Early Lines Show TN favored in 9 games

#1
Kristy*

Kristy*

Omaha
Joined
Jun 16, 2015
Messages
5,698
Likes
16,902
#1
Vegas on the Vols: Time to Step Forward - Rocky Top Talk

Date/Opponent/Location/Tennessee point spread/ Tennessee win probability
9/5 Bowling Green Nashville, TN -21 93%
9/12 Oklahoma Knoxville, TN -1.5 52%
9/19 Western CarolinaKnoxville, TN NL* 99%
9/26 Florida Gainesville, FL -2.5 56%
10/3 Arkansas Knoxville, TN -2 53%
10/10 Georgia Knoxville, TN +1 49%
10/24 Alabama Tuscaloosa, AL +9.5 25%
10/31 Kentucky Lexington, KY -7 70%
11/7 South Carolina Knoxville, TN -9 75%
11/14 North Texas Knoxville, TN NL** 98%
11/21 Missouri Columbia, MO +2.5 44%
11/28 Vanderbilt Knoxville, TN -21 93%
 
  • Like
Reactions: 3 people
#3
#3
Did anyone else see how a Florida 247 mod picked us to lose to Kentucky? Listen, I know we are an unproven team and unlike most people I'm not trying to blow smoke up someone's ass until we prove something, but losing to Kentucky?? Are you kidding me? Did he watch that beat down (50-16) last year? I just don't get how some media actually think Kentucky is going to be a legit threat, even if it is in Lexington. We just match up well against them.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 3 people
#4
#4
lionfoorest said:
I get MO is there. But we have a better point spread against GA and OK? Doesn't make sense to me.
Click to expand...

Those are homes games. Flip where those games are at, and OK and UGA are favored. Flip the Missouri game and UT is favored.

The spread generally works out to a difference of 6 points for home vs away. Split it down the middle for neutral site.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#5
#5
VersaceButch said:
Did anyone else see how a Florida 247 mod picked us to lose to Kentucky? Listen, I know we are an unproven team and unlike most people I'm not trying to blow smoke up someone's ass until we prove something, but losing to Kentucky?? Are you kidding me? Did he watch that beat down (50-16) last year? I just don't get how some media actually think Kentucky is going to be a legit threat, even if it is in Lexington. We just match up well against them.
Click to expand...

A lot of people think it's a good trap game for us. They aren't giving Jones the respect he deserves for having his team focused each week. It may have been a trap game for coaches in the past, but not for this team.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#7
#7
Kristy* said:
A lot of people think it's a good trap game for us. They aren't giving Jones the respect he deserves for having his team focused each week. It may have been a trap game for coaches in the past, but not for this team.
Click to expand...

Exactly. Especially considering that same mod has us beating Georgia. It just doesn't make sense. I for one don't think we are there yet, and I don't see us beating Georgia. BUT, let's say we do. That gives us the inside track on winning the East (assuming we beat Florida) and I just don't see this team rolling into Lexington and falling asleep if a shot at ATL is on the line. It just seems so unlikely.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#8
#8
This write-up mostly echoes what's probably the most common position in VN over the past month or two: somewhere between 8-4 and 9-3. Breaking down in the stats of the article as:
  • Strongly favored, touchdown or more spread, in six games (BGSU, W Car, Ky, USCe, N Tex, Vandy)
  • Five games could go either way (Okla, Florida, Arky, UGa, Mizzou); slightly favored in three of the five
  • Significant underdog (9.5 points) to Bama
And my personal differences of opinion from this article are paradoxical. On one hand, I see 9-3 as slightly more likely than 8-4, rather than somewhat less. On the other hand, I'm not quite as confident about the USCe outcome as the vegas bookies list it; think Spurrier is gonna be as dangerous as a cornered wildcat this year. The man is pissed.

Best paragraph of the write-up, I think:
Furthermore, we see that based on these lines and corresponding probabilities, Tennessee has a 97% chance of reaching a bowl in 2015, an 87% chance of winning at least seven games, and a 66% chance of winning eight. If you're looking for baseline expectations, that's a pretty good start. Even outside Knoxville, eight is expected. Seven is a disappointment, and six is a failure. On the more optimistic side of things, the Vols have a 39% chance of hitting 9-3 or better and a 15% chance of hitting ten regular season wins. Certainly not an expectation, but nine looks to be an entirely reasonable goal, and ten is not outside the realm of reasonable possibility--the numbers say 10-2 or better is more likely than 6-6 or worse.
Click to expand...
 
  • Like
Reactions: 4 people
#12
#12
VersaceButch said:
Did anyone else see how a Florida 247 mod picked us to lose to Kentucky? Listen, I know we are an unproven team and unlike most people I'm not trying to blow smoke up someone's ass until we prove something, but losing to Kentucky?? Are you kidding me? Did he watch that beat down (50-16) last year? I just don't get how some media actually think Kentucky is going to be a legit threat, even if it is in Lexington. We just match up well against them.
Click to expand...
That game could've been worse. Butch put the brakes on in the 3rd qtr.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#14
#14
Kristy* said:
A lot of people think it's a good trap game for us. They aren't giving Jones the respect he deserves for having his team focused each week. It may have been a trap game for coaches in the past, but not for this team.
Click to expand...

It was a "trap game" last year and look how that turned out. Its Kentucky, its the norm to kick their ass.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#15
#15
lionfoorest said:
I get MO is there. But we have a better point spread against GA and OK? Doesn't make sense to me.
Click to expand...

I don't get that MU is there. The only way I can rationalize it is if people are overlooking their problems after being surprised by them the last two years. I don't think anyone who has looked at their roster issues this year or the "story behind the story" of their run last year would predict them to do well this fall.

If they do... someone needs to pay Pinkel.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 5 people
#16
#16
VersaceButch said:
Did anyone else see how a Florida 247 mod picked us to lose to Kentucky? Listen, I know we are an unproven team and unlike most people I'm not trying to blow smoke up someone's ass until we prove something, but losing to Kentucky?? Are you kidding me? Did he watch that beat down (50-16) last year? I just don't get how some media actually think Kentucky is going to be a legit threat, even if it is in Lexington. We just match up well against them.
Click to expand...

He probably paid more attention to the UF vs UK game than the UT vs UK game and assumed that somehow the UF game was the "real" UK.
 
#18
#18
Kristy* said:
Vegas on the Vols: Time to Step Forward - Rocky Top Talk

Date/Opponent/Location/Tennessee point spread/ Tennessee win probability
9/5 Bowling Green Nashville, TN -21 93%
9/12 Oklahoma Knoxville, TN -1.5 52%
9/19 Western CarolinaKnoxville, TN NL* 99%
9/26 Florida Gainesville, FL -2.5 56%
10/3 Arkansas Knoxville, TN -2 53%
10/10 Georgia Knoxville, TN +1 49%
10/24 Alabama Tuscaloosa, AL +9.5 25%
10/31 Kentucky Lexington, KY -7 70%
11/7 South Carolina Knoxville, TN -9 75%
11/14 North Texas Knoxville, TN NL** 98%
11/21 Missouri Columbia, MO +2.5 44%
11/28 Vanderbilt Knoxville, TN -21 93%
Click to expand...

As I explained in an earlier thread that generated a lot of discussion, we should be favored in every game except the road matchup against Alabama on October 24th. We have a better QB than every team we face this year, and we have enough talent and returning starters to be favored in road games against Florida and Missouri and home games against Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Georgia.

However, just because we should be favored to win 11 of our 12 games doesn't mean it's likely we'll actually win 11 games. Like most football teams, we will probably lose 2 or 3 games we shouldn't. The 1996 Chicago Bulls were favored in all 82 of their regular season games and still lost 10 games. So, while I disagree that we should be favored in only 9 games, I agree that we're most likely to only win 9 games.

Incidentally, another poster in the thread I started calculated we have a 23.77% chance of winning 10 or more games using ESPN's game-by-game odds. I'm slightly more optimistic than ESPN, so according to my game-by-game odds we have a 36% chance of winning 10 or more games, including a 1.3% chance of going 12-0.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 3 people
#19
#19
AboveAllNations said:
As I explained in an earlier thread that generated a lot of discussion, we should be favored in every game except the road matchup against Alabama on October 24th. We have a better QB than every team we face this year, and we have enough talent and returning starters to be favored in road games against Florida and Missouri and home games against Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Georgia.

However, just because we should be favored to win 11 of our 12 games doesn't mean it's likely we'll actually win 11 games. Like most football teams, we will probably lose 2 or 3 games we shouldn't. The 1996 Chicago Bulls were favored in all 82 of their regular season games and still lost 10 games. So, while I disagree that we should be favored in only 9 games, I agree that we're most likely to only win 9 games.

Incidentally, another poster in the thread I started calculated we have a 23.77% chance of winning 10 or more games using ESPN's game-by-game odds. I'm slightly more optimistic than ESPN, so according to my game-by-game odds we have a 36% chance of winning 10 or more games, including a 1.3% chance of going 12-0.
Click to expand...

I will probably have to respectfully disagree with saying we should be favored in 11 games. No doubt we are more talented than we have been in 7-8 years, but this is still a really young team and Butch has had some questionable game management decisions. To me, hype is the worst thing in the world. Some fans need to pump the brakes. Don't get me wrong, I am as high on Tennessee as I have been for a long time, but it's dangerous for us to just assume we are deserving of this type of praise based off the last few games of last year and our recruiting.

We need to come out and PROVE that we deserve this talk before we let it get to our heads. I would say favored in 9 games is appropriate, 2 games not favored, and GA being a toss up.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#20
#20
AboveAllNations said:
As I explained in an earlier thread that generated a lot of discussion, we should be favored in every game except the road matchup against Alabama on October 24th. We have a better QB than every team we face this year, and we have enough talent and returning starters to be favored in road games against Florida and Missouri and home games against Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Georgia.

However, just because we should be favored to win 11 of our 12 games doesn't mean it's likely we'll actually win 11 games. Like most football teams, we will probably lose 2 or 3 games we shouldn't. The 1996 Chicago Bulls were favored in all 82 of their regular season games and still lost 10 games. So, while I disagree that we should be favored in only 9 games, I agree that we're most likely to only win 9 games.

Incidentally, another poster in the thread I started calculated we have a 23.77% chance of winning 10 or more games using ESPN's game-by-game odds. I'm slightly more optimistic than ESPN, so according to my game-by-game odds we have a 36% chance of winning 10 or more games, including a 1.3% chance of going 12-0.
Click to expand...

Here's a fun fact: Bama hasn't been an underdog since the 2009 SEC championship game against Tebow. We all know they've lost a few games since then. Being the favorite doesn't mean you'll win, it is a pretty good indicator of it tho
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#21
#21
VersaceButch said:
I will probably have to respectfully disagree with saying we should be favored in 11 games. No doubt we are more talented than we have been in 7-8 years, but this is still a really young team and Butch has had some questionable game management decisions. To me, hype is the worst thing in the world. Some fans need to pump the brakes. Don't get me wrong, I am as high on Tennessee as I have been for a long time, but it's dangerous for us to just assume we are deserving of this type of praise based off the last few games of last year and our recruiting.

We need to come out and PROVE that we deserve this talk before we let it get to our heads. I would say favored in 9 games is appropriate, 2 games not favored, and GA being a toss up.
Click to expand...

What game besides Bama do you think we should not be favored in if not Georgia?

As the weekly predictions come out, I think we'll end up being underdogs to Bama and GA (slightly). Favored in the rest with OK being a small margin. I think the Mizzou spread will switch to our favor by a touchdown or so by then, as I don't expect them to be near as successful this year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#22
#22
VFL-82-JP said:
On the other hand, I'm not quite as confident about the USCe outcome as the vegas bookies list it; think Spurrier is gonna be as dangerous as a cornered wildcat this year. The man is pissed.
Click to expand...

Agreed. 3 In a row would be pretty darn impressive. Doubt Spurrier hasn't circled the Vols game this year.
 
#24
#24
Kristy* said:
What game besides Bama do you think we should not be favored in if not Georgia?

As the weekly predictions come out, I think we'll end up being underdogs to Bama and GA (slightly). Favored in the rest with OK being a small margin. I think the Mizzou spread will switch to our favor by a touchdown or so by then, as I don't expect them to be near as successful this year.
Click to expand...

Well are you talking current odds or 3 months from now? There is a huge difference as you said "once the weekly predictions come out." I don't think Mizzou will be as good either, but right now we definitely deserve to be an underdog there. Back-to-back East champs and Pinkel has proved he is a great coach. We also probably should be a pick'em with OU to be honest.

Once again, people need to seriously pump the brakes. The more and more I read posts on here and talk to my friends the more nervous I get. People are crowning us to be "back" again and to win the East. I preface this by saying I am extremely hopeful for this season as well but we as fans need to seriously check ourselves. This team hasn't proven anything yet. We still have yet to beat any major teams (USCe is close but they have been down lately) so until we come out of the gates firing like we should, it's tough for me to jump on the "We will win 9-10 games" bandwagon just yet.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#25
#25
lionfoorest said:
I get MO is there. But we have a better point spread against GA and OK? Doesn't make sense to me.
Click to expand...

Home team gets 3 points, so the neutral Georgia game pick is UGA by 4, the neural Missouri game pick is us by .5, and the neutral Oklahoma game pick is OU by 1.5.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top