: averaging the ranking of the top six teams on each school's schedule. Why not average all 12 for each school? Because you can't get rankings for a lot of them, even counting down through the "Also getting points" part of the poll. There simply are a lot of schools that don't get a single point. Why only the six best? Because you can generally get an extended ranking for everyone on each team's list if you don't go any deeper than that. Plus, six is exactly half of the regular season total; seems like a good breaking point. Also, a "trash win" is a trash win, whether the team is ranked #90 or #120. Giving one team a leg up for the extra 30 positions of their #90 opponent doesn't help clarify matters in any way.
The range of results (for the SEC and Top 12 teams) runs from #12 avg rank to #32 avg rank. We'll band it this way: #29-32 = very easy, #25-28 = easy, #20-24 = moderate, #16-19 = difficult, and #12-15 = very difficult.
Using this method, Texas A&M has the most difficult schedule in the SEC. In the tougher half of their opponents the average ranking is #12. That's a lot of high-ranking teams they have to play. Their top six opponents include #3 Bama, #7 Auburn, #13 LSU, #15 Ole Miss, #16 Arizona State, and #20 Arkansas.
The SEC-West in general have gauntlets to run: Bama, Miss St, Arkansas, and Auburn also have Very Difficult schedules following this method, all with an average opponent ranking of #14 in the tougher half of their foes. Outside the SEC, the only team with this tough a schedule among the Top 12 is USCw: their avg is #15.
Again with this system, Ohio State has the easiest schedule among the Top 12, with an average high-six opponent ranking of #32 (that includes #6 Mich St, #29 Va Tech, #34 Minnesota, #35 Penn State, #39 Illinois, and #51 Maryland). Florida State ties with Ohio State for schedule ease using this method, their average is also #32 (#12 Clemson, #17 Ga Tech, #32 Louisville, #37 Miami, #45 NC State, and #48 Florida).
---------------------------------------------------------
Here's a chart summarizing all this in numbers and colors (from Easiest over to the Hardest). Bottom line is that being in the SEC is automatically brutal. But Mizzou finds a way to make their schedule as easy as possible, and USCw and Clemson have found ways to make theirs SEC-difficult.
Bottom line: SEC still the best, and toughest, conference in the US. The "we beat ourselves up and hurt our own chances of getting into the playoffs" argument is very real, and based on objective fact. The average SEC school has a schedule more difficult than any of the teams expected to finish in the Top 12, aside from USCw.
Go Vols!
Last edited:
