Do the great coaches win by year three?

#1
Fingers

Fingers

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#1
Is this the telling year for Butch?

Auburn’s Gus Malzahn made it to the national championship game in his first season as Auburn’s head coach in 2013. Former Florida coach Urban Meyer won a national title in his second season with the Gators.

Nick Saban won the SEC championship in his second season at LSU and a national title in his third season at Alabama. Les Miles won a national championship in his third season at LSU.

Mark Richt’s best season at Georgia was his second (13-1).

Steve Spurrier succeeded right away at Florida. And in his third season at South Carolina, he won eight games. That might not be anything special at Florida, but it was a big deal for South Carolina.

So were James Franklin’s nine victories in his third season at Vanderbilt (2013). It impressed Penn State so much, it offered him a better job.
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John Adams: Third year crucial for SEC coaches - News Sentinel Story
 
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#2
#2
I don't think that "year x" is a measure unless the overall picture is examined. How bare was the cupboard? What was the schedule? What is the competitive situation? Saban got advantage of a declining UT program. Nobody can take anything away from the coaches but it is an apple/oranges comparison. There is no need to hang a cloud over the program again.
 
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#3
#3
OrangeByBirth said:
I don't think that "year x" is a measure unless the overall picture is examined. How bare was the cupboard? What was the schedule? What is the competitive situation? Saban got advantage of a declining UT program. Nobody can take anything away from the coaches but it is an apple/oranges comparison. There is no need to hang a cloud over the program again.
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I agree with this. There are so many factors that determine how successful a team is. I don't think we, as fans, should put too much stock into "we need to win x numbers of games by year x". As long as the team is making improvements and competing, the rest will take care of itself.
 
#4
#4
BigT_Chief said:
I agree with this. There are so many factors that determine how successful a team is. I don't think we, as fans, should put too much stock into "we need to win x numbers of games by year x". As long as the team is making improvements and competing, the rest will take care of itself.
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Its time to win. Period.
 
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#5
#5
I think the article, though not well thought-out (there is nothing magical about '3' over, say, '2' or '1', as the article itself seems to point out) is nevertheless saying the same thing many of us who watch the program closely have been saying--the thing that Checkerboards just said in post #4: there comes a time when the rebuilding has taken root, when recovering from weakness reaches fruition, and then it's simply time to start winning, if you're a great coach.

I believe Butch Jones is a great coach, and so I believe it is time for him to start winning greatly.

It's really that simple.
 
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#6
#6
When they walk in the door with a winning team already in place they do.This is a unique situation and Butch gets another year. 2016 is our year and everyone knows it. This won't stop half the fan base calling FYAR BUTCH by midseason tho!

I am very concerned about that Kentucky game. If I ever saw the definition of a trap...
 
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#7
#7
The "year three" garbage is facilitated by talking heads who never played football...don't listen to the man behind the curtain. We'll win our share this season but next is the real year in which to measure the full worth of Butch's recruiting and coaching. Don't forget where Butch had to start from.

GO VOLS!
 
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#8
#8
There are a lot of great coaches out there who simply aren't given enough time to succeed. The pressure to win immediately is a relatively new phenomenon - Bowden, Bryant, Osbourne, etc., didn't have that pressure but are legendary coaches because they were given the time to do things their way. I wonder how many Bowdens and Bryants are getting fired every 3 years these days because they simply haven't been given enough time to build their own culture and win on their terms.
 
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#9
#9
fade route said:
There are a lot of great coaches out there who simply aren't given enough time to succeed. The pressure to win immediately is a relatively new phenomenon - Bowden, Bryant, Osbourne, etc., didn't have that pressure but are legendary coaches because they were given the time to do things their way. I wonder how many Bowdens and Bryants are getting fired every 3 years these days because they simply haven't been given enough time to build their own culture and win on their terms.
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Derek Dooley is feelin' ya. He's lovin' him some, fade route.
 
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#10
#10
IluvdoubleD's said:
When they walk in the door with a winning team already in place they do.This is a unique situation and Butch gets another year. 2016 is our year and everyone knows it. This won't stop half the fan base calling FYAR BUTCH by midseason tho!

I am very concerned about that Kentucky game. If I ever saw the definition of a trap...
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DD, there's a logical error in your thoughts, and it is centered in the statement, "2016 is our year and everyone knows it."

I'm proof all by myself that you're wrong about that, because I don't think 2016 is our year.

Further, it seems from your own post that "half the fan base" doesn't "know it," either. Why would they call to fire Butch if they knew it wasn't our year until 2016? So you actually point out your own logical error.

Here's what I do think, and what I believe a lot of other folks think as well. I think we're standing at the edge of breakout improvement right now, right this minute, and that the breakout could come any time. But because we are, after all, dealing with a hundred 18-24 year olds and the millions of variables involved in their physical, mental and emotional coalescence into a single team, there's a certain degree of unpredictability to it all. I think not even Butch could predict with certainty when all his efforts will take hold and we'll see dramatic improvement as a result. He knows the breakout is coming, that's certain. But...when?

And if Butch can't even predict it for sure, how on earth could we hope to?

2015 will be a fun year. We will certainly see improvement over 2014. Championship level improvement? Who knows? All we know is, it's certainly going to be fun to watch.

From this point on, every year is a potential championship year for Tennessee football.
 
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#11
#11
I thought 1999 would be our year but 1998 everything fell in to place. Four games we could have lost and been 9 and 4 instead of 13- 0. In 98 we found ways to win the close ones and the 50/50 matchups which well coached teams do and it turned into a miracle year.
If everything falls right we could be there this year but thats why the balls not round you never know how it's gonna bounce.
 
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#12
#12
There is a stat that I heard a couple years back that seems relevant to this discussion....with the exception of 1 time, since 1992, every coach who's won the SEC won at least 9 games in his second year. That's a pretty good sample size now. Hope Butch becomes the second exception and not the rule.
 
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#13
#13
Last off-season we heard over and over on here about Butch's 2nd year records. To me, it seemed pointless because of what he inherited at CMU and UC following Kelly. UT's situation was completely different with a much tougher schedule and weak roster.

Butch is putting the pieces together. Last season he closed the gap in the losses. Now it's time to win a few of those games as well as the ones he should.
 
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#15
#15
It is time to win. No more excuses. Records of 7-6 are not acceptable any longer. This is a 9 win minimum program...but as long as we beat Floriduh, 8 is acceptable.
 
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#18
#18
OrangeByBirth said:
I don't think that "year x" is a measure unless the overall picture is examined. How bare was the cupboard? What was the schedule? What is the competitive situation? Saban got advantage of a declining UT program. Nobody can take anything away from the coaches but it is an apple/oranges comparison. There is no need to hang a cloud over the program again.
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Yes. It is very reasonable to expect great coaches to win by year three... to show significant improvement in terms of wins and losses. The overall picture helps define what we mean by "win" but rarely if ever do you see a coach linger within a win or two of what the program was for 3 or more years then become successful later. By year 3, most of the players were recruited and developed by the new coach. By year 3, anyone left by the previous coach will "fit" the new coach.

We can debate how "bare" the cupboard truly was when Jones arrived from now until the end of time. Without going into "better than that one, worse than this one"... I will just say it was NOT as threadbare as many here try to say.

Schedule? I would argue that the schedule Freeze faced in his year 3 was more difficult than the one that UT will face this fall. I would argue that the condition of their program was as bad or worse when he arrived and that he has less to "sell" at Ole Miss than Jones does at UT. I think most of us would be pretty happy if Jones equaled Freeze's mark of 9 wins in year 3.

Competitive situation? The year Spurrier took over at USCe he played one of the most talented but underperforming UT teams in modern history. He also played Aub (9-3), Bama (10-2), UGA (10-3), UF (9-3, he won btw), and Clemson (8-4). He won a game more than Holtz had in the year prior AND beat someone of significance.


The only cloud lingering over the program is the one of doubt and low expectations that makes excuses appealing.
 
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#19
#19
IluvdoubleD's said:
When they walk in the door with a winning team already in place they do.This is a unique situation and Butch gets another year.2016 is our year and everyone knows it . This won't stop half the fan base calling FYAR BUTCH by midseason tho!

I am very concerned about that Kentucky game. If I ever saw the definition of a trap...
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Walk in with a winning team? Freeze didn't. Spurrier didn't. Mullins didn't. Bama was 4-9, 6-6, 10-2, and 6-7 in the four years prior to Saban. LSU was 10-2, 9-3, 4-7, and 3-8 in the 4 years leading to Saban being hired. Vandy was a disaster for YEARS prior to Franklin.

The situation is not very unique. Coaches who replaced coaches who were fired seldom inherit great situations.


As far as "2016 is our year and everyone knows it" goes... why? UT returns more of its two deep this fall than anyone in the SEC plus some incoming talent that could contribute PLUS some Sophs and RS Fr from last year's class who have now had a full year of development and preparation. While "expecting" an SEC championship is not very reasonable, expecting a serious improvement in overall competitiveness and 2 or 3 more wins is not at all unreasonable. FWIW, if Jones and company aren't good enough coaches to take this roster and schedule to 8 or 9 wins then it is EXTREMELY unlikely that they are good enough to challenge for the SEC in '16 or any point after.

I think they will make strides this fall and compete for the East. I fear that much to the disappointment of folks like you... they'll miss the graduating starters in '16 more than expected and possibly even take a step back. IMO, this fall and '17 are better years than '16 for UT to make a run.
 
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#20
#20
There's great coaches that aren't good recruiters.

There's great recruiters that aren't good coaches.

There's great coordinators that are poor head coaches.

Some coaches take over a program with a roster stocked from top to bottom with talent, knowledge and experience and they get the glory that the staff in front of them built.

Some players take longer to develop into stars and the same can probably be said for head coaches.

Some player rosters take longer to get really good players, knowledge and experience with solid depth at every position.

Today we live in a "I want it all NOW" world and some good coaches that could have been great just couldn't get it done fast enough to make the fans happy.

Bobby Bowden is by far 1 of the best ever, as is our own CPF, but in this day and age those hall of fame coaches would never have been given enough time to get all the pieces together and would have been fired.

Sadly UT and Florida State would never have won as many games, conference championships or national championships either.

There's lessons to be learned in this but I doubt they'll be learned because the world we live in today seems to never learn from well proven history and facts.

Mistakes get repeated over and over simply because people forget or just don't care to learn from history and avoid the same dumb mistakes over and over.

buTch has us going in the right direction and if he has a few down years he'll probably get fired before he can right the ship again and all because too many dumb fans will scream bloody murder...Then we could easily get into a worse situation...like our recent past proved we did.

It's not easy to find a great recruiter and top recruiting is what make a good team become a great team along with good, consistent coaching.

#BrickbyBrick...VFL...GBO!!!
 
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#21
#21
Jones started behind the 8 ball with talent and depth so it may be year 4 or 5 before he can totally right the ship.
 
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#22
#22
photovol said:
Jones started behind the 8 ball with talent and depth so it may be year 4 or 5 before he can totally right the ship.
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You think he needs a full recruiting cycle to turn this thing around? I don't. I think this team is ready to compete, now.
 
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#23
#23
fade route said:
There are a lot of great coaches out there who simply aren't given enough time to succeed. The pressure to win immediately is a relatively new phenomenon - Bowden, Bryant, Osbourne, etc., didn't have that pressure but are legendary coaches because they were given the time to do things their way. I wonder how many Bowdens and Bryants are getting fired every 3 years these days because they simply haven't been given enough time to build their own culture and win on their terms.
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I absolutely agree with this train of thought. Organizational culture is something that cannot be appreciated enough IMHO...and, depending on circumstances can take more time than those outside the organization are willing to allow.

We all assess the state of UT football in the years preceding CBJ, and there are various opinions on how bad it may/may not have been. One thing for certain is that CBJ and staff had to correct a significant cultural problem....they did a great job in 2 years to transform the team into one that didn't quit or let up for all 4 Qtrs. Did that translate to all the wins we'd like to see...no, but aside from the Ole Miss game they were competitive until the final whistle.

When I read pieces like the one recently from B/R on the UT's cultural shift it gives me reason to see and expect great things out of this year's team and the future. The talent is coming together and now the team has focus, vision and expectations to perform to the best of their abilities for the entire game, which combined with the level of experience gained over the past 2 years will translate to more wins. Will it be enough to satisfy the masses....TBD, but I think it will.
 
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#24
#24
wow. Fans are already making excuses if things go south this year. Not sure what to make of that.

It's time to win now. Not necessarily a national title, but this team, counting the bowl game, should be very close to a 10 win team. Jones can't go 0-Bama,UF,UGA,OU,Mizzou again. In reality, added with Arkansas, Tennessee should be better than .500 in those six games this year.
 
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