AboveAllNations
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Jan 31, 2010
- Messages
- 931
- Likes
- 1,183
Most of us on Volnation are optimistic about our chances to win the SEC East this year, but there's still a vocal minority who think we should be "content" to win 8 games. Other posters think we'll lose to a terrible Florida team this year because of games that happened years ago with totally different players and different coaching staffs.
However, if you put aside irrational superstitions about losing streaks, ignore obvious recruiting propaganda from Butch Jones about our alleged "lack of depth," and realize that our perceived shortcomings (backup QB, offensive tackle, and #2 LB) pale in comparison to those of our SEC East rivals, it becomes clear that we should be considered the SEC East favorites this season. We've got the most returning starters, the best QB, the best D-line, the best secondary, and we host the other team with the best odds to win the division (Georgia).
So how many games should we realistically expect to win this season? The most accurate way to get an estimate would be to look at our schedule and add up the probabilities that we win each game. Josh Dobbs is really the only truly irreplaceable player on our team this year, so as long as he stays healthy (and there's absolutely no indication that he won't), I'm confident in these game-by-game odds:
v. Bowling Green (95% win)
v. Oklahoma (55% win)
v. Western Caroline (100% win)
@ Florida (66% win)
v. Arkansas (75% win)
v. Georgia (55% win)
(bye)
@ Alabama (20% win)
@ Kentucky (90% win)
v. South Carolina (80% win)
v. North Texas (100% win)
@ Missouri (66% win)
v. Vanderbilt (100% win)
Multiply each game by the win probability percentage:
v. Bowling Green (.95)
v. Oklahoma (.55)
v. Western Caroline (1.0)
@ Florida (.66)
v. Arkansas (.75)
v. Georgia (.55)
(bye)
@ Alabama (.20)
@ Kentucky (.90)
v. South Carolina (.80)
v. North Texas (1.0)
@ Missouri (.66)
v. Vanderbilt (1.0)
Then add up the numbers to get the number of expected wins:
.95 + .55 + 1.0 + .66 + .75 + .55 + .20 + .9 + .8 + 1.0 + .66 + 1.0 = 9.02 wins
So even though we're arguably favored in 11 of our 12 games, we should reasonably expect to win about 9 games this year. If you agree with the odds I've estimated for each game, 8-4 would be a disappointment. By contrast, here's my expected win total for Georgia:
v. U. La-Monroe (100% = 1.0)
@ Vanderbilt (100% = 1.0)
v. South Carolina (80% = .80)
v. Southern Jaguars (100% = 1.0)
v. Alabama (33% = .33)
@ Tennessee (45% = .45)
v. Missouri (75% = .75)
- bye -
@ Florida (75% = .75)
v. Kentucky (90% = .9)
@ Auburn (20% = .20)
v. Ga. Southern (100% = 1.0)
@ Ga. Tech (50% = .50)
Adding up their win probabilities for each game, Georgia's expected win total is only 8.68.
If we're likely to win the same number of games, and likely to actually beat Georgia head-to-head, why shouldn't we be favorites to win the division? I'll hang up and listen.
However, if you put aside irrational superstitions about losing streaks, ignore obvious recruiting propaganda from Butch Jones about our alleged "lack of depth," and realize that our perceived shortcomings (backup QB, offensive tackle, and #2 LB) pale in comparison to those of our SEC East rivals, it becomes clear that we should be considered the SEC East favorites this season. We've got the most returning starters, the best QB, the best D-line, the best secondary, and we host the other team with the best odds to win the division (Georgia).
So how many games should we realistically expect to win this season? The most accurate way to get an estimate would be to look at our schedule and add up the probabilities that we win each game. Josh Dobbs is really the only truly irreplaceable player on our team this year, so as long as he stays healthy (and there's absolutely no indication that he won't), I'm confident in these game-by-game odds:
v. Bowling Green (95% win)
v. Oklahoma (55% win)
v. Western Caroline (100% win)
@ Florida (66% win)
v. Arkansas (75% win)
v. Georgia (55% win)
(bye)
@ Alabama (20% win)
@ Kentucky (90% win)
v. South Carolina (80% win)
v. North Texas (100% win)
@ Missouri (66% win)
v. Vanderbilt (100% win)
Multiply each game by the win probability percentage:
v. Bowling Green (.95)
v. Oklahoma (.55)
v. Western Caroline (1.0)
@ Florida (.66)
v. Arkansas (.75)
v. Georgia (.55)
(bye)
@ Alabama (.20)
@ Kentucky (.90)
v. South Carolina (.80)
v. North Texas (1.0)
@ Missouri (.66)
v. Vanderbilt (1.0)
Then add up the numbers to get the number of expected wins:
.95 + .55 + 1.0 + .66 + .75 + .55 + .20 + .9 + .8 + 1.0 + .66 + 1.0 = 9.02 wins
So even though we're arguably favored in 11 of our 12 games, we should reasonably expect to win about 9 games this year. If you agree with the odds I've estimated for each game, 8-4 would be a disappointment. By contrast, here's my expected win total for Georgia:
v. U. La-Monroe (100% = 1.0)
@ Vanderbilt (100% = 1.0)
v. South Carolina (80% = .80)
v. Southern Jaguars (100% = 1.0)
v. Alabama (33% = .33)
@ Tennessee (45% = .45)
v. Missouri (75% = .75)
- bye -
@ Florida (75% = .75)
v. Kentucky (90% = .9)
@ Auburn (20% = .20)
v. Ga. Southern (100% = 1.0)
@ Ga. Tech (50% = .50)
Adding up their win probabilities for each game, Georgia's expected win total is only 8.68.
If we're likely to win the same number of games, and likely to actually beat Georgia head-to-head, why shouldn't we be favorites to win the division? I'll hang up and listen.
