ESPN SEC Position Rankings Weighted Averages

[Ericvol2096]

Here is the link to ALL of ESPN's position rankings (QB, RB, WR/TE, OL, DL, LB, DB, ST).

2015 SEC pre-spring position rankings - SEC Blog - ESPN

I've taken all the rankings and I've assigned point rankings to them 14 for 1st and 1 for last and everything in between.

I've weighted them two different ways.

(QBx2, OL and DLx1.5 and ST 1.5 all other no weight)

(QBx1.5, OL and DLx2 and STx 1.5 all the other no weight)

(Then an ranking based on no weights)

I had an NFL salary weight but it wasn't much different and I didn't know what to do with ST.

Before we dive into this years results here is what last year's looked like.

Here would have been last years using the x2 QB and 1.5 OL/DL formula

2014
1. Alabama - 121
2. Auburn - 106.5
3. SC - 98.5
4. LSU - 95.5
5. Georgia - 93.5
6. Missouri - 92.5
7. Miss St - 89
8. Ole Miss - 88.5
9. Florida - 88
10. Texas A&M - 78.5
11. Tennessee - 46.5
12. Arkansas - 43
13. Kentucky - 31
14. Vandy - 29

That projected
WEST
1. Alabama (0)
2. Auburn (-2)
3. LSU (-2)
4. Miss St (+2)
5. Ole Miss (+2)
6. A&M (0)
7. Arkansas (0)

EAST
1. SC (-4)
2. UGA (0)
3. Missouri (+2)
4. Florida (+1)
5. TN (+1)
6. Kentucky (0)
7. Vandy (0)

So here are the FINAL results of the 2015 rankings.

DL/OLx2, QBx1.5, STx1.5
1. Georgia - 119
2. Tennessee - 111
3. LSU - 109
4. Alabama - 107
5. Auburn - 104.5
6. Arkansas - 85.5
7. Miss St - 84
7. Texas A&M - 84
9. Missouri - 81
10. Ole Miss - 77
11. Florida - 67.5
12. Cocks - 56
13. Kats - 36
14. Vandy - 33.5

QBx2, DL/OLx1.5, STx1.5
1. Tennessee - 109.5
2. Georgia - 108.5
3. LSU - 102
4. Auburn - 99
5. Alabama - 97.5
6. Miss St - 86
7. Missouri - 82.5
8. Texas A&M - 82
9. Arkansas - 81
10. Ole Miss - 69.5
11. Florida - 63.5
12. South Carolina - 50
13. Kentucky - 38.5
14. Vandy - 33

No Weighting
1. Georgia - 88
2. Tennessee - 83
3. LSU - 81
4. Alabama - 76
5. Auburn - 67
6. Arkansas - 62
7. Miss St - 60
8. Missouri - 59
8. Texas A&M - 59
10. Ole Miss - 54
11. Florida - 49
12. South Carolina - 42
13. Kentucky - 27
14. Vandy - 26

So that projects for 2015
That projected
West
1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Auburn
4. Miss St
5. Arkansas
6. A&M
7. Ole Miss

East
1. Georgia
2. Tennessee
3. Missouri
4. Florida
5. South Carolina
6. Kentucky
7. Vandy

ALSO

Here is what TN's points would have looked like the last four years with this analysis and where they would have fallen in the rankings. We...are...BACK!

2012
79 points (10th)
2013
54 points (11th)
2014
46.5 points (11th)
2015
109.5 points (1st)

OK so I just threw schedules into the mix.

I added or subtracted 15 ranking points based on home or away on every teams schedule for all three point rankings. Some of these matchups were super close, but if you put these rankings into the teams schedules with home and away factored in here are the results....drum roll please.

SEC East
1- Tennessee (7-1) L @Bama
2- Georgia (6-2) L's @TN and @Aub
3- Missouri (5-3) L's @UGA, TN and @Ark
4- South Carolina (3-5) W's UK, Vandy and UF
5- Florida (3-5) W's @UK, OM and Vandy
6- Vandy (1-7) W over Kentucky
7- Kentucky (0-8)

SEC West
1- LSU - (7-1) L @Bama
2- Auburn - (7-1) L @LSU
3- Alabama - (6-2) L's @Aub and @UGA
4- Ole Miss - (3-5) W's Vandy, A&M and Ark
5- Arkansas - (3-5) W's A&M, Miss St and Missouri
6- Texas A&M - (3-5) W's Miss St, SC, @Vandy
7- Mississippi St - (2-6) W's UK and Ole Miss

SEC Title Game
Tennessee Vs. LSU

SEC Champion
The University of Tennessee Volunteers

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Nicely done, I appreciate the weightings you applied. Think they're about right, could argue for a half point more or less here or there, but that's all just fine-tuning a good job already running. Nice job.

I agree special teams need weighting. As General Neyland famously said, that's where the breaks are made. Inordinate impact on the game for the limited number of plays. I think 1.5 sounds about right.

Thanks for doing this, look forward to seeing how it plays out as ESPN finishes up their ratings.

 

[Ericvol2096]

Here it is with OL and DL getting x2 and QB x1.5

1 - Auburn - 78.5
2 - Tennessee - 75.5
3 - Bama - 73.5
4 - Georgia - 71
5 - LSU - 66.5
6 - Ark - 65
7 - A&M - 64
8 - Miss St - 62
9 - Missouri - 58
10 - Ole Miss - 53.5
11 - Florida - 46
12 - South Carolina - 38
13 - Kentucky - 27.5
14 - Vandy - 8.5

 

[TBtheGBwiththeTD]

I would guess LB's - 7th or so, DBs - 4th and ST - 8th

So we will drop. Probably end up around 3rd or 4th.

Im basically drooling at that thought

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I would guess LB's - 7th or so, DBs - 4th and ST - 8th

So we will drop. Probably end up around 3rd or 4th.

Im basically drooling at that thought

You might be surprised at how well we fare in special teams....

 

[Vol8188]

I would guess LB's - 7th or so, DBs - 4th and ST - 8th

So we will drop. Probably end up around 3rd or 4th.

Im basically drooling at that thought

I think your under rating our lbs. Maggitt alone makes that group top 5. JRM can play. And we've got Weatherd and Bates also.

 

[Ericvol2096]

I think your under rating our lbs. Maggitt alone makes that group top 5. JRM can play. And we've got Weatherd and Bates also.

ESPN counted Maggitt as a DE. Doubt they include him on LB.

 

[Vol8188]

ESPN counted Maggitt as a DE. Doubt they include him on LB.

Didn't see that. Thank you.

 

[Orange to the Bay]

EricVol, you're a fantastic poster...

But you're just going to give unrealistic people false hope. Us being ranked highly in the position rankings doesn't take away from the fact that we at this point still only have rawly talented players, with little experience or weight room time, nor time with technique coaching in the system. '16 will be the first year I think we see our talent coming to fruition, with actual (whew, when was the last time we could say this) depth and talented depth.

Not a "negaVol" here. Just a sensible man. We should improve next year, but we're still playing teams with more depth and seniority.

 

[livefaith]

However we end up #1. That's the proper weighting.

 

[Ericvol2096]

EricVol, you're a fantastic poster...

But you're just going to give unrealistic people false hope. Us being ranked highly in the position rankings doesn't take away from the fact that we at this point still only have rawly talented players, with little experience or weight room time, nor time with technique coaching in the system. '16 will be the first year I think we see our talent coming to fruition, with actual (whew, when was the last time we could say this) depth and talented depth.

Not a "negaVol" here. Just a sensible man. We should improve next year, but we're still playing teams with more depth and seniority.

I think we will end up in the 4-6 range when these are over with which IMO is about right. I think 9-3 is otw for Vol fans this fall.

 

[Evet Vols]

Pretty obvious - VOLS are Back!

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

EricVol, you're a fantastic poster...

But you're just going to give unrealistic people false hope. Us being ranked highly in the position rankings doesn't take away from the fact that we at this point still only have rawly talented players, with little experience or weight room time, nor time with technique coaching in the system. '16 will be the first year I think we see our talent coming to fruition, with actual (whew, when was the last time we could say this) depth and talented depth.

Not a "negaVol" here. Just a sensible man. We should improve next year, but we're still playing teams with more depth and seniority.

more like downplaying expectations in case we don't reach them. whether you like it or not, Tennessee will be as talented as EVERY team they play next season outside of Alabama. that is a FACT.

youth and inexperience are simply EXCUSES. youth and inexperience didn't stop the sophomore heavy Ohio State from beating senior/junior laden Alabama and Oregon in the playoffs. at the end of the day its about TALENT. and for the first time in over a decade, we have the TALENT to compete with anyone.

 

[ntxVOL]

All this praise is great but we must consider the source. Last year we were overlooked and under rated. This year seems just the opposite.

First of all, who really believes our QB should be ranked so highly? Yes, he has a lot of potential and a big upside but I feel this ranking is just a product of so many unknowns for everyone else and there isn't much difference between 2 and 10 on that list.

While youth isn't an excuse, our roster is still younger than our competition. As the season wears on and we have to depend on younger players to fill in, that becomes a problem for us.

Just not buying the hype from people who know little more than the average poster here. They haven't really done enough research on each team to offer any information worth giving any kind of value to.

 

[KBVol]

EricVol, you're a fantastic poster...

But you're just going to give unrealistic people false hope. Us being ranked highly in the position rankings doesn't take away from the fact that we at this point still only have rawly talented players, with little experience or weight room time, nor time with technique coaching in the system. '16 will be the first year I think we see our talent coming to fruition, with actual (whew, when was the last time we could say this) depth and talented depth.

Not a "negaVol" here. Just a sensible man. We should improve next year, but we're still playing teams with more depth and seniority.

Only "rawly talented players with little experience"? Look, I know it's a widely held opinion that we're still just a very young team relying on sophomores and incoming freshmen....however, it's just not true. We certainly have young, talented players that we'll rely on (think Hurd, Barnett, Wolf, the young freshmen DTs, etc) so I don't want to minimize that. However, when looking at who will be our starters/in our 2 deep, you see a very different picture. I've included this list in a couple of threads....


QB Dobbs- junior
C Crowder- Senior
G Jackson - RS Senior
LT Blair- RS Junior
RT Kerbyson (?) - RS Senior
WR North - Junior
WR Howard - Senior
WR Pearson - Senior (24 years old)
WR Croom - RS Junior
WR Johnson - Senior
WR Smith - RS Soph
TE Ellis - RS Senior

S Randolph - RS Senior
S McNeil - Senior
DT Williams - RS Senior
DE/LB Maggitt - RS Senior
DE Lewis - RS Junior
LB Weatherd - Senior
CB Sutton - Junior
DT OBrien - RS Junior
LB Reeves-Maybin - Junior

 

[butchna]

EricVol, you're a fantastic poster...

But you're just going to give unrealistic people false hope. Us being ranked highly in the position rankings doesn't take away from the fact that we at this point still only have rawly talented players, with little experience or weight room time, nor time with technique coaching in the system. '16 will be the first year I think we see our talent coming to fruition, with actual (whew, when was the last time we could say this) depth and talented depth.

Not a "negaVol" here. Just a sensible man. We should improve next year, but we're still playing teams with more depth and seniority.

Every year Bama signs top cornerbacks and EVERY YEAR true freshmen start at cornerback...they have depth in spades...why does this happen?

 

[ntxVOL]

Only "rawly talented players with little experience"? Look, I know it's a widely held opinion that we're still just a very young team relying on sophomores and incoming freshmen....however, it's just not true. We certainly have young, talented players that we'll rely on (think Hurd, Barnett, Wolf, the young freshmen DTs, etc) so I don't want to minimize that. However, when looking at who will be our starters/in our 2 deep, you see a very different picture. I've included this list in a couple of threads....


QB Dobbs- junior
C Crowder- Senior
G Jackson - RS Senior
LT Blair- RS Junior
RT Kerbyson (?) - RS Senior
WR North - Junior
WR Howard - Senior
WR Pearson - Senior (24 years old)
WR Croom - RS Junior
WR Johnson - Senior
WR Smith - RS Soph
TE Ellis - RS Senior

S Randolph - RS Senior
S McNeil - Senior
DT Williams - RS Senior
DE/LB Maggitt - RS Senior
DE Lewis - RS Junior
LB Weatherd - Senior
CB Sutton - Junior
DT OBrien - RS Junior
LB Reeves-Maybin - Junior

That's only half of our 2-deep. Go compare to our competition and see how we stack up. Looks like half of our 2-deep will have 0-1 year of experience. Not a good situation IMHO.

 

[KBVol]

That's only half of our 2-deep. Go compare to our competition and see how we stack up. Looks like half of our 2-deep will have 0-1 year of experience. Not a good situation IMHO.

So you just want to ignore the overwhelming number of juniors and seniors all throughout our starters on both sides of the ball? We also return more starters than any other team in the SEC.

My original point wasn't to compare us to any other team, which by the way, I think we'd compare favorably to....it was to explode the myth that all we will have are "inexperienced, raw" sophomores and true freshmen on the field. It's not true, and that's a very good thing/situation for the prospects of our season. Youth and inexperience should not be an excuse for only expecting 7 wins from this team.

 

[VeryBest]

Every year Bama signs top cornerbacks and EVERY YEAR true freshmen start at cornerback...they have depth in spades...why does this happen?

Have you seen Bamas' corners lately? Weakness on the defense.

 

[ntxVOL]

So you just want to ignore the overwhelming number of juniors and seniors all throughout our starters on both sides of the ball? We also return more starters than any other team in the SEC.

My original point wasn't to compare us to any other team, which by the way, I think we'd compare favorably to....it was to explode the myth that all we will have are "inexperienced, raw" sophomores and true freshmen on the field. It's not true, and that's a very good thing/situation for the prospects of our season. Youth and inexperience should not be an excuse for only expecting 7 wins from this team.

Yes I am going to ignore it because compared to our competition, we are still young. Do you expect these guys to play 70 snaps a game for the entire season? We still lack quality depth and we are still short on red shirts. How do you think bama continues to reload? It's because their 2nd and 3rd strings are as old as our 1st and 2s. Same for Mizzou, UGA, and UF.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

That's only half of our 2-deep. Go compare to our competition and see how we stack up. Looks like half of our 2-deep will have 0-1 year of experience. Not a good situation IMHO.

Yes I am going to ignore it because compared to our competition, we are still young.

I actually did that, a few weeks ago. There's a whole thread on the topic.* Used Georgia as the point of comparison because (a) they're a very 'steady state' team and (b) I could find a mock 2015 two-deep roster on them.

Turns out, there's not much difference at all in age or experience between the Vols and Georgia. They are a sophomore-dominated squad, just like we will be. They have juniors and seniors providing leadership, just like we will have. They have true freshmen and redshirt freshmen contributing, just like we will.

As KBVol has been telling you, we're not like we were in 2013, or even last year in 2014. Our young studs are growing up. There's now very little difference between our experience/talent levels and those of other top-tier SEC schools ('Bama aside, they're freaks on paper...but freaks that can still be beat).

* Here's the link: http://www.volnation.com/forum/tenn...-volunteers-not-young-sneaky-coach-jones.html

 

[golfballs]

Go ahead and give us the trophy :rock2:

 

[daj2576]

Nicely done, I appreciate the weightings you applied. Think they're about right, could argue for a half point more or less here or there, but that's all just fine-tuning a good job already running. Nice job.

I agree special teams need weighting. As General Neyland famously said, that's where the breaks are made. Inordinate impact on the game for the limited number of plays. I think 1.5 sounds about right.

Thanks for doing this, look forward to seeing how it plays out as ESPN finishes up their ratings.

Dave Bartoo, from CFBMatrix.com (I reference him often) sent me a graphic a couple of years ago tabulating the real impact on games per year of some of these position groups.

It was fascinating. While I don't recall the methodology exactly, what I do remember is that his numbers conclude that the QB is the most over-valued position and only accounted for 0.2+ games a year difference. An experienced field goal kicker accounted for almost +2 games a year difference.

This idea is consistent with many of the sports statistics/analytics books that I have read that say that the QB is the easiest position to overvalue due to visibility (and I would suggest the modern media narrative has a huge impact), but there are 10 other guys on the field. Those books conclude that it is incredibly hard to disentangle the performance of a solid OLine from the running back or the QB, or vice versa and this perception contributes to Vegas's sustained success in football betting.

My own personal studies have drawn a similar conclusion. When looking at 9 out of 10 national championship teams going back to 2005, each 'championship' quarterback (Tebow, Newton, Winston, etc) also had the most talented roster in the game. The only exception was Texas v. USC in 2005.

If you extrapolate that out a bit further, consider the narrative of Ohio State this year. 4th string QB? Still won a national championship. Admittedly that is a narrow anecdote but it seems to comport with the larger data analysis done from multiple angles.

 

[ntxVOL]

I actually did that, a few weeks ago. There's a whole thread on the topic.* Used Georgia as the point of comparison because (a) they're a very 'steady state' team and (b) I could find a mock 2015 two-deep roster on them.

Turns out, there's not much difference at all in age or experience between the Vols and Georgia. They are a sophomore-dominated squad, just like we will be. They have juniors and seniors providing leadership, just like we will have. They have true freshmen and redshirt freshmen contributing, just like we will.

As KBVol has been telling you, we're not like we were in 2013, or even last year in 2014. Our young studs are growing up. There's now very little difference between our experience/talent levels and those of other top-tier SEC schools ('Bama aside, they're freaks on paper...but freaks that can still be beat).

* Here's the link: http://www.volnation.com/forum/tenn...-volunteers-not-young-sneaky-coach-jones.html

Yeah but you ignored redshirts for jr/sr. Age of the roster is important when gauging depth so IMO that was a mistake and undermines the data posted in that thread.

 

[butchna]

Have you seen Bamas' corners lately? Weakness on the defense.

And they're top ranked prospects on a team never accused of lacking depth...that's an annual playoff team...just sayin.