Is experience neccesary to win? (roster analysis of the last 2 national champs)

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

This has been one of the most hotly debated questions over the last couple of months around here. Many have claimed that the 2015 Vols are simply too young to compete at the highest level. Is a team with so many freshmen and sophmores in its two-deep depth chart capable of winning a national title? Lets see by looking at the last 2 national champs (Ohio State and Florida State).

Here is a two-deep depth chart of the 2014 national champion Ohio State Buckeyes: Ohio State’s two-deep depth chart vs. Alabama in the Allstate Sugar Bowl

Freshmen: 13
Sophmores: 9
Juniors: 12
Seniors: 10
Total: 44

50% Freshman/Sophomores
50% Juniors/Seniors

Here is a two-deep depth chart of the 2013 national champion Florida State Seminoles: Florida State Releases First Depth Chart of the Season | Seminoles Chant

Freshmen: 8
Sophmores: 12
Juniors: 14
Seniors: 12
Total: 46

43% Freshman/Sophomores
57% Juniors/Seniors

And now the way too early projected depth chart for your 2015 Tennessee Vols: Predicting Tennessee's Starters at Every Position for the 2015 Season | Bleacher Report (I made two changes to this projected depth chart that I thought were more likely: (1) Josh Malone in place of Jonathan Johnson; and (2) Shy Tuttle in place of Kendall Vickers)

Freshmen: 8
Sophmores: 17
Juniors: 10
Seniors: 11
Total: 46

54% Freshman/Sophomores
46% Juniors/Seniors


Now I'm not saying Tennessee will win the national title next year. Nor am I saying THEY SHOULD. All I'm saying is the notion that we need a depth chart dominated by juniors and seniors is simply FALSE. Ohio State and Florida State did not win the last 2 national titles because they were experienced. They won because they simply had better TALENT. And alot of that talent was young and inexperienced. Many freshman and sophomores were key to both teams winning. A two-deep depth chart made up of ~50% Freshmen/Sophomores if more than capable to playing at the highest level.

 

[joevol33]

Depends on the quality of the freshman and sophomores. Several players on those teams were redshirted and already knew the system when they stepped on the field. Last year, and this year we are playing true freshman in many spots who are learning on the go.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Nice job, D4H, I think you're spot on.

Now prepare yourself for the slings and arrows of a few of our fellow VNers who remain adamantly in denial. They will question the accuracy and the precision of your findings. They will insist you add RS info (one already has). They will insist that "junior" and "senior" mean something different to our team than to other teams. But they will do no work themselves to prove anything; they will simply criticize.

They'll do that because they can't get over the fact that teams change with time. That the youth and inexperience caveats, so true for our team in 2013 and 2014, are no longer valid when you project forward into the 2015 season.

I and others appreciate your work. You add to a body of evidence that grows harder and harder to ignore. Thanks very much for your efforts.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Depends on the quality of the freshman and sophomores. Several players on those teams were redshirted and already knew the system when they stepped on the field. Last year, and this year we are playing true freshman in many spots who are learning on the go.

EXACTLY. I've consistently maintained that if Tennessee does not succeed next year (winning less than 8 games), it won't be because of inexperience, it'll be because our young guys are not really that good. And when I say not really that good, I mean they're not good enough to eventually lead us to a national title.

One of the biggest misconceptions many have is that junior/senior laden teams win national titles. Well that is simply not true. The teams that win national titles are those with STUD sophomores and juniors (guys who'll be in the NFL way before they run out of college eligibility). Teams filled with redshirt juniors and seniors will only get you to the Missouri level of success. Sure you'll win 10+ games and make it to a decent bowl game, but you won't be winning national titles. The best players leave after 3 years. And if you wanna win national title, you need the best players. I'd rather have a team led by STUD freshman and sophomores than redshirt juniors and seniors that weren't good enough to get drafted after 3 years.

 

[macrovol]

The difference is the quality of OSU juniors and seniors. They didn't have a Dooley recruiting them.

 

[hillsborovol]

Very interesting analysis. Two deep class comparisons can be deceiving if a high percentage of the younger players are 2nd teamers who only play a limited number of snaps. It would be interesting to also see the class distribution of the starters to give a more complete picture.

 

[Titan&Volfan4life]

It would be interesting to know how many of those 2 deep rosters are junior and seniors that are starters that play most of the snaps during the game?

2 deeps can have lots of freshmen, redshirt freshmen and sophs that only play a few snaps to give the junior and senior starters a breather now and then.

It would also be interesting to know how many upperclassmen are starters on the O and D lines.

There's also a big knowledge difference in a true freshman and a redshirt freshman that has over a year learning everything in the systems.

IMHO there's too many important unknowns to make a solid analysis on the OPs original post.

#BrickbyBrick...VFL...GBO!!!

 

[Nationdom]

Talent wins

 

[Remy]

Talent wins

Talent can win, its no guarantee. Hence how do you explain Boise St? Ever see tons of 4 & 5 star players put on their cap at NSD? Seems not too many years ago I saw a vastly more talented Saban led Bammer bunch get crushed by a Utah team with few memorable players. Get a refresh of the 85 Vols. In the Sugar Bowl. If the more talented team wins every time there is no reason to play the game, just exchange rosters and declare a victor.

 

[TAF]

There is always something to be said for the play of young players, who don't have a true sense of the situation due to lack of experience...who play with some reckless abandon...

 

[Nationdom]

Talent can win, its no guarantee. Hence how do you explain Boise St? Ever see tons of 4 & 5 star players put on their cap at NSD? Seems not too many years ago I saw a vastly more talented Saban led Bammer bunch get crushed by a Utah team with few memorable players. Get a refresh of the 85 Vols. In the Sugar Bowl. If the more talented team wins every time there is no reason to play the game, just exchange rosters and declare a victor.

Talent wins 93% of the time.

 

[checkerboards09]

Nice job, D4H, I think you're spot on.

Now prepare yourself for the slings and arrows of a few of our fellow VNers who remain adamantly in denial. They will question the accuracy and the precision of your findings. They will insist you add RS info (one already has). They will insist that "junior" and "senior" mean something different to our team than to other teams. But they will do no work themselves to prove anything; they will simply criticize.

They'll do that because they can't get over the fact that teams change with time. That the youth and inexperience caveats, so true for our team in 2013 and 2014, are no longer valid when you project forward into the 2015 season.

I and others appreciate your work. You add to a body of evidence that grows harder and harder to ignore. Thanks very much for your efforts.

In denial? The only ones denying are the ones that haven't looked at the depth chart. Ill go with the facts that are right there plain as day.

 

[Other_Guy]

You're forgetting about quality depth. In UTs case, they are lacking in a few areas.

I think the development if key, and these position coaches have shown they can develop the youngtalent.

 

[PowerWookie]

The difference is the quality of OSU juniors and seniors. They didn't have a Dooley recruiting them.

Tru... We r finally close to having that monkey off our back

 

[Nocleats]

Talent can win.. Experienced talent does win. But the thing that is most important is the physical maturity. Huge difference between an 18 year old and a 22 year old physically.
Particularly in the trenches.

 

[Biopsyman]

You have a have a true difference maker at QB to get to the big game..

 

[RollerVol]

Talent, hunger, and heart trump everything.

GO VOLS!

 

[Nocleats]

Tru... We r finally close to having that monkey off our back

If we can get them to quit leaving after their freshmen year.. Its when that starter goes down and you plug in Jr. or Sr. who may not have as much talent but knows what's up, that's when you start hitting stride and avoiding huge drop-offs. If you stay you will play, maybe not start but then again you might..

 

[MDBJJC]

Talent and maturity and development. 2016 should be fantastic

 

[Evet Vols]

TN has the talent to start winning this year and it needs to happen. The main reason is Butch has been selling playing time and now Butch will need to bring in recruits by selling they will be playing for a team that will play for Championships.

 

[LittleCat]

Very good post OP. I've enjoyed a lot of your posts around VN.

A thing to remember, no matter what the entire team is made up of, both of those teams were led by heisman candidates. FSU had Winston, who for all his crap, played insane his championship year, and then still played incredible the 2nd year. And we all know OSU had about 3 heisman looking QB's on the roster. I think the Vols have a shot with Dobbs, but it's hard to imagine the Vols going to the playoff.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Nice point, LittleCat. There's a bit of a chicken-and-egg element to your point, though. Does the Heisman quality player make the team championship caliber, or does the championship-caliber team make the QB a Heisman candidate? The two unquestionably tend to go together, and I'm not sure you can call either aspect the "cause" or the "effect." Little bit of both, playing both ways, I think.

Not saying the Vols will be competing for SEC or Nat'l championships this year, or that Dobbs or Hurd will be in the Heisman running. Just saying team success tends to breed individual accolades, and vice-versa.

EDIT and p.s.: How many Heismans recently have been won by underclassmen? 2 of 3, right? That's another data point in this question of whether successful college football teams are getting younger....

 

[sjt18]

The difference is the quality of OSU juniors and seniors. They didn't have a Dooley recruiting them.

No. Not really.

If we were talking about a NC then maybe you have an argument.... But most of us don't dare to even hope for more than 10 wins and expect 8. The two classes left by Tressel and Dooley were similar in ranking and Tressel left a HUGE NCAA mess behind him. UT was actually probably a little better on avg for those two classes.

The one difference you could argue is that Meyer's name recognition helped him to a better class in '12 than Jones had.

 

[sjt18]

OP has forgotten a cardinal rule for some around here... you NEVER, NEVER make comparisons that might indicate that Jones has not performed as well as other coaches to this point OR that indicate he should be held to a higher standard this fall. Any and ALL such comparisons are totally unfair. It is fair however to compare his recruiting rankings to other coaches or his record prior to coming to UT. But attrition, wins, turnaround time, W/L with relation to talent, etc... that's unfair.

 

[sjt18]

Talent and maturity and development. 2016 should be fantastic

Really? After this fall the Vols will lose Pig, Pearson, 3 of 5 OL starters, Maggitt, Randolph, McNeil, Ellis, and Weatherd assuming no one has a good enough season to leave early.

The "no depth", "no experience" reasons will be perhaps even MORE valid in '16 than '15. I mean your expectations have to drop if you lose 3 of 5 OL's, both starting safeties, the leading receiver, and your most explosive player from the front 7, right?

No... by then many of you will have moved your expectations back to 17 or 18 more perhaps 2025....