jpiburn
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Its no secret that Butch Jones is recruiting a higher caliber of talent to Tennessee than the previous coaching staff. While that is no doubt a good thing for Vols fans, if Tennessee wants to challenge for the SEC title once again, whats more important is how the talent at Tennessee compares with other SEC schools - particularly in the SEC East. Using Rivals recruiting ratings, I take a look at the average player in each SEC schools recruiting class since 2010 and see how Tennessee stacks up.
Average Player Point Value (APPV)
Rivals rates each player and assigns them a point value based on their rating, adding bonus points if the player is in the Rivals 250. The higher a player is rated, the more points that player is assigned. To calculate what I will refer to as the Average Player Point Value (APPV) for each signing class, I take the point values of every player in the signing class and simply calculate the mean value for that class. Using APPV allows for an equal comparison across all signing classes, regardless of the number of signees in each class and also has a more understandable meaning than total points since it is on the same scale as an individual recruit.
Tennessee vs the SEC
Looking at Tennessees APPV compared to the SEC average from 2010 to 2015, the Butch Jones Era is immediately clear. Every signing class under Derek Dooley was worse than the last, with the worst of them coming in the transition class of 2013. This drop is commonplace for signing classes in the midst of a coaching change. However, once Butch Jones had a full year to recruit, Tennessees 2014 APPV skyrocketed well above the SEC average and in 2015 pulled even further ahead.
The talent gap between the SEC East and SEC West is very apparent. While the average SEC West APPV is approaching the level of a 4 star recruit, the SEC East consistently hovers around, and in 2015 dipped below, the minimum APPV level of a 3 star recruit. All of this is great news for Tennessee fans, as Butch Jones has elevated the APPV of Tennessee, in back to back years, to well over that of not only the SEC East average, but that of the much more talent laden SEC West as well.
SEC East
Diving into the SEC East, Tennessees 2015 class has the highest APPV in the division and second highest in the SEC behind only Alabama. This is the first time since 2002, when Rivals began publishing their ratings, that Tennessee has garnered the highest APPV in the SEC East. Before 2013, APPV in the East was dominated by Florida, who has been in a steady decline for 6 years now. Since 2010, Floridas APPV has almost without exception, given a slight increase from 2011 to 2012, been worse than the year before. While the large drop from 2014 to 2015 in Floridas APPV was most likely exacerbated due to the coaching transition (similar to what Tennessee experienced in 2013), its interesting to note that Floridas drop was much more significant than the one Tennessee experienced.
Looking at the other trends in the East, Missouri is consistently in the bottom tier of the classes, floating with the likes of Vanderbilt and Kentucky. This speaks volumes about the coaching ability of Gary Pinkel and his staff. Having already won back to back SEC East titles, if Missouri continues to increase their APPV, they have the potential to be a very difficult team to beat in the coming years.
SEC West
In the SEC West, there is Alabama and then everyone else. Nick Saban and crew have earned the highest APPV in the SEC every year since 2011 and its not even close, dethroning Florida who held the title from 2006 to 2010. LSU, Auburn, and Texas A&M, since entered they entered the SEC in 2012, contest for second place in the West from year to year.
Ole Miss briefly jumped into the top tier of the SEC West in 2013. Hugh Freeze signed three 5 star players in that class but that looks to be an exception rather than the rule as his past two classes have not seen anywhere near the same level of APPV.
2015 SEC Class Clusters
Hierarchical clustering is method used to find the natural divisions in a range of numbers, in our case the APPVs of the SEC. Starting with all the APPVs grouped into one, it breaks apart the group into clusters that have the biggest differences between them. The clusters continue going from two clusters to three, all the way down to as many clusters as there are teams with each team being its own cluster.
We use this method to find the natural divisions within the 2015 SEC APPVs. For example, if you were going to divide the SEC into two groups you would get Alabama, Tennessee, Auburn, Georgia, LSU, and Texas A&M in one group and then the rest of the SEC in the other. If you were to divide the SEC into three groups, Alabama breaks off into a cluster of their own leaving the other two clusters otherwise unchanged. The further you go down the tree, the more similar each team is to its neighbor. The teams are ordered left to right in their overall APPV for 2015.
Tennessees APPV is the 2nd highest in the SEC, clustering closest with Auburn. Georgia, LSU, and Texas A&M follow closely behind. Tennessee and Georgia are the only SEC East teams to be in the top half of the SEC. In fact, 5 of the bottom 6 in the SEC are members of the SEC East, with Arkansas being the only SEC West team not in the top 8.
Tennessee is back on top of SEC East recruiting for the first time in over a decade. While much of the East is in recruiting decay, in the two full recruiting cycles that Butch Jones has been at Tennessee, he has stacked back to back top 5 classes. Tennessees 2015 class was even better than its 2014 legacy class based on APPV. This trend very well may continue into the 2016 class with already 3 commitments from players in the Rivals 100, including Austin Kendall the number 3 pro-style QB and 27th overall player in the nation.
Tennessees recruiting is peaking while other rival SEC East schools are in decline. Having taken back the reigns of SEC East talent, if Butch Jones can translate his recruiting success to on the field production, Tennessee could be back in the SEC title game sooner rather than later.
Average Player Point Value (APPV)
Rivals rates each player and assigns them a point value based on their rating, adding bonus points if the player is in the Rivals 250. The higher a player is rated, the more points that player is assigned. To calculate what I will refer to as the Average Player Point Value (APPV) for each signing class, I take the point values of every player in the signing class and simply calculate the mean value for that class. Using APPV allows for an equal comparison across all signing classes, regardless of the number of signees in each class and also has a more understandable meaning than total points since it is on the same scale as an individual recruit.
Tennessee vs the SEC
Looking at Tennessees APPV compared to the SEC average from 2010 to 2015, the Butch Jones Era is immediately clear. Every signing class under Derek Dooley was worse than the last, with the worst of them coming in the transition class of 2013. This drop is commonplace for signing classes in the midst of a coaching change. However, once Butch Jones had a full year to recruit, Tennessees 2014 APPV skyrocketed well above the SEC average and in 2015 pulled even further ahead.
The talent gap between the SEC East and SEC West is very apparent. While the average SEC West APPV is approaching the level of a 4 star recruit, the SEC East consistently hovers around, and in 2015 dipped below, the minimum APPV level of a 3 star recruit. All of this is great news for Tennessee fans, as Butch Jones has elevated the APPV of Tennessee, in back to back years, to well over that of not only the SEC East average, but that of the much more talent laden SEC West as well.
SEC East
Diving into the SEC East, Tennessees 2015 class has the highest APPV in the division and second highest in the SEC behind only Alabama. This is the first time since 2002, when Rivals began publishing their ratings, that Tennessee has garnered the highest APPV in the SEC East. Before 2013, APPV in the East was dominated by Florida, who has been in a steady decline for 6 years now. Since 2010, Floridas APPV has almost without exception, given a slight increase from 2011 to 2012, been worse than the year before. While the large drop from 2014 to 2015 in Floridas APPV was most likely exacerbated due to the coaching transition (similar to what Tennessee experienced in 2013), its interesting to note that Floridas drop was much more significant than the one Tennessee experienced.
Looking at the other trends in the East, Missouri is consistently in the bottom tier of the classes, floating with the likes of Vanderbilt and Kentucky. This speaks volumes about the coaching ability of Gary Pinkel and his staff. Having already won back to back SEC East titles, if Missouri continues to increase their APPV, they have the potential to be a very difficult team to beat in the coming years.
SEC West
In the SEC West, there is Alabama and then everyone else. Nick Saban and crew have earned the highest APPV in the SEC every year since 2011 and its not even close, dethroning Florida who held the title from 2006 to 2010. LSU, Auburn, and Texas A&M, since entered they entered the SEC in 2012, contest for second place in the West from year to year.
Ole Miss briefly jumped into the top tier of the SEC West in 2013. Hugh Freeze signed three 5 star players in that class but that looks to be an exception rather than the rule as his past two classes have not seen anywhere near the same level of APPV.
2015 SEC Class Clusters
Hierarchical clustering is method used to find the natural divisions in a range of numbers, in our case the APPVs of the SEC. Starting with all the APPVs grouped into one, it breaks apart the group into clusters that have the biggest differences between them. The clusters continue going from two clusters to three, all the way down to as many clusters as there are teams with each team being its own cluster.
We use this method to find the natural divisions within the 2015 SEC APPVs. For example, if you were going to divide the SEC into two groups you would get Alabama, Tennessee, Auburn, Georgia, LSU, and Texas A&M in one group and then the rest of the SEC in the other. If you were to divide the SEC into three groups, Alabama breaks off into a cluster of their own leaving the other two clusters otherwise unchanged. The further you go down the tree, the more similar each team is to its neighbor. The teams are ordered left to right in their overall APPV for 2015.
Tennessees APPV is the 2nd highest in the SEC, clustering closest with Auburn. Georgia, LSU, and Texas A&M follow closely behind. Tennessee and Georgia are the only SEC East teams to be in the top half of the SEC. In fact, 5 of the bottom 6 in the SEC are members of the SEC East, with Arkansas being the only SEC West team not in the top 8.
Tennessee is back on top of SEC East recruiting for the first time in over a decade. While much of the East is in recruiting decay, in the two full recruiting cycles that Butch Jones has been at Tennessee, he has stacked back to back top 5 classes. Tennessees 2015 class was even better than its 2014 legacy class based on APPV. This trend very well may continue into the 2016 class with already 3 commitments from players in the Rivals 100, including Austin Kendall the number 3 pro-style QB and 27th overall player in the nation.
Tennessees recruiting is peaking while other rival SEC East schools are in decline. Having taken back the reigns of SEC East talent, if Butch Jones can translate his recruiting success to on the field production, Tennessee could be back in the SEC title game sooner rather than later.
