The Simple Case for 8-4 or Better in 2015

#1

VFL-82-JP

Bleedin' Orange...
Joined
Jan 17, 2015
Messages
19,629
Likes
51,932
#1
Like a mathematical proof. Here goes, the short version:

  1. 2014 and 2015 seasons roughly equal in difficulty.
  2. Team 119 more experienced+talented than Team 118.
  3. Josh Dobbs worth +10 points per game in 2014. Scored 24 ppg in Worley-led games, 34 ppg in Dobbs' games.
  4. Even with counter-argument that OLine got better as the year progressed, give half the credit (5 ppg) to Dobbs.
  5. With 5 additional ppg in early games, Tennessee would have beaten Georgia and Florida.
  6. Therefore, with nothing changed except Dobbs, Vols would have gone 8-4 in 2014.
  7. Combine Point 1 and Point 6 == 8-4 in 2015.
  8. That's the floor; with more seasoned/talented team in 2015, could be even better.
  9. Conclusion: 8-4 minimum reasonable expectation, 9-3 or even 10-2 not outlandish possibilities.

----------------The Long Version, for those who want to debate--------------

1. 2014 and 2015 seasons are roughly equal in difficulty. If anything, 2015 schedule slightly easier, because (1) Oklahoma game is at home, and (2) 2015 Arkansas team (pre-season Top 25) somewhat weaker than 2014 Ole Miss team (Top 10 finish, #3 in country at game time).

2. Team 119 seen as more talented than Team 118. Vols return almost all the starters and most of the 2014 two-deep. The few key contributing seniors lost to graduation are more than offset by all the new incoming talent. Additionally, all the 23 freshmen who played in 2014 are now sophomores with a full year of experience and development under their belts.

3. Josh Dobbs in 2014 was worth 10 additional points per game. In the first 7 games of the year, without Dobbs, average Tennessee score was 24. In the final 6 games, with Dobbs, average score was 34. Both halves of the schedule had tough games (Oklahoma, Georgia and Ole Miss early, Alabama and Mizzou late) and easy games (Utah State, Arkansas State, and Chattanooga early, Vandy and Kentucky late). So the extra 10 points did NOT come from the schedule being significantly easier.

4. There is value to the counter-argument that the OLine got better as the year progressed, contributing to higher offensive scores. Okay, I'll give you that. We'll split the 10 additional points in half, give credit for 5 to the OLine and 5 to Dobbs.

5. With 5 additional points per game in the first half of the season, Tennessee would have beaten Georgia and Florida (lost by 3 and 1 points, respectively). Even if Josh had only been the backup to Worley in the Georgia game, even if he'd only been in the 3rd quarter, we'd have won ... at least one of Peterman's three futile offensive drives would have resulted in points with Dobbs.

6. Therefore, with nothing changed except Dobbs, we would've gone 8-4 in 2014, rather than 6-6.

7. Combine Point 1 and Point 6 = 8-4 in 2015.

8. And that's the "floor" ... because in addition to having Dobbs, we also have a more seasoned and talented team in 2015 than we had in 2014. Who knows how much more that adds.

9. Conclusion: 8-4 is an entirely reasonable expectation in 2015, with possibility or even more. The Oklahoma and Missouri games, in particular, look to be ripe for reversal in 2015.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 10 people
#2
#2
That small font tho, needless to say DNR that part. Good proof though, hopefully thats how it works out. I wonder if we win the east with wins over georgia/florida and losses to bama/mizzou/arkansas. Assuming the other loss is oklahoma.
 
#3
#3
I agree with it all expect I'm not certain Dobbs would have equaled W's over UGA and UF.

But do agree 8-4 and above is very possible!
 
  • Like
Reactions: 3 people
#4
#4
I agree with it all expect I'm not certain Dobbs would have equaled W's over UGA and UF.

But do agree 8-4 and above is very possible!

I agree on UGA. However Dobbs = victory over FL. Our offense was beyond horrible that day. It would have HAD to be better.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#5
#5
Looks reasonable to me. Our season will likely go as Dobbs goes. Keep him healthy and 9 - 3 is a real possibility. If he is hurt....depending on what time of year of course.....then that may give us 1 or 2 extra losses.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#7
#7
If I had to guess.....there is one game that is a sure loss and that's Bama. There are 6 other games that are capable of genuinely being won or lost.

Assuming breaks even out, I'll split the difference. Tennessee wins 3 and loses 3 of those 6 and goes 8-4.

With breaks going Tennessee's way more often than not, better than 8-4. With breaks going against Tennessee more often than not, worse than 8-4.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#8
#8
I agree with it all expect I'm not certain Dobbs would have equaled W's over UGA and UF.

But do agree 8-4 and above is very possible!

I agree on UGA. However Dobbs = victory over FL. Our offense was beyond horrible that day. It would have HAD to be better.

Yeah, I wondered that myself as I was writing this up, so I went back and re-watched the Georgia game. Especially watched the entire 3rd quarter, all three of Peterman's drives. Could definitely see Dobbs getting us into the end zone on at least one of those drives, maybe two of them. So even if Dobbs is only backup to Worley rather than the starter, I think we win that game. And the Florida game even more easily.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#9
#9
I'll also say that this reasoning doesn't really work. If I applied the same logic to Florida.....and said the game with Idaho isn't cancelled and give them 5 more points per game because....hey, their offense can't be worse....., they go 10-2 last season.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#10
#10
Like a mathematical proof. Here goes, the short version:

  1. 2014 and 2015 seasons roughly equal in difficulty.
  2. Team 119 more experienced+talented than Team 118.
  3. Josh Dobbs worth +10 points per game in 2014. Scored 24 ppg in Worley-led games, 34 ppg in Dobbs' games.
  4. Even with counter-argument that OLine got better as the year progressed, give half the credit (5 ppg) to Dobbs.
  5. With 5 additional ppg in early games, Tennessee would have beaten Georgia and Florida.
  6. Therefore, with nothing changed except Dobbs, Vols would have gone 8-4 in 2014.
  7. Combine Point 1 and Point 6 == 8-4 in 2015.
  8. That's the floor; with more seasoned/talented team in 2015, could be even better.
  9. Conclusion: 8-4 minimum reasonable expectation, 9-3 or even 10-2 not outlandish possibilities.

----------------The Long Version, for those who want to debate--------------

1. 2014 and 2015 seasons are roughly equal in difficulty. If anything, 2015 schedule slightly easier, because (1) Oklahoma game is at home, and (2) 2015 Arkansas team (pre-season Top 25) somewhat weaker than 2014 Ole Miss team (Top 10 finish, #3 in country at game time).

2. Team 119 seen as more talented than Team 118. Vols return almost all the starters and most of the 2014 two-deep. The few key contributing seniors lost to graduation are more than offset by all the new incoming talent. Additionally, all the 23 freshmen who played in 2014 are now sophomores with a full year of experience and development under their belts.

3. Josh Dobbs in 2014 was worth 10 additional points per game. In the first 7 games of the year, without Dobbs, average Tennessee score was 24. In the final 6 games, with Dobbs, average score was 34. Both halves of the schedule had tough games (Oklahoma, Georgia and Ole Miss early, Alabama and Mizzou late) and easy games (Utah State, Arkansas State, and Chattanooga early, Vandy and Kentucky late). So the extra 10 points did NOT come from the schedule being significantly easier.

4. There is value to the counter-argument that the OLine got better as the year progressed, contributing to higher offensive scores. Okay, I'll give you that. We'll split the 10 additional points in half, give credit for 5 to the OLine and 5 to Dobbs.

5. With 5 additional points per game in the first half of the season, Tennessee would have beaten Georgia and Florida (lost by 3 and 1 points, respectively). Even if Josh had only been the backup to Worley in the Georgia game, even if he'd only been in the 3rd quarter, we'd have won ... at least one of Peterman's three futile offensive drives would have resulted in points with Dobbs.

6. Therefore, with nothing changed except Dobbs, we would've gone 8-4 in 2014, rather than 6-6.

7. Combine Point 1 and Point 6 = 8-4 in 2015.

8. And that's the "floor" ... because in addition to having Dobbs, we also have a more seasoned and talented team in 2015 than we had in 2014. Who knows how much more that adds.

9. Conclusion: 8-4 is an entirely reasonable expectation in 2015, with possibility or even more. The Oklahoma and Missouri games, in particular, look to be ripe for reversal in 2015.

Nice theory, Josh, we get it. Now take your rocket science and shoot for the moon. :superman: :)
GO VOLS!
 
#11
#11
I agree with it all expect I'm not certain Dobbs would have equaled W's over UGA and UF.

But do agree 8-4 and above is very possible!

only if he had played D and significantly contributed to keep Gurley under his career high 208 yds....and then, maybe...

Worley played a damn fine game against UGA - a fact that shouldn't be taken from him
 
  • Like
Reactions: 6 people
#12
#12
I'll also say that this reasoning doesn't really work. If I applied the same logic to Florida.....and said the game with Idaho isn't cancelled and give them 5 more points per game because....hey, their offense can't be worse....., they go 10-2 last season.

Your coach stank.

I am envious of few things when it comes to the Gators... determination to win and willingness to remove losing coaches by your admin and supporters... is definitely one of them.
 
#13
#13
only if he had played D and significantly contributed to keep Gurley under his career high 208 yds....and then, maybe...

Worley played a damn fine game against UGA - a fact that shouldn't be taken from him

Oh, yeah, I agree Worley was brilliant vs. Georgia. But Worley only played 3 quarters of that game. It was specifically the quarter that Peterman QB'd, the 3rd quarter, where Dobbs would almost certainly have made a significant difference.

I mentioned that in the write-up, above, you must've missed it because of small font.
 
#14
#14
Worley would have been praised as one of the better QB's in the SEC if the OL had been even mediocre in pass protection. Since they were horrible... not so much. Whatever he lacked vs Dobbs in mobility he would have made up for by being a more polished passer... if the OL had played better.
 
#15
#15
I agree on UGA. However Dobbs = victory over FL. Our offense was beyond horrible that day. It would have HAD to be better.

I agree. People seem to forget just how good Worley was against UGA. He was simply great.

Dobbs beats florida easily last season. Our offense had no answer for florida's pass rush, but dobbs was the great equalizer to that problem later in the season.
 
#17
#17
Some are missing the point on the Georgia game. Re-watch the 3rd quarter. The quarter Worley missed because he was getting his elbow checked out in the locker room. The quarter with three Peterman led drives, one of which got to the GA 21 yard line before a Peterman-to-Lane handoff fumble, and two other drives that could have gone somewhere if Peterman hadn't been a sitting target for GA's pass rush and blitzes.

That's where Dobbs wins the GA game, is in the 3rd quarter. Not trying to take anything away from Worley, those who know my posts on VN know I've always said good things about his 2014 season but for a sieve-like OLine.

With Dobbs as Worley's backup vs GA, and Dobbs as QB vs. Florida, we would've gone 8-4 in 2014. It's just about as certain as any football hypothetical can be.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#18
#18
I'll also say that this reasoning doesn't really work. If I applied the same logic to Florida.....and said the game with Idaho isn't cancelled and give them 5 more points per game because....hey, their offense can't be worse....., they go 10-2 last season.

I'm sorry, but there is nothing in this world that could convince me last years Florida team would go 10-2. That's just crazy talk..
 
#19
#19
I'm sorry, but there is nothing in this world that could convince me last years Florida team would go 10-2. That's just crazy talk..

That's why the logic doesn't work.

But, using the logic in the original post, Florida lost to LSU by 3, SC in overtime, and FSU by 5.

Yet, you can't just use a "6 more ppg" logic, imo
 
#20
#20
I agree. People seem to forget just how good Worley was against UGA. He was simply great.

Dobbs beats florida easily last season. Our offense had no answer for florida's pass rush, but dobbs was the great equalizer to that problem later in the season.

Above average Mobility at QB is a great equalizer
 
#21
#21
Your coach stank.

I am envious of few things when it comes to the Gators... determination to win and willingness to remove losing coaches by your admin and supporters... is definitely one of them.

I don't know why you don't believe this about Tennessee.

Tennessee fired a national championship winning coach who was an alumnus. Not many schools would dare do that.

Tennessee canned Dooley after 3 years.

Tennessee ran off C. Martin.

Tennessee fired Raleigh.

I don't see evidence out there that says Tennessee isn't willing to pull the trigger if he doesn't get the job done.

We let a guy go 4-8 and lose to an FCS school and didn't fire him for another year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#22
#22
That's why the logic doesn't work.

But, using the logic in the original post, Florida lost to LSU by 3, SC in overtime, and FSU by 5.

Yet, you can't just use a "6 more ppg" logic, imo

Your reply doesn't have the logic of the original post. You don't have a differentiator to apply. Who is the difference maker for Florida, and where is the statistical evidence of how much difference he would've made? See? No logic in your counter.
 
#24
#24
Your reply doesn't have the logic of the original post. You don't have a differentiator to apply. Who is the difference maker for Florida, and where is the statistical evidence of how much difference he would've made? See? No logic in your counter.

The difference maker is that Florida has a head coach with a clue and has learned that the forward pass is still legal.

I'll also say that the stats involving Dobbs are misleading. Dobbs faced the portion of the schedule loaded with defenses that were turds. Except Missouri. And Missouri didn't really have a whole lot of difficulty with the Dobbs led offense.
 
Last edited:
#25
#25
I don't know why you don't believe this about Tennessee.

Tennessee fired a national championship winning coach who was an alumnus. Not many schools would dare do that.

Tennessee canned Dooley after 3 years.

Tennessee ran off C. Martin.

Tennessee fired Raleigh.

I don't see evidence out there that says Tennessee isn't willing to pull the trigger if he doesn't get the job done.

We let a guy go 4-8 and lose to an FCS school and didn't fire him for another year.

I don't think Tennessee's problem has been an unwillingness to fire a coach. It's been the failure in hiring replacements.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people

VN Store



Back
Top